Bad News Thread

[dad4]

It's a little early to state with any assurance that a disease that has only been detected for a little over a year, and has been running like wildfire through the world's population all that time, has any "seasonal" characteristics.

It has seasonal characteristics. The problem comes when people want to use seasonality as an excuse for fatalism.

The logic goes,
If it is seasonal, I can't change anything. Therefore I can still do all the things I wanted to do and not feel guilty about it.

 

[espola]

i
Neglecting to weatherproof the windmills was a small part of the outages.

The bigger problems were isolating their grid, and not requiring companies to have equipment to dry the natural gas before transporting it.

If there is water in the gas, in cold weather it can freeze as the gas decompresses. Then you lose pressure in the whole natural gas system, and have neither heat nor electricity.

Texas let companies choose whether to install equipment that dries the gas. And they isolated their grid so they couldn't import power.

In all, not really windmills. More a question of the last 20 years of Texas energy regulation and deregulation.

And not Abbott as an individual, but definitely his party. And it is very awkward for him to fix, since re-regulating the energy industry would earn him a lot of enemies.

So, like any politician, he left the problems in place changed the subject.

Throughout the Texas freeze-up, windmills in the northern states were performing as needed.

On the other hand, some power outages in the north have been traced to ower lines that overheated and sagged low enough to short out during heatwaves.

 

[Grace T.]

It has seasonal characteristics. The problem comes when people want to use seasonality as an excuse for fatalism.

The logic goes,
If it is seasonal, I can't change anything. Therefore I can still do all the things I wanted to do and not feel guilty about it.

No the logic goes seasonality is a driver by several factors. You can’t control the weather. You also can’t control variants and density and demographics are baked in. So the only thing you can do to impact the thing (control now being impossible because you can’t control the aforementioned factors) is what’s remaining. To this remainder you must apply a cost/benefit analysis, the benefit being limited by the remainder portion that isn’t already baked in. The problem with the experts is they’ve exaggerated the benefit to be gained (by not excluding what’s outside their control, including certain human behavior) and failed to look at the cost.

 

[espola]

No the logic goes seasonality is a driver by several factors. You can’t control the weather. You also can’t control variants and density and demographics are baked in. So the only thing you can do to impact the thing (control now being impossible because you can’t control the aforementioned factors) is what’s remaining. To this remainder you must apply a cost/benefit analysis, the benefit being limited by the remainder portion that isn’t already baked in. The problem with the experts is they’ve exaggerated the benefit to be gained (by not excluding what’s outside their control, including certain human behavior) and failed to look at the cost.

So many words. So little meaning.

 

[Hüsker Dü]

View attachment 10258

A Pepe’ meme? Really? How many times will you be lied to and still persist on believing?

 

[dad4]

No the logic goes seasonality is a driver by several factors. You can’t control the weather. You also can’t control variants and density and demographics are baked in. So the only thing you can do to impact the thing (control now being impossible because you can’t control the aforementioned factors) is what’s remaining. To this remainder you must apply a cost/benefit analysis, the benefit being limited by the remainder portion that isn’t already baked in. The problem with the experts is they’ve exaggerated the benefit to be gained (by not excluding what’s outside their control, including certain human behavior) and failed to look at the cost.

Cost benefit analysis?

I don’t believe for a second that anti-mask sentiment is any more thoughtful than a three year old saying “I don’t wanna”. Masks are not comfortable, therefore I don’t have to wear one. That’s as deep as it goes.

It certainly is not based on a cost-benefit analysis between an X% reduction in covid transmission compared to whatever the negative consequences of masks are supposed to be.

 

[Grace T.]

So many words. So little meaning.

“Oh magoo, you’ve done it again old bean!”

 

[Grace T.]

Cost benefit analysis?

I don’t believe for a second that anti-mask sentiment is any more thoughtful than a three year old saying “I don’t wanna”. Masks are not comfortable, therefore I don’t have to wear one. That’s as deep as it goes.

It certainly is not based on a cost-benefit analysis between an X% reduction in covid transmission compared to whatever the negative consequences of masks are supposed to be.

