Vaccine

kickingandscreaming said:
I'll say the next hospitalization wave due to COVID will be significantly lower.

Current evidence suggests those most at risk of hospitalization are unvaccinated and also haven't had it yet but that is not particularly straightforward to determine. It also likely matters which variant someone caught and the length of time since the vaccination/booster.

It makes sense to focus on overall hospitalizations going forward as testing positive doesn't always indicate symptoms are present or the symptoms are no more than that of a cold. This scenario is/should be more common going forward if the vaccine truly protects from hospitalization as evidence suggests. Here's my unresearched take. After the current wave (which is still playing out a bit in the northern states), the virus and/or vaccine has been well spread across US population, and a large portion of the US was back to very near-normal activity. Assuming "breakthrough" infections are not rampant and not as severe (It's bad if R >1 AND the hospitalization rate is near to what it was), the states that have been back to normal won't see a nearly as significant rise in hospitalizations as they did previously. Those states with many restrictions may see a bigger percentage rise compared to the states without restrictions as they go back to normal or a slower, longer low rise if they continue restrictions (flatten the curve scenario). Now if breakthrough infections are common enough to create an R > 1 and infections are as severe there's no end in sight. Fortunately, there is no evidence of this.

Reasons to be optimistic things will improve
- Our immune system has a long history of surviving viruses about 99% of those who get COVID survive (98.2% of those who test positive)
- The vaccine offers protection from variants.
- Having gone through our population, many of those at the highest risk have already been exposed.
- Many states have been back to normal so their "R" isn't artificially low due to behavior modifications.
- Treatments are improving

There's still time to start exercising more and losing some weight. In some cases, this can lower your risk more than the vaccine. Also, lower weight and better aerobic health "works" regardless of the variant.
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I got it and I am in the best shape of my life. My wife loves me, my ds called me yesterday to just say hi and not ask for $$$ and my dd is turning the corner from being 17. The logical reasoning in my brain is that I have nothing to worry about and neither does my family, who got it already too. We have strong Cherokee bloodline ((where the Braves got their name)) mixed with super strong William Wallace Scottish Highlander Bloodline. We are a powerful magnet of love K&S. I can;t wait to share more good news about my family. The tide is turning. Fucking Golden Gate has his head up his ass. I wish I could share all the gossip in my family but it's best I keep it on the down low bro. Goat is going places is all I can say.....lol!!! TGIFS!!!!
 
espola said:
Interesting conclusion. I was looking a data for all of USA. My comment referred to the assumed seasonal effect of the infection.
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Yes, exactly. “Seasonal effect” is an effect on the “R” value in the same way NPI’s are supposed to effect R. Neither is a guarantee that R will be < 1. Quite some time ago @dad4 explained it to you.
 
espola said:
What seasonal effect factor does one assign to a data set that is displaying no seasonal behavior?
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I am not an epidemiologist but most of this stuff is out there. I welcome anyone more qualified to correct any misconceptions below.

Any virus that is aerosolized will be seasonal as its "R0" will vary throughout the year based on changing humidity and temperature as well as normal behavioral changes associated with the seasons that will put people inside unventilated areas more often. Also, the humidity/temperature in the unventilated (and ventilated for that matter) areas will also have an effect on R and that tends to change during the year. See the link below. The first sentence (shown below the link) is a statement of seasonality.

www.uhhospitals.org

The Role of Dry Winter Air in Spreading COVID-19

Low relative humidity can aid in the transmission of COVID-19 in three primary ways. Learn what you should do to create a safer environment at home.
www.uhhospitals.org www.uhhospitals.org

"As Americans head indoors for the winter, they find themselves at increased risk of contracting and spreading COVID-19 due to lower levels of humidity in the air."

As far as the factor to apply, ask @dad4. He may have an idea. It will vary depending on the virus and it's especially difficult when a virus is first introduced - hence the reference to the "novel" corona virus. The best case is that the COVID variants aren't produced as efficiently as the flu and the combination of getting it and getting vaccinated eventually pushes it to R < 1 regardless of the "season" and variant. I believe the next best scenario is what @Desert Hound describes - a "flu-like" seasonality where the R0 > 1 for part of the year. The worst case is well all get it and die - although, at close to a 99% survival rate, that may take a while.
 
...wait, what did he say?

"Vaccine hesitancy is never based on facts and data." ~Albert Boula, Pfizer CEO

... exactly, because the hesitant are uneducated rubes...wait! uuuh, SQUIRREL!

