Vaccine

[Grace T.]

Why would the existence of a booster shot make lockdowns more likely?

I don’t think you’ll see many more business closures. High vax areas aren’t getting large enough spikes to provoke lockdown discussions. Low vax areas don’t have political support for business closures.

Short of a truly vaccine resistant variant, i would bet businesses stay open.

There’s a lot to unpack here. Theoretically if you go with Gottlieb approach you need low level npis to protect the vulnerable (and unvaxxed kids) until they can get their boosters. Again that’s just to be logically consistent but policy is messy and not always logical.

your position is belied by the fact that Hawaii, despite a high vaccination rate and masks, has hit record case numbers (4x prior peaks) and has imposed already restrictions on bars restaurants and has other measures (such as beach closures on the table)

but I think, at least in the us (and my answer was larger than just the us or SoCal) the answer to your assumption turns on whether newsom is recalled. If he is, I think the blue states might actually be cowed enough to not do business closures during any hypothetical winter waves. If he isn’t and the wave gets bad enough, I think you could see things like school closures, shutting down indoor dining and bars, shutting down gyms and theaters, shutting down large events or putting capacity restrictions again like on Disneyland. Again remember the rule in California: you cannot shut schools if the kids during the shuttered school day can go to Disneyland.

 

[crush]

I don’t think you’ll see many more business closures.

Short of a truly vaccine resistant variant, i would bet businesses stay open.

Hey wise dad, have you ever owned a biz or at least attempted to start one?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Why? Are antibodies now responsible for long term immunity?

Because you only deal in the now.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

I clicked on the Israeli serology study linked earlier today. Here's my 2 cents.

It's a nice set of data. Given their vaxx data is weighted towards the beginning and end points, I would not be surprised if during review they were asked to comment on the possibility that their regression line is actually composed of two kinetic components (ie a fast initial drop followed by a slope similar to convalescent plasma) and is not a simple linear relationship. That might make a lot of sense. To look at it I superimposed their vaxx and convalescent scatter plots as on graph below, adjusting the x-axis since the vaxx data ends at 6 months while the convalescnent data set goes out further.

The main thing I'd point out is in regards to the y-axis, which is on a log scale. Each dot is the anti-S antibody titer of an individual as determined from a blood sample. Blue for vaxx, red for infection. For both groups, like I was saying the other day, there is huge (~1000X) variability from one person to another in antibody titer. Who, among these people, would be most prone for possibly symptomatic re-infection or (as it is being termed for vaxxed) breakthrough infection? Well, probably people with lower titers towards the bottom of the y-axis. Note you find both red and blue dot people down there.

The x-axis is then tracking out how circulating titer decays over time, which is their main focus. There's a clear ~10X initial higher titer with vaxx, which drop to superimposable levels with CoV-2 infection titers within 6 months. To know if they'd keep dropping according to the slope of their regression line they'd need to run it out further.

So if somebody wants to look at this data and interpret it to mean that vaxx or CoV-2 infection is somehow a "better" way to prime an immune response I don't know what aspect of the data that would be. It just seems a silly argument and unwarranted dichotomy, given that it's the same cellular processes that are being stimulated in both cases by the same protein. Nor is the study trying to make a "this is better than that" distinction. They are interested in the titer kinetics with respect to possible timing of boosters for immunocomp and vulnerable people.

View attachment 11514

It just seems an even sillier argument and unwarranted dichotomy, given that the same cellular processes that are being stimulated in both cases by the same protein BUT one enters the blood stream directly while natural infection does not.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Why would the existence of a booster shot make lockdowns more likely?

I don’t think you’ll see many more business closures. High vax areas aren’t getting large enough spikes to provoke lockdown discussions. Low vax areas don’t have political support for business closures.

Short of a truly vaccine resistant variant, i would bet businesses stay open.

That's good. It's about time we get away from denying people their rights to due process as government has been brutally abrogating contracts as an illegal third party to those contracts.

