Bruddah IZ
DA
Deaths from weather are even lower than alleged COVID-19 deaths. I mean who knew COVID-19 could cure Cancer and heart disease.
Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
- Start date
Walking through the math on partial immunity doesn’t change it much.
You can break the population into groups to get an estimate of average immunity. K percent are under 12, L percent have both vaccine and natural immunity from a previous infection, M percent have Moderna, N percent have J&J, P percent have pfizer, Q are uninfected anti-vax, R are anti-vax but previously infected, and so on.
Three of those groups are in the 95% immunity range. (pfizer, moderna, and J&J+natural) Two are 70-90% (J&J only, and natural only) And only two are below 70%. ( under 12, and anti-vax but never infected)
Add them all up, and you’re still well over the 67% herd immunity threshold for R=3.
Of course, if you have something like Eeek that changes the spike protein, your effective immunity of all kinds drops. You end up well under the herd immunity threshold, and you are back to needing NPI of some kind. Nor can you let it bloom and trust in a lower ifr. The lower ifr is based on vaccinating the elderly. To the extent a new strain ignores the vaccine, it also ignores the lower ifr.
Agree on all except the last sentence. We don't really know that. Part of the thing with this virus is not just the virus itself but also the immune response it creates in our bodies from never having seen the thing before. That's why the theory is that Asia might have done better in numbers based on cross t-cell immunity from other coronaviruses. It's possible that the vaccines help against serious illness/death from new variants, but is only partially effective against new cases. We don't really know. If not, given that the world won't be vaccinated until 2023-2024, and given that leaves plenty of room for variants to develop, we are looking at a doomsday scenario where we are going to have to repeat this several times for years to come until vaccine adjustments finally catch up (worldwide including the deserts of Pakistan and the jungles of the Amazon) to variants. If that's the case we are all f'ed anyway so why worry about it. And if you really believe that's a possible scenario, you should be screaming at the D's to not only shutter hard the southern border, but to put fortress America restrictions in place on all air travel in and out of the United States now.
wrt vaccine resistant covid and ifr: you’re right that I was assuming that vaccine resistance would roughly track with resistance to natural immunity, and that ifr would follow both. This is true for some mechanisms but not others.
wrt border closures: Why would I worry about Mexico when we have millions of people right here who refuse to take even basic precautions?
If you want to pick an R/D wedge issue, pick something other than covid. I usually lean R, but the Rs on this issue are still behaving like spoiled 3 year olds. I see no reason for a grown man in a high density office building to refuse to wear a mask, even if it is just out of courtesy. (More than a few R congressmen and state reps fit that description.)
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
This COVID portion of the NYTimes is free. Lots of informaton there. Below is the link to "The OC"
Orange County, California Covid Case and Risk Tracker
See the latest charts and maps of coronavirus cases, deaths and hospitalizations in Orange County, California
www.nytimes.com
OC Cases (14-day average at 241 - hard to tell from the graph)
OC Deaths (also 14-day average)
Simple, because even if you are right about the high vaccination rates being enough to near eliminate it here in the United States, there is plenty of reserve outside the United States for new outbreaks to occur. And if people are flying to Disneyland and Hawaii, or taking cruises to the Carb or Med, or crossing over the southern border (whether citizens, migrants, or illegals) there's plenty of room for the new variants to come in and no amount of masking is going to prevent that.
p.s. it's not a even necessarily a wedge issue. It would require a harder shut than evenTrump put in place.
International travel, even with a catch and release policy for ICE, is not a significant factor for overall case numbers in the US. It really just provides seeds.
It would become a significant factor in some fantasyland where the bars are all closed, everyone takes the vaccine, people only gather outside, and we all mask up.
Last I checked, I don't live in such a place. I'll worry about Mexico the day after CPAC kicks out people for failing to wear their N95s properly.
