Vaccine

This is probably a minority opinion, but I don't think the results yesterday are necessarily a referendum on Biden, so Republicans shouldn't feel too smug about the wins. I believe it was actually the Democrat candidates that were the problem. If McAullife didn't say that parents shouldn't have a say in what schools teach he likely wins (CNN kept saying his comments were taken out of context but he doubled down on those comments on Meet the Press). I also think voters didn't appreciate his race baiting tactics either. Murphy surprisingly almost lost (yes, I'm conceding this election) in large part to his handling of the pandemic, in particular the nursing home debacle.

Disagree here. The exit surveys show that the economy was a close second to schools. Virginia has been hit especially hard by the labor, supply shortages and inflation. We can debate the amount of control Biden had over these things (my position is marginal...could have made it better but a lot of it was baked in). While it wasn't a referendum on Biden, Biden and his popularity (or lack there of) certainly did act as an anchor on McAullife. McAullife was brought down by a combination of a bad campaign with bad positions that angered parents, parents anger at the public schools, the fact that it's (still) not over (for which Biden rightly or wrong is getting the blame), and the economy (for which Biden rightly or wrongly is getting the blame)
 
Further note that after all this time they have not found where exactly the virus came from if natural. The bats in question are not native to the area around Wuhan where the virus started.

Re the bats: In the natural derivation scenario, the bats would have infected pangolins as an intermediate host at a site other than Wuhan (southern Asia, Africa, etc), leading to a co-infection cycle of bat and pangolin C-viruses within the same animals. Scales from these pangolins, or possibly live animals, were then transported to markets in Wuhan where CoV-2 made the jump. Genome sequence comparisons support the idea there are segments of both pangolin and bat C-virus present in CoV-2, suggesting recombination between the two viral genomes occurred. Such recombination events are hardwired into the the C-virus replicative cycle and are part of the reason this group of viruses can evolve so quickly. Whether these recombination events occurred naturally at a site other than Wuhan or as part of a laboratory study conducted in Wuhan is an unresolved question. But whether the bats are native to Wuhan does not weigh in on it directly. A thing to keep in mind is that, no matter the sequence of events in this particular case, CoV-2 could quite readily have arisen through a relatively well understood natural process. As humans come into new contact with co-evolved natural host-virus relationships around the globe, some virologists are predicting that we will be seeing more of these zoonotic outbreaks in the immediate future.
 
So racist in fact the also voted for a black woman to be Lt Gov and a hispanic to be AG.
The token Republican on the CNN election coverage attempted to make that point, but was soundly ridiculed with token examples of dog whistling. The left is all about form over substance.

Lt. Gov Winsome Sears is an incredible American success story. A former Marine she was born in Jamaica and came here with her father who allegedly came with only a $1.75 in his pocket. She barely got a mention on MSM last night, and nothing about her incredible story.
 
Lt. Gov Winsome Sears is an incredible American success story. A former Marine she was born in Jamaica and came here with her father who allegedly came with only a $1.75 in his pocket. She barely got a mention on MSM last night, and nothing about her incredible story.
If there were a D by her name they would be tearfully explaining to everyone what an amazing story that is.

But since the press by and large are all very liberal, they don't like that kind of American success story.

And of course they are amazed when people don't want their form of liberalism, and they chalk up resistance to it to be racist in nature. I mean what other reason could a person have for not voting for McCaulife?
 
Disagree here. The exit surveys show that the economy was a close second to schools. Virginia has been hit especially hard by the labor, supply shortages and inflation. We can debate the amount of control Biden had over these things (my position is marginal...could have made it better but a lot of it was baked in). While it wasn't a referendum on Biden, Biden and his popularity (or lack there of) certainly did act as an anchor on McAullife. McAullife was brought down by a combination of a bad campaign with bad positions that angered parents, parents anger at the public schools, the fact that it's (still) not over (for which Biden rightly or wrong is getting the blame), and the economy (for which Biden rightly or wrongly is getting the blame)
IMO the economy made it close. Education determined the winner. I think were basically saying the same thing.
 
