Bad News Thread

[Grace T.]

I'm pretty sure that teachers and support staff (schools) are in the higher priority groups for the vaccine so that schools can be safely (for the adults) opened again. That's the stated position of the Pres./WH at least and is seen (from their statements) as a main priority. So I don't understand why you think this bleeds into the next school year. That strikes me as hyperbolic TBH.

As an aside, my kids are in private $chool$ and have been open for most of the current school year. There have been few outbreaks, but mask wearing and bubbles are mandatory and non-negotiable. If you don't comply, you are done. That's easier to do in a private school obv. Some kids are online due to personal choice (high risk / fear etc.). So I'm in the kids should be in school "camp" fwiw.

Because both San Francisco and LAUSD have announced they are planning hybrid for next year. LAUSD also has a new testing protocol (which sadly our school pioneered and the County fell in love with) requiring the testing of students (I posted the video up above). Also the mask thing is likely to be required even in the private schools until kid's are vaccinated, and under the CDC school "reopening" plan students are required to maintain distance even in the blue.

Kids will be in school next school. However, if you are in a public school in a large blue city it's not going to look anything like "normal" and some of that is even going to bleed into the private schools in these cities. Even Biden yesterday said he's hoping for a return to normal generally, if we are lucky, at this time NEXT year. And if you have an exposure, your kid is still going to be sent home until they are tested, which means disruptions.

 

[Desert Hound]

Abbott is being a political twit.

He has the data on masks, he knows they work, and he repeals the mask rule anyway.

Why? He needs a distraction. Repealing a mask mandate is easier than talking about the near complete failure of the electric grid and natural gas infrastructure.

So Abbott repeals the mask rule to distract people from their broken water pipes.

Let's save the above for future reference.

TX won't see any spike due to the mask mandate gone and everything opening up and the vaccine being out.

CA will lag again and months from now the data will show (again) that they may as well have followed FL and TX.

 

[crush]

 

[crush]

 

[watfly]

Abbott is being a political twit.

He has the data on masks, he knows they work, and he repeals the mask rule anyway.

Why? He needs a distraction. Repealing a mask mandate is easier than talking about the near complete failure of the electric grid and natural gas infrastructure.

So Abbott repeals the mask rule to distract people from their broken water pipes.

The same things were said last year when Georgia decided to open up. It was called a an exercise in human sacrifice by the media. The lockdowners on this site said just to wait a few weeks and deaths will skyrocket in Georgia and then it didn't happen and then lockdowners said wait a couple months, still didn't happen. So here we are.

Personally, I might of waited maybe a month more in Texas, but someone has to be first. Plus he is only eliminating the statewide mandate, Counties are still allowed to implement mask mandates and restrictions as they see fit, which is how it should be.

 

[Hüsker Dü]

It's a smart bet for him. If the apparent downward trend in infections continues, he looks like a prophet. Otherwise, he can tough it out along with the no-mask "freedom" crowd.

That and to deflect away from people, children freezing to death due in part to his malfeasance.

 

[Hüsker Dü]

The same things were said last year when Georgia decided to open up. It was called a an exercise in human sacrifice by the media. The lockdowners on this site said just to wait a few weeks and deaths will skyrocket in Georgia and then it didn't happen and then lockdowners said wait a couple months, still didn't happen. So here we are.

Personally, I might of waited maybe a month more in Texas, but someone has to be first. Plus he is only eliminating the statewide mandate, Counties are still allowed to implement mask mandates and restrictions as they see fit, which is how it should be.

Compared to other states, Georgia's coronavirus numbers look low. That's because the state separated the cases based on if it was a PRV or antigen test.

'Probable Deaths': Ga. changes how it reports COVID-19 numbers by the type of test used

Compared to other states, Georgia's coronavirus numbers look low. That's because the state separated the cases based on if it was a PRV or antigen test.

www.11alive.com

 

[watfly]

Compared to other states, Georgia's coronavirus numbers look low. That's because the state separated the cases based on if it was a PRV or antigen test.

'Probable Deaths': Ga. changes how it reports COVID-19 numbers by the type of test used

Compared to other states, Georgia's coronavirus numbers look low. That's because the state separated the cases based on if it was a PRV or antigen test.

www.11alive.com

I suspect we will be truing up definitions and numbers on Covid for years to come, as we have with other viruses. I suspect we will also find some intentional misreporting in some instances like we've seen in New York.

 

[dad4]

Let's save the above for future reference.

TX won't see any spike due to the mask mandate gone and everything opening up and the vaccine being out.

CA will lag again and months from now the data will show (again) that they may as well have followed FL and TX.

Why bother? Despite all the evidence, you refuse to admit there were problems in AZ. You've got the highest death rate west of the Mississippi, and you still can't say that maybe AZ messed up.

You're still stuck comparing rates between regions that don't even share the same variant.

Why would your reaction to TX numbers be any different? You won't pay any more attention to TX data than you pay to AZ data.