We’ve had this discussion before. The issue with masks is in a macro level they have very little benefit fir a variety of reasons: people use them imperfectly, they reuse the masks or use poor cloth ones, they use them for too long and get them wet, undermines distancing, they use them for situations they weren’t intended (visiting grandma indoors for 3 hours at Christmas). No where in the world has the mask mandates been able to change the direction of a curve and neighboring county analysis shows repeatedly very little benefit if any. So small benefit: might keep some people going into the grocery store from catching something or at the hair salon if the infected dresser is standing behind them.

There is a cost: psychological damage particularly to small children and people with certai disorders such as autism (but yeah you don’t care about the autistic), societal harm since we are social creatures that read faces (but yeah you’re an I so don’t understand that), the costs of the masks (they aren’t free) and the environmental damage

So yeah they are probably worth it for certain indoor situations. Mandating them outside is laughable. And we should temper our expectations of what they can do, which is minimal.

 

[espola]

We’ve had this discussion before. The issue with masks is in a macro level they have very little benefit fir a variety of reasons: people use them imperfectly, they reuse the masks or use poor cloth ones, they use them for too long and get them wet, undermines distancing, they use them for situations they weren’t intended (visiting grandma indoors for 3 hours at Christmas). No where in the world has the mask mandates been able to change the direction of a curve and neighboring county analysis shows repeatedly very little benefit if any. So small benefit: might keep some people going into the grocery store from catching something or at the hair salon if the infected dresser is standing behind them.

There is a cost: psychological damage particularly to small children and people with certai disorders such as autism (but yeah you don’t care about the autistic), societal harm since we are social creatures that read faces (but yeah you’re an I so don’t understand that), the costs of the masks (they aren’t free) and the environmental damage

So yeah they are probably worth it for certain indoor situations. Mandating them outside is laughable. And we should temper our expectations of what they can do, which is minimal.

You're babbling.

 

[Grace T.]

You're babbling.

Your car as usual is all over the road. At least it’s a cute one!

 

[dad4]

We’ve had this discussion before. The issue with masks is in a macro level they have very little benefit fir a variety of reasons: people use them imperfectly, they reuse the masks or use poor cloth ones, they use them for too long and get them wet, undermines distancing, they use them for situations they weren’t intended (visiting grandma indoors for 3 hours at Christmas). No where in the world has the mask mandates been able to change the direction of a curve and neighboring county analysis shows repeatedly very little benefit if any. So small benefit: might keep some people going into the grocery store from catching something or at the hair salon if the infected dresser is standing behind them.

There is a cost: psychological damage particularly to small children and people with certai disorders such as autism (but yeah you don’t care about the autistic), societal harm since we are social creatures that read faces (but yeah you’re an I so don’t understand that), the costs of the masks (they aren’t free) and the environmental damage

So yeah they are probably worth it for certain indoor situations. Mandating them outside is laughable. And we should temper our expectations of what they can do, which is minimal.

That isn't a cost benefit analysis.

That's a long complaint list from someone who doesn't wanna.

And the scientific community believes you are flat out wrong about the benefits side.

Though I am amused at your lecturing a math geek about the needs of the autistic. You don't get through math grad school without meeting several.

 

[Grace T.]

That isn't a cost benefit analysis.

That's a long complaint list from someone who doesn't wanna.

And the scientific community believes you are flat out wrong about the benefits side.

Though I am amused at your lecturing a math geek about the needs of the autistic. You don't get through math grad school without meeting several.

Yes it is. Part of the problem is you and your ilk apparently don’t know how to do one

Grad school huh? Try putting one on a screaming 12 year old like my bestie is forced to do...they’ve just taken to avoiding taking him anywhere indoors because of it and when their grandmother died drove to Indiana because they couldn’t fly. These aren’t the aspberger high functioning ones....these are people with perception and nerve issues. Way to show compassion there if you know so many.

 

[Hüsker Dü]

Yes it is. Part of the problem is you and your ilk apparently don’t know how to do one

Grad school huh? Try putting one on a screaming 12 year old like my bestie is forced to do...they’ve just taken to avoiding taking him anywhere indoors because of it and when their grandmother died drove to Indiana because they couldn’t fly. These aren’t the aspberger high functioning ones....these are people with perception and nerve issues. Way to show compassion there if you know so many.

Now you’re just pouting and whining. A paper on the wall does not in itself signify intelligence. 50% of the lawyers in this world were in the bottom half of their class.

