Bad News Thread

[Grace T.]

Here’s how the European situation is developing. There are 2 anomalies: Portugal and Ireland. The 3 hardest hit countries (Spain Belgium and Switzerland) are still in decline. Medium hit countries like Germany Poland France Sweden the Netherlands and southern Italy have plateaued and plateaued at rates higher than summer. Places with not a whole lot of previous cases like Norway Finland Estonia and Hungary are at their highest peak. And then there’s the Czech Republic which despite early praise is in a second meltdown with their hospital system nearing collapse for a second time in a row. Basically all the eu nations with the possible except of portugal and Ireland are going to end up the same. And yeah I know Switzerland and Norway aren’t officially members but they are closely integrated into the travel zone.

here’s the other bad news coming out of Europe. Because the variants are more contagious, even though kids are less likely to get it, it’a nearly as contagious among them as pre variant covid was for adults. So even in areas where the adult population is near herd immunity in northern italy they are still getting outbreaks in the schools and are even considering shuttering them.

a. We really are in a race to vaccinate here in the us before the same thing happens here and
b. Given no under 12 vaccine is likely this year there will be outbreaks in the schools this fall. The question then is if the adults are vaccinated and the ifr is on the floor if we care

 

[espola]

yes it did. Compare the wave in summer and the wave in winter. Furthermore the worst of the summer outbreak in the us was confined to the florida-Georgia-Texas—arizona-southern california. Further if you exclude the border counties touching Mexico the us summer wave would be further reduced.

Seasonality does not mean it goes away. It’s just a factor (likely the biggest factor) that impacts the rate of reproduction.

Between June and September in the USA, total confirmed cases in the USA quadrupled.

 

[Grace T.]

Between June and September in the USA, total confirmed cases in the USA quadrupled.

Between June and January they went up by more than 10x.

 

[espola]

Ps there have been a couple of studies recently looking into it that have found a clear correlation. One of the big indications is actually lines of latitude. Web md has a good summer of the research if you are genuinely interested instead of doing your usual schtick.

My usual schtick is to be skeptical of arguments by assertion until I have a look at what the numbers say.

 

[espola]

Ps there have been a couple of studies recently looking into it that have found a clear correlation. One of the big indications is actually lines of latitude. Web md has a good summer of the research if you are genuinely interested instead of doing your usual schtick.

This article?

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.

www.webmd.com

 

[espola]

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the case and incidence rates of COVID-19 among youth soccer players and evaluate the relationship with background COVID-19 risk and phase of return to play.

Methods: Surveys were distributed to soccer clubs throughout the country regarding their phase of return to soccer (individual only, group non-contact, group contact) and date of re-initiation, number of players, cases of COVID-19, and risk reduction procedures that were being implemented. Overall case and incidence rates were compared to national pediatric data and county data from the prior 10 weeks where available. Finally, a negative binomial regression model was developed to predict club COVID-19 cases with local incidence rate and phase of return as covariates and the log of club player-days as an offset. Results: 129 clubs responded, of whom 124 had reinitiated soccer, representing 91,007 players with a median duration of 73 days (IQR: 53-83 days) since restarting. Of the 119 that had progressed to group activities, 218 cases of COVID-19 were reported among 85,861 players. Youth soccer players had a lower case rate and incidence rate than the national rate for children in the US (254 v. 477 cases per 100,000; IRR = 0.511, 95% CI = [0.40-0.57], p<0.001) and the general population from the counties in which soccer clubs were based where data was available (268 v. 864 cases per 100,000; IRR = 0.202 [0.19-0.21], p<0.001). After adjusting for local COVID-19 incidence, there was no relationship between club COVID-19 incidence and phase of return (non-contact: β=0.35±0.67, p=0.61; contact: β=0.18±0.67, p=0.79). No cases were reported to have resulted in hospitalization or death. 100% of clubs reported having a plan in place to reduce the risk of COVID-19 and utilizing multiple different risk reduction procedures (median 8, IQR 6- 10). Conclusions: The incidence of COVID-19 among youth soccer athletes is relatively low when compared to the background incidence among children in the United States and the local general population. No relationship was identified between club COVID-19 incidence and phase of return to soccer. Youth soccer clubs universally report implementing a number of risk reduction procedures.

COVID-19 in Youth Soccer

"Caution: Preprints are preliminary reports of work that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information. "

 

[dad4]

here’s the other bad news coming out of Europe. Because the variants are more contagious, even though kids are less likely to get it, it’a nearly as contagious among them as pre variant covid was for adults. So even in areas where the adult population is near herd immunity in northern italy they are still getting outbreaks in the schools and are even considering shuttering them.

a. We really are in a race to vaccinate here in the us before the same thing happens here and
b. Given no under 12 vaccine is likely this year there will be outbreaks in the schools this fall. The question then is if the adults are vaccinated and the ifr is on the floor if we care

Why do you assume that covid can survive in significant numbers after we vaccinate 80%-85% of people over 13?

