Vaccine

dad4 said:
Not just CA. Nationwide for mid January. We are estimated at about 3500 daily omicron cases, doubling twice per week. That trend hits 4 million daily around Jan 20. Something will change before then, but it gives you a sense of timing.

Previous waves slowed down as the recovered population got larger. With the faster growth rate, there are not many recovered people to slow it down. The current trend hits 4 million daily before it hits 20 million total infected. That’s not enough to be much of a speed bump.

The more I think about it, the less I like the odds on that Jan 15 end date for masks.
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You still believe the models?
 
Grace T. said:
I thought the Matt Yglesias and others calling for the seizure of the Pfizer patent covered that. I think most people got that.

High inflation (which we know is happening), sluggish economy
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Employment numbers are good, industrial production is up.

"In October, manufacturing output rose 1.2 percent, reaching its highest level since March 2019. The indexes for both durable and nondurable goods advanced 1.3 percent, while the index for other manufacturing (logging and publishing) fell 1.5 percent. Within durables, the largest increase was posted by motor vehicles and parts, while a strike at a major manufacturer contributed to a decrease of 1.3 percent for machinery. Within nondurables, the index for petroleum and coal products moved up 5.0 percent; gains of more than 1 percent were also recorded by printing and support and by chemicals. "

www.federalreserve.gov

Federal Reserve Board - Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
 
espola said:
Employment numbers are good, industrial production is up.

"In October, manufacturing output rose 1.2 percent, reaching its highest level since March 2019. The indexes for both durable and nondurable goods advanced 1.3 percent, while the index for other manufacturing (logging and publishing) fell 1.5 percent. Within durables, the largest increase was posted by motor vehicles and parts, while a strike at a major manufacturer contributed to a decrease of 1.3 percent for machinery. Within nondurables, the index for petroleum and coal products moved up 5.0 percent; gains of more than 1 percent were also recorded by printing and support and by chemicals. "

www.federalreserve.gov

Federal Reserve Board - Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
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Employment numbers are only good because of the worker shortage and it isn't going to translate into higher real wages if inflation outpaces employment compensation growth (which so far it has). Yeah, I had been more confident for the production numbers that we might be experiencing only an inflationary event, but if that were the case, holiday numbers shouldn't be disappointing.
 
dad4 said:
Not sure why you want to. Is your goal to trick other people into not getting vaccinated?

Most people can’t parse the difference between the true version and the false version of that sentence.

( Vaccinated people can be superspreaders.) ( Vaccines can make people superspreaders. )
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Well it was sarcasm but if people think "can" means "make" we are doomed as a society. Kind of like how the fear mongers labeled everything as deaths from Covid when many were deaths with Covid.
 
Grace T. said:
Trust the experts dad4...if this holds up the vaccines don't much.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1470387150936059910
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Seeing more reports saying the same thing.

The trend is shots/boosters wont help vs omicron. And in a sense that isn't surprising. Why? Those vaxxes were produced to fight ALPHA.

Probably why we don't use last yrs flu vaxx to fight this years variant.

On the brighter side and it still is very early....but it appears this is a much milder variant.
 
Grace T. said:
Employment numbers are only good because of the worker shortage and it isn't going to translate into higher real wages if inflation outpaces employment compensation growth (which so far it has). Yeah, I had been more confident for the production numbers that we might be experiencing only an inflationary event, but if that were the case, holiday numbers shouldn't be disappointing.
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"Shouldn't"?
 
Bubba said:
Was watching Bill Maher on with Chris C on CNN , not a fan of Chris C and Bill Maher seems more like a old time liberal.
But Bill was correct when he said "We were sick before we were sick" . 80 percent of deaths were people who were obese and with high blood pressure and diabetes or other as I call them first world diseases. God forbid someone gets told to lose weight, eat better and exercise . We promote plus size models now.

I pop in on this thread once and while so sorry if I am repeating something already hashed out . Writing this quickly as I prepare to double mask to pickup 3 large Fraps and a box of dozen doughnuts for our 3 person office
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If you aren't keeping up with this thread, it's a sign you are sane.

I don't believe this is brought up enough. IIRC it's been over a year and a half since there was very strong evidence that obesity played a large role in individual risk. It's been verified through multiple studies now. I marvel at how willingly some will ask others to get a vaccine or wear a mask, but not lose some weight and get some exercise. Our "protection" of children during COVID has raised childhood obesity by over 15% (19% to 22%). How many years of future life will be lost from that? Of course, there's also the deterioration of health due to obesity. It's a shame what adults have done to children during this pandemic.

"The percentage of obese children in the United States has increased from 19% pre-pandemic to 22%, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."

www.phillyvoice.com

Childhood obesity has spiked during the pandemic and may lead to heart issues

Excess abdominal fat likely contributes to cardiovascular problems in children, researchers found
www.phillyvoice.com www.phillyvoice.com
 
kickingandscreaming said:
If you aren't keeping up with this thread, it's a sign you are sane.

I don't believe this is brought up enough. IIRC it's been over a year and a half since there was very strong evidence that obesity played a large role in individual risk. It's been verified through multiple studies now. I marvel at how willingly some will ask others to get a vaccine or wear a mask, but not lose some weight and get some exercise. Our "protection" of children during COVID has raised childhood obesity by over 15% (19% to 22%). How many years of future life will be lost from that? Of course, there's also the deterioration of health due to obesity. It's a shame what adults have done to children during this pandemic.

"The percentage of obese children in the United States has increased from 19% pre-pandemic to 22%, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."

www.phillyvoice.com

Childhood obesity has spiked during the pandemic and may lead to heart issues

Excess abdominal fat likely contributes to cardiovascular problems in children, researchers found
www.phillyvoice.com www.phillyvoice.com
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hey they should have made us all jump on our goobleboxes....would have been great for the environment too and we can power the great battery with our teenyverse

"it's just slavery with extra steps!"

 
dad4 said:
The higher effectiveness for HPV vaccine makes personal choice more feasable. A family really can protect their daughter by getting the shot.

The catch is, it’s really hard to ask a father to view his 14 year old daughter as someone who might be having sex. A good friend of mine in high school got cervical cancer before the vaccine was developed. She was in her 20s, but she was active in high school. Had the vaccine been around, the dad probably would have declined it and explained that his daughter was a good Catholic girl. Good kid, good dad. Just not talking on that one issue.

A HPV vaccine mandate might help kids like that. At a minimum, the 14 year old kid should be able to get the HPV shot without parental permission. No need for teenagers to get cancer just because dad can’t handle who his kid really is.
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I marvel that there are people who believe the drive that has kept our species around for many thousands of years will somehow not be present in their child. It's not "who his kid really is", it's "who we really are". We are f'ers ;)
 
dad4 said:
They know the symptoms are milder than Alpha or Delta.

The problem is the doubling time for cases. Omicron in Europe is doubling every 2-3 days instead of every 2-3 weeks.

This means the peak will get compressed into a much smaller time. If it ends up being a normal flu season, compressed into 2 weeks, that’s a real problem. Our health care system cannot handle an entire flu season compressed into 2 weeks.

UK is currently giving us a preview of what this means. We should know by early January whether it is a problem. If NHS has trouble keeping up, expect Watfly to be right that the CA mask mandate gets extended.
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