MSK357
GOLD
So COVID is less dangerous than the Flu for kids even with the flu vaccine. Got it. Thanks.
Time to Play
- Thread starter MicPaPa
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Even with kids receiving flu vaccine shots, they are effected exponentially more by the flu virus then the Covid virus. ALL DATA points show kids are fine to play.
It does seem there is a decline but we don't know by how much yet looking at the CDC data because there is a significant reporting lag. As the footnote on the CDC Provisional Death Count page says: "Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (<25%), and then increases over time such that data are generally at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred." See https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm. On top of this reporting delay it's at least 2-8 weeks from infection to death. So it could be a while before we can judge the true impact of these new outbreaks.You should also look at deaths by week in the US and note how despite states opening up, more testing positive...deaths have plummeted.
The week of 4/18 the US had 16300 deaths
The week of 6/13 the US had 1260 deaths
Could you please present ALL DATA and your personal definition for "exponentially"?
MSK357
GOLD
Are you denying the flu kills children under 17 (Even though we have a flu vaccine) while there are 0 COVID deaths for kids under 17 in california?
Maybe. I would like to see the data source first.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
They do project a "final" number of deaths up to the current full week based on adjusting real data for expected growth due to future reporting. Here it is for the US. Same things apply as stated for my previous post regarding CA. Both this and the CA graph support that deaths have been falling significantly from the peak.
Attachments
No reason to be a broken record, please do your own research. Where's your data that shows the flu is less deadlier than Covid?I have plenty of data. Don't rely on data posted here, take the time and effort to come to your own conclusions. It's easy to ask questions and play devil's advocate. When Data shows that there is a zero percent chance my kid will die from the Covid virus, I am very comfortable for my kid to play, bottom line.
You're the one who made the claim, so you should be the one doing the reasearch.
Desert Hound
DA
COVID Data Tracker Weekly Review
The week’s key data, narrative interpretations, & visualizations.
MSK357
GOLD
Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 Flu Season | CDC
CDC calculates estimates of disease burden in the United States using surveillance data and modeling to adjust for sources of under-detection. Burden estimates for the 2018-2019 season found here.
| Symptomatic Illnesses | Medical Visits | Hospitalizations | Deaths | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age group | Estimate | 95% UI | Estimate | 95% UI | Estimate | 95% UI | Estimate | 95%UI |
| 0-4 yrs | 3,633,104 | (2,506,551, 7,199,330) | 2,434,180 | (1,667,892, 4,820,252) | 25,328 | (17,475, 50,191) | 266 | (85, 713) |
| 5-17 yrs | 7,663,310 | (6,027,982, 10,438,419) | 3,984,921 | (3,067,414, 5,415,715) | 21,012 | (16,528, 28,621) | 211 | (38, 640) |
COVID Data Tracker Weekly Review
The week’s key data, narrative interpretations, & visualizations.www.cdc.gov
Thank you.
Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 Flu Season | CDC
CDC calculates estimates of disease burden in the United States using surveillance data and modeling to adjust for sources of under-detection. Burden estimates for the 2018-2019 season found here.
Symptomatic Illnesses Medical Visits Hospitalizations Deaths Age group Estimate 95% UI Estimate 95% UI Estimate 95% UI Estimate 95%UI 0-4 yrs 3,633,104 (2,506,551, 7,199,330) 2,434,180 (1,667,892, 4,820,252) 25,328 (17,475, 50,191) 266 (85, 713) 5-17 yrs 7,663,310 (6,027,982, 10,438,419) 3,984,921 (3,067,414, 5,415,715) 21,012 (16,528, 28,621) 211 (38, 640)
Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 Flu Season | CDC
CDC calculates estimates of disease burden in the United States using surveillance data and modeling to adjust for sources of under-detection. Burden estimates for the 2018-2019 season found here.
Symptomatic Illnesses Medical Visits Hospitalizations Deaths Age group Estimate 95% UI Estimate 95% UI Estimate 95% UI Estimate 95%UI 0-4 yrs 3,633,104 (2,506,551, 7,199,330) 2,434,180 (1,667,892, 4,820,252) 25,328 (17,475, 50,191) 266 (85, 713) 5-17 yrs 7,663,310 (6,027,982, 10,438,419) 3,984,921 (3,067,414, 5,415,715) 21,012 (16,528, 28,621) 211 (38, 640)
That's for 2018-19, and it's for all of USA, not just California.
Desert Hound
DA
No problem
MSK357
GOLD
you can look at the other years, its on the same website. Then you can compare it to all covid deaths at under 17 years of age in the U.S.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
I should have looked closer. The last week is the week ending June 6th. So, they appear to wait a full two weeks before trying to report anything. I would expect them to be able to project pretty accurately at this point given that much runway. The week ending June 6th is actually just under the 95% CI bar (same with CA).
The lags make it difficult to really get a feel for what direction things are moving currently. Positive testing doesn't correlate as strongly to hospitalization and then deaths as it did in the beginning when only obviously sick people were being tested. AZ was in the news recently about positive testing, but the lags were significant for their data. So, I keep looking at the ICU Hospital Beds available as these numbers can be reported daily without lag. They have leveled off the past week around 85%. The most recent plateau is from 6/16-6/22/
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Your challenge was "Are you denying the flu kills children under 17 (Even though we have a flu vaccine) while there are 0 COVID deaths for kids under 17 in California?"
Your quoted source says nothing of the "California" part.
MSK357
GOLD
Here you go:
COVID-19 Cases by Age Group
www.cdph.ca.gov
| Age Group | No. Cases | Percent Cases | No. Deaths | Percent Deaths | Percent CA population |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <5 | 2,988 | 1.7 | 0 | 0.0 | 5.8 |
| 5-17 | 10,358 | 5.8 | 0 | 0.0 | 16.7 |
Here you go:
COVID-19 Cases by Age Group
Age Group No. Cases Percent Cases No. Deaths Percent Deaths Percent CA population <5 2,988 1.7 0 0.0 5.8 5-17 10,358 5.8 0 0.0 16.7
I'm glad to see that all that social isolation wasn't for nothing.
MSK357
GOLD
Social Isolation had nothing to do with it. Lets not pretend kids arent out playing with friends, soccer, or even protesting without a mask.
Well at least you now know COVID is safer for children 17 and under compared to the flu (With a vaccine). Time to open up schools and sports.
Data is this. Many kids are not doing much except: _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________I see kids playing at the beach and all over the place. I see protesters who look like kids, who spend hours upon hours protesting for what they believe in and I support that btw, as long as it's peaceful. I see other young adults not in school and their fighting for their cause. My kid would like to get some exercise at soccer camp for the next month or so. What is so wrong with that? We haven't started playing a game yet either. Buzz off for goodness snakes and find something else to do. Maybe change the thread to "Time To Camp." Let's all come back August 1st and talk Corona with a lime and a grain of salt. We can have espy and dad of 4, plus Copa go over the facts for July's data numbers. One thing I love about math, numbers never lie. They can't because numbers speak the truth, unless the numbers have been played with as some like to play number games. Scare tactics is causing much confusion and sadness to our youth. Sports for youth need to be allowed, like now dad of 4. Dang bro, I give you credited for dealing with 4 kids, all under 10 and have all the time you give us on the forum. Thank for sharing your opinion btw. Dad drops off kiddo and takes a one hour walk so he stops getting fat. Or, you can go meditate on something freaking positive and stay away from news channel. Time to camp, campers!!!