If there were a D by her name they would be tearfully explaining to everyone what an amazing story that is.

But since the press by and large are all very liberal, they don't like that kind of American success story.

And of course they are amazed when people don't want their form of liberalism, and they chalk up resistance to it to be racist in nature. I mean what other reason could a person have for not voting for McCaulife?
 
Re the bats: In the natural derivation scenario, the bats would have infected pangolins as an intermediate host at a site other than Wuhan (southern Asia, Africa, etc), leading to a co-infection cycle of bat and pangolin C-viruses within the same animals. Scales from these pangolins, or possibly live animals, were then transported to markets in Wuhan where CoV-2 made the jump. Genome sequence comparisons support the idea there are segments of both pangolin and bat C-virus present in CoV-2, suggesting recombination between the two viral genomes occurred. Such recombination events are hardwired into the the C-virus replicative cycle and are part of the reason this group of viruses can evolve so quickly. Whether these recombination events occurred naturally at a site other than Wuhan or as part of a laboratory study conducted in Wuhan is an unresolved question. But whether the bats are native to Wuhan does not weigh in on it directly. A thing to keep in mind is that, no matter the sequence of events in this particular case, CoV-2 could quite readily have arisen through a relatively well understood natural process. As humans come into new contact with co-evolved natural host-virus relationships around the globe, some virologists are predicting that we will be seeing more of these zoonotic outbreaks in the immediate future.

other are some sciency technical reasons why we should be suspicious about this being natural. I'm not really competent to discuss but I'll refer you to the prior writings posted here for that. But there are two non-sciency things that cut against this: 1. the Chinese have been looking high and wide for the bats and pangolins. They have yet to find it. 2. The chinese have been stone walling the investigation: if it wasn't engineered or a naturally occurring lab leak, what's the motivation to hide it? It doesn't make any sense, particularly when it you compare it to the intelligence which has been reported surrounding the wuhan lab. From a propaganda point of view, if it was natural, it makes the most sense to completely cooperate with the investigation to clear the wuhan lab and then shift the blame to the US (like they attempted to do). But that's not what the Chinese did.

humans having been coming into contact with new natural host viruses for the last at least 70 years now. frequent jet travel and interconnected logistics have been in place since the 60s (yes, you can argue China and the second world were separated from that chain but China has been interconnected since the 90s and is a big enough network in and of itself). If anything, it's a missive that we should stop doing stupid stuff like the wet markets but all indications are that's not what happened here.
 
I'm agnostic about the origin. Like I said much earlier, i can see it either way and nothing you post below sorts it out in the way you suggest it does in the end.

1. the Chinese have been looking high and wide for the bats and pangolins. They have yet to find it.

The "it" in this case is not the hosts. It's the host with the correct C-virus genome sequence so the phylogeny can be reconstructed. Working phylogenies forward is easy; working them backwards is hard. Care to take a guess as to C-virus genetic diversity in the wild?

2. The chinese have been stone walling the investigation: if it wasn't engineered or a naturally occurring lab leak, what's the motivation to hide it? It doesn't make any sense, particularly when it you compare it to the intelligence which has been reported surrounding the wuhan lab. From a propaganda point of view, if it was natural, it makes the most sense to completely cooperate with the investigation to clear the wuhan lab and then shift the blame to the US (like they attempted to do). But that's not what the Chinese did.

Could easily have been a lab leak. After all that's what they do at the Wuhan institute. Explore recombination in zoonotic viruses. Governments are often not forthcoming about all kinds of things. Imagine what we might say if the Chinese wanted to come over and get a "free to roam the halls" pass at Ft. Detrick. A thorough inspection of the viral stocks at Wuhan might shed some light, although the relevant material could have been bleached some time ago.

humans having been coming into contact with new natural host viruses for the last at least 70 years now. it's a missive that we should stop doing stupid stuff

Yep. Ebola, SARS, MERS, Covid-19. All in the blink of an eye really.