R0 is only 3 or so, even without masks. Even lower with masks. Seems really hard to keep going as a disease if you spread slowly and have proportionately few potential hosts.

Put another way, kids under 12 can transmit, but they aren’t very good at it. Where are you getting the long transmission chains once 90% of adults are immune? (vaccine plus natural immunity)

 

[Grace T.]

Why do you assume that covid can survive in significant numbers after we vaccinate 80%-85% of people over 13?

R0 is only 3 or so, even without masks. Even lower with masks. Seems really hard to keep going as a disease if you spread slowly and have proportionately few potential hosts.

Put another way, kids under 12 can transmit, but they aren’t very good at it. Where are you getting the long transmission chains once 90% of adults are immune? (vaccine plus natural immunity)

A. I’m assuming eventually the variants move away from the vaccine since we know that one has.
B. Do we have numbers yet on how long vaccine immunity in fact lasts separate and apart from mutations/variants?
C. Some vaccines like the Johnson and Johnson or az vaccines are substantially less efficient
D. So I’m not sure we get to 90% immune. It will be a substantial amount. How close to 90% is a guess based on many variables
e. Northern italy has had the longest history with covid in Europe and a very high immunity rate. What’s going on there right now is wholesale classrooms including nursery schools are getting it. This is different than what happened before.
f. You seem to be implying covid eventually goes away. If it were just the us I think there’d be a good chance but remember vaccination In the third world unlikely to be complete until 2022. So unless somehow the Biden admin is pursuaded to shut the border even more tightly than trump did there’s always going to be this outside reservoir for outbreaks a la the Disneyland measles outbreak despite very high levels of measles vaccination

 

[Grace T.]

A. I’m assuming eventually the variants move away from the vaccine since we know that one has.
B. Do we have numbers yet on how long vaccine immunity in fact lasts separate and apart from mutations/variants?
C. Some vaccines like the Johnson and Johnson or az vaccines are substantially less efficient
D. So I’m not sure we get to 90% immune. It will be a substantial amount. How close to 90% is a guess based on many variables
e. Northern italy has had the longest history with covid in Europe and a very high immunity rate. What’s going on there right now is wholesale classrooms including nursery schools are getting it. This is different than what happened before.
f. You seem to be implying covid eventually goes away. If it were just the us I think there’d be a good chance but remember vaccination In the third world unlikely to be complete until 2022. So unless somehow the Biden admin is pursuaded to shut the border even more tightly than trump did there’s always going to be this outside reservoir for outbreaks a la the Disneyland measles outbreak despite very high levels of measles vaccination

Sorry am wrong about the 2022 date. The economist says late 2023-2024. Plenty of time btw for more variants. Mexico has plans in place and has started immunizing but Central America is very far behind. Costa Rica and Panama have gotten some vaccines but the other 4 nations have little by way of planning in place and plan to rely it seems in the kindness of nations and the plans The Who and the gates foundation seem to be moving towards

 

[espola]

A. I’m assuming eventually the variants move away from the vaccine since we know that one has.
B. Do we have numbers yet on how long vaccine immunity in fact lasts separate and apart from mutations/variants?
C. Some vaccines like the Johnson and Johnson or az vaccines are substantially less efficient
D. So I’m not sure we get to 90% immune. It will be a substantial amount. How close to 90% is a guess based on many variables
e. Northern italy has had the longest history with covid in Europe and a very high immunity rate. What’s going on there right now is wholesale classrooms including nursery schools are getting it. This is different than what happened before.
f. You seem to be implying covid eventually goes away. If it were just the us I think there’d be a good chance but remember vaccination In the third world unlikely to be complete until 2022. So unless somehow the Biden admin is pursuaded to shut the border even more tightly than trump did there’s always going to be this outside reservoir for outbreaks a la the Disneyland measles outbreak despite very high levels of measles vaccination

The Disneyland measles outbreak primarily struck the unvaccinated or those for whom no vaccination status could be determined.

Measles Outbreak — California, December 2014–February 2015

www.cdc.gov

 

[Grace T.]

