Bad News Thread

dad4 said:
You really think the people dying in this pandemic were all out partying? The octogenarians snuck out of the rest home to go clubbing?

It works more like this: Susan gets covid at Hound’s bar. Susan’s boyfriend Kevin gets covid from Susan. Kevin gives covid to his roommates. One of Kevin’s roommates, Robert, is a janitor at Oak View Retirement Home. Robert goes room to room, carrying out the trash and vacuuming. Now 15 seniors at Oak View have covid. Three days later Robert’s test comes back positive and Oak View locks down. They get the outbreak under control, but only after 45 infections and 4 deaths.

None of the 4 had any “choice” in the matter.
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Dad4 + Espola= Espola

This is the biggest bullshit tracing lie ever btw. Did you come up with this BS from one of your contact tracing pals or out of your little brain? BTW, it was the AC Tech Guy that brought Rona to Hound's Bar & Grill. He snuck in from the back because Hound's Bar has super strict guidelines at the front door.
 
Glitterhater said:
Does Hound really have a bar? If so, I can see why his stance is so strongly where it is.
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I run a biz that was severely affected by the virus. So when people run around and say shut your biz, lose everything, I say screw that.

When they try to shut schools I get more grumpy. Thankfully my kids avoid public school and didn't have to deal with those antics.
 
dad4 said:
You realize that this phrase applies in both directions?

You wonder how I can care so little about bar owners, waitresses, and hotel maids.

I wonder how you can care so little about the elderly, the overweight, and the immunocompromised.

I just hope enough of us get the vaccine that it all becomes moot.
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It won't if you care about cases and want zero deaths. Even if we control it in the US, there's still lots of seeding that can go on from the rest of the world which won't be finished vaccinating until at least 2023. Then there was a recent Vox video piece (thought about you) during it which points out that if the source was an animal transfer (as opposed to a lab escape/engineering) then there's also a redseed vector there for more variants.
 
Desert Hound said:
I run a biz that was severely affected by the virus. So when people run around and say shut your biz, lose everything, I say screw that.

When they try to shut schools I get more grumpy. Thankfully my kids avoid public school and didn't have to deal with those antics.
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Sorry to hear that bro. I was tempted with a boiler room type of job selling loans over the phone but I just can;t do it. The drive to LA would kill me Hound. My old college friend is killing it doing loans in some high rise office building downtown LA. Making $240,000 a year he says but he just started 90 days ago so he's only on pace for two-forty. Dude leaves way South OC at 4am up to LA and leaves LA at 4pm to come home. No virtual sales job. Nope, cheeks in the seat 5 days a week. Only for producers. He get's home at 6pm. 14 man hours a day x 5= 70 hours a week. He said to make the big bucks you got to be committed. He even works some weekends, so two jobs basically. I heard his shit for 30 minutes and then told him he really has two jobs and on pace to make $120,000 each. He got pissed off. I told him to add it up and stop bragging and just keep it to yourself because it sounds like hell on earth. He looks horrible but told me he wants to retire in three years, not 6 and that is why he's working so hard. I'm not trying to be mean but he's at least 100 pounds over weight. I know he pulls into Jack in the box every morning on his way into LA. Then of course he hits Micky Dees on the way home. Comes home to an empty house ((wife left him years ago)) and does the same shit the next day and over and over. This guy, who I will call Hal, is one lonely dude. I love him to death but he's a mess. He took his vaccine shots :)
 
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dad4 said:
You really think the people dying in this pandemic were all out partying? The octogenarians snuck out of the rest home to go clubbing?

It works more like this: Susan gets covid at Hound’s bar. Susan’s boyfriend Kevin gets covid from Susan. Kevin gives covid to his roommates. One of Kevin’s roommates, Robert, is a janitor at Oak View Retirement Home. Robert goes room to room, carrying out the trash and vacuuming. Now 15 seniors at Oak View have covid. Three days later Robert’s test comes back positive and Oak View locks down. They get the outbreak under control, but only after 45 infections and 4 deaths.

None of the 4 had any “choice” in the matter.
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You’re also assuming that Oak View doesn’t put certain policies in place to protect its Vulnerable clients. If Robert doesn’t like those policies, Robert can make a choice.

We aren’t going to change each other’s minds here.
 
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Grace T. said:
It won't if you care about cases and want zero deaths. Even if we control it in the US, there's still lots of seeding that can go on from the rest of the world which won't be finished vaccinating until at least 2023. Then there was a recent Vox video piece (thought about you) during it which points out that if the source was an animal transfer (as opposed to a lab escape/engineering) then there's also a redseed vector there for more variants.
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Reseeding doesn't matter if you have enough immunity. The new clusters fizzle out.

The exception would be if the new seed happens to be resistant to your vaccine. One more reason to help fund international vaccinations.
 
dad4 said:
Reseeding doesn't matter if you have enough immunity. The new clusters fizzle out.

The exception would be if the new seed happens to be resistant to your vaccine. One more reason to help fund international vaccinations.
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The latter. Life tries to survive and 2 years is a really long time considering how much its mutated already.

It's also not just a money issue but a size issue, given the billions in India and China. The Chinese vaccine also doesn't work so well which adds to the problem.
 
Grace T. said:
The latter. Life tries to survive and 2 years is a really long time considering how much its mutated already.

It's also not just a money issue but a size issue, given the billions in India and China. The Chinese vaccine also doesn't work so well which adds to the problem.
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Time is the wrong way to look at mutations. Don’t try to measure it in mutations per day. A 20 year old disease with very few hosts will also have had very few chances to mutate. (ebola) A 1 year old disease with a billion hosts will have had a billion chances to mutate. (covid)

Measure it in mutations per total person infected. So, how many more people will be infected before we can get vaccine everywhere? And how many people have been infected so far?

