Don't know who the so-called experts are but this from Yahoo is interesting
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Arizona's pandemic outlook worries experts as mask and vaccine mandate battles rage
Arizona has caught up to New York when it comes to reported deaths per capita - even though the latter was ravaged by the coronavirus early in the pandemic before treatments or vaccines were developed. Some health experts worry Arizona could be headed for a deepening crisis as winter approaches...news.yahoo.com
"Now, Ducey - who is vaccinated and has urged others to get vaccinated but argues it should be a - is engaged in a battle against the federal government on several fronts in an effort to prevent mask mandates in schools and vaccine mandates in workplaces in his state."
How does "personal choice" turn into or is portrayed to be a battle vs the Feds? Without getting into party affiliation or opinions about that governor.
Pretty worthless partisan piece:
1. NY wasn't bad because it got hit early. NY was bad because Cuomo sent infected people back into nursing homes.
2. AZ isn't experiencing a huge major third wave. It's numbers are actually (slowly) falling like the rest of the country

Arizona COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Arizona COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.

3. They are just speculating on what will happen without an facts and again relying on "masks". It's possible but they don't know. But it's a political hit by the media, just like they do with Florida sometime.
4. The chief difference in deaths will be NY is 65% fully vaxxed. AZ is only 50%...but both AZ and NY have a lot of natural immunity (how much no one is really sure...but that will make the difference one way or another).
5. The other issue is the indigenous population in AZ for which, particularly on the reservations, the death rate has been shockingly high.