Fun fact: it seems that lockdowns have had another unintended consequence. Us births are down about 300,000. Similar dip in Europe from dec-February so far. Seems like people locked in with nothing to do weren’t exactly amusing themselves. Now granted the economy would have dipped even without lockdown and people might have been afraid to go to the hospital for deliveries so it can’t all be attributed to lockdown, but the lockdowns have likely made this effect more severe. Well know the difference as we get March-may data from the us and europe

 

[crush]

Fun fact: it seems that lockdowns have had another unintended consequence. Us births are down about 300,000. Similar dip in Europe from dec-February so far. Seems like people locked in with nothing to do weren’t exactly amusing themselves. Now granted the economy would have dipped even without lockdown and people might have been afraid to go to the hospital for deliveries so it can’t all be attributed to lockdown, but the lockdowns have likely made this effect more severe. Well know the difference as we get March-may data from the us and europe

We need more babies, not less. My pal is 52 and got divorced a few years ago. He told me dating apps now have women with a mask on so you dont see their teeth or smile and vice versa with some of the dudes. You can hide so much when wearing a mask. Grace, I hope you know by now what this is all about.

Example

 

[espola]

Fun fact: it seems that lockdowns have had another unintended consequence. Us births are down about 300,000. Similar dip in Europe from dec-February so far. Seems like people locked in with nothing to do weren’t exactly amusing themselves. Now granted the economy would have dipped even without lockdown and people might have been afraid to go to the hospital for deliveries so it can’t all be attributed to lockdown, but the lockdowns have likely made this effect more severe. Well know the difference as we get March-may data from the us and europe

After decades of amusing ourselves, myself and the women that mattered in the decision process had exactly the number of children we intended.

 

[crush]

After decades of amusing ourselves, myself and the women that mattered in the decision process had exactly the number of children we intended.

70,000,000 children got left behind old man since 1972. Not cool and not smart at all. You shall see sir very soon why it's not wise to terminate a life that was not intended but was conceived anyways because. This is why were in the mess were in. It's always been about the babies and kiddos and making sure they live free. Dont you ever ever forget that Espola. This planet is a planet that was supposed to bread life and multiply. It's obvious some assholes want to kill the weak and have population control. That is a loser plan and will get destroyed by the Author of Life. Dont mess with kids dude.....

 

[Bruddah IZ]

"Caution: Preprints are preliminary reports of work that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information. "

Lol. "Caution acknowledged". Great ECNL weekend at the Polo Fields.

 

[crush]

Lol. "Caution acknowledged". Great ECNL weekend at the Polo Fields.

It was just like old times Bruddah. I was looking up at the houses on the hill that look down on all the kids and are trying to stop soccer in Del Mar and i had a little chuckle in my belly and a few other thoughts in my brain Happy Monday Brudda man

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Between June and September in the USA, total confirmed cases in the USA quadrupled.

Did deaths tag along?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

It was just like old times Bruddah. I was looking up at the houses on the hill that look down on all the kids and are trying to stop soccer in Del Mar and i had a little chuckle in my belly and a few other thoughts in my brain Happy Monday Brudda man

I was on field 5. I was the one with 20 mask on.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

"Caution: Preprints are preliminary reports of work that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information. "

BTW if it is CAUTION you seek, read the vaccine trials.

 

[crush]

I was on field 5. I was the one with 20 mask on.

I was on field 1 and I was the one WHO got yelled at again for breaking the mask rule. I actually had someone say you better get that mask over your nose or we could lose this gig and it will be all your fault. I told her to worry about the lady from ABC news and the dudes up on the hill. I think were all trying to break a few stupid rules and I believe the mask is the biggest scam put on us ever. Talk about selling us ketchup popsicles....lol!!!

 

[kickingandscreaming]

4 weeks down, 2-10 to go. We did see a slight bump up this week. However, I'm feeling that the actual increase is due to the storm in TX pushing tests out making the week starting at 2/14 artificially low and pushing those tests later making the following week higher. Either way, we are flattening out which is not ideal. Next week we should be removed from the effect of that storm on testing.

Texas
View attachment 10225

US
View attachment 10224

5 weeks down - 1 to 9 to go.

Well, we have been down for 9 straight days. When more contagious variants take over, we should expect a sustained increase unless vaccinations and seroprevalence are enough to overcome the higher R. The "bump" in late February is partially caused by testing anomalies due to the storm - taking TX out smooths the curve noticeably - and maybe a bit of Super Bowl effect (just a guess).

NY Times has us at over 18% with the vaccine as of Sunday. I'd expect it to be near 21% by the end of this week with more vulnerable folks vaccinated at a much higher rate. I'd guess that the distribution of newer cases has to be moving much more toward the younger population. If the behavior of younger people is "riskier" in terms of the virus, the effective R will not be as significantly impacted by the vaccinations %. However, we should see a significant reduction in the case fatality rate with older folks being vaccinated.