By that measure, the world has had maybe 1 billion people infected and 2 billion people live in countries willing to manage it. Which leaves 5 billion people to get vaccinated, get sick, or get lucky. If you take a swag of 2 billion hosts, 2 billion vaccinated, and 1 billion lucky, then we’ve already seen perhaps 1/3 of the total mutations which will develop. (because we’ve seen 1/3 of the cases)
 
dad4 said:
Time is the wrong way to look at mutations. Don’t try to measure it in mutations per day. A 20 year old disease with very few hosts will also have had very few chances to mutate. (ebola) A 1 year old disease with a billion hosts will have had a billion chances to mutate. (covid)

Measure it in mutations per total person infected. So, how many more people will be infected before we can get vaccine everywhere? And how many people have been infected so far?

By that measure, the world has had maybe 1 billion people infected and 2 billion people live in countries willing to manage it. Which leaves 5 billion people to get vaccinated, get sick, or get lucky. If you take a swag of 2 billion hosts, 2 billion vaccinated, and 1 billion lucky, then we’ve already seen perhaps 1/3 of the total mutations which will develop. (because we’ve seen 1/3 of the cases)
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“2 billion people live in countries willing to manage it”...euphemism for China and some of the other mainland Asian countries+ Australia and New Zealand and Taiwan? The issue with China is their vaccine doesn’t work very well...from that data in Chile maybe not at all.

I agree you have to look at number of infections. But with vaccinations you need to look at time because it allows those infections to occur. In reality the world won’t be finished vaccinating until 2023 at the earliest which gives people a lot of time to get infected. I saw a regression study the other day but now can’t find it but it was pretty neat...you would have appreciated the math...it argued given the mutation curves (since at least 8 variants were already at play in January 2020) case 1 of covid had to have taken place in winter 2018-2019. again purely a math model and we all know how those have worked out.

as you pointed out even with a million doses per day it would take India years to fully vaccinate.
 
Don't agree with everything in the article, but it makes some good points, arguing that lockdowns-political correctness-current adverse risk child rearing is all connected with a desire for safety. Some parts made me smile because it reminds me of someone we all know and love.

www.spiked-online.com

Why lockdown has become a lifestyle

The culture of fear has made a lifetime of quarantine look attractive.
www.spiked-online.com www.spiked-online.com
 
Grace T. said:
“2 billion people live in countries willing to manage it”...euphemism for China and some of the other mainland Asian countries+ Australia and New Zealand and Taiwan? The issue with China is their vaccine doesn’t work very well...from that data in Chile maybe not at all.

I agree you have to look at number of infections. But with vaccinations you need to look at time because it allows those infections to occur. In reality the world won’t be finished vaccinating until 2023 at the earliest which gives people a lot of time to get infected. I saw a regression study the other day but now can’t find it but it was pretty neat...you would have appreciated the math...it argued given the mutation curves (since at least 8 variants were already at play in January 2020) case 1 of covid had to have taken place in winter 2018-2019. again purely a math model and we all know how those have worked out.

as you pointed out even with a million doses per day it would take India years to fully vaccinate.
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I would think Serum Institute of India can produce far more than a million doses per day.

But yes, the problem is scale. Doing something 8 billion times will be slow. Fortunately, we have the option of building capacity over the next year. I hope we are doing it already.
 
Interesting what's happening in India shouldn't be happening. Seroprevalence in some areas was 50%. Should be topping out. This guy things there's natural immunity breakthrough (i.e., reinfection) but he's optimistic vaccine breakthroughs are low.

 
Grace T. said:
Interesting what's happening in India shouldn't be happening. Seroprevalence in some areas was 50%. Should be topping out. This guy things there's natural immunity breakthrough (i.e., reinfection) but he's optimistic vaccine breakthroughs are low.

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Interesting too myocarditis is being seen as an issue mostly with under 30 men getting vaccinated. May wind up they need to do the j&j and az vaccines but women the mRNA due to blood clots
 
Grace T. said:
The downturn really coincided with the Johnson and Johnson halt. It’s not the sole cause because the red states are seeing a bigger downturn than the blue states. But it was a stunning own goal that didn’t help things now that we are hitting vaccine reluctance. It doesn’t help either that the blood clots hit otherwise healthy younger women. From a risk analysis point of view they have less of a danger with covid and there’s a bit of a free rider problem (if everyone else gets vaccinated I’ll be fine) so they might figure why risk myself taking an experimental drug. Polio on the other hand struck down otherwise healthy people so everyone was at risk even if the early shots carried a risk themselves. A person under 40 has a less than .1% chance of dying from covid. A person under 40 though could have been crippled by polio ruining their life (which for some is worse than death)
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Just a brutally bad decision. Issue an advisory as England did and move on. April 13th - the peak of the 7-day average, it was paused. All downhill from there.

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dad4 said:
I take it you keep posting this because you want to undermine anything else we hear from epidemiologists.
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I am not sure how to take this. So, if I criticize Trump, or any politician, I am undermining all politicians? This IS personal - for Osterholm. He's a guy that Cuomo attempted to use for credibility in his policymaking and he has our current President's ear. He deserves some scrutiny. If the "eggheads" who are doing good work don't call out the ones getting all the attention with wildly incorrect predictions, someone has to do it. Also, it's not over. He was the one who said 6-14 weeks, not me. Maybe that was his strategy though. If he's right, he's amazing, if he's wrong, so much time has gone by no one has the attention span to follow through. My guess is the media generally loves him so few will remind everyone of this very bad miss.
 
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