Vaccine

The veterans study is getting a lot of play in the media. The only really thing we can conclude is that there's a severe decline in the efficacy of all 3 unboosted vax (J&J being the most severe close to completely worthless) against symptomatic infection. The study didn't reach a conclusion on whether that decline is due to the Delta or because as the Israeli studies suggest the vaccine is declining in efficacy over time.

It's not enough to reach a conclusion, but it's another tick in favor that the vaccines (unless you are going to mandate boosters) won't get us to herd immunity, unless you are prepared to mandate boosters. As a policy matter we are rapidly heading to mandate boosters (and then the question is how long is boosted immunity going to be and if you are going to keep mandating it) or just accept this is going to keep spreading. As dad4 would point out, that leaves a substantial number of elderly that remain vulnerable (since efficacy in that age group against severe disease also seems to have declined), but the next best hope for that seems to be the boosters (which most first world countries seem to be doing but we don't yet have a lot of data for) and pills (which the health authorities at this point really need to fast track...why have those hearings been delayed as long as they have????)



 
The veterans study is getting a lot of play in the media. The only really thing we can conclude is that there's a severe decline in the efficacy of all 3 unboosted vax (J&J being the most severe close to completely worthless) against symptomatic infection. The study didn't reach a conclusion on whether that decline is due to the Delta or because as the Israeli studies suggest the vaccine is declining in efficacy over time.

It's not enough to reach a conclusion, but it's another tick in favor that the vaccines (unless you are going to mandate boosters) won't get us to herd immunity, unless you are prepared to mandate boosters. As a policy matter we are rapidly heading to mandate boosters (and then the question is how long is boosted immunity going to be and if you are going to keep mandating it) or just accept this is going to keep spreading. As dad4 would point out, that leaves a substantial number of elderly that remain vulnerable (since efficacy in that age group against severe disease also seems to have declined), but the next best hope for that seems to be the boosters (which most first world countries seem to be doing but we don't yet have a lot of data for) and pills (which the health authorities at this point really need to fast track...why have those hearings been delayed as long as they have????)



Pills to the rescue. Amazon pharmacy delivers to your door next or same day.
 
Pills to the rescue. Amazon pharmacy delivers to your door next or same day.

Yeah, but the FDA is really slow walking it. If it wasn't Pfizer I wouldn't be confident of approval at all. I'm a little surprised, for example, AZ was never approved and Novavax still hasn't been (which would solve a part of the reluctance to vaccinate issue as some people are just scared of the mRNA vaccines).
 
Yeah, but the FDA is really slow walking it. If it wasn't Pfizer I wouldn't be confident of approval at all. I'm a little surprised, for example, AZ was never approved and Novavax still hasn't been (which would solve a part of the reluctance to vaccinate issue as some people are just scared of the mRNA vaccines).
Another panel meets at the end of this month to review the Merck data. EUA will likely soon follow. Pfizer will be next in line. The US government has already penned a deal with Merck. The FDA needs to rubberstamp the pills.

Pills will be a game changer for the medical community. They don't carry the same stigma as the vaccines and are so much easier to administer. Pills still carry a stigma but not the divisive one the vaccines have. Silly if you think about it. The tech in the pfizer pill is newish as well but no one will complain. Their will not be mandate for a therapuetic. Jus that thought alone wil drive people to get it. Plenty of $$ to be made..
 
The veterans study is getting a lot of play in the media. The only really thing we can conclude is that there's a severe decline in the efficacy of all 3 unboosted vax (J&J being the most severe close to completely worthless) against symptomatic infection. The study didn't reach a conclusion on whether that decline is due to the Delta or because as the Israeli studies suggest the vaccine is declining in efficacy over time.

It's not enough to reach a conclusion, but it's another tick in favor that the vaccines (unless you are going to mandate boosters) won't get us to herd immunity, unless you are prepared to mandate boosters. As a policy matter we are rapidly heading to mandate boosters (and then the question is how long is boosted immunity going to be and if you are going to keep mandating it) or just accept this is going to keep spreading. As dad4 would point out, that leaves a substantial number of elderly that remain vulnerable (since efficacy in that age group against severe disease also seems to have declined), but the next best hope for that seems to be the boosters (which most first world countries seem to be doing but we don't yet have a lot of data for) and pills (which the health authorities at this point really need to fast track...why have those hearings been delayed as long as they have????)



I have to think enthusiasm for boosters will wane and they'll be taken at about the same level as the flu shot. Is there any reason to think otherwise? The good news is that maybe in a year or two children can move about without masks. So, we can look forward to that.
 
Age corrected data for overall covid deaths:


1Mississippi347355
2Texas261312
3Alabama315310
4Oklahoma288295
5Louisiana282293
6Tennessee283286
7New Jersey295284
7New York299284
9Arkansas284275
9Nevada260275
11Georgia240274
12District of Columbia226267
13South Carolina263256
13North Dakota267256
15Kentucky247250
16Arizona262249
16Indiana244249
18South Dakota262246
19Rhode Island269238
20Missouri245234


Of the 20 worst states, 16 fall into the “mask optional, vaccine optional, reopen early” camp.

Three of the other four are East coast states which got infected early and returned known covid patients to nursing homes.
Lotta red there.
 
Why do you assume that vaccinations is either 0% or 100% effective?

You have plenty of evidence that the actual answer is in the middle. You are well aware that the vaccine reduces but does not eliminate risks from covid. Yet you insist on putting forward the above argument, despite knowing that is is false.
Ignorance is a lack of knowledge, stupidity is knowing better but preceding anyways.
 
Lotta red there.

Like dad4 said, 16 out of twenty were non-mandate/mask optional.

it was also mentioned that the areas above are in the higher BMI tiers… Well, 16 out of twenty of them.

If there are ‘age-adjusted’ numbers (still interested in that definition), shouldn’t we also be able to derive BMI adjusted numbers.

Since we already know age and BMI are the greatest risk factors for hospitalizations and deaths, Why can’t we back both of those population driven factors out and finally see something about policy impacts? Assuming that hospitalizations and deaths are the bar… not zero sniffles.

I know some will argue about seasonality of the sample window, regional variants, vaccination rates, population density, etc…Kinda like we argue about ECNL club rankings mid season due to strength of schedule in other threads…but at the end of the day, don’t we really want to know what works so we can actually do a cost/benefit analysis?

(We don’t yet fully know the costs, nor can we measure the benefits)
 
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