Vaccine

EvilGoalie 21 said:
In equating immunity with prevention it is important to spell out prevention of what. Immunity comprises both short term prevention to infection as well as long term prevention of severe disease consequences. Either as a convalescent or a vaxxed invidual the short term component is on the order of 4 month to a year, and has to do with circulating antibodies titers that can vary considerably from individual to individual. The long term memory component of immunity involves a separate (but related) set of immune cell populations. In some cases this component of immunity memory can last a lifetime.

In this sense there are many parallels between omicron (with omicron perhaps more accurately called cov-3) and measles. Measles is one of the most, if not the most, infectious viruses in humans. In terms of its R number, omicron is either right behind measles or running neck in neck. It's mind blowing. Childhood vaccination against measles has two public health objectives. First, to prevent outbreaks. Second, and perhaps more importantly given the increased severity of measles in adults, vaccination induces that long lasting immune memory component. Especially if Cov-2 and its related offspring increasingly fall under selective pressure to circumvent short-term immunity, vaccination won't do much to temper community transmission. It may be a long time before we are in a position to talk about outbreaks, and who knows what flavor of C-virus we will be dealing with. But the data appears pretty strong that vaxx, particularly after the clean up on aisle 5 that attends infection, induces an extremely diverse set of long term immune memory cell populations that recognize molecular surfaces of Ace2 in a variety of conformations. That data has been linked on this thread. It can be linked again if anybody cares, which i doubt.

I think people should do what they want. But the argument for vaxxing kids as i see it parallels the situation with measles closely. the future is obviously unknowable, but it seems pretty reasonable to think at this point that the next generation will be dealing with periodically re-emergent forms of this virus for the rest of their lives. Their kids may bring it home from school to them. And each time it pops out of the woodworks who knows what it will look like. But, given what we do know, there is a choice that can hopefully give their long term immunity the broadest possible arsenal going forward.
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The argument for vaxxing kids is always dicussed in terms of risk/benefit. It's why the committees are taking their time with the U5s. Transmission comparisons between omicron and the measles are fair. Factor of 18 vs factor of 15 is pretty dang close and makes omicron very, very contagious.

I don't have to tell you the difference in outcomes between untreated measles and omicron for U5s. Unless omicron takes a hard left and presents in a more deadly manner, vaxxing based on transmissability for a variant that sidesteps immunity may not be the right thing to do.
There are going to continue to be millions of people in this country and around the world that will not ever be vaccinated. Variants will likely continue to spin for the foreseable future. By the way, 140K people died in 2018 of the measles, mostly U5s.

As you said, what the future holds, no one really knows.
 
Hüsker Dü said:
I am against government mandates, but private businesses are free to decide who gets access, right?
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Private business are free to do what they want. They will eventually succumb/make decisions based on business requirements. The labor market is already strained. The market will take care of those business. Vaccines obviously aren't preventing people from going home sick. Keep an eye on hospitals - hiring back nurses previously let go will likley be the first move, especially when vaccinated workers are still missing work. Can't you see the tide slowly turning?

We've gone from immunity/prevention to reducing hospitalization/disease to a variant that makes you sick for 5 days. What good are mandates if it doesn't keep people from going home? Besides, we have these really cool N95s that healthcare workers wear all day... isn't that good for something?
 
espola said:
In some cases, incentives are more effective than mandates.

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Messing with fire if you take away this type of access to canadians this time of the year.. Thoughtful incentives would likely have a high degree of success in this country.
 
what-happened said:
Messing with fire if you take away this type of access to canadians this time of the year.. Thoughtful incentives would likely have a high degree of success in this country.
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Restricting access to pork would be problem --

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Grace T. said:
They can get the same protection through natural immune exposure though, which for them carries very little risk. All of them, vaxxed and unvaxxed, will be exposed to it at some point. Further there doesn’t appear to be a whole lot of benefit to boosting them.
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Vaxx has been demonstrated to provide extremely broad conformational coverage to S in terms of immune memory. The relevant data has been discussed here. So, given the current state of data, the potential alterations to S that may arise in future variants are better offset through vaxx . There is also data that Infection, followed by vaxx, maybe a particularly robust long term memory combination. This may be because the germinal centers that are established through infection allow the long term T and B cell populations to proliferate a few more times before becoming quiescent. The reason for writing this is because, if a parent is thinking about vaxx for their kid, and they get omicron, which almost everybody will, it is the perfect time given what we know. If people don't like that idea, think it is stupid, whatever, then don't do it.