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kickingandscreaming said:
I am not an epidemiologist but most of this stuff is out there. I welcome anyone more qualified to correct any misconceptions below.

Any virus that is aerosolized will be seasonal as its "R0" will vary throughout the year based on changing humidity and temperature as well as normal behavioral changes associated with the seasons that will put people inside unventilated areas more often. Also, the humidity/temperature in the unventilated (and ventilated for that matter) areas will also have an effect on R and that tends to change during the year. See the link below. The first sentence (shown below the link) is a statement of seasonality.

www.uhhospitals.org

The Role of Dry Winter Air in Spreading COVID-19

Low relative humidity can aid in the transmission of COVID-19 in three primary ways. Learn what you should do to create a safer environment at home.
www.uhhospitals.org www.uhhospitals.org

"As Americans head indoors for the winter, they find themselves at increased risk of contracting and spreading COVID-19 due to lower levels of humidity in the air."

As far as the factor to apply, ask @dad4. He may have an idea. It will vary depending on the virus and it's especially difficult when a virus is first introduced - hence the reference to the "novel" corona virus. The best case is that the COVID variants aren't produced as efficiently as the flu and the combination of getting it and getting vaccinated eventually pushes it to R < 1 regardless of the "season" and variant. I believe the next best scenario is what @Desert Hound describes - a "flu-like" seasonality where the R0 > 1 for part of the year. The worst case is well all get it and die - although, at close to a 99% survival rate, that may take a while.
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Lots of unknowns and assumptions in there. I am also not an epidemiologist, so I limited my analysis to what I do know -- analyzing large data sets looking for frequency components. If I had told my boss "Ignore the data, we know how it is supposed to work" I would have been transferred to the marketing department.
 
espola said:
Lots of unknowns and assumptions in there. I am also not an epidemiologist, so I limited my analysis to what I do know -- analyzing large data sets looking for frequency components. If I had told my boss "Ignore the data, we know how it is supposed to work" I would have been transferred to the marketing department.
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Yes, with all viruses there are unknowns and assumptions that must be made to come to any conclusions. It's why the experts' predictions are often incorrect.
 
The Use of Knowledge in Society, by Friedrich Hayek, is arguably one of the most important economic papers to have ever been written. Unlike highly theoretical, inconsequential, and esoteric modern academic research that is read by nobody, the 11 pages of this paper continue to be read widely 70 years after its publication, and have had a lasting impact on the lives and businesses of many people worldwide, perhaps none as significant as its role in the founding of one of the most important websites on the Internet, and the largest single body of knowledge assembled in human history. Jimmy Wales, Wikipedia’s founder, has stated that the idea for establishing Wikipedia came to him after he read this paper by Hayek and his explanation of knowledge.

Hayek explained that contrary to popular and elementary treatments of the topic, the economic problem is not merely the problem of allocating resources and products, but more accurately, the problem of allocating them using knowledge that is not given in its totality to any single individual or entity. Economic knowledge of the conditions of production, the relative availability and abundance of the factors of production, and the preferences of individuals, is not objective knowledge that can be fully known to a single entity. Rather, the knowledge of economic conditions is by its very nature distributed and situated with the people concerned by their individual decisions. Every human’s mind is consumed in learning and understanding the economic information relevant to them. Highly intelligent and hardworking individuals will spend decades learning the economic realities of their industries in order to reach positions of authority over the production processes of one single good. It is inconceivable that all these individual decisions being carried out by everyone could be substituted by aggregating all that information into one individual’s mind to perform the calculations for everyone. Nor is there a need for this insane quest to centralize all knowledge into one decision maker’s hands.--Saifedeen.
 
kickingandscreaming said:
Yes, with all viruses there are unknowns and assumptions that must be made to come to any conclusions. It's why the experts' predictions are often incorrect.
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The State is almost universally considered an institution of social service. Some theorists venerate the State as the apotheosis of society; others regard it as an amiable, though often inefficient, organization for achieving social ends; but almost all regard it as a necessary means for achieving the goals of mankind, a means to be ranged against the “private sector” and often winning in this competition of resources. With the rise of democracy, the identification of the State with society has been redoubled, until it is common to hear sentiments expressed which violate virtually every tenet of reason and common sense such as, “we are the government.” The useful collective term “we” has enabled an ideological camouflage to be thrown over the reality of political life. If “we are the government,” then anything a government does to an individual is not only just and un-tyrannical but also “voluntary” on the part of the individual concerned. If the government has incurred a huge public debt which must be paid by taxing one group for the benefit of another, this reality of burden is obscured by saying that “we owe it to ourselves”; if the government conscripts a man, or throws him into jail for dissident opinion, then he is “doing it to himself” and, therefore, nothing untoward has occurred. Under this reasoning, any Jews murdered by the Nazi government were not murdered; instead, they must have “committed suicide,” since they were the government (which was democratically chosen), and, therefore, anything the government did to them was voluntary on their part. One would not think it necessary to belabor this point, and yet the overwhelming bulk of the people hold this fallacy to a greater or lesser degree.

