Except for your 97% being off by roughly 21%zYou mean WW2 was a real problem? But it had a 97% survival rate. Doesn’t a high survival rate mean we should ignore it?
As Kicker would say, “let that sink in a little”.
Except for your 97% being off by roughly 21%zYou mean WW2 was a real problem? But it had a 97% survival rate. Doesn’t a high survival rate mean we should ignore it?
As Kicker would say, “let that sink in a little”.
If we are doing our favorite parts of this thread (now that we are six hundred plus pages in)....mine would be your comedy.
My my all of the Covidians are certainly triggered. It's funny.![]()
Here's is the difference, though, in risk assessment. For the disease, there is no avoiding it. The chances of you catching it in your life time are close to one hundred percent (barring of course some new vaccine breakthrough, none of which seem to be on the horizon...though globally what are we at already if you take out China....fifty percent?) The vaccine is an added roll of the die. On an individual basis, the benefit therefore depends if it reduces the risk assessment for the inevitable catching of the disease. For some people, it's obvious. For children, it isn't.That is the other side of the "no long term testing of vaccines" thing. We also have little understanding of long term consequences of CoV-2 infection. I've followed the long hauler thing since it really affects my sister. One way or another it appears that, even with pretty mild CoV-2 infections, there are effects (direct or indirect) transmitted across the blood brain barrier into the CNS, which can be accompanied by the types of tau protein tangles seen in nerodegenerative/inflammatory disorders. Long term impacts of that are, of course, unknown.
What's a Covidian? Or, more to the point, who's a Covidian?
I was just reading along the recent thread occasionally bumping out a rough spot when you brought up what looks like a misstatement about me, confirmed to some degree by your immediately skittering away from it.
You should know by now that lies about me tend to trigger me.
Grace, where is the ‘science’ in your post?Some of us do science....it's why I gave a spread...because we just don't have the hard data.
Some of us make a bunch of assumptions and come up with a radical hard number like 3 percent.
Throughout this all one side has been doing actual science and critical thinking, and the other side has been doing religion and propaganda. The funny thing about you and your ilk is that you have prided yourself on being Galileo while it is very obvious that all along you've been the church.
Yes people will listen to the president that is partly why this has drawn out so long and many have suffered because of that. Listen to the experts.
Grace, where is the ‘science’ in your post?
Sentence 1, Grace praises herself for being sciency.
Sentence 2, Grace insults someone else’s numbers, without actually discussing the computation.
Sentence 3, Grace praises herself for being sciency, and insults her opponents as religious.
Sentence 4, Grace insults her opponents again, also as religious.
Nowhere in any of that do you even begin to discuss science. Your post is nothing more than a combination of bragging and ad-hominem attacks.
Given how the CDC has been performing throughout all this, if that's where your hunch leads, your hunch is leading you to a dark dysfunctional corner. Doesn't really inspire confidence in the system.
This tired routine again.
You were the one that came out with an exact number. I did nothing of the kind. I gave a spread and qualified that it was a guestimate by people in the trenches based on flawed and faulty data. You held onto an exact number you pulled out of your ass. See the difference? Or are you going for even more intellectual bankruptcy than that you find yourself in?
p.s. at this point our side is entirely in its rights to brag...we were right...you were wrong....it wasn't even close.
Dark corner indeed. I hope you find a place where you feel less disillusioned. i mean that in a sincere way.
Public health has torn its reputation to shreds. It's produced one garbage study after another acting as a propaganda arm. It has failed to do risk assessment. It has acted in a blatant political manner. It's been repeatedly shown to be wrong. Don't feel sorry for the disillusioned. Be concerned with why public health did this and how it's ever going to fix this, particularly if in our lifetimes we need it again. It's reputation is in the toilet...if we get another 10 years down the road (as you have articulated a fear of) what do you think is going to happen?
Not sure how your original question got sucked into the over count thing. It has very little impact on the epidemiology. Fodder for rage clicking and cable news bobble heads so I guess fun to argue about. The mortality over count, however, is one I haven't seen trotted out since the bleach and bright light days.
Your question, as I took it, was whether the early rise in the case rate for vaxxed compared to unvaxxed was apparent or real. A numerical issue or reflective of the epidmiology/immunology? I thought it was an interesting question; thanks for pointing it out. Last night I pulled the case load data ("weekly update breakthoughs" folders) from the NYC site to look at it. The graph below is what i get for the change in case# (not rate) week to week during omicron in NYC. Takeaways IMO. 1) Even when viewed as straight up change in case load, vaxx holds up amazingly well, which is good. 2) omicron burns like prairie fire 3) I think the early rise in the unvaxx RATE is likely more apparent than real. The rate graphs shown earlier express the relative rates as per 100K so they are directly comparable for equivalently sized groups. But in the data set those groups are not the same size, which is of course the sampling issue that brings the denominator problem up in the first place. So to do per 100K rates you have to change the numerator to "pull" or "push" the numbers. That requires numerator shifts of different proportions between the two groups because the case count is so lower with the vaxx population. So, the way to look at the per 100K graphs is "IF there were equivalent groups of 100K, these are the estimated rates we would expect to see based on our sample". At least that's my take away. And it also emphasizes one thing I have tried to stress, which is that if you want the best estimate of VE you need to do random sampling so you can calculate odds instead of rates. The UK data is still the best AFAIK for omicron in this regard.
View attachment 12880
There is a database of all vaccinations. There is a database of all tests run. You’re describing a merged database query on a few million records. That’s been easy for decades.
"Oh Magoo, you've done it again!"Coocoo.
"Oh Magoo, you've done it again!"
I'm pretty sure the point was the Covid survival rate constantly quoted is based on deaths vs total population (WW), so comparing the WW2 deaths vs total population (WW) is equivalent.There were 2.3B people that fought in WW2? Might want to Fact Check that!
You just can’t stop making up #’s can you?
Maybe 300M Soldiers saw combat and a general estimate of 72M died.
Just stop!
I couldn't have done it with your excellent setup work.
I'm pretty sure the point was the Covid survival rate constantly quoted is based on deaths vs total population (WW), so comparing the WW2 deaths vs total population (WW) is equivalent.
2/3s approx. of the WW2 deaths were non military BTW.
Nice info here - World War II casualties - Wikipedia
The Covid Survival Rate I’ve always referred to is Cases V Deaths.I'm pretty sure the point was the Covid survival rate constantly quoted is based on deaths vs total population (WW), so comparing the WW2 deaths vs total population (WW) is equivalent.
2/3s approx. of the WW2 deaths were non military BTW.
Nice info here - World War II casualties - Wikipedia
Aren’t the “experts” the ones advising the President?Yes people will listen to the president that is partly why this has drawn out so long and many have suffered because of that. Listen to the experts.