Bruddah IZ
DA
Sad to see the religious adherence to the COVID Robes.
Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
- Start date
Bruddah IZ
DA
Can you overlay deaths on this same chart?
A. Women?
B. Amusing yourself ain’t exactly a “conservative” value
C. This image ruined my breakfast.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Here you go. As context, I started this post 5 weeks ago when epidemiologist Michael Osterholm indicated the following
Osterholm predicted that B117, the more contagious strain of the virus that is sweeping England and has been found in pockets of the United States, will become the dominant strain of the virus in the country. “If we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell us we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,”
Coronavirus: 53 new deaths, 110 new cases in Orange County on March 7
Can you take a look at OC death counts from Rona? It seems like everyday 50+ deaths and under 200 cases. The other day it was 69 deaths and only 208 cases. What is going on?
If you’re worried about vaccine resistant variants, why do you want to open now instead of June? Running high case rates while halfway vaccinated is how you create vaccine resistant variants.
90% was assuming an 80% vaccination rate and 50% infection rate (past + future) among the unvaccinated.
If you have it, send links for the scale of the Italian school outbreak problem, and estimate of seroprevalence in Italy. If Lombardy has 80% seroprevalence and is still seeing 3 elementary school outbreaks per week, that’s interesting. If Lombardy has 50% seroprevalence and has enough school outbreaks for a reporter to find one as a human interest angle, that’s merely expected.
I’m saying less that covid goes away, and more that the covid fight will shift to the variants- first b.1.117, and then to any vaccine resistant variants that are around. The last is the most important.
If you are measuring what will happen with variants, you need to ask how long it will take something like Eeek or P.1 to grow to 100k cases per day. If we have around 10 cases per day now, then we have about 13 doublings before it happens. 16 doublings if we are currently at 1-2 cases per day. Half year? Maybe hits late fall, once the summer stops helping us? I haven’t seen anything on how fast the smaller variants are growing, so this doesn’t even count as a SWAG.
I was responding to your statement "people locked in with nothing to do weren’t exactly amusing themselves" by citing a continuation of what I believe you meant by "amusing themselves" that resulted in no surprise children.
Or did you have something else in mind?
Desert Hound
DA
A year into the pandemic, we easily forget that the lockdowns and other draconian restrictions were imposed as a temporary measure to “flatten the curves” and prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. We did that successfully. Months ago.
No one signed up for living in lockdown indefinitely.
Desert Hound
DA
RETRACTED ARTICLE: Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study - Scientific Reports
A recent mathematical model has suggested that staying at home did not play a dominant role in reducing COVID-19 transmission. The second wave of cases in Europe, in regions that were considered as COVID-19 controlled, may raise some concerns. Our objective was to assess the association between...
www.nature.com
View attachment 10341
RETRACTED ARTICLE: Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study - Scientific Reports
A recent mathematical model has suggested that staying at home did not play a dominant role in reducing COVID-19 transmission. The second wave of cases in Europe, in regions that were considered as COVID-19 controlled, may raise some concerns. Our objective was to assess the association between...
"With our results, we were not able to explain if COVID-19 mortality is reduced by staying at home"
It was a part of the plan for the demic. "Flatten the curve" is like trying to "catch the wind" with your hands, it was never going to happen. They had a bigger plan. Now the team with the plan is stuck and will look like complete fools and lairs and Karma will get them. Karma is real Hound.
Desert Hound
DA
That is exactly the point. They cannot find good evidence that stay at home orders made a difference.
Kind of like masks...there is little actual evidence to show they make any difference at all.
Absence of evidence is different from evidence of absence.
Oh I'm not saying mass outbreaks in the schools. That's not what appears to be happening in Italy. I've looked around trying to find seroprevalence levels in Lombardy even in the Italian press but they don't seem to have them. Have they stopped doing antibody studies? But in any case, like the measles outbreak in Disneyland, I foresee periodic outbreaks in schools from time to time of fast moving variants which will cause the talking and egg heads which have panicked before to panic again in the fall. It only takes a handful to create a problem and risks of disruption. In your math I think you are also assuming prior infection and/or vaccination confer full immunity, no? I don't think it works that way particularly given the limited efficiency of some vaccines. How much less I don't really know.
As to if you are worried of vaccine resistance, I'd be more worried if the rest of the world had it's s together. But between 2023-2024 is a long time for the rest of the world to allow variants and Joe Biden has so far shown zero inclination to control the southern border.
I look at seasonality like restrictions, both may influence the timing and size of peaks but at the end of the day don't do jack crap to determine the overall results. Due to the virulence and nature of this virus it is like water, it will always find the path of least resistance. Using another water analogy, restrictions and seasonality may temporarily kink the hose but the water is still building up and will be released. I just believe that the virus (not accounting for vaccinations) is going to infect so many people before it dies out. I guess that's a pseudo herd-immunity theory, although I don't believe the number it needs to infect before it effectively controlled is known.
IMO our initial goal to not overwhelm the hospitals was a correct approach, as opposed to following a tier system based on unreasonably low # of infections. The goal to not overwhelm hospitals had widespread buy-in, but unfortunately our health policy was then hijacked by politicians and special interests.
Bruddah IZ
DA
That's a pretty dramatic prediction. So the current vaccines were rendered useless even before the first poke??? Speaking of dramatic. I wanted to see the new death reports laid right on top of your initial chart. That way we can see some real drama.
"Using another water analogy, restrictions and seasonality may temporarily kink the hose but the water is still building up and will be released.
Nonsense.
I agree. At the end of the day in Europe it's increasingly looking like it will all end in the same place with some minor exceptions like Portugal and Ireland, and some places like the Czech Republic and Spain which might come out a little worse overall. I think it's more correct to say things like seasonality affect the timing of the waves...that's true of lockdowns and mobility as well because it's impossible to stay locked down for a year+. Again, it's ludicrous for the health officials to assume that healthy unmarried 20 year olds won't hook up for over a year if they aren't married or in the same households.
Bruddah IZ
DA
Not that COVID-19 mortality is driving the hysteria and thus the tyrannical policies.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Yes, I thought it was rather dramatic myself. That's why I wanted to follow it. His other quotes included the following. This was 5 weeks ago.
"I mean, imagine where we're at, Chuck, right now. You and I are sitting on this beach where it's 70 degrees, perfectly blue skies, gentle breeze. But I see that hurricane five, category five or higher, 450 miles offshore, ... That hurricane is coming" Osterholm said.