All indications are that's not what happened here.

None of what you write here is definitive one way or another, no matter how you dress it up for it's big debating wrap up. Do you think SARS or MERS were also lab leaks? This one may or may not have recombined in the wild. Natural processes can readily promote such outbreaks is the point. More may be forthcoming.
 
Re the bats: In the natural derivation scenario, the bats would have infected pangolins as an intermediate host at a site other than Wuhan (southern Asia, Africa, etc), leading to a co-infection cycle of bat and pangolin C-viruses within the same animals. Scales from these pangolins, or possibly live animals, were then transported to markets in Wuhan where CoV-2 made the jump. Genome sequence comparisons support the idea there are segments of both pangolin and bat C-virus present in CoV-2, suggesting recombination between the two viral genomes occurred. Such recombination events are hardwired into the the C-virus replicative cycle and are part of the reason this group of viruses can evolve so quickly. Whether these recombination events occurred naturally at a site other than Wuhan or as part of a laboratory study conducted in Wuhan is an unresolved question. But whether the bats are native to Wuhan does not weigh in on it directly. A thing to keep in mind is that, no matter the sequence of events in this particular case, CoV-2 could quite readily have arisen through a relatively well understood natural process. As humans come into new contact with co-evolved natural host-virus relationships around the globe, some virologists are predicting that we will be seeing more of these zoonotic outbreaks in the immediate future.
I personally think pangolins are being used as a scapegoat. I mean they're a convenient and credible choice. They look like giant armored rats. If the media blamed it on panda cubs, c'mon now, how many people are going to believe that? Now one is going to argue with bats and pangolins. Just saying.
 
I'm agnostic about the origin. Like I said much earlier, i can see it either way and nothing you post below sorts it out in the way you suggest it does in the end.



The "it" in this case is not the hosts. It's the host with the correct C-virus genome sequence so the phylogeny can be reconstructed. Working phylogenies forward is easy; working them backwards is hard. Care to take a guess as to C-virus genetic diversity in the wild?



Could easily have been a lab leak. After all that's what they do at the Wuhan institute. Explore recombination in zoonotic viruses. Governments are often not forthcoming about all kinds of things. Imagine what we might say if the Chinese wanted to come over and get a "free to roam the halls" pass at Ft. Detrick. A thorough inspection of the viral stocks at Wuhan might shed some light, although the relevant material could have been bleached some time ago.



Yep. Ebola, SARS, MERS, Covid-19. All in the blink of an eye really.



None of what you write here is definitive one way or another, no matter how you dress it up for it's big debating wrap up. Do you think SARS or MERS were also lab leaks? This one may or may not have recombined in the wild. Natural processes can readily promote such outbreaks is the point. More may be forthcoming.
1. a "Contagion" type situation might have been possible (bat to pig creates new virus, pig gets eaten by lady, virus mutates in the lady, doesn't spread to other pigs) it's just not very likely. More likely is there would have been a reservoir (however small) of the virus (or the immediate precursor virus). They've turned the world up and down looking for this reservoir. It's just not there. Not to mention the fact that it's jumped to so many species now. Not saying it's not possible...just not very damn likely at this point, given that the Chinese government is so desperate to deflect if there were any possibility it would have by now.
2. It's not just the CPC opening up the Wuhan lab for Americans, they stonewalled the international inspectors too. They've also silenced the witnesses and not made them available to the press. Again, the entire behavior is extreme suspicious....smoke, fire.
3. You'll recall Ebola, Sars, and Mers did not spread to a global pandemic. Burned out eventually. COVID has crossed into dogs but (at least so far) they aren't all dropping dead from it either.
4. I'm not dismissing the possibility of a natural fluke. It's just very very very unlikely at this point. The probabilities of natural occurrence v. lab leak v. engineered is just orders of magnitude off right now.
 
Back
Top