It is a fantasyland because people are not going to live like that in perpetuity, particularly once the IFR is on the floor. What's worse you don't want to burn whatever little credibility is left on lockdowns and continue to have people grow even more exhausted of them in the event a variant emerges and you need to take those steps again in the future. Your argument was we need to be careful about creating new variants here given how close we'll get to herd immunity....there's plenty of room however overseas to create new variants and you admitted the foreign aspect might provide seeds here. And if the seeds get here that are really resistant to the vaccine, well then bar closures, outdoor gatherings and masks won't help control the thing either.
CDC released new guidance for vaccinated people today. Interestingly, they still maintain the vaccinated must maintain physical distancing around the "unvaccinated from multiple households" and masks. That would include children, since they can't be vaccinated and are multiple in schools. Given this, there's not let up for the 6 foot rule or masking requirements in schools this fall. Unless there is a substantial change in the guidance over the next couple months, some major school districts will still be hybrid only. That's going to run into some real problems once the parents are fully vaccinated and returning to offices/jobs.
Bruddah IZ
DA
I don't think we are doomed. As a species we would have been wiped out a long time ago. Isn't our DNA about 10,000 years old? That's a lot of coding at the disposal of our innate and adaptive immune system. I like our chances.
I'd agree. The most likely scenario is that even if there are supervariants that get away from the vaccine (and there most likely will be), a. the initial vaccines should provide assistants against serious illness/death, and b) to the extent viruses mutate, they tend to get less deadly and more contagious over time. The best guess is this becomes an annoying cold, which after dipping to very low levels in the US, kills some thousands of people every year, mostly near the end of life, but there are some antivirals on the horizon which if they work will lower this even more. The rise of cylons and the SMOD are of far greater concern.
I also think that there's going to be a reckoning re lockdowns (less so with masks because I think in the end the proof will show they help a little, particularly when it comes to viral loads, though I don't think most people will widespread adopt them for flu season but it will be more common in the US) and why the US chose to put all its eggs in the vaccine (as opposed to the antiviral) basket.
At least in the immediate future, people the next couple years will be talking about "flu and COVID season".
You believe that bar closures, masks, and outdoor gatherings do not work.
If they don't work, then what did work for AU/NZ? Both countries have had seeds that did not grow into outbreaks. Something works.
Don't say "authoritarian police state". Belarus has one of those, and it didn't help.
I am interested in the personal behavior patterns necessary to avoid exponential disease growth. What did NZ people do that was different from what our people are doing? Or was it just that they followed the (dining/mask/outside) rules and we did not?
Bruddah IZ
DA
Holy crap! I'd forgotten about the Cylons.
My house went 100% infected to 100% recovered, inline with CDC projected IFR's. I worked the whole time during our quarantine with some achiness, fatigue, and some discomfort in the lungs when fully expanding. But I maintained good nutrition with increased dosages of Vitamin C, D, Zinc, B12. Nurse called on day 10 and said we were no longer infectious. I was back in the pool that day and swam a nice slow 1600m to get my lungs working at full capacity. Kids were fatigued, head achy and annoyed they couldn't hang with their friends. My wife? She just refused to be sick and for the most part experienced very mild symptoms.
We are a very unhealthy country. Our Obesity rate is easily 36% according to the CIA's World fact book. I think it's more than 36% perhaps closer to 50%. Asia probably got better numbers because they aren't a bunch of fat asses. China's Obesity rate is about 6%. Japan is 4%. Vietnam 2%
Yes, authoritarian police state. Just take Australia because they (unlike New Zealand) had an actual outbreak in process. New Zealand caught theirs early. Remember we were deep already into an outbreak in New York City and the Pacific Northwest before we even fully comprehended how much of a problem we had. First, Australia's starting outbreak was small and their biggest problem was a cruise ship which could have spun out of control but didn't....we were already deep into outbreaks on both coasts and had a few cruise ship problems including people returning from the Japan outbreak. Second, Australia hard shut their border and left several of its citizens caught overseas. Trump got flack for partially closing airtravel (which never fully closed) and for closing the US border (which remained opened for citizens and those with a right to cross). Remember the summer surge was largely a southern one and driven in part by the very bad outbreak in Mexico. Third, Australia, sometimes violently, suppressed both the BLM and antilockdown protests, going so far as to arrest a pregnant woman for even posting info about a protest on her FB page. Many US health experts said the BLM protests were important, and thereby shattered the lockdown consensus. Fourth, the Australia lockdowns were more than just dining/masks/outside....they restricted regional travel (something which the US never did and when Florida tried to blockade New York the press and Ds screamed murder). Fifth, the lockdown of businesses were draconian approaching Europe...you couldn't leave your homes except for very limited exceptions. Sixth, they imposed mandatory testing and quarantines on those with the virus. Seventh, the lockdowns were targeted and treated on a city-city, region to region basis until cases fell to zero in the redlined area, but those were hard shuts....no escaping to cabins for vacations, no outdoor dining either, no shops open, no leave to other areas even if grandma is dying or broke her hip and needs help. For you to say it was just dining/masks/outside is delusional and if you really believe that you really do have a scary control issue. Australia's lockdown is hard and draconian and if the question is whether those hard and draconian measures work I'd say absolutely.
