@dad4 FYI - New York, as well documented also had heavy restaurant restrictions over winter. Didn't stop their spike either. In fact their current rate is still higher than both Texas and Florida, even after Spring Break. Yes, I know, restaurants are now open at 75%. Good for them. Obviously shutting them down wasn't a big help. Hell, it could even be worse knowing Cuomo now.
Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
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@dad4 FYI - New York, as well documented also had heavy restaurant restrictions over winter. Didn't stop their spike either. In fact their current rate is still higher than both Texas and Florida, even after Spring Break. Yes, I know, restaurants are now open at 75%. Good for them. Obviously shutting them down wasn't a big help. Hell, it could even be worse knowing Cuomo now.
It’s worth looking at Spain.
That “winter wave” started in August. Around the time much of Europe was going on holiday and reopening. Let’s call it the vacation/reopening wave, because that fits the timing better.
The vacation/reopening wave peaked in late October, 2-3 weeks after they closed indoor dining.
Under that indoor dining ban, cases continued to decline until early December. Meanwhile, the central US had no mask mandates, no dining ban, and the worst case rates in the world.
At least for Aug-December, Spain is a clear case study in why you should wear a good mask and close your indoor dining.
Dec-Jan things got bad again. I suspect Christmas travel made things worse. And it’s worth asking whether the regions relaxed as numbers fell.
Glitterhater
SILVER ELITE
I still think that even if we'd have left everything open, restaurants, personal care, small biz, etc., still would have taken a massive hit. With the messaging that was being put out on how this thing spreads & how serious it can be, close to half the population would still have stayed home more often in some capacity. Especially in more affluent areas, (ie Tech,) where locking down doesn't mean much to them. They get take out, do Instacart, hire tutors, work from home.
This whole thing has exposed just how wide the "gap" has gotten and still is. I fear the effects are going to be felt for a long time.
I am an introvert, so I tease that i've been training for this pandemic my whole life- I know that is not the same for everyone. Saw my son's Oncologist today, (whom I trust more than any other physician, as he also has training in infectious disease,) and he still said it's important to wear a mask and distance - NOT HIDE OUT, but be smart. Why is it so hard for people to just "be smart"?
This whole thing has exposed just how wide the "gap" has gotten and still is. I fear the effects are going to be felt for a long time.
I am an introvert, so I tease that i've been training for this pandemic my whole life- I know that is not the same for everyone. Saw my son's Oncologist today, (whom I trust more than any other physician, as he also has training in infectious disease,) and he still said it's important to wear a mask and distance - NOT HIDE OUT, but be smart. Why is it so hard for people to just "be smart"?
Bruddah IZ
DA
You’ve been nothing but suspect. Please continue.
Spains mask mandate has been in tact throughout. At a minimum you’ll concede the mask mandate failed to prevent 2 waves in spain? Despite the restrictions which came online in October they got the 3rd dec-January wave which you now explain away with “well Christmas”.
sure. masks alone are not enough even for summer. You need something else, too. (Numerically, a 45% reduction in transmission is significant, but not sufficient, against a disease with R0=3. You need some kind of additional reductions in transmission.)
I don’t pretend to understand the dec3-Jan30 wave. I think Christmas added to it, but I doubt even Spain starts holiday travel on Dec 01. Nor does b.1.1.7 seem likely that early. It‘s not consistent with the sequencing data.
That’s why I suggested looking at the regions. The double bump makes me ask “what did people change at the end of November? Something changed. It went from a nice exponential decline straight into a quick growth toward a higher peak. Seems a bit quick to be nothing but weather.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
This is interesting.
www.cnn.com
Closed-circuit television shows one of the people infected on the flight and two people infected in the hotel were never in direct contact and were not even outside their rooms at the same time, the researchers said.
"Nevertheless, footage showed that during routine testing on day 12, which took place within the doorway of the hotel rooms, there was a 50-second window between closing the door to the room of case-patient C and opening the door to the room of case-patients D and E. Therefore, we hypothesized that suspended aerosol particles were the probable mode of transmission in this instance, and that the enclosed and unventilated space in the hotel corridor probably facilitated this event," they wrote.
Coronavirus spread on flight, in hotel corridor, New Zealand study finds
The coronavirus spread on an international flight, in a hotel corridor and then to household contacts despite efforts to isolate and quarantine patients, New Zealand researchers reported Thursday.
www.cnn.com
Closed-circuit television shows one of the people infected on the flight and two people infected in the hotel were never in direct contact and were not even outside their rooms at the same time, the researchers said.
"Nevertheless, footage showed that during routine testing on day 12, which took place within the doorway of the hotel rooms, there was a 50-second window between closing the door to the room of case-patient C and opening the door to the room of case-patients D and E. Therefore, we hypothesized that suspended aerosol particles were the probable mode of transmission in this instance, and that the enclosed and unventilated space in the hotel corridor probably facilitated this event," they wrote.