Grace T. said:
you also seem to suggest that it’s a doomsday scenario that they’ll be repeatedly exposed to this virus including by their kids.
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No. Doomsday is all the wailing and gnashing of teeth surrounding policy. People said all the same stuff in 1918, just the political poles were reversed. They were wrong then and they are wrong now. I believe it was you talking about lessons learned. Anyway, a better term for what is going on with these emergent C-viruses is koyannisqatsi. Gven the zoonotic populations of C-virus that are being established around the globe the rate at which descendents of this virus will re-emerge in novel recombined forms will likely increase. SARS, MERS, Cov-2 and now possibly Cov-3 within the span of several decades. Looking forward 50 years there will be more.

Grace T. said:
There is nothing special about this coronavirus (unless you are somehow suggesting it has been engineered to by a doomsday weapon constantly mutating into bad forms).
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The fact that new variants arise and can be selected for has nothing to do with its origin. If it came from a lab or from bats or pangolins or whatever that would still be true. There are many unique features about this c-virus. Having posted about it as much as you do I'm a bit surprised. The way in which it activates S has novel features, which is really the only thing that could have been conceivably engineered. The flexibility in terms of pathway choice for how it enters cells is much more sophisticated than what we saw with SARs or MERs, part of which probably contributes to cell fusigenic properties underlying the pathogenesis of COVID19. And the replicative potential of omicron is unprecedented for a c-virus, which remains to be figured out.

Grace T. said:
There are 4 other freely circulating corona viruses. There’s the flu. There’s rsv which hospitalized more kids ever year than the corona virus. Then there’s the adeno and enters viruses. I’ve come close to being killed not just by covid but by a simple rhino virus that developed into a drug resistant sinus infection. The most disgusting illness I’ve ever had was an adeno virus which not only gave me a respiratory infection but secondary bronchitis, pink eye and intestinal problems. It’s part of the human condition.Unless you somehow believe this thing was made to be different, it will join the long line of illness that periodically goes Darwin on our species every year. Part of what made this so horrible, like small pox to the Inca or measles to the Hawaiians, was that it was Novel to our immune systems.
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Not sure what your point is. Of course we were immunologically naieve to this virus; it was emergent. That's pretty obvious. I think what you are saying is that this virus will turn into another evolutionarily stable common cold C-virus. Reasonably steady state and seasonal. We will balance with it and it will balance with us. That is of course to be expected as the pandemic winds down; case load under that steady state will be an important factor. What I'm speaking to is novel variants emerging from resevoirs 5, 10, 20, 50 years down the line. The properties and virulence of those emergent strains are impossible to predict. But as long as such emergent viruses remain Ace2 directed, as of right now vaccination appears to provide the broadest long term immunological insurance policy.
 
EvilGoalie 21 said:
But as long as such emergent viruses remain Ace2 directed, as of right now vaccination appears to provide the broadest long term immunological insurance policy.
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Time will tell I suppose. Therapeutics are showing some promise as are trials with repurposed drugs. Full court press really. Besides, many providers have been doing off label for some time. If variants continue to degrade in disease and mandates die on the vine, vaccination will be even less appealing to those not vaccinated (for better or for worse).
 
what-happened said:
The argument for vaxxing kids is always dicussed in terms of risk/benefit. It's why the committees are taking their time with the U5s. Transmission comparisons between omicron and the measles are fair. Factor of 18 vs factor of 15 is pretty dang close and makes omicron very, very contagious.

