Bad News Thread

dad4 said:
Testing? Check. Shop online? check. Avoid protests? check. Avoid airplane flights? check. Skip interstate trip to visit sick relative? check. Other than one weekend trip for soccer, I’ve been living under the Australian rules already.
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You forgot...tin foil hat on? Check.
 
dad4 said:
Almost nothing in your description of Australian personal behavior is all that different from what I have already done.

The key differences center around the whole “never leave your house claim”. As it happens, it is not necessary to never leave your house”. It is enough to “never enter someone else’s house”.

Testing? Check. Shop online? check. Avoid protests? check. Avoid airplane flights? check. Skip interstate trip to visit sick relative? check. Other than one weekend trip for soccer, I’ve been living under the Australian rules already.

Which makes me doubt your description of AU rules as a police state. If you just replace ”stay home” with “stay outside”, it’s a completely livable set of rules.

Of course, it is a problem if you want to get together with 5000 friends and break into Walmart or the Capital building. But I’m ok with the police arresting people like that. ( Even if you think your cause is really, really important. )
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The Aussies closed the beaches but allowed travel across them to surf, swim, fish, etc.
 
Hüsker Dü said:
Different culture in NZ, they aren’t afraid of everything. Fiercely independent but mindful for their neighbors. We are barbarians in comparison. A good friend moved there with his Kiwi wife. They are leery of bringing their kids here. Good surf, good food, great wine, but Harley parts are hard to come by.
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Nailed it!!
 
Grace T. said:
In Australia during the snap lockdowns it's a hard lockdown like they had in Europe. Basically to get food, pharmacy and medical care. The difference is they started with low enough prevalence that they could use those snap lockdowns to drive the rates near to zero. It's stay at home, not stay outside, at least for the duration of snap lockdowns when cases are detected in a region or city.

This really isn't intended as a slam at all but either you have serious fear issues, or you are just a very high off the chart introvert. If you really have been living Australia rules and not going out of your house for anything but food, pharmacy and medical care when cases rise, wow. Most people aren't capable of that. It's not exactly "normal". And for you to assume that people will do it for a year plus and after vaccinated just shows how seriously out of touch you are with human interaction. As I've written before, it's insane the experts would expect a 20 year old non cohabitating male to not date for a 1 year +.
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Is there a reason that a "stay outside" rule is significantly less effective than a "stay at home" rule?
 
dad4 said:
Is there a reason that a "stay outside" rule is significantly less effective than a "stay at home" rule?
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I don’t really know. Has anyone done a stay outside rule? There are certain weather limitation and with say kids in school. But it’s not what australia did, which is what we know works. Australia basically did China lite. And hey if it’s stay outside no reason for people to go around wearing masks except in the limited circumstances of going to the grocery, doctor of pharmacy. The biggest problem though is the factories and slaughterhouses. Australia got to near zero by shutting those too for short periods of time.
 
dad4 said:
Shush. Grownups are talking.
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Then why are you here?

Your "solutions/concerns" over the past year have been laughable.

A few gems.

Keep schools closed. Even after other countries were doing it in the summer you would find a news story here and there to show us all how concerning it was.

Then worried about outdoor sports. Then maybe having each team tested before each tournament.

Maybe the funniest one? Claiming mask usage brought the curve down in AZ. Remember that one? And when I and others showed you the curve was going down before the mask mandate you still claimed it was the mandate that did it.

Your fixation on restaurants/bars.

When pretty much every country in the N. Hemisphere started seeing a rise in cases in the fall...all within roughly the same 2-3 weeks you claimed it must be because people are going to bars/restaurants again.

You stated earlier today they basically you still are not going out. Why? The data shows the young have essentially zero risk. I also assume you are at an age where the date shows little to no risk either. As a math guy besides being able to do a problem, you should also be able to interpret the data as well and realize what the risk is or isn't.
 
Grace T. said:
I don’t really know. Has anyone done a stay outside rule? There are certain weather limitation and with say kids in school. But it’s not what australia did, which is what we know works. Australia basically did China lite. And hey if it’s stay outside no reason for people to go around wearing masks except in the limited circumstances of going to the grocery, doctor of pharmacy. The biggest problem though is the factories and slaughterhouses. Australia got to near zero by shutting those too for short periods of time.
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That's kind of my point. China lite worked. USA normal did not work. We should use AU/NZ as a starting point.

Now, take China lite, move it outside, and keep the masks. You still have R<1, but it is more sustainable.

You are assuming school is indoors. Why not hold high school outside in CA? Kid brings a folding chair and a clipboard. Mock it if you like, but it's a better idea than zoom.

And China lite is certainly better than pulling an AZ. If the whole country had Arizona's death rate, we would have a quarter million more covid deaths than we have already. Those are some pretty expensive margaritas at Ristorante del Hound.
 
dad4 said:
That's kind of my point. China lite worked. USA normal did not work. We should use AU/NZ as a starting point.

