Bad News Thread

[Desert Hound]

The data does show it. It's in multiple peer reviewed papers. You just don't have the statical chops to review the data.

Actual real world data shows otherwise.

And related to that now after listening to you compare regions/states/countries for a yr ...now within the past week ago you don't like. Mainly because you cannot explain why CA with some of the most strict policies has done no better covid wise compares to the other 2 largest states in the union who took very different policy decisions.

If masks made a significant difference the real world data would show it. It doesn't. To be honest if it did, you would be referencing the data ALL the time.

 

[watfly]

This is just a clip, but Real Sports last episode did a segment on youth sports during Covid. Surf Cup is covered in this clip. Check out the full segment. They did their best to portray youth sports during Covid in a negative light, but IMO they failed.

 

[Desert Hound]

Also I am a skeptic.

Over the past yr the various governments have constantly changed their opinion on various items. Masks being one of them.

Now they want masks because they want to be able to offer up some solution. So we have some recent small studies put out by the governments that support their policy.

The problem I have is that the CDC studied mask usage over the course of decades. During those decades there was no political pressure one way or the other.

The studies found that masks didn't stop the spread of the flu. More interestingly these studies where done mainly in medical settings. Settings where you had professionals who knew how to use masks, used new masks, following hygiene protocol, etc. And masks didn't work.

That is research over decades.

Now think about that and then factor in that covid supposedly spreads easier vs the flu.

I am not skeptical about the decades of studies. I am however very skeptical of new studies that now contradict decades of research while at the same time mirroring the political policy .

 

[Desert Hound]

This is just a clip, but Real Sports last episode did a segment on youth sports during Covid. Surf Cup is covered in this clip. Check out the full segment. They did their best to portray youth sports during Covid in a negative light, but IMO they failed.

I notice that clip doesn't talk about kids actually getting the virus. I suspect if they had the data it would be front and center.

So we get.. we don't like this because people might get sick...but don't have any evidence of people actually getting sick.

 

[dad4]

Actual real world data shows otherwise.

And related to that now after listening to you compare regions/states/countries for a yr ...now within the past week ago you don't like. Mainly because you cannot explain why CA with some of the most strict policies has done no better covid wise compares to the other 2 largest states in the union who took very different policy decisions.

If masks made a significant difference the real world data would show it. It doesn't. To be honest if it did, you would be referencing the data ALL the time.

Actual data, as interpreted by whom? By you?

You don’t have the statistical background to run the numbers. You have, what? An MBA? For biostatistical work, an MBA is weaker than the first two years of an undergraduate stats degree.

You’re still trying to compare viral growth patterns when one strain has R0=3 and the other strain has R0=4. Then you claim “Look, the state with the more transmissible virus had an outbreak!”.

What did you expect? Next you’re going to tell me that a Viper is faster than a Dart, even though both are Dodge vehicles. Clearly the Viper has a better driver.

In this case, the Dart came is slightly ahead of the Viper, and you’re giving the driver no credit.

 

[crush]

I notice that clip doesn't talk about kids actually getting the virus. I suspect if they had the data it would be front and center.

So we get.. we don't like this because people might get sick...but don't have any evidence of people actually getting sick.

Hound, we all know what this was about and just makes me sick to my stomach. Am I surprised by how some adults use kids as pawns so they can win? Hell no!!!! Sad state of affairs, MOO!

 

[watfly]

I notice that clip doesn't talk about kids actually getting the virus. I suspect if they had the data it would be front and center.

So we get.. we don't like this because people might get sick...but don't have any evidence of people actually getting sick.

They do in the full segment talk about some infections back East, but no mention of the severity. I would assume if it was severe illness or deaths they would have mentioned it. But yes more about negative perceptions than actual risk.

 

[dad4]

They do in the full segment talk about some infections back East, but no mention of the severity. I would assume if it was severe illness or deaths they would have mentioned it. But yes more about negative perceptions than actual risk.

That’s news media. It’s hard to tell a story in 3 minutes. So you cut corners and group things together. From a disease perspective, let them play is completely different from driving to Yuma. But it gets lumped together because they have no time to talk about local/travel and indoor/outdoor.

You have an outbreak from an indoor travel tournament in Placer, and it gets used to justify cracking down on local outdoor play.

 

[watfly]

That’s news media. It’s hard to tell a story in 3 minutes. So you cut corners and group things together. From a disease perspective, let them play is completely different from driving to Yuma. But it gets lumped together because they have no time to talk about local/travel and indoor/outdoor.

You have an outbreak from an indoor travel tournament in Placer, and it gets used to justify cracking down on local outdoor play.

100%

 

[Desert Hound]

They do in the full segment talk about some infections back East, but no mention of the severity. I would assume if it was severe illness or deaths they would have mentioned it. But yes more about negative perceptions than actual risk.

I unfortunately only saw the clip you posted and not the full thing.