 

[Desert Hound]

"Children are being sentenced to another round of unnecessary mask mandates and probably more school closures based on evidence-free warnings from Anthony Fauci and others that the Delta variant will be more deadly to them than the original virus. While the variant is more infectious, the evidence does not show it to be any more lethal. In fact, the current mortality rate among American children with Covid is lower than it was last year—and last year many more children died of the flu than of Covid. One of the most thorough studies, in England, shows that the survival rate for those under 18 with Covid is 99.995 percent. But instead of emphasizing these reassuring statistics, public-health officials like Jerome Adams, the former surgeon general, keep looking for new ways to scare parents and children.

“I’m an anesthesiologist,” he tweeted last weekend. “And a dad. And I can assure you in both capacities that your child will be far more comfortable if they’re in a face mask, than on a ventilator. If you’re making a choice on behalf of a child, please choose based on their comfort, vs yours.” He offered no new evidence that children are at heightened risk from the virus, much less any evidence that a mask would make any difference, but he did make sure to include a gruesome photograph of a child on a ventilator."

--

It is crap like that from "experts" that push us away from their pronouncements. The data shows kids have no risk. And yet they pretend otherwise and make believe the virus is coming for the kids.

--

" Even Robert Redfield, who made unsubstantiated claims for mask efficacy last year while he was directing the CDC, now concedes that there is a “paucity of data” to support mask mandates. When asked if the CDC is wrong to be recommending masks for schoolchildren, he replied, “I’m saying that I haven’t been able to review data that supports that recommendation.”

His successors at the agency, unfortunately, seem less interested in reviewing data than in hiding it. As David Zweig reported in New York, when researchers from the CDC compared Covid-mitigation techniques at 169 elementary schools in Georgia, they found no statistically significant reduction of infections in schools that required masks for students, enforced social distancing, or installed barriers between desks. Those were important findings because it was the first such large study, but the CDC did not even mention them in the summary of research that it published. Instead, the agency went on recommending masks for all students.

The European Union’s equivalent of the CDC, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, has sensibly recommended against masking students under age 12 because of the physical, psychological, and social harms to children, but American officials have made no effort to weigh the costs and benefits. The National Institutes of Health hasn’t even bothered to study the negative impacts of its mask policies on children. Dozens of other researchers, though, have demonstrated an array of problems called “Mask-Induced Exhaustion Syndrome.” The problems include decrease in blood oxygen saturation; increase in blood carbon dioxide; increase in heart and respiratory rates; difficulty breathing; dizziness; headache; drowsiness; and decreased ability to concentrate and think.

Masking children at minimal risk from the virus was justified last year on the grounds that it might prevent infections of vulnerable adults who had no defense against the virus. But now that vaccines are readily available, why harm children for the sake of adults who have deliberately chosen not to protect themselves? Since when do children bear responsibility for adults’ decisions?

The mask mandates for children can’t be justified on ethical or scientific grounds, but they persist because they serve the interests of a certain class of adults. The purpose of this hygiene theater was described with blunt accuracy by Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor and one of the few politicians who has actually been following the science during the pandemic. “Politicians,” he explained, “want to force you to cover your face as a way for them to cover their own asses.”

Will Policymakers Let the Covid Crisis End? | City Journal

Reluctant to set the public free, policymakers and the public-health bureaucracy set unachievable and unnecessary goals.

www.city-journal.org

 

[dad4]

There’s a lot to unpack here. Theoretically if you go with Gottlieb approach you need low level npis to protect the vulnerable (and unvaxxed kids) until they can get their boosters. Again that’s just to be logically consistent but policy is messy and not always logical.

your position is belied by the fact that Hawaii, despite a high vaccination rate and masks, has hit record case numbers (4x prior peaks) and has imposed already restrictions on bars restaurants and has other measures (such as beach closures on the table)

but I think, at least in the us (and my answer was larger than just the us or SoCal) the answer to your assumption turns on whether newsom is recalled. If he is, I think the blue states might actually be cowed enough to not do business closures during any hypothetical winter waves. If he isn’t and the wave gets bad enough, I think you could see things like school closures, shutting down indoor dining and bars, shutting down gyms and theaters, shutting down large events or putting capacity restrictions again like on Disneyland. Again remember the rule in California: you cannot shut schools if the kids during the shuttered school day can go to Disneyland.