I don't have to tell you the difference in outcomes between untreated measles and omicron for U5s. Unless omicron takes a hard left and presents in a more deadly manner, vaxxing based on transmissability for a variant that sidesteps immunity may not be the right thing to do.
There are going to continue to be millions of people in this country and around the world that will not ever be vaccinated. Variants will likely continue to spin for the foreseable future. By the way, 140K people died in 2018 of the measles, mostly U5s.

As you said, what the future holds, no one really knows.
Click to expand...

Sadly, as I understand it much of the mortality associated measles in the very young occurs due to poor health care and, even in the absence of vaccination, could be offset. With respect to Cov transmissibility, the short term humoral component of immunity has largely already been sidestepped although that wrestling match will continue. Some aspects of the future are more knowable than others. The possibility of novel zoonotic C-viruses emerging over the coming decades would appear to have gone up considerably. The long term memory component of immunity is highly relevant to those.
 
EvilGoalie 21 said:
Vaxx has been demonstrated to provide extremely broad conformational coverage to S in terms of immune memory. The relevant data has been discussed here. So, given the current state of data, the potential alterations to S that may arise in future variants are better offset through vaxx . There is also data that Infection, followed by vaxx, maybe a particularly robust long term memory combination. This may be because the germinal centers that are established through infection allow the long term T and B cell populations to proliferate a few more times before becoming quiescent. The reason for writing this is because, if a parent is thinking about vaxx for their kid, and they get omicron, which almost everybody will, it is the perfect time given what we know. If people don't like that idea, think it is stupid, whatever, then don't do it.



No. Doomsday is all the wailing and gnashing of teeth surrounding policy. People said all the same stuff in 1918, just the political poles were reversed. They were wrong then and they are wrong now. I believe it was you talking about lessons learned. Anyway, a better term for what is going on with these emergent C-viruses is koyannisqatsi. Gven the zoonotic populations of C-virus that are being established around the globe the rate at which descendents of this virus will re-emerge in novel recombined forms will likely increase. SARS, MERS, Cov-2 and now possibly Cov-3 within the span of several decades. Looking forward 50 years there will be more.



The fact that new variants arise and can be selected for has nothing to do with its origin. If it came from a lab or from bats or pangolins or whatever that would still be true. There are many unique features about this c-virus. Having posted about it as much as you do I'm a bit surprised. The way in which it activates S has novel features, which is really the only thing that could have been conceivably engineered. The flexibility in terms of pathway choice for how it enters cells is much more sophisticated than what we saw with SARs or MERs, part of which probably contributes to cell fusigenic properties underlying the pathogenesis of COVID19. And the replicative potential of omicron is unprecedented for a c-virus, which remains to be figured out.



Not sure what your point is. Of course we were immunologically naieve to this virus; it was emergent. That's pretty obvious. I think what you are saying is that this virus will turn into another evolutionarily stable common cold C-virus. Reasonably steady state and seasonal. We will balance with it and it will balance with us. That is of course to be expected as the pandemic winds down; case load under that steady state will be an important factor. What I'm speaking to is novel variants emerging from resevoirs 5, 10, 20, 50 years down the line. The properties and virulence of those emergent strains are impossible to predict. But as long as such emergent viruses remain Ace2 directed, as of right now vaccination appears to provide the broadest long term immunological insurance policy.
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I’d just point out that’s no different, including the zoonotic reserve, than the flu. Same risk to society. Same danger.

further, eventually, they’ll solve the vaccine issue..which is still in its toddlerhood (the tech even through the failures of the vaccine having grown leaps and bounds)
 
Lausd is suspending all sports for at least 1 week. Cif meeting next week to discuss how to handle. La county health might follow suit for private and religious schools and other schools districts. Unclear if this will extend to club sports.
 
So many are hypnotized this morning. Enter today with caution, kindness & empathy towards those who got played. Step #1. Admit you got played like Geraldo, go eat some pie and come back and tell us all how embarrassed you feel about yourself. Do it now and the scales will be lifted off your eyes. Trust me on this. Or, continue to get all your information from the source.