 

[Desert Hound]

Actual data, as interpreted by whom? By you?

You don’t have the statistical background to run the numbers. You have, what? An MBA? For biostatistical work, an MBA is weaker than the first two years of an undergraduate stats degree.

You’re still trying to compare viral growth patterns when one strain has R0=3 and the other strain has R0=4. Then you claim “Look, the state with the more transmissible virus had an outbreak!”.

What did you expect? Next you’re going to tell me that a Viper is faster than a Dart, even though both are Dodge vehicles. Clearly the Viper has a better driver.

In this case, the Dart came is slightly ahead of the Viper, and you’re giving the driver no credit.

Well again you cannot seem to point to any success. If they worked the data would be rather clear.

Now you seemed rather concerned that TX was dropping mask mandates and allowing biz to be 100% open.

So if masks, biz not at capacity, etc work, we should expect to see their covid stats start noticeably deviating from the rest of the US right? And rather soon right?

Or will you move the goalposts again?

 

[crush]

 

[dad4]

Well again you cannot seem to point to any success. If they worked the data would be rather clear.

Now you seemed rather concerned that TX was dropping mask mandates and allowing biz to be 100% open.

So if masks, biz not at capacity, etc work, we should expect to see their covid stats start noticeably deviating from the rest of the US right? And rather soon right?

Or will you move the goalposts again?

You’re right. Mask advocates can’t point to any successes. Except for all of East Asia. And the Pacific Northweast. And Germany. So, masks haven’t worked for anyone, except for about 2 billion people.

What happens in Texas depends on how many Texans actually make use of Abbott’s decision.

Major retailers are keeping their mask rules. If smaller stores follow Walmart’s example, you may not see a significant change in mask usage.

Willing to take me up on the continental US question? compare death rates in all 48 continental US states, exclude anyone with a spring peak or high transmissibility dominant variant, and look up the mask policies of the best and worst 10 states.

Fair measure, or not?

 

[whatithink]

You’re right. Mask advocates can’t point to any successes. Except for all of East Asia. And the Pacific Northweast. And Germany. So, masks haven’t worked for anyone, except for about 2 billion people.

What happens in Texas depends on how many Texans actually make use of Abbott’s decision.

Major retailers are keeping their mask rules. If smaller stores follow Walmart’s example, you may not see a significant change in mask usage.

Willing to take me up on the continental US question? compare death rates in all 48 continental US states, exclude anyone with a spring peak or high transmissibility dominant variant, and look up the mask policies of the best and worst 10 states.

Fair measure, or not?

I wonder how much the exposure to SARs and H1N1 in East Asia, from a mask / precaution perspective along with an immunity build up, has impacted the overall deaths. I do think their ability to act quickly and get compliance immediately was definitely helped. The immunity one, idk, but its possible I'd think, but I'm no expert.

 

[dad4]

I wonder how much the exposure to SARs and H1N1 in East Asia, from a mask / precaution perspective along with an immunity build up, has impacted the overall deaths. I do think their ability to act quickly and get compliance immediately was definitely helped. The immunity one, idk, but its possible I'd think, but I'm no expert.

You can look at the 15 year old studies of SARS-cov1 seroprevalence. SARS was quite rare, infecting less than 1% of the population. As such, cross immunity from SARS is not a good explanation for the low incidence of covid in East Asia.

Risk-stratified seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus among children in Hong Kong - PubMed

As in adults, subclinical severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus infection was rare in children in the 2003 epidemic. The very low seroprevalence implies little or no population herd immunity to protect against future resurgence of severe acute respiratory syndrome.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Cultural habits from SARS, like mask wearing and staying home when mildly sick, are a more likely explanation for the east asian experience with covid.

 

[dad4]

Also I am a skeptic.

Over the past yr the various governments have constantly changed their opinion on various items. Masks being one of them.

Now they want masks because they want to be able to offer up some solution. So we have some recent small studies put out by the governments that support their policy.

The problem I have is that the CDC studied mask usage over the course of decades. During those decades there was no political pressure one way or the other.

The studies found that masks didn't stop the spread of the flu. More interestingly these studies where done mainly in medical settings. Settings where you had professionals who knew how to use masks, used new masks, following hygiene protocol, etc. And masks didn't work.

That is research over decades.

Now think about that and then factor in that covid supposedly spreads easier vs the flu.

I am not skeptical about the decades of studies. I am however very skeptical of new studies that now contradict decades of research while at the same time mirroring the political policy .

Here, you go, hound.

Real scientists did the county by county statistical regression analysis on 49 states worth of indoor dining and mask mandates.

Mask mandates work to reduce covid. Indoor dining works to increase covid. p<0.01

Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing ...

This report describes changes in COVID-19 case and death growth ...

www.cdc.gov

I know. You’re imagining a giant egghead conspiracy to lie to you about masks. Because, an international science conspiracy is more likely than you making a mistake.