As to Belarus one of my sons favorite youtube is Bald and Bankrupt who traveled the region during COVID. They even had their military parade and day of service. It's not enough to have an authoritarian state. You must take authoritarian measure+ catch the outbreak early + seal the borders hard shut so you don't keep reseeding the thing. Hawaii remember with its semi-authoritarian measures came pretty close to stopping COVID, but it didn't seal its borders completely. One airline conference later and they had their problem. So they got the worst of both worlds....they were able to partially slow COVID but at a great and ruinous economic costs and lost their opportunity to contain it.
Bruddah IZ
DA
I'll tell you what NZ did. The All Blacks did the Haka and they didn't let the 70 million real sheep define them the way the alleged Land of the Free and Home of the Brave did by importing the mentality of NZ's sheep. Hell, Fauci even looks like a sheep dog. Seriously though, NZ Customs department has always been really strict. Both Islands are also mostly Rural.
Bruddah IZ
DA
Is it possible that reseeding is good for the survival of our species?
Almost nothing in your description of Australian personal behavior is all that different from what I have already done.
The key differences center around the whole “never leave your house claim”. As it happens, it is not necessary to never leave your house”. It is enough to “never enter someone else’s house”.
Testing? Check. Shop online? check. Avoid protests? check. Avoid airplane flights? check. Skip interstate trip to visit sick relative? check. Other than one weekend trip for soccer, I’ve been living under the Australian rules already.
Which makes me doubt your description of AU rules as a police state. If you just replace ”stay home” with “stay outside”, it’s a completely livable set of rules.
Of course, it is a problem if you want to get together with 5000 friends and break into Walmart or the Capital building. But I’m ok with the police arresting people like that. ( Even if you think your cause is really, really important. )
Glitterhater
SILVER ELITE
So is it 6ft? Our school said it's down to 4ft, and that is how they justified us doing away with hybrid models.
Bruddah IZ
DA
Life and Death.
In Australia during the snap lockdowns it's a hard lockdown like they had in Europe. Basically to get food, pharmacy and medical care. The difference is they started with low enough prevalence that they could use those snap lockdowns to drive the rates near to zero. It's stay at home, not stay outside, at least for the duration of snap lockdowns when cases are detected in a region or city.
This really isn't intended as a slam at all but either you have serious fear issues, or you are just a very high off the chart introvert. If you really have been living Australia rules and not going out of your house for anything but food, pharmacy and medical care when cases rise, wow. Most people aren't capable of that. It's not exactly "normal". And for you to assume that people will do it for a year plus and after vaccinated just shows how seriously out of touch you are with human interaction. As I've written before, it's insane the experts would expect a 20 year old non cohabitating male to not date for a 1 year +.
Hüsker Dü
DA
Different culture in NZ, they aren’t afraid of everything. Fiercely independent but mindful for their neighbors. We are barbarians in comparison. A good friend moved there with his Kiwi wife. They are leery of bringing their kids here. Good surf, good food, great wine, but Harley parts are hard to come by.