Bad News Thread

According to la times la unified has set late April for school reopening. Kid will be live for just a few weeks before summer break.
 
dad4 said:
Shush. Grownups are talking.
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Then why are you here?

Your "solutions/concerns" over the past year have been laughable.

A few gems.

Keep schools closed. Even after other countries were doing it in the summer you would find a news story here and there to show us all how concerning it was.

Then worried about outdoor sports. Then maybe having each team tested before each tournament.

Maybe the funniest one? Claiming mask usage brought the curve down in AZ. Remember that one? And when I and others showed you the curve was going down before the mask mandate you still claimed it was the mandate that did it.

Your fixation on restaurants/bars.

When pretty much every country in the N. Hemisphere started seeing a rise in cases in the fall...all within roughly the same 2-3 weeks you claimed it must be because people are going to bars/restaurants again.

You stated earlier today they basically you still are not going out. Why? The data shows the young have essentially zero risk. I also assume you are at an age where the date shows little to no risk either. As a math guy besides being able to do a problem, you should also be able to interpret the data as well and realize what the risk is or isn't.
 
Grace T. said:
I don’t really know. Has anyone done a stay outside rule? There are certain weather limitation and with say kids in school. But it’s not what australia did, which is what we know works. Australia basically did China lite. And hey if it’s stay outside no reason for people to go around wearing masks except in the limited circumstances of going to the grocery, doctor of pharmacy. The biggest problem though is the factories and slaughterhouses. Australia got to near zero by shutting those too for short periods of time.
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That's kind of my point. China lite worked. USA normal did not work. We should use AU/NZ as a starting point.

Now, take China lite, move it outside, and keep the masks. You still have R<1, but it is more sustainable.

You are assuming school is indoors. Why not hold high school outside in CA? Kid brings a folding chair and a clipboard. Mock it if you like, but it's a better idea than zoom.

And China lite is certainly better than pulling an AZ. If the whole country had Arizona's death rate, we would have a quarter million more covid deaths than we have already. Those are some pretty expensive margaritas at Ristorante del Hound.
 
dad4 said:
That's kind of my point. China lite worked. USA normal did not work. We should use AU/NZ as a starting point.

Now, take China lite, move it outside, and keep the masks. You still have R<1, but it is more sustainable.

You are assuming school is indoors. Why not hold high school outside in CA? Kid brings a folding chair and a clipboard. Mock it if you like, but it's a better idea than zoom.

And China lite is certainly better than pulling an AZ. If the whole country had Arizona's death rate, we would have a quarter million more covid deaths than we have already. Those are some pretty expensive margaritas at Ristorante del Hound.
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Because a. You can’t move high transmission locations like meat plants or factories outdoors which gives you Germany, b. Many of Australia’s moves are unconstitional here and c. You’d have to use force against both right wing and left wing treasures— shuttering business/free movement/free speech v violent suppression of blm and hard shut of the border. No thanks on the China lite. Not worth it then, especially not worth it now. Only appeals to the zero risk people on fantasyland.

ps your authoritarian streak is showing
 
dad4 said:
Why not hold high school outside in CA? Kid brings a folding chair and a clipboard. Mock it if you like, but it's a better idea than zoom.
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Why not hold school INDOORS. Lots of other states/countries are already doing it without issue.

The data shows zero risk for the under 24 age group.

Look at the data.
 
Grace T. said:
Because a. You can’t move high transmission locations like meat plants or factories outdoors which gives you Germany, b. Many of Australia’s moves are unconstitional here and c. You’d have to use force against both right wing and left wing treasures— shuttering business/free movement/free speech v violent suppression of blm and hard shut of the border. No thanks on the China lite. Not worth it then, especially not worth it now. Only appeals to the zero risk people on fantasyland.

ps your authoritarian streak is showing
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These days, we have enough tests to run daily covid tests for every meat packing plant worker. We also have enough masks to give every meat packing worker an N95 every day. It was an issue over the summer, but there are not enough cold room workers to pose a problem now.

Why is it so hard to visit with friends outside? You keep acting like, if your dinner party gets replaced with Mah Jong at a picnic table, then the secret police have arrived to burn your Vaclev Havel books.

Just meet people outside and show a bit of imagination.
 
When the risk of death from COVID-19 infection is nearly 1900X higher for the octogenarian population relative to those 29 years and under, then the point of across-the-board house arrest is self-evident: namely, in his “wisdom,” Governor Cuomo (and the infectious disease cartel for which he shills) have taken the 7.5 million New Yorkers under 30 years of age hostage, and made them involuntary instruments of a state-imposed maneuver to protect the elderly and infirm by stopping the contagion.

Stated differently, up to 20% or more of these 7.5 million New Yorkers under 30 years have already been infected based on the state’s own antibody studies, and doubtless 50-80% of those so infected have been asymptomatic, while most of the rest have recovered from a mild illness in the normal course of shaking off the flu. Actually, there have only been 78 reported COVID deaths in this entire age cohort.

So even if only 10% of the under 30 population has been infected, the implied IFR (infected-fatality rate) is just 0.01% (78 deaths/750,000 cases) – or barely more than the odds of being struck by lightning.
 
.....our experience as humans with Corona virus is, we've now been able to map back 780 years of experience with this viral family in our annual experiences. And the current consumer is very familiar with the common cold. There's about 120 common viruses that are related to the syndromes that we think of as described as the common cold. So that'd be upper respiratory congestion, cough, sore throat, these kinds of things. So the Corona viruses play an important part in that 120 families of viruses involved in those upper respiratory cold like syndromes.
 
