Bad News Thread

Comparing covid era restaurant closures against trend lines is just good analysis. I have no idea how the comparison works out, but it is absolutely a good way to look at the question.

What you did in the above post was to ignore the argument and instead attack the person. Again.
I'm not a part of that argument. I'm making an observation based on an observation watfly made about what the modus operandi for him is. As ou know, I have an interest in such things. People interest me far more than numbers.
 
Comparing covid era restaurant closures against trend lines is just good analysis. I have no idea how the comparison works out, but it is absolutely a good way to look at the question.

What you did in the above post was to ignore the argument and instead attack the person. Again.

An old philosopher once said that when you tell a lie about someone, that person knows right away that you are a liar.
 
Bragging?

You haven't answered my question about Fauci's emails, so I will assume the answer is "no". Therefore you are relying on someone else's opinions about them. Is it fair to ask who that is? Is t Ben Shapiro?

I haven't read all the emails. I have read article and twitter posts, both left and right, from a variety of sources about them. Know you don't believe it but my reading sources range from the Guardian and Nation, to New Republic, to Washington Post, to National Review, to the Federalist and Ben Shapiro.
 
I haven't read all the emails. I have read article and twitter posts, both left and right, from a variety of sources about them. Know you don't believe it but my reading sources range from the Guardian and Nation, to New Republic, to Washington Post, to National Review, to the Federalist and Ben Shapiro.
p.s. if you are going to read just 1, read the physicist that wrote to Fauci at the start. It's another example of the scrappy outsider getting it right and absolutely nailing everything (coming waive, failure of containment, China cover up, lab leak, the mutations, the time frame for the start, US outbreak already in progress and running ahead of Italy). Fauci declines to read it on the grounds it's too long. I don't really blame him for that. Even if he cultivated a reputation for reading everyone's emails including some woman who was afraid to get on a plane for work, and even answered her. But still, this physicist just nailed everything while Fauci was flailing.
 
Dad4

For your benefit:

I know. The disease itself was a huge drain on the economy, and OZ/NZ avoided that part of the damage. Places which did a go early, go hard approach seem to have done better economically. CA will start doing better as case rates near zero and offices reopen.

I wonder if we will get our act together on vaccines before the bad weather hits in the fall. I think 617.2 (india/delta) variant has the numbers it needs to be able to grow in the high seroprevalence, low vaccination rate parts of the country- especially when it gets a boost for bad weather.
 
p.s. if you are going to read just 1, read the physicist that wrote to Fauci at the start. It's another example of the scrappy outsider getting it right and absolutely nailing everything (coming waive, failure of containment, China cover up, lab leak, the mutations, the time frame for the start, US outbreak already in progress and running ahead of Italy). Fauci declines to read it on the grounds it's too long. I don't really blame him for that. Even if he cultivated a reputation for reading everyone's emails including some woman who was afraid to get on a plane for work, and even answered her. But still, this physicist just nailed everything while Fauci was flailing.

Erik Nielsen?
 
Places which did a go early, go hard approach seem to have done better economically.
What?

There have been an abundance of reports showing red states have done better.






etc etc.
 
What?

There have been an abundance of reports showing red states have done better.






etc etc.

In fairness to him, he has been consistent in saying either go early (though which requires multiple lockdowns and even in places like Taiwan and South Korea failed to completely quell) or don't go very much....Newsom's half-in half-out approach being disastrous.

I know. The disease itself was a huge drain on the economy, and OZ/NZ avoided that part of the damage. Places which did a go early, go hard approach seem to have done better economically. CA will start doing better as case rates near zero and offices reopen.

I wonder if we will get our act together on vaccines before the bad weather hits in the fall. I think 617.2 (india/delta) variant has the numbers it needs to be able to grow in the high seroprevalence, low vaccination rate parts of the country- especially when it gets a boost for bad weather.

Seems to already be happening in the UK where cases are rising, but only slightly. Infections delayed through lockdown+India variant- vaccination- weather effect. Their vaccination approach is also slightly different than ours, prioritizing first doses instead of 2nd. deaths and hospitalizations still on the floor.
 
By the way what is interesting about the Fauci emails coming to light is this.

He was initially not too concerned about Covid.

Why is that important?

Because the press blamed the Prez at the time for not being concerned enough, didn't do enough etc.

Who is the expert on these matters that advises the Administration?

The press again didn't play neutral observer in all of this. Their reporting for the most part mirrored political talking points. And unfortunately this type of reporting has the terrible effect of dividing the country. But it sells papers and ad revenue...so carry on!
 
In fairness to him, he has been consistent in saying either go early (though which requires multiple lockdowns and even in places like Taiwan and South Korea failed to completely quell) or don't go very much....Newsom's half-in half-out approach being disastrous.
Not sure he advocated or don't go very much. He was and has been a strong lockdown proponent.
 
What?

There have been an abundance of reports showing red states have done better.






etc etc.
So much to sort through, particularly long term. It's not just the lockdown restrictions, its also the social policies that were implemented that may not go away, like enhanced unemployment. We pay more than $15 to start at an entry level position and we can't seem to find qualified individuals. And when I say qualified, I mean someone who will show up to work on time and do their job. Seems everyone we look to hire has a restraining order or some criminal record. Those we do hire are only lasting a couple weeks before quitting while maximizing their sick leave during the short time period.