 

[Desert Hound]

Why would your reaction to TX numbers be any different? You won't pay any more attention to TX data than you pay to AZ data.

You wont see any spike in TX as you allude to. I am just reminding you now as we look at the data in a month or two.

You have a habit of predicting DOOM for a number of states. States that have about the same numbers today as CA.

So a question for you since you like to talk about AZ.

When AZ had the same cases per million as CA...why was AZ death rate so much higher?

Or today CA is at 90k cases per million and AZ is at 112K cases per million (24% difference). But the death rate is vastly different (65% difference)?

Why is that?

--

By the way I like how you have moved to the variant (goalpost move) is the reason CA is now equal with states you said were doing it all wrong.

Might I remind you that CA's numbers started skyrocketing at the same time pretty much everywhere else in the the Northern Hemisphere did as well. I think at that time you blamed that rise (in other countries/states) on people going to bars and restaurants.

You are a person who likes math. You have a hard time it seems looking at real world data and squaring that with what you think the math tells you will happen...ie masks and lockdowns should prevent the rise in cases.

 

[Grace T.]

You wont see any spike in TX as you allude to. I am just reminding you now as we look at the data in a month or two.

You have a habit of predicting DOOM for a number of states. States that have about the same numbers today as CA.

So a question for you since you like to talk about AZ.

When AZ had the same cases per million as CA...why was AZ death rate so much higher?

Or today CA is at 90k cases per million and AZ is at 112K cases per million (24% difference). But the death rate is vastly different (65% difference)?

Why is that?

--

By the way I like how you have moved to the variant (goalpost move) is the reason CA is now equal with states you said were doing it all wrong.

Might I remind you that CA's numbers started skyrocketing at the same time pretty much everywhere else in the the Northern Hemisphere did as well. I think at that time you blamed that rise (in other countries/states) on people going to bars and restaurants.

You are a person who likes math. You have a hard time it seems looking at real world data and squaring that with what you think the math tells you will happen...ie masks and lockdowns should prevent the rise in cases.

Hey Hound, apparently you are engaged in "Neanderthal thinking". My 2 cents, the main driver of this really is seasonality. Mobility and variants do play a roll but it's still unclear how much. Florida probably escaped the worst because the bug doesn't seem to like the tropics (otherwise Brazil and India should have been wholesale slaughter houses). The Texas order, less for the masks and business closures which really haven't made much of a difference anywhere (or what's happening in the EU shouldn't be happening right now), won't help with mobility as people return to "normal", but it really shouldn't make a difference once the 65+ have received their first shot (the ifr will be on the floor then). While the Northeast probably doesn't have that much time, Texas probably has some time that in the end it won't make much of an impact. Still, I agree it was a political move to distract from other problems in Texas.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1367192228762963971

 

[dad4]

You wont see any spike in TX as you allude to. I am just reminding you now as we look at the data in a month or two.

You have a habit of predicting DOOM for a number of states. States that have about the same numbers today as CA.

So a question for you since you like to talk about AZ.

When AZ had the same cases per million as CA...why was AZ death rate so much higher?

Or today CA is at 90k cases per million and AZ is at 112K cases per million (24% difference). But the death rate is vastly different (65% difference)?

Why is that?

--

By the way I like how you have moved to the variant (goalpost move) is the reason CA is now equal with states you said were doing it all wrong.

Might I remind you that CA's numbers started skyrocketing at the same time pretty much everywhere else in the the Northern Hemisphere did as well. I think at that time you blamed that rise (in other countries/states) on people going to bars and restaurants.

You are a person who likes math. You have a hard time it seems looking at real world data and squaring that with what you think the math tells you will happen...ie masks and lockdowns should prevent the rise in cases.

Changing your opinion in response to new information is called "thought", not "moving the goalpost".

Just so we are clear, I am not claiming that TX will see a third hill this spring. I do believe that states with open indoor dining but no mask mandate will see a slower decline than states with similar seroprevalence but the opposite policies.

When doing that comparison, you should limit it to places with the same dominant variant. Probably means we will have to exclude FL if, as expected, the British variant continues to grow there.

Willing to discuss AZ yet?

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Hey Hound, apparently you are engaged in "Neanderthal thinking".

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1367192228762963971

Damn, that Geico actor is going to be ANGRY.

 

[Desert Hound]

Changing your opinion in response to new information is called "thought", not "moving the goalpost".

Just so we are clear, I am not claiming that TX will see a third hill this spring. I do believe that states with open indoor dining but no mask mandate will see a slower decline than states with similar seroprevalence but the opposite policies.

When doing that comparison, you should limit it to places with the same dominant variant. Probably means we will have to exclude FL if, as expected, the British variant continues to grow there.

Willing to discuss AZ yet?

You didn't answer my AZ question.

I would also point out that basically up to now you have been making comparisons of different states/countries all the time.

I find it intellectually dishonest that now your preferred state/strategy has failed vis a vis states being open, that you now claim regions are different.

When we discussed schools opening you were very happy to say well in Israel there was a report...

Or you were happy to compare CA vs GA early on, etc.

