Good News Thread

dad4 said:
Back to good news, any read on the following is welcome.

National daily reported cases seem to be momentarily hovering at 200k. One million per 5 days.

Some states in the middle of the country seem to be seriously slowing down, usually in the 6% to 10% confirmed cases range. (arguably depending on temperature, pop density, local rules, degree of compliance, and so on.)

I place this as meaning that overall cases should slow down as the nation nears 6%. (I took the low end on the assumption that the states with North Dakota style habits are already experiencing North Dakota style case loads.)

Anyway, if it tapers off at 6% then things start calming down around Dec 31. Or, once we add in a bump for the Christmas travel, late January.

That conclusion is not too different from the (much more sophisticated) IHME national projection.
Click to expand...
Missed this - spending too much time in the Bad News Thread.

Hard to argue with any of it. The one thing I notice when looking at the individual state case graphs on NYTimes, states that had a very steep increase for about 3 weeks also had a very fast drop. The hope is that RI, NY, CA, DE, MA and a few other east coast states max out in less than a week and do the same. CA graph is STEEP right now.

My "Good News" is that while cases are still trending up, Rt has gone from two states in the green a few days back to 11 states. Of those states, only VT and WA don't also have a graph trend that supports further downward movement. The next 11, to UT, all show signs that they may be at or just past peak.

1607579570113.png
 
Santa Clara got their first batch of vaccine. Front-line workers and residents of nursing homes first. While this is a relatively small population and may not do much to slow the spread, it has the potential to have a significant effect on the death rate since these older folks are, by far, at the highest risk. I think I'll drink to this - one Margarita for Dad and a shot of Vodka for Grace.
 
kickingandscreaming said:
Santa Clara got their first batch of vaccine. Front-line workers and residents of nursing homes first. While this is a relatively small population and may not do much to slow the spread, it has the potential to have a significant effect on the death rate since these older folks are, by far, at the highest risk. I think I'll drink to this - one Margarita for Dad and a shot of Vodka for Grace.
Click to expand...

I'll drink to that. I've offered dad an armistice. We'll see if he takes it.
 
kickingandscreaming said:
Santa Clara got their first batch of vaccine. Front-line workers and residents of nursing homes first. While this is a relatively small population and may not do much to slow the spread, it has the potential to have a significant effect on the death rate since these older folks are, by far, at the highest risk. I think I'll drink to this - one Margarita for Dad and a shot of Vodka for Grace.
Click to expand...

The distribution plans do bug me a bit.

With more than a passing knowledge of nursing homes, I understand there is a group of willing, at risk, and relatively compliant population with an ease of distribution on site (vaccine needs to be kept extremely cold and distributed quickly).

... but that population has no outside exposure at present other than the facility staff. Staff that should be one the priority list as essential workers... many of which are low income (social equity in distribution) and likely live in communities with a greater rate of spread.

Seems like you could protect two groups (workers and elderly) more efficiently with fewer doses.
 
N00B said:
The distribution plans do bug me a bit.

With more than a passing knowledge of nursing homes, I understand there is a group of willing, at risk, and relatively compliant population with an ease of distribution on site (vaccine needs to be kept extremely cold and distributed quickly).

... but that population has no outside exposure at present other than the facility staff. Staff that should be one the priority list as essential workers... many of which are low income (social equity in distribution) and likely live in communities with a greater rate of spread.

Seems like you could protect two groups (workers and elderly) more efficiently with fewer doses.
Click to expand...

The issue is they can't keep them from visitors forever and in August-September at least our local homes had allowed visits with certain restrictions (ourdoors, temp checks, masks, no children). The other issues is they'd likely have to make it mandatory since some workers will say no, and it doesn't seem they are quite yet ready to have that fight. That said, so far in most states facility staff are in the second tier.

The thing I don't understand is why vaccinate front line health care workers first, particularly if they are under 50 or have had it already. Maybe because they think medical professionals would be more willing to take it, have access to treatment if needed, and can be experimented on for a while to build confidence?