In the last 20 years, we can point to three very specific events in which we have a Corona virus that shifts its behavior from a specific upper respiratory experience to one that's more involving the deep lungs and vascular systems and those present clinically much different finding. The first one was called SARS that really appeared coming out of China and South Asia in 2001, 2002, and then burned itself out importantly within 18 to 24 months, never to really reappear in its same form because humanity had reached this new homeostasis with it. And not just humanity, but water systems, soil systems, air systems, everything had come into balance with that new species within the Corona family, if you will, or that new element of genomic information. Because we can't really, speciate a non-living organism like a virus. So instead it's more of a description of a family of genetic codes.
 
And so we had a variant that created SARS, which presented very uniquely in the sense that it didn't present with elevated white blood cell counts. It wasn't an initial presentation of fever, actually presented with blue patients. And so those on the front lines in China and otherwise described patients showing up hypoxic and blue appearing as if they were at suddenly high altitude. And then they would be hospitalized and no matter how much oxygen they gave them, they couldn't really get their bloodstream to carry the oxygen. So it wasn't a lack of oxygen. It was a lack of oxygen carrying capacity. And then the descriptions from the front lines of SARS said that within two days of presenting blue, they would start to fill their lungs with fluid and then develop secondary pneumonia and vascular complications and then die within a few weeks in the more severe cases.
 
And so of those, we had 9,000 or so very well-documented cases of those blue patients who went hypoxic, had that whole series of events happened and they scattered across the world. What we weren't tracking at the time was all of the people that interacted with that virus and didn't present that way. And so people that presented more like the common cold or the flu didn't get counted in the SARS event, only those that really presented with life-threatening and high mortality events were tracked.
 
Interestingly, as we fast forward then to, nine, 10 years to 2011, 2012, we find the emergence of another Corona virus that was termed MERS, a Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome. And it's important that the SARS, which was a severe acute respiratory syndrome or MERS, Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome, or now SARS-CoV-2, or COVID-19 as it is now, are descriptions of syndromes, not the actual virus. So SARS-CoV-2 is now our description of the virus and COVID-19 is the description of the syndrome, the clinical syndrome.
 
And so when we say there's, some number of COVID-19 cases, that doesn't mean that we even know that the virus is present in that person's bloodstream at that moment, or is having any contribution to that person's syndrome. What we're saying is there's, cases showing up that have syndromes of, loss of smell, loss of taste, some headache, low intermittent fevers that can course through for a week or two. Those are the mild syndromes that would not have been counted in the SARS outbreak and are being counted now because we're using a laboratory science tool called PCR, which has never been designed or implemented as a diagnostic tool because it's terrible as a diagnostic tool because it picks up so much noise within the virome.
 
And so anybody with Corona virus fragments or protein production in their bloodstream from something like the common cold or other viruses that makes them more proteins can have false positives. So we've seen false positive rates with PCR for COVID-19 syndrome, as far as being specific to an actual SARS-CoV- 2 protein, the false positives are anywhere between 30 and 80%. And so we've seen true positives being as low as 19% and as high as maybe 70%. And so, in other words, when a test comes back positive, it's almost a flip of the coin really as to whether or not the virus is even present in enough concentrations to be even involved in the syndrome that we're looking at.
 
And so interestingly with SARS, as mentioned in 2002, it burned out in two years, and MERS, same thing, it was gone within the human experience within two years. And so we can predict very well that this is going to also be gone in two years. And so, as I've been talking about since February with the Chinese cases is, we don't need to clamor for a vaccine because by the time we even find an effective vaccine, we will have come into balance with this virus and the next one's not going to look just like this and whatever vaccine we develop this, isn't going to work this year.
 
We know this for flu vaccine, right? Every single year, we have to create a new flu vaccine. And every single year, it never stops flu from occurring. We have never changed the penetration of flu for the vaccines that we put out. The only thing that we've shown that we hope to hang our hat on when we go out and do a universal campaign to do flu vaccines is to decrease the amount of time people are symptomatic with the condition, but we know very well with decades of experience with flu vaccine and innumerable other vaccines for viruses, we don't change the rate of infection. We hope to modify in at least a small portion of the people the duration of symptoms.
 
............just abject invalidity of the testing. Which we're using, we're screaming about tests, we're using testing as criteria to make very critical decisions. And the testing is completely unreliable. And as you said, even the creator of the test felt that, said that this test was never supposed to be used in such a way yet we're doing that. So just on that one point, why do you think, I mean, there's enough smart scientists out there who are embracing that. Why do you think they're embracing the current testing methodology?
 
Bruddah IZ said:
We know this for flu vaccine, right? Every single year, we have to create a new flu vaccine. And every single year, it never stops flu from occurring. We have never changed the penetration of flu for the vaccines that we put out. The only thing that we've shown that we hope to hang our hat on when we go out and do a universal campaign to do flu vaccines is to decrease the amount of time people are symptomatic with the condition, but we know very well with decades of experience with flu vaccine and innumerable other vaccines for viruses, we don't change the rate of infection. We hope to modify in at least a small portion of the people the duration of symptoms.
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" We hope to modify in at least a small portion of the people the duration of symptoms."


Who is "we"?
 
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