 

[watfly]

Here, you go, hound.

Real scientists did the county by county statistical regression analysis on 49 states worth of indoor dining and mask mandates.

Mask mandates work to reduce covid. Indoor dining works to increase covid. p<0.01

Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing ...

This report describes changes in COVID-19 case and death growth ...

www.cdc.gov

I know. You’re imagining a giant egghead conspiracy to lie to you about masks. Because, an international science conspiracy is more likely than you making a mistake.

Correct me if I'm wrong but this appears to be a correlation study, not a causation study (realizing a real world causation study would be very difficult given the lack of reliable contract tracing). I have to believe masks work to some extent, but I'm not sure this is compelling proof. To me there are just too many variables involved even though the study said it used regression analysis to eliminate variables. However, when someone mentions regression analysis my eyes roll back in my head and I blackout, so maybe I'm not the best person to make that assessment.

When I look at things in totality (as opposed to CDC slices) it doesn't appear restrictions made any significant difference in state by state results. Results are all over the place regardless of the level of the restrictions. Masks may have very well improved results, but I believe the mask mandates, or may better said, "mask use" was not as variable from state to state as the "lockdown" restrictions. Give or take mask usage was much more universal relatively speaking.

 

[NorCalDad]

I step away for a few weeks and it looks like we're still debating masks.....sigh

 

[met61]

Here, you go, hound.

Real scientists did the county by county statistical regression analysis on 49 states worth of indoor dining and mask mandates.

Mask mandates work to reduce covid. Indoor dining works to increase covid. p<0.01

Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing ...

This report describes changes in COVID-19 case and death growth ...

www.cdc.gov

I know. You’re imagining a giant egghead conspiracy to lie to you about masks. Because, an international science conspiracy is more likely than you making a mistake.

Has anyone else noticed that a lot of the folks who are perfectly fine with forever masking also struggle to pick up on social cues and the finer nuances of human communication?

I'm not saying this is a universal rule, but it does strike me as a trend. And not to be rude, but people who don't understand the importance of facial communication probably shouldn't have a say in how long we go without seeing each other's faces.

Moreover, people who don't understand the value of normal human communication should not be the ones weighing the health risks of COVID against the social harm of lockdowns.

 

[Grace T.]

Here, you go, hound.

Real scientists did the county by county statistical regression analysis on 49 states worth of indoor dining and mask mandates.

Mask mandates work to reduce covid. Indoor dining works to increase covid. p<0.01

Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing ...

This report describes changes in COVID-19 case and death growth ...

www.cdc.gov

I know. You’re imagining a giant egghead conspiracy to lie to you about masks. Because, an international science conspiracy is more likely than you making a mistake.

Have been seeing a lot of criticism of this particular study. Here's the most compact summary of the criticism....basically they did a county level study but ignored the county mandates (looking at only the state mandates). It's a very easy question to answer: in those states for those periods that did not adopt a mask mandate, what does the comparison of side by side counties look like...you control for variants and weather that way. They did a few of these early on but stopped doing it because the data didn't look very good. At this point the CDC is desperately trying to justify its policies and is engaging in work which if produced by private institutions would be laughable. Their comprehensive review of observational studies was another because it didn't even mention the usual problems such as the control problem with the Roosevelt study. It's unheard of for the CDC to behave this recklessly (or as with the schools reopening plan which apparently so far only North Carolina is in favor of and only after a governor's veto couldn't be overriden by 1 vote) given the other outstanding work they've done in the past. Sorry dad, but that schools "reopening" plan is all the proof you need to see that they are no longer really an objective participant in all this (and the great irony is that you were the first on these boards to catch them at their shell game when it came to the schools....after discovering that for yourself it's surprising you are giving them this much deference....you know the old fool me once rule).

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1367900427023380482

 

[Grace T.]

Have been seeing a lot of criticism of this particular study. Here's the most compact summary of the criticism....basically they did a county level study but ignored the county mandates (looking at only the state mandates). It's a very easy question to answer: in those states for those periods that did not adopt a mask mandate, what does the comparison of side by side counties look like...you control for variants and weather that way. They did a few of these early on but stopped doing it because the data didn't look very good. At this point the CDC is desperately trying to justify its policies and is engaging in work which if produced by private institutions would be laughable. Their comprehensive review of observational studies was another because it didn't even mention the usual problems such as the control problem with the Roosevelt study. It's unheard of for the CDC to behave this recklessly (or as with the schools reopening plan which apparently so far only North Carolina is in favor of and only after a governor's veto couldn't be overriden by 1 vote) given the other outstanding work they've done in the past. Sorry dad, but that schools "reopening" plan is all the proof you need to see that they are no longer really an objective participant in all this (and the great irony is that you were the first on these boards to catch them at their shell game when it came to the schools....after discovering that for yourself it's surprising you are giving them this much deference....you know the old fool me once rule).

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1367900427023380482

For example.....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1362829949439074307