The side effects/allergy issue has hit the WSJ. We should know in a week or two how pronounced these issues are.

www.wsj.com

Covid-19 Vaccines Pose Potential Side Effects, Doctors Say

While researchers haven’t found serious safety issues with two vaccines that are expected to be authorized for emergency use, the shots might come with possible side effects including fever, fatigue, headache and arm pain.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
 
Am I missing something? Pulled these numbers straight from the CDC website, but am not 100% sure this show what I think it shows:

56B9C3D1-4B29-4C19-ABEC-5F1645534614.jpeg
 
@dad4 hit hardest with this one.

"During a news conference last week, Gov. Cuomo put up a chart highlighting where the novel coronavirus is being spread. It turns out, a shocking 74 percent of new cases were caught at gatherings in private homes. Restaurants and bars, meanwhile, accounted for just 1.43 percent."
 
No delays from any states on vaccine distribution for independent review. As expected, that was simple pandering to the base.

“Frankly, I’m not going to trust the federal government’s opinion, and I wouldn’t recommend to New Yorkers, based on the federal government’s opinion,” Mr. Cuomo said at a news briefing.

www.nytimes.com

New York Will Review Virus Vaccines, Citing Politicization of Process (Published 2020)

New York officials do not play a role in the approval of a vaccine, but could delay distribution if they believed the vaccine was not safe.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
Desert Hound said:
@dad4 hit hardest with this one.

"During a news conference last week, Gov. Cuomo put up a chart highlighting where the novel coronavirus is being spread. It turns out, a shocking 74 percent of new cases were caught at gatherings in private homes. Restaurants and bars, meanwhile, accounted for just 1.43 percent."
Click to expand...

provides pretty compelling reason for why masks aren’t working either. If they are gathering in the homes they probably aren’t wearing masks there either. I know the dangybros that threw the kegger next door weren’t wearing masks in between their chugs.
 
The good news is we know who already sold their souls. Dont tell the people, show the people. Love you Grace. Stay safe :)
 
Desert Hound said:
@dad4 hit hardest with this one.

"During a news conference last week, Gov. Cuomo put up a chart highlighting where the novel coronavirus is being spread. It turns out, a shocking 74 percent of new cases were caught at gatherings in private homes. Restaurants and bars, meanwhile, accounted for just 1.43 percent."
Click to expand...
Health-care delivery - an activity that is difficult to modify to lower risk - contributed 7.8% of the cases and was second to "household/social gatherings". This is more support for vaccinating the front-line workers first. College students and education workers are next.

--- From article

Topping the list (see below) was “household/social gatherings,” linked to 73.8% of the exposures. Health-care delivery was a distant second at 7.8%. It was followed by college students and education workers.

Further down, at No. 5, “restaurants & bars” were linked to 1.4% of exposures.

www.syracuse.com

NY data lists restaurants as low coronavirus risk. Owners ask: Then why is Cuomo killing us?

Cuomo chart shows dining out linked to 1.4% of recent cases.
www.syracuse.com www.syracuse.com
 
kickingandscreaming said:
Health-care delivery - an activity that is difficult to modify to lower risk - contributed 7.8% of the cases and was second to "household/social gatherings". This is more support for vaccinating the front-line workers first. College students and education workers are next.

--- From article

Topping the list (see below) was “household/social gatherings,” linked to 73.8% of the exposures. Health-care delivery was a distant second at 7.8%. It was followed by college students and education workers.

Further down, at No. 5, “restaurants & bars” were linked to 1.4% of exposures.

www.syracuse.com

NY data lists restaurants as low coronavirus risk. Owners ask: Then why is Cuomo killing us?

Cuomo chart shows dining out linked to 1.4% of recent cases.
www.syracuse.com www.syracuse.com
Click to expand...

Even giving you give them the benefit of the doubt that the 1.4% of exposures is low, and even it's off by a magnitude of 10x, it's still a pretty good explanation (if it holds) for why non-medical government interventions like partial lockdowns and mask mandates haven't been able to prevent cases from exploding. Remember Los Angeles has had indoor dining closed and a mask mandate for a very long time.
 
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