 

[crush]

A Pepe’ meme? Really? How many times will you be lied to and still persist on believing?

 

[crush]

Here you go Husker, EOTL ((and all his other aliases)), The Great Espola ((Mr Magoo)) and Long Game ((EOTL)). Do you see what I see? Do you read this as a bit odd for our children to comprehend? Please do help me understand the truth because I confused. Thank you in advance

 

[Grace T.]

Now you’re just pouting and whining. A paper on the wall does not in itself signify intelligence. 50% of the lawyers in this world were in the bottom half of their class.

Haha. That’s funny. I’d put up my credentials and iq against yours any day of the week. Pm me yours and we’ll exchange. Come on. It will be fun.

 

[crush]

My mommy said I was a cowboy when I was young Grace. This song is so me Grace. I was a nice guy wrapped in a sucker....lol! You and Hound have owned these fools for almost a year. You win sister and Hound wins too. Great job to the both of you. Now, sit back and get ready for some serious eye opening things that will make even you realize you were very wrong about one person. Actually, many many will see how wrong they were. As long as we admit were wrong, we can grow.

 

[watfly]

It's one thing to be an expert in a field, and it's quite another to be able to predict what will happen. The ability to predict what will happen in a dynamic system implies that you have a deep understanding. Physicists have a deep understanding of planetary motion and are able to accurately predict orbits. Chemists understand many chemical reactions and, based on initial conditions, can accurately predict the outcome of reactions. Epidemiologists, on the other hand, are more like well-trained investors. They know a lot about viruses. They are knowledgeable as to how many viruses have progressed historically. Yet they still struggle to accurately predict how an individual virus will behave in the population over time. They are better at predicting than the average person, but they get it wrong, regularly. Just as stocks have their own unique characteristics, so do viruses. Both are also affected by the ever-changing environment. The list of variables is long. It's a complex, dynamic system and it appears to me that many epidemiologists that speak publically are too self-assured and not humble enough about what they don't understand. What I find most annoying though is that, after the fact, we get correlations. Now, it's housing density and/or variants. Coincidentally, all these after-the-fact correlations support their initial contention that wasn't supported by the outcome.

If an "expert" could predict the future they wouldn't be on TV providing an opinion, working for the CDC, doing research at some prestigious university and least of all posting on a soccer forum. They would be sitting on the beach of their own private island sipping Mojitos.

 

[Grace T.]

My mommy said I was a cowboy when I was young Grace. This song is so me Grace. I was a nice guy wrapped in a sucker....lol! You and Hound have owned these fools for almost a year. You win sister and Hound wins too. Great job to the both of you. Now, sit back and get ready for some serious eye opening things that will make even you realize you were very wrong about one person. Actually, many many will see how wrong they were. As long as we admit were wrong, we can grow.

Whose the person? Dad4? I like dad4....it’s just at this point he should be seriously questioning the company he keeps...other than espola, husker and notf (if he’s even a sock puppet separate from husker) he’s pretty much alone out there now and taking ridiculous positions like don’t do cost/benefit analysis on health policy. Kind of mirrors the health experts who are also increasingly alone out there....you know there’s an issue when even California throws your school reopening plan in the trash and it takes days of agonizing and you still cant say fully vaccinated grandparents can’t hug their grandkids. Eotl? Even dad4 can’t stand him. Notf? Sorry the c word is a red line kind of like throwing the n word...no go. Husker? Sorry anyone that obsessed with a throw away band you’ve got to wonder about...I don’t go around calling myself “The bangles”. Magoo? He’s actually quite bright and in his day must have been fearsome...sad but it happens to us all.

Ps I love cowboys. In an alternate universe I’m Amy Fleming.

 

[crush]

If an "expert" could predict the future they wouldn't be on TV providing an opinion, working for the CDC, doing research at some prestigious university and least of all posting on a soccer forum. They would be sitting on the beach of their own private island sipping Mojitos.

Or just sitting on the beach waiting patiently for the big shoe to drop. Love is the key watfly, not hate and division. Were all in this together. You cant be dualistic anymore, only American. This is not Right vs Left, or this over that or my way is the only way ((Unless you have the keys to eternity)). Sit back and do not retaliate and let the pros handle things.