My guess would mean mobility. But that would mean that while closing things like indoor dining will help, short of oz/nz/Europe at the beginning of this by keeping people locked in their homes, the government restrictions don’t help as much as people just freaking out and deciding to be more careful on their own. It’s probably why Belgium’s curve inflects downward before their government puts in place lockdowns
Tells us a few things:This is interesting.
Coronavirus spread on flight, in hotel corridor, New Zealand study finds
The coronavirus spread on an international flight, in a hotel corridor and then to household contacts despite efforts to isolate and quarantine patients, New Zealand researchers reported Thursday.
Closed-circuit television shows one of the people infected on the flight and two people infected in the hotel were never in direct contact and were not even outside their rooms at the same time, the researchers said.
"Nevertheless, footage showed that during routine testing on day 12, which took place within the doorway of the hotel rooms, there was a 50-second window between closing the door to the room of case-patient C and opening the door to the room of case-patients D and E. Therefore, we hypothesized that suspended aerosol particles were the probable mode of transmission in this instance, and that the enclosed and unventilated space in the hotel corridor probably facilitated this event," they wrote.
1. despite airline propaganda studies airlines were always a likely source of spread. The fact that the planes kept flying meant govt wasn’t serious about actually containing this
2. Masks might have helped but did not stop the spread, probably because of the length of time. If we were serious about masks we would have used them as mitigation for short term contacts
3. Countries are not serious about containment if they don’t control their borders
4. It’s aerosolized. Indoor situations like this are high danger areas...if aerosolized anything short of a medical grade mask will be of limited help.
This is interesting.
Coronavirus spread on flight, in hotel corridor, New Zealand study finds
The coronavirus spread on an international flight, in a hotel corridor and then to household contacts despite efforts to isolate and quarantine patients, New Zealand researchers reported Thursday.
Closed-circuit television shows one of the people infected on the flight and two people infected in the hotel were never in direct contact and were not even outside their rooms at the same time, the researchers said.
"Nevertheless, footage showed that during routine testing on day 12, which took place within the doorway of the hotel rooms, there was a 50-second window between closing the door to the room of case-patient C and opening the door to the room of case-patients D and E. Therefore, we hypothesized that suspended aerosol particles were the probable mode of transmission in this instance, and that the enclosed and unventilated space in the hotel corridor probably facilitated this event," they wrote.
I wonder if they looked at the vents as well. That's how I caught it at the start of all this and seems to have been a factor in the cruise ship outbreaks.
Glitterhater
SILVER ELITE
So with that article, how do you all feel about staying in hotels?
And I don't mean hanging at the bar, milling about in the lobby, etc. Just checking in and heading straight to your room- always wearing a mask.
And I don't mean hanging at the bar, milling about in the lobby, etc. Just checking in and heading straight to your room- always wearing a mask.
How do you know it was the vents?
Chelsea dad g09
SILVER
I'm generally out of town for work, living out of a suitcase. I've been out of town 10 of the past 13 months and havent caught it. Maybe I've just been lucky but this includes 4 weekends in Az with the family in hotels...who knows.
Person tested positive. Our doors are on opposite sides of a wall and different corridors and exit so I didn't get exposed there. Our main contact is that we share the same vent that splits into a y. Other possibility was the rest room but I didn't ever see her there but possible.
It's the same as any other indoor situation (indoor dining, gym, etc). Here would be my own hierarchy of questions I'd ask for family.
1. Am I in a vulnerable group? If yes, go to 3. If no go on.
2. Am I a generally fearful, cautious person or less risk adverse? If yes, go on, if no skip to 6
3. Am I fully vaccinated and have sufficient time to develop antibodies? If no, and answered yes to 1, don't go. If no and answered yes to 2 go on. If yes, go.
4. Do I have at least one dose of the vaccine and have given time for antibodies to develop? If no, go to 5. If yes, go to 6.
5. Do I wear a decent mask and is there a mask mandate around me? If yes, go to 6, if no, don't go.
6. Do I feel comfortable with the possibility I might still come down with it despite my precautions, but know I will likely not die, but still might get it? If yes, go to 7. If no, don't go.
7. How important is this to me? If not, dont. If yes, go.
Based on the NZ Study, it tells me nothing can be done about the transmission, masks or not. Good luck trying to control a virus that is aerosolized. You're only protection is vaccination.
Vaccination is whole other subject. Nobody has any idea what the long term affects are yet. While I received mine, I will hold off on my daughters until we know more.
Vaccination is whole other subject. Nobody has any idea what the long term affects are yet. While I received mine, I will hold off on my daughters until we know more.
Sketchy.
Yo fool, WTF is up with you dude? Do you care about all the girls who will one day become a woman?