Etc.

 

[dad4]

You didn't answer my AZ question.

I would also point out that basically up to now you have been making comparisons of different states/countries all the time.

I find it intellectually dishonest that now your preferred state/strategy has failed vis a vis states being open, that you now claim regions are different.

When we discussed schools opening you were very happy to say well in Israel there was a report...

Or you were happy to compare CA vs GA early on, etc.

Etc.

Why does AZ have very high deaths but only moderately high cases?

Because AZ doesn't run enough tests.

You have 820k known cases and only 4.2m tests run. That is almost a 20% positivity rate. You're skimping on testing and missing a ton of cases.

A good way to test this would be to look at a seroprevalence study in AZ. If the problem is anemic testing, seroprevalence will be high. If the problem is a more frail population, seroprevalence will be low.

 

[Desert Hound]

My 2 cents, the main driver of this really is seasonal

I think this is likely the case.

Still, I agree it was a political move to distract from other problems in Texas.

I am sure politics played a part. I am guessing they were about to open anyway.

Now I haven't looked this up, but I am guessing these windmills were in place before Abbot became Gov. As such he isn't tied to the issue so to speak.

 

[espola]

I think this is likely the case.



I am sure politics played a part. I am guessing they were about to open anyway.

Now I haven't looked this up, but I am guessing these windmills were in place before Abbot became Gov. As such he isn't tied to the issue so to speak.

What about the windmills?

 

[kickingandscreaming]

You didn't answer my AZ question.

I would also point out that basically up to now you have been making comparisons of different states/countries all the time.

I find it intellectually dishonest that now your preferred state/strategy has failed vis a vis states being open, that you now claim regions are different.

When we discussed schools opening you were very happy to say well in Israel there was a report...

Or you were happy to compare CA vs GA early on, etc.

Etc.

It's one thing to be an expert in a field, and it's quite another to be able to predict what will happen. The ability to predict what will happen in a dynamic system implies that you have a deep understanding. Physicists have a deep understanding of planetary motion and are able to accurately predict orbits. Chemists understand many chemical reactions and, based on initial conditions, can accurately predict the outcome of reactions. Epidemiologists, on the other hand, are more like well-trained investors. They know a lot about viruses. They are knowledgeable as to how many viruses have progressed historically. Yet they still struggle to accurately predict how an individual virus will behave in the population over time. They are better at predicting than the average person, but they get it wrong, regularly. Just as stocks have their own unique characteristics, so do viruses. Both are also affected by the ever-changing environment. The list of variables is long. It's a complex, dynamic system and it appears to me that many epidemiologists that speak publically are too self-assured and not humble enough about what they don't understand. What I find most annoying though is that, after the fact, we get correlations. Now, it's housing density and/or variants. Coincidentally, all these after-the-fact correlations support their initial contention that wasn't supported by the outcome.

 

[dad4]

I think this is likely the case.



I am sure politics played a part. I am guessing they were about to open anyway.

Now I haven't looked this up, but I am guessing these windmills were in place before Abbot became Gov. As such he isn't tied to the issue so to speak.

i
Neglecting to weatherproof the windmills was a small part of the outages.

The bigger problems were isolating their grid, and not requiring companies to have equipment to dry the natural gas before transporting it.

If there is water in the gas, in cold weather it can freeze as the gas decompresses. Then you lose pressure in the whole natural gas system, and have neither heat nor electricity.

Texas let companies choose whether to install equipment that dries the gas. And they isolated their grid so they couldn't import power.

In all, not really windmills. More a question of the last 20 years of Texas energy regulation and deregulation.

And not Abbott as an individual, but definitely his party. And it is very awkward for him to fix, since re-regulating the energy industry would earn him a lot of enemies.

So, like any politician, he left the problems in place changed the subject.

 

[espola]

It's one thing to be an expert in a field, and it's quite another to be able to predict what will happen. The ability to predict what will happen in a dynamic system implies that you have a deep understanding. Physicists have a deep understanding of planetary motion and are able to accurately predict orbits. Chemists understand many chemical reactions and, based on initial conditions, can accurately predict the outcome of reactions. Epidemiologists, on the other hand, are more like well-trained investors. They know a lot about viruses. They are knowledgeable as to how many viruses have progressed historically. Yet they still struggle to accurately predict how an individual virus will behave in the population over time. They are better at predicting than the average person, but they get it wrong, regularly. Just as stocks have their own unique characteristics, so do viruses. Both are also affected by the ever-changing environment. The list of variables is long. It's a complex, dynamic system and it appears to me that many epidemiologists that speak publically are too self-assured and not humble enough about what they don't understand. What I find most annoying though is that, after the fact, we get correlations. Now, it's housing density and/or variants. Coincidentally, all these after-the-fact correlations support their initial contention that wasn't supported by the outcome.

It's a little early to state with any assurance that a disease that has only been detected for a little over a year, and has been running like wildfire through the world's population all that time, has any "seasonal" characteristics.

 

[crush]