The vaccine "solution" isn't looking promising due to variants - and that's an understatement. Given the breakthrough cases we are seeing, it's also laughable that anyone thinks we can keep the latest variant with an R > the delta variant out of the US. It's just fantasy. If I had to guess, masks will be the way in Santa Clara county well into the future. I find it interesting what a different "feel" it was in San Diego a few weeks back compared to Santa Clara. Here, you see the examples of fear every time you take a walk - kids masked while outside, people walking off the sidewalk and onto the road when passing others. It's sad. I feel fortunate that we don't have a young child in school, or we would definitely move elsewhere. The constant fear is just not a healthy environment.
I'll make some predictions. This is all assuming we have a moderate omicron outbreak that does indeed evade the vaccine and pushes out the delta:
-the US economy is already teetering. Even in red states, the supply disruptions will be enough to push things over. Supply chains which have already been stretched tumble and we go into full scale 1970s stagflation
-The red states will try and ignore what's happening but the Ds will feel pressure from certain groups (public health/teachers unions) to do something. Since Biden really is captured to a large degree by these interests groups, he may even be able to use the momentum to push through a modified BBB bill which will exacerbate the stagflation problems. Biden admin, already been thrashed by the federal courts on the vaccine mandates, will go into full conflict mode with the red states
-The blue states under pressure from these groups will put in place some limited restrictions, the harshest affecting kids, including in some major cities and some blue states school closures. We will have a massive mental health breakdown in blue states as many people are close to the edge (ditto for Europe which will see resistance which dwarfs that currently happening).
-The middle 1/3 of the public really doesn't care about policies and just wants to see it over. They rightfully or wrongly blamed Trump for everything that went wrong in 2020 and rightfully or wrongly blamed Biden for not getting better results (even though the Delta was beyond his control). The Ds get hammered in 2022, potentially going into the wilderness for a generation (depending what other things lie down the road for the Rs)
-The vaccine solution is dead given they've gone all in on boosters. A large segment of the public will not tolerate 4 shots.
My caveat is all this assumes an omicron outbreak at least as bad as the Delta (which we don't know if it will push out the Delta and if it's more serious). Different result if it's more deadly and people (including kids) start dying in mass (in which case I think the public will tolerate more restrictions). Different result if early indications that it's a more mild cold take place (in which case I think even the Ds won't listen to the teacher's unions given what happened in Virginia...you already saw the split in the morning conference with Biden and Fauci....if it comes to it I think Biden cuts Fauci loose before the elections).