According to all these news outlets, no evidence of Mass Formation Psychosis according to Reuters, AP, NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN, MSNBC, CNBC, USA Today, The New York Times, Los Angeles Times, New Yorker, The Washington Post, Star Tribune (Minneapolis), Chicago Tribune, Google, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram.
 
Grace T. said:
Lausd is suspending all sports for at least 1 week. Cif meeting next week to discuss how to handle. La county health might follow suit for private and religious schools and other schools districts. Unclear if this will extend to club sports.
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Are there any restrictions on club sports? Of course, with many clubs using public school facilities, they will get suspended as well.

This can't be good for Santa Clara County. Hey @dad4, do you know how SC county compares to LA in terms of cases? I have to think we'll hit this at some point.
 
I have a few observations from our trip to FL I thought I'd share. I was in Fort Lauderdale.

Masks were optional inside. Some establishments appeared to require masks for employees but others definitely did not. There were still a significant number of people that wore masks inside stores - maybe about 1/3 or less. The bartender at the one spot we went to said a popular restaurant up the street couldn't open because they couldn't get workers. The place we went to twice on the beach was full. We sat outside at the bar both times and all the employees wore masks.

The flights were interesting. I have a lot of compassion for the flight attendants. Enforcing the mask policy obviously sucks. My wife was flying on business so she was up in first class. The guy next to her wasn't keeping his mask and/or didn't cover his nose. He kept asking for water so he could be actively drinking. She didn't complain about it but the flight attendant ended up giving my wife a $200 flight credit. My daughter and I sat on aisle seats across from each other. She had a woman and her son next to her. The woman was vaping and got caught. No big scene but the flight attendant told her the captain may put her on a no-fly list. I'm pretty sure the general population has moved toward the crazy side of the continuum since the pandemic. I had an empty middle seat - one of the few empty seats on the flight. I attribute that to my good living and virtue. My family does not agree.
 
kickingandscreaming said:
I have a few observations from our trip to FL I thought I'd share. I was in Fort Lauderdale.

Masks were optional inside. Some establishments appeared to require masks for employees but others definitely did not. There were still a significant number of people that wore masks inside stores - maybe about 1/3 or less. The bartender at the one spot we went to said a popular restaurant up the street couldn't open because they couldn't get workers. The place we went to twice on the beach was full. We sat outside at the bar both times and all the employees wore masks.

The flights were interesting. I have a lot of compassion for the flight attendants. Enforcing the mask policy obviously sucks. My wife was flying on business so she was up in first class. The guy next to her wasn't keeping his mask and/or didn't cover his nose. He kept asking for water so he could be actively drinking. She didn't complain about it but the flight attendant ended up giving my wife a $200 flight credit. My daughter and I sat on aisle seats across from each other. She had a woman and her son next to her. The woman was vaping and got caught. No big scene but the flight attendant told her the captain may put her on a no-fly list. I'm pretty sure the general population has moved toward the crazy side of the continuum since the pandemic. I had an empty middle seat - one of the few empty seats on the flight. I attribute that to my good living and virtue. My family does not agree.
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Vaping in flight? Geez-O, addicted much? She doesn’t know they have gum for that I suppose. People have gone wacko with their hostile feelings of self-entitlement. Courtesy is absent.
 
kickingandscreaming said:
I have a few observations from our trip to FL I thought I'd share. I was in Fort Lauderdale.

Masks were optional inside. Some establishments appeared to require masks for employees but others definitely did not. There were still a significant number of people that wore masks inside stores - maybe about 1/3 or less. The bartender at the one spot we went to said a popular restaurant up the street couldn't open because they couldn't get workers. The place we went to twice on the beach was full. We sat outside at the bar both times and all the employees wore masks.