We must, therefore, emphasize that “we” are not the government; the government is not “us.” The government does not in any accurate sense “represent” the majority of the people. But, even if it did, even if 70 percent of the people decided to murder the remaining 30 percent, this would still be murder and would not be voluntary suicide on the part of the slaughtered minority. No organicist metaphor, no irrelevant bromide that “we are all part of one another,” must be permitted to obscure this basic fact.

If, then, the State is not “us,” if it is not “the human family” getting together to decide mutual problems, if it is not a lodge meeting or country club, what is it? Briefly, the State is that organization in society which attempts to maintain a monopoly of the use of force and violence in a given territorial area; in particular, it is the only organization in society that obtains its revenue not by voluntary contribution or payment for services rendered but by coercion. While other individuals or institutions obtain their income by production of goods and services and by the peaceful and voluntary sale of these goods and services to others, the State obtains its revenue by the use of compulsion; that is, by the use and the threat of the jailhouse and the bayonet. Having used force and violence to obtain its revenue, the State generally goes on to regulate and dictate the other actions of its individual subjects. One would think that simple observation of all States through history and over the globe would be proof enough of this assertion; but the miasma of myth has lain so long over State activity that elaboration is necessary.-- Rothbard
 
espola said:
What seasonal effect factor does one assign to a data set that is displaying no seasonal behavior?
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Huh?

So far, covid has shown a pretty strong seasonal correlation. ( Have you completely forgotten last winter? ). There are other factors, too. But no one important seems to doubt that there is a weather effect.

I have not bothered trying to predict whether there will be a winter surge. My county has a high enough vax rate that we can probably hospitalize the remaining high risk anti-vaxxers, as needed.
 
dad4 said:
Huh?

So far, covid has shown a pretty strong seasonal correlation. ( Have you completely forgotten last winter? ). There are other factors, too. But no one important seems to doubt that there is a weather effect.

I have not bothered trying to predict whether there will be a winter surge. My county has a high enough vax rate that we can probably hospitalize the remaining high risk anti-vaxxers, as needed.
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There were also peaks in the summer of 2020 and the summer of 2021.
 
The 'Delta Plus' variant —AY.4.2— has been detected in New York and California, but experts say not to panic..........yet

The experts say this is the daughter of the original Delta. The brother I hear is gnarly and out of control. No more waves you guys. They mutated to become family members now. Cousin Henry is evil so watch out!~!!

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dad4 said:
Huh?

So far, covid has shown a pretty strong seasonal correlation. ( Have you completely forgotten last winter? ). There are other factors, too. But no one important seems to doubt that there is a weather effect.

I have not bothered trying to predict whether there will be a winter surge. My county has a high enough vax rate that we can probably hospitalize the remaining high risk anti-vaxxers, as needed.
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It's exactly these types of statements that drive public health professionals crazy (at least the ones that stay out of politics).

The hospitization and deaths in vaccinated patients is on an upward trend througout the country. It's interesting how reluctant the CDC has been in collecting data on infections in vaccinated people and disseminating it the public. They've reluctantly pushed out data on deaths and hospitalization in places like MA, NV, WV. But don't you worry, vaccinating children 5-12 at the tail end of a pandemic is going to solve the problem. Adults seem to be very scared of young kids these days. Little germ factories.

What does a high risk anti-vaxxer look like in Santa Clara county?
 
dad4 said:
Huh?

So far, covid has shown a pretty strong seasonal correlation. ( Have you completely forgotten last winter? ). There are other factors, too. But no one important seems to doubt that there is a weather effect.

I have not bothered trying to predict whether there will be a winter surge. My county has a high enough vax rate that we can probably hospitalize the remaining high risk anti-vaxxers, as needed.
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The weather effect? Please explain this.
 
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