My biggest concern though is the ramifications to our society from the educational interruption. Particularly for the underprivileged.
 
By the way what is interesting about the Fauci emails coming to light is this.

He was initially not too concerned about Covid.

Why is that important?

Because the press blamed the Prez at the time for not being concerned enough, didn't do enough etc.

Who is the expert on these matters that advises the Administration?

The press again didn't play neutral observer in all of this. Their reporting for the most part mirrored political talking points. And unfortunately this type of reporting has the terrible effect of dividing the country. But it sells papers and ad revenue...so carry on!

Yeah, but not all on him, except to the extent you blame his gullibility. He seemed to believe the Chinese propaganda at first that it was all containable, and then when they switched to lockdown immediately, seemed to buy in 100% to that. Same as he bought into the Chinese explanations about it not being a lab leak.

Not sure he advocated or don't go very much. He was and has been a strong lockdown proponent.

He's said before go early or (in his mind) not at all if you are concerned about the economy. I agree between those 2 choices he favors go early, go hard.

Incidentally the rules in Nevada right now are even less sciency than California. No masks, bars and indoor dining open, no elevator capacity limits and players tables in the casino open, but night clubs still shut. No valet service, no room service except in select hotels, plastic barriers still up, relentless cleaning of surfaces still up. We know why: They care more about the appearance of safety to sell the casinos to people.
 
Nevada was perfectly happy to run a continuous covid breeding ground throughout the pandemic. Same as Florida wanted to get the spring break money. Or Louisiana wanting the Mardi Gras money last year.

In all cases, you have a state wanting an economic gain, and willing to take high risks with tourist health to get it. It’s why we needed national standards and travel restrictions last year. States won’t do it. Not many places are willing to damage their tourist industry to save out of state lives.
 
In all cases, you have a state wanting an economic gain, and willing to take high risks with tourist health to get it. It’s why we needed national standards and travel restrictions last year. States won’t do it. Not many places are willing to damage their tourist industry to save out of state lives.
I'm not a constitutional expert but I'm pretty sure our government can't prohibit interstate travel or can implement a nationwide quarantine. Remember that Cuomo had a shit fit when Trump even mentioned banning travel from NY. How many Democrat governors would have tolerated a travel ban imposed by Trump...actually the Republican governors wouldn't have tolerated it either. Unfortunately in the US, responding to a pandemic can't be separated from political ideologies. I don't think your suggestions pass the legal, or reality test.

Let's be perfectly honest here, there is far more correlation between lockdowns and the economy, then there is lockdowns and Covid. At least, in the US and non-island countries.
 
Nevada was perfectly happy to run a continuous covid breeding ground throughout the pandemic. Same as Florida wanted to get the spring break money. Or Louisiana wanting the Mardi Gras money last year.

In all cases, you have a state wanting an economic gain, and willing to take high risks with tourist health to get it. It’s why we needed national standards and travel restrictions last year. States won’t do it. Not many places are willing to damage their tourist industry to save out of state lives.
But Hawaii chose to shoot itself in the head so it's not true states won't do it. They all make a choice. Florida chose to minimize restrictions, particularly those low risk restrictions, which was also a choice. My complaint about Nevada is that it's choices are stupid: it's doing the security theatre but allowed the high risk stuff to go on (even now, post-vaccination there's still a lot of theater).

I agree with Watfly...with federal government even if the courts allow it to pass constitutionally, there was no political way it would have been possible. I personally would have gotten great satisfaction seeing all the well off New Yorkers stuck in New York city during the pandemic, but Cuomo and the Ds would have exploded had Trump tried that.
 
I'm not a constitutional expert but I'm pretty sure our government can't prohibit interstate travel or can implement a nationwide quarantine. Remember that Cuomo had a shit fit when Trump even mentioned banning travel from NY. How many Democrat governors would have tolerated a travel ban imposed by Trump...actually the Republican governors wouldn't have tolerated it either. Unfortunately in the US, responding to a pandemic can't be separated from political ideologies. I don't think your suggestions pass the legal, or reality test.

Let's be perfectly honest here, there is far more correlation between lockdowns and the economy, then there is lockdowns and Covid. At least, in the US and non-island countries.
Not only can the government restrict interstate travel, but they have before. Travel restrictions and travel quarantines during pandemics used to be the norm.

You’re probably right that people would have screamed to no end. But locking down NYC in March 2020 would have meant a lot fewer people died in other states in April and May. Most of the April cases outside of NYC were due to rich New Yorkers flying to vacation homes and bringing the virus with them.
 
Not only can the government restrict interstate travel, but they have before. Travel restrictions and travel quarantines during pandemics used to be the norm.

You’re probably right that people would have screamed to no end. But locking down NYC in March 2020 would have meant a lot fewer people died in other states in April and May. Most of the April cases outside of NYC were due to rich New Yorkers flying to vacation homes and bringing the virus with them.
Here is an interesting article about interstate travel restrictions. I don't think it's cut and dried as either of us think, but the way I read it (if its correct) is that you can't restrict travel of or quarantine otherwise non-exposed and healthy people. You really have to err on the side of freedom, not fear.

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