Bad News Thread

[dad4]

I think it clearly is weather but we don't understand really the mechanisms at work. It's not as easy as cold weather ---> people go indoors. Otherwise, you have to somehow explain away why outbreaks happen at the same time across latitudes (SoCal and Florida in the summer 2020 for example) despite not being directly connected. I agree mobility is another factor. Density (Vermont or Norway for example), is another factor, though it doesn't seem to be helping either this time around. You can't cite AU/NZ/China....I think we both agree that very robust lockdowns are effective, where we disagree is the morality, legality and the utility (given the cost/benefit exchange)

Agree it is complicated, but we know most of the factors by now. You have to pay attention to masks, weather, daylight hours, staying outside, indoor gathering, indoor dining, pop density, vaccine distribution, median age, housing patterns, and mobility. You only get bad results when you try to look at one factor while excluding the others.

With respect to “very robust” lockdowns, I am not sure we agree what those words mean, or whether it counts as draconian.

I have no problem with very large fines for indoor gatherings. 1% of income plus 0.1% of assets would be enough to make most people move outside. To you, it probably sounds like Stasi are kicking in the door.

If that fine sounds high, remember that the current system has resulted in around a half million deaths and ten million unemployed. A few $5000 fines sounds not so bad in that context.

 

[Desert Hound]

I have no problem with very large fines for indoor gatherings. 1% of income plus 0.1% of assets would be enough to make most people move outside. To you, it probably sounds like Stasi are kicking in the door.

If that fine sounds high, remember that the current system has resulted in around a half million deaths and ten million unemployed. A few $5000 fines sounds not so bad in that context.

I always like to check in to see what your "Bad Idea of the Day" is.

You set a high mark for today.

You only get bad results when you try to look at one factor while excluding the others.

This quote is particularly rich. You have constantly harped on one factor all year long. Any guesses as to which one? OK...I will help. Indoor dining.

 

[crush]

I always like to check in to see what your "Bad Idea of the Day" is.

You set a high mark for today.

This quote is particularly rich. You have constantly harped on one factor all year long. Any guesses as to which one? OK...I will help. Indoor dining.

Hound with a great add on to the socal soccer jungle. Dad 4 get's that award everyday. EOTL came on strong early yesterday and had some takes but then went race hater with race bait added to the race hook. I will give him credit for not mentioning my dd or every fathers dds on here. I would stop with that bullshit right about now. Not a good way to make a point. I told everyone back in 2020, that 2021 will be the year for the woman, the girls and all the kids.

 

[Grace T.]

Agree it is complicated, but we know most of the factors by now. You have to pay attention to masks, weather, daylight hours, staying outside, indoor gathering, indoor dining, pop density, vaccine distribution, median age, housing patterns, and mobility. You only get bad results when you try to look at one factor while excluding the others.

With respect to “very robust” lockdowns, I am not sure we agree what those words mean, or whether it counts as draconian.

I have no problem with very large fines for indoor gatherings. 1% of income plus 0.1% of assets would be enough to make most people move outside. To you, it probably sounds like Stasi are kicking in the door.

If that fine sounds high, remember that the current system has resulted in around a half million deaths and ten million unemployed. A few $5000 fines sounds not so bad in that context.

Again the problem is not all the factors carry an equal weight. You’ve consistently put too much weight on some factors while not enough on others which is why you got Michigan v Texas wrong.

I agree with hound this is your bad idea of the day. At my own church it would have meant at least 5 families getting that sanction. It’s not politically feasible particularly when one parties sacred vows (the border, the protests) go untouched and politicians like newsom are doing the French laundry

 

[Grace T.]

Again the problem is not all the factors carry an equal weight. You’ve consistently put too much weight on some factors while not enough on others which is why you got Michigan v Texas wrong.

I agree with hound this is your bad idea of the day. At my own church it would have meant at least 5 families getting that sanction. It’s not politically feasible particularly when one parties sacred vows (the border, the protests) go untouched and politicians like newsom are doing the French laundry

Cows. The biggest problem with your plan is enforcement. OZ/Europe basically did it by strict lockdowns and roadblocks...just banning indoor gatherings gives the police no way to police this except loud parties where there are multiple noise complaints by neighbors. You’d basically have to rely on an army of Karen’s to inform on their neighbors for hosting dinner parties and visits to grandma.

 

[Desert Hound]

This is for @Grace T. since she refers to the red pill frequently.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Agree it is complicated, but we know most of the factors by now. You have to pay attention to masks, weather, daylight hours, staying outside, indoor gathering, indoor dining, pop density, vaccine distribution, median age, housing patterns, and mobility. You only get bad results when you try to look at one factor while excluding the others.