The flights were interesting. I have a lot of compassion for the flight attendants. Enforcing the mask policy obviously sucks. My wife was flying on business so she was up in first class. The guy next to her wasn't keeping his mask and/or didn't cover his nose. He kept asking for water so he could be actively drinking. She didn't complain about it but the flight attendant ended up giving my wife a $200 flight credit. My daughter and I sat on aisle seats across from each other. She had a woman and her son next to her. The woman was vaping and got caught. No big scene but the flight attendant told her the captain may put her on a no-fly list. I'm pretty sure the general population has moved toward the crazy side of the continuum since the pandemic. I had an empty middle seat - one of the few empty seats on the flight. I attribute that to my good living and virtue. My family does not agree.
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Oh, one more thing. There was a family two rows in front of me - two adults and two children around 2-3 (girl) and 5 (boy). One of them wasn't keeping their mask on prior to the flight and the flight attendant let them know they would be removed from the plane if the mask didn't stay on. Noone was removed but it was a constant battle through the flight. Throughout it all, the parents were calm, or comatose. The girls had high-functioning lungs and exercised them liberally. She also coughed a lot. In the row between us, there were two men on the aisle. One had a bio-tech company hat that had "Covid Response Team" on it. They were none too pleased with what was going on in front of them - lots of head shaking and hand waving.
 
kickingandscreaming said:
Are there any restrictions on club sports? Of course, with many clubs using public school facilities, they will get suspended as well.

This can't be good for Santa Clara County. Hey @dad4, do you know how SC county compares to LA in terms of cases? I have to think we'll hit this at some point.
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SCC is lagging. Our hospital peak will be later and lower than LA. Our curve is flatter and more of us are vaccinated.

Either way, there is not much time left in Omicron, even for SCC. Peak seems to be when you reach 4-6X previous case peak. SCC is at about 2X previous case peak. Which means we have one or two doublings left. 3-7 days. Then things start to drop.

I don’t expect a major hit to sports up here. Maybe the indoor sports: futsal, basketball, and volleyball.
 
kickingandscreaming said:
I have a few observations from our trip to FL I thought I'd share. I was in Fort Lauderdale.

Masks were optional inside. Some establishments appeared to require masks for employees but others definitely did not. There were still a significant number of people that wore masks inside stores - maybe about 1/3 or less. The bartender at the one spot we went to said a popular restaurant up the street couldn't open because they couldn't get workers. The place we went to twice on the beach was full. We sat outside at the bar both times and all the employees wore masks.

The flights were interesting. I have a lot of compassion for the flight attendants. Enforcing the mask policy obviously sucks. My wife was flying on business so she was up in first class. The guy next to her wasn't keeping his mask and/or didn't cover his nose. He kept asking for water so he could be actively drinking. She didn't complain about it but the flight attendant ended up giving my wife a $200 flight credit. My daughter and I sat on aisle seats across from each other. She had a woman and her son next to her. The woman was vaping and got caught. No big scene but the flight attendant told her the captain may put her on a no-fly list. I'm pretty sure the general population has moved toward the crazy side of the continuum since the pandemic. I had an empty middle seat - one of the few empty seats on the flight. I attribute that to my good living and virtue. My family does not agree.
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Horrible experience for all involved. Vap is poison and I can;t believe someone is making a buck of that poison. Vap lungs are gnarly....
 
dad4 said:
SCC is lagging. Our hospital peak will be later and lower than LA. Our curve is flatter and more of us are vaccinated.

Either way, there is not much time left in Omicron, even for SCC. Peak seems to be when you reach 4-6X previous case peak. SCC is at about 2X previous case peak. Which means we have one or two doublings left. 3-7 days. Then things start to drop.

I don’t expect a major hit to sports up here. Maybe the indoor sports: futsal, basketball, and volleyball.
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Same in our neck of the woods. For us folks just aren't comfortable with indoor sports. It has less to do with any restrictions. Our futsal league starts this weekend spectator-less. I knew I should've bought a veo.

Last week schools were a bit rough as so many kids tested positive, but so far our public schools have been resilient.
 
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