Now, take China lite, move it outside, and keep the masks. You still have R<1, but it is more sustainable.

You are assuming school is indoors. Why not hold high school outside in CA? Kid brings a folding chair and a clipboard. Mock it if you like, but it's a better idea than zoom.

And China lite is certainly better than pulling an AZ. If the whole country had Arizona's death rate, we would have a quarter million more covid deaths than we have already. Those are some pretty expensive margaritas at Ristorante del Hound.
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Because a. You can’t move high transmission locations like meat plants or factories outdoors which gives you Germany, b. Many of Australia’s moves are unconstitional here and c. You’d have to use force against both right wing and left wing treasures— shuttering business/free movement/free speech v violent suppression of blm and hard shut of the border. No thanks on the China lite. Not worth it then, especially not worth it now. Only appeals to the zero risk people on fantasyland.

ps your authoritarian streak is showing
 
dad4 said:
Why not hold high school outside in CA? Kid brings a folding chair and a clipboard. Mock it if you like, but it's a better idea than zoom.
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Why not hold school INDOORS. Lots of other states/countries are already doing it without issue.

The data shows zero risk for the under 24 age group.

Look at the data.
 
Grace T. said:
Because a. You can’t move high transmission locations like meat plants or factories outdoors which gives you Germany, b. Many of Australia’s moves are unconstitional here and c. You’d have to use force against both right wing and left wing treasures— shuttering business/free movement/free speech v violent suppression of blm and hard shut of the border. No thanks on the China lite. Not worth it then, especially not worth it now. Only appeals to the zero risk people on fantasyland.

ps your authoritarian streak is showing
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These days, we have enough tests to run daily covid tests for every meat packing plant worker. We also have enough masks to give every meat packing worker an N95 every day. It was an issue over the summer, but there are not enough cold room workers to pose a problem now.

Why is it so hard to visit with friends outside? You keep acting like, if your dinner party gets replaced with Mah Jong at a picnic table, then the secret police have arrived to burn your Vaclev Havel books.

Just meet people outside and show a bit of imagination.
 
When the risk of death from COVID-19 infection is nearly 1900X higher for the octogenarian population relative to those 29 years and under, then the point of across-the-board house arrest is self-evident: namely, in his “wisdom,” Governor Cuomo (and the infectious disease cartel for which he shills) have taken the 7.5 million New Yorkers under 30 years of age hostage, and made them involuntary instruments of a state-imposed maneuver to protect the elderly and infirm by stopping the contagion.

Stated differently, up to 20% or more of these 7.5 million New Yorkers under 30 years have already been infected based on the state’s own antibody studies, and doubtless 50-80% of those so infected have been asymptomatic, while most of the rest have recovered from a mild illness in the normal course of shaking off the flu. Actually, there have only been 78 reported COVID deaths in this entire age cohort.

So even if only 10% of the under 30 population has been infected, the implied IFR (infected-fatality rate) is just 0.01% (78 deaths/750,000 cases) – or barely more than the odds of being struck by lightning.
 
.....our experience as humans with Corona virus is, we've now been able to map back 780 years of experience with this viral family in our annual experiences. And the current consumer is very familiar with the common cold. There's about 120 common viruses that are related to the syndromes that we think of as described as the common cold. So that'd be upper respiratory congestion, cough, sore throat, these kinds of things. So the Corona viruses play an important part in that 120 families of viruses involved in those upper respiratory cold like syndromes.
 
In the last 20 years, we can point to three very specific events in which we have a Corona virus that shifts its behavior from a specific upper respiratory experience to one that's more involving the deep lungs and vascular systems and those present clinically much different finding. The first one was called SARS that really appeared coming out of China and South Asia in 2001, 2002, and then burned itself out importantly within 18 to 24 months, never to really reappear in its same form because humanity had reached this new homeostasis with it. And not just humanity, but water systems, soil systems, air systems, everything had come into balance with that new species within the Corona family, if you will, or that new element of genomic information. Because we can't really, speciate a non-living organism like a virus. So instead it's more of a description of a family of genetic codes.
 
And so we had a variant that created SARS, which presented very uniquely in the sense that it didn't present with elevated white blood cell counts. It wasn't an initial presentation of fever, actually presented with blue patients. And so those on the front lines in China and otherwise described patients showing up hypoxic and blue appearing as if they were at suddenly high altitude. And then they would be hospitalized and no matter how much oxygen they gave them, they couldn't really get their bloodstream to carry the oxygen. So it wasn't a lack of oxygen. It was a lack of oxygen carrying capacity. And then the descriptions from the front lines of SARS said that within two days of presenting blue, they would start to fill their lungs with fluid and then develop secondary pneumonia and vascular complications and then die within a few weeks in the more severe cases.
 
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