Looking is fine. Mandating is where you cause problems worse then the one you think you can fix given the high survival rate.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

I have no problem with very large fines for indoor gatherings. 1% of income plus 0.1% of assets would be enough to make most people move outside. To you, it probably sounds like Stasi are kicking in the door.

Sounds like Costco with their faulty mask.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

If that fine sounds high, remember that the current system has resulted in around a half million deaths and ten million unemployed. A few $5000 fines sounds not so bad in that context.

1% of Costco's income and 0.1% of their assets is a large number for multiple large gatherings at Costco's nationwide. How should we proceed when Costco passes those cost on to the consumer? Hayek had people like you in mind when he said "the curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they know about what they imagine they can design".

 

[dad4]

Cows. The biggest problem with your plan is enforcement. OZ/Europe basically did it by strict lockdowns and roadblocks...just banning indoor gatherings gives the police no way to police this except loud parties where there are multiple noise complaints by neighbors. You’d basically have to rely on an army of Karen’s to inform on their neighbors for hosting dinner parties and visits to grandma.

Like it or not, the army of busy-bodies exists. If you had an enforced rule against indoor gatherings, people would drop a dime on their neighbors. Besides, you can just look for the cars. If you’re too lazy to hold your party outside, your guests probably drove to get there. You’ll miss the 2 family dinners, but that’s kind of the point.

It’s hard to say if I missed Michigan because I undervalued weather or because I didn’t guess that Michigan would open up as wide as they did. I suspect it was a big dose of both.

The MI reopening is one more case where my political tea leaves are worthless. I keep thinking “no one is that stupid” and being proven wrong.

I’m still baffled by the politics of New York’s and California’s reopening plans. By now, it ought to be clear that we should open schools before gyms, bars, and restaurants. But that does not seem to be what we are doing. We sacrifice our long term economic health for the sake of a night on the town.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Like it or not, the army of busy-bodies exists. If you had an enforced rule against indoor gatherings, people would drop a dime on their neighbors. Besides, you can just look for the cars. If you’re too lazy to hold your party outside, your guests probably drove to get there. You’ll miss the 2 family dinners, but that’s kind of the point.

It’s hard to say if I missed Michigan because I undervalued weather or because I didn’t guess that Michigan would open up as wide as they did. I suspect it was a big dose of both.

The MI reopening is one more case where my political tea leaves are worthless. I keep thinking “no one is that stupid” and being proven wrong.

I’m still baffled by the politics of New York’s and California’s reopening plans. By now, it ought to be clear that we should open schools before gyms, bars, and restaurants. But that does not seem to be what we are doing. We sacrifice our long term economic health for the sake of a night on the town.

I'm not shocked that you're baffled. Your socioeconomics is about as tunnel-visioned as your statistics. You should be a politician.

 

[Grace T.]

Like it or not, the army of busy-bodies exists. If you had an enforced rule against indoor gatherings, people would drop a dime on their neighbors. Besides, you can just look for the cars. If you’re too lazy to hold your party outside, your guests probably drove to get there. You’ll miss the 2 family dinners, but that’s kind of the point.

It’s hard to say if I missed Michigan because I undervalued weather or because I didn’t guess that Michigan would open up as wide as they did. I suspect it was a big dose of both.

The MI reopening is one more case where my political tea leaves are worthless. I keep thinking “no one is that stupid” and being proven wrong.

I’m still baffled by the politics of New York’s and California’s reopening plans. By now, it ought to be clear that we should open schools before gyms, bars, and restaurants. But that does not seem to be what we are doing. We sacrifice our long term economic health for the sake of a night on the town.

Remember the term "Karen" arose from white women calling the police on people of color. No problem there. As I've told you before, it's just not realistic to expect some unmarried 20 year old guy to go a year plus without hooking up with someone. The idea of getting neighbors to inform on neighbors is positively Soviet and would have long term consequences that would last for years to come.

Like it or not, you do have a totalitarian streak. It's very Buzz and Star Command.

 

[dad4]

Remember the term "Karen" arose from white women calling the police on people of color. No problem there. As I've told you before, it's just not realistic to expect some unmarried 20 year old guy to go a year plus without hooking up with someone. The idea of getting neighbors to inform on neighbors is positively Soviet and would have long term consequences that would last for years to come.

Like it or not, you do have a totalitarian streak. It's very Buzz and Star Command.

I figure that using “Karen” to refer to a busy-body is no more acceptable than using “Maria” or “Tyrone” to refer to some other negative personality trait. It’s one of those things we can do without.

”Busy-body” works just fine.

-Buzz

 

[MARsSPEED]

FYI, and please use common sense, as brought to you by the CDC-

0.0004% of all CoVid Deaths are under the age 17
4.4% of all CoVid Deaths are under the age of 50
95.6% of all CoVid Deaths are above age 50
80% of all CoVid Deaths are above age 65
58.6% of all CoVid Deaths are above age 75
(Average life expectency in the US is age 78)
31% of all CoVid deaths are above age 85

It is a fact that if pass away and test positive for CoVid, the death is included in the overall number. 94% of all CoVid deaths are are paired with an average of 3.8 underlying conditions, whether heart conditions, pneumonia, diabetes, dementia, and even suicide. (Again, per the CDC). Now, looking at the percentages of age of death combined with underlying conditions, ask your self if it's possible or how many of these reported deaths were a result of CoVid with underlying conditions, or perhaps an underlying conditions death with a positive CoVid test.

Now, with that information, we know seniors are all currently getting vaccinated, essentially eliminating the massive death toll we've seen in the near future. Or will it...the yearly morbidity rate may say something different...but anyways. Yes, we'll have a few idiots that are anti-vaxxers and probably learn there lesson the hard. I got my vax with the goal of stopping the chance of spread although I wear my mask everywhere it is required. More on that later.

So kids vs. teachers...
0.0004% of all CoVid Deaths are under the age 17
19.4% of all CoVid Deaths are between the age of 18-64.
In 2019, the Flu killed more kids than CoVid and Flu COMBINED in 2020.
Positive tests of ages 25-65 outnumber positives in children at a rate nearly 4x meaning teachers are more likely to catch CoVid from the break room or grocery store than they would be teaching. Thank your local grocery store worker the next time you see them!

Aaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnddddddddddd, anyone care to guess how much the suicide rate increased and what the numbers are? Well we don't know yet and will not know for awhile. But I'm willing to bet it could hundreds more than CoVid killed. What about childhood depression? What about falling behind? Both well documented. Thanks Teach!

Oh, and what about youth sports?
Yeah, 0.0004% of all CoVid deaths for those under 18 plus the fact Flu killed more kids in 2019 than Flu and CoVid combined in 2020 did? I don't need to say anything else do I? By the way, out here in the east, Jefferson Cup has been going on for about 4 weeks. Even had some teams from SoCal attend I believe. No restrictions on numbers either. Guess what? No CoVid outbreaks either.

Now my favorite! Masks!!!!!! (Disclaimer - I follow mask rules and mandates)
Not sure if you remember but Mask mandates have been around nationwide for a while now, long before the beginning of November. Same goes for indoor dining along with many other restrictions. If these mandates where thought to work so well, THEN WHY DID WE SEE A DRASTIC RISE IN INFECTIONS FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY?????? Oh, I'll tell you why because they haven't bothered to tell you. Every year we see a drastic rise in virus and bacteria infections during the same months. Same goes for deaths. No different than any other year. So I ask you, did all of these mandates have a drastic change in numbers?

But, but, but, the Brazilian Variant!!!!!!!
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, well shame on me. Our government just experienced power like they never have before. You think they aren't going to want to keep. Bitch, please.

#thinkcritically

 

[Grace T.]

I figure that using “Karen” to refer to a busy-body is no more acceptable than using “Maria” or “Tyrone” to refer to some other negative personality trait. It’s one of those things we can do without.

”Busy-body” works just fine.

-Buzz

It sort of now both refers to both a busy-body (such as a person calling out another one for not wearing masks) and someone who feels entitled (like the person complaining about their rights to not wear a mask). Karens all around. Still, the problem arose from white people complaining about POC and informing on them to the police. Same issue with your plan, among the various problems.

 

[dad4]

FYI, and please use common sense, as brought to you by the CDC-

0.0004% of all CoVid Deaths are under the age 17
4.4% of all CoVid Deaths are under the age of 50
95.6% of all CoVid Deaths are above age 50
80% of all CoVid Deaths are above age 65
58.6% of all CoVid Deaths are above age 75
(Average life expectency in the US is age 78)
31% of all CoVid deaths are above age 85

It is a fact that if pass away and test positive for CoVid, the death is included in the overall number. 94% of all CoVid deaths are are paired with an average of 3.8 underlying conditions, whether heart conditions, pneumonia, diabetes, dementia, and even suicide. (Again, per the CDC). Now, looking at the percentages of age of death combined with underlying conditions, ask your self if it's possible or how many of these reported deaths were a result of CoVid with underlying conditions, or perhaps an underlying conditions death with a positive CoVid test.

Now, with that information, we know seniors are all currently getting vaccinated, essentially eliminating the massive death toll we've seen in the near future. Or will it...the yearly morbidity rate may say something different...but anyways. Yes, we'll have a few idiots that are anti-vaxxers and probably learn there lesson the hard. I got my vax with the goal of stopping the chance of spread although I wear my mask everywhere it is required. More on that later.

So kids vs. teachers...
0.0004% of all CoVid Deaths are under the age 17
19.4% of all CoVid Deaths are between the age of 18-64.
In 2019, the Flu killed more kids than CoVid and Flu COMBINED in 2020.
Positive tests of ages 25-65 outnumber positives in children at a rate nearly 4x meaning teachers are more likely to catch CoVid from the break room or grocery store than they would be teaching. Thank your local grocery store worker the next time you see them!

Aaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnddddddddddd, anyone care to guess how much the suicide rate increased and what the numbers are? Well we don't know yet and will not know for awhile. But I'm willing to bet it could hundreds more than CoVid killed. What about childhood depression? What about falling behind? Both well documented. Thanks Teach!

Oh, and what about youth sports?
Yeah, 0.0004% of all CoVid deaths for those under 18 plus the fact Flu killed more kids in 2019 than Flu and CoVid combined in 2020 did? I don't need to say anything else do I? By the way, out here in the east, Jefferson Cup has been going on for about 4 weeks. Even had some teams from SoCal attend I believe. No restrictions on numbers either. Guess what? No CoVid outbreaks either.

Now my favorite! Masks!!!!!! (Disclaimer - I follow mask rules and mandates)
Not sure if you remember but Mask mandates have been around nationwide for a while now, long before the beginning of November. Same goes for indoor dining along with many other restrictions. If these mandates where thought to work so well, THEN WHY DID WE SEE A DRASTIC RISE IN INFECTIONS FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY?????? Oh, I'll tell you why because they haven't bothered to tell you. Every year we see a drastic rise in virus and bacteria infections during the same months. Same goes for deaths. No different than any other year. So I ask you, did all of these mandates have a drastic change in numbers?

But, but, but, the Brazilian Variant!!!!!!!
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, well shame on me. Our government just experienced power like they never have before. You think they aren't going to want to keep. Bitch, please.

#thinkcritically

Which states actually required masks and closed indoor dining from October through March?

It’s kind of the bare minimum for prevention, and not even CA did both consistently.

 

[Grace T.]

Which states actually required masks and closed indoor dining from October through March?

It’s kind of the bare minimum for prevention, and not even CA did both consistently.

Los Angeles did. Didn't help much.

 

[Kicker4Life]

Which states actually required masks and closed indoor dining from October through March?

It’s kind of the bare minimum for prevention, and not even CA did both consistently.

I’ll take LA County for $1000!
- Never opened Indoor Dining
- Consistent Mask’s Mandates
- Closed Beaches and Outdoor Parks
- Lead the State in Cases and Deaths

So now list your variable excuses:
- Housing Policy - was in place BEFORE Covid- OUT
- People didn’t listen - a result of the policy making and leadership (or lack there of) - OUT
- Open Mexico borders - VALID but why only LA Co and not San Diego?
- Improper Mask use - OUT was no different than any other County or State.

Did I miss anything?

 

[dad4]

Los Angeles did. Didn't help much.

LA also has a high R variant and a million people living like sardines. The fact that you got through winter with only 45% infected is a sign that the masks and dining closures helped rather a lot.

If LA had a weaker intervention, like the Dakotas, it seems likely you would have had an outcome worse than the Dakotas. 70% or 80% infected, instead of 45%. Those evil masks and dining closures probably reduced your deaths by about half. So, it helped.

Can you name anywhere else which actually enforced a mask mandate and closed indoor dining from October through March?

 

[Grace T.]

LA also has a high R variant and a million people living like sardines. The fact that you got through winter with only 45% infected is a sign that the masks and dining closures helped rather a lot.

If LA had a weaker intervention, like the Dakotas, it seems likely you would have had an outcome worse than the Dakotas. 70% or 80% infected, instead of 45%. Those evil masks and dining closures probably reduced your deaths by about half. So, it helped.

Can you name anywhere else which actually enforced a mask mandate and closed indoor dining from October through March?

Yes, Spain. Toughest mask mandate in Europe...no gaiters and bandanas for them. Indoor dining closed at the beginning of October, relaxed in January. Still got a winter wave.

And just to quibble: 1. not all Los Angeles is packed as sardines, 2. as others have pointed out density is baked in....fix density is not pandemic health policy, 3. it's not just density but also forcing people into work (areas where people have to go into work like in Oxnard in Ventura County have higher rates than the Conejo despite roughly the same spread of condos, single family homes and apartment complexes), and 4. I think your numbers for the Dakotas are overly inflated...North Dakota's cases are rising slightly again and they are average at roughly 200 cases a day...with vaccination on top of that, if they were at 80% infected they should really be at herd immunity by now....my guess is the number is closer to 60% but that's just pulling something out of my ass.