One more example of where your words don’t match the numbers.

You claim HI has a “high vaccination rate.”. Their vaccination rate is 55%, very close to the national average of 52%. They rank 20 out of 52. That counts a “middling”, not high.

You claim “record case numbers.”. They have 49 cases per 100K. The nation has 45 cases per 100K. Puts them at 17th out of 52. Again, that counts as “middling”. If it is a record, that is only a sign that their old numbers were low- which they were.

If you’re not going to be honest with your representation of the data, there is no point in talking.

Hawaii is an outlier. They have average vaccinations but below average past infections. This means they have below average overall immunity. So cases rise and they are blaming outsiders.

Typical, but it’s not at all indicative of what will happen in other states. No one else has Hawaii’s combination of low past cases and a so-so vaccination rate. Closest is Oregon, who have 4% more vaccinations and almost double the past infections.

 

[EvilGoalie 21]

the same protein BUT one enters the blood stream directly while natural infection does not

The vaccines contain genetic instructions to make the spike protein, not the spike protein itself. They are not attenuated viral vaccines. The genetic instructions are surrounded by either an adenovirus or lipidic nanoparticle coating that fuses with cellular membranes in an analogous fashion to CoV-2 cell entry. In both cases, the spike protein is expressed, proteolyzed, engulfed and displayed on thee surface of antigen presenting cells within the circulatory system, triggering the active immune response. If you are trying to make a point about innate immunity you need to spell it out.

 

[Grace T.]

One more example of where your words don’t match the numbers.

You claim HI has a “high vaccination rate.”. Their vaccination rate is 55%, very close to the national average of 52%. They rank 20 out of 52. That counts a “middling”, not high.

You claim “record case numbers.”. They have 49 cases per 100K. The nation has 45 cases per 100K. Puts them at 17th out of 52. Again, that counts as “middling”. If it is a record, that is only a sign that their old numbers were low- which they were.

If you’re not going to be honest with your representation of the data, there is no point in talking.

Hawaii is an outlier. They have average vaccinations but below average past infections. This means they have below average overall immunity. So cases rise and they are blaming outsiders.

Typical, but it’s not at all indicative of what will happen in other states. No one else has Hawaii’s combination of low past cases and a so-so vaccination rate. Closest is Oregon, who have 4% more vaccinations and almost double the past infections.

Err Hawaii is over 60% unless they are putting out false press

Hawaii hits 60% mark for vaccinations

<p>Sixty percent of Hawaii residents are now fully vaccinated against COVID-19 — three weeks after the state was expected to hit that benchmark.</p>

www.hawaiitribune-herald.com

Yes, they are having a record number of cases for them. It's fair to say relative to other states it's not a record. Your point is a fair one. But they, despite the restrictions, have hit records for them. Masks seem to be working there!

Hawaii COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Hawaii COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

I agree Hawaii is an outlier. That's bad news for Australia/New Zealand...they are looking at fortressing for at least another year if they want to avoid the same effect as Hawaii. I agree also it's not at all indicative of what will happen in other states, with the big variable being we don't know how the delta will evolve. But I do think the politics are indictive of what will happen, particularly if Newsom wins the recall.

 

[dad4]

Hey wise dad, have you ever owned a biz or at least attempted to start one?

Yes. I’ve also had to try to collect rent during covid.

It’s part of why I support masks and vaccine passports. Annoying, but better than shurdowns.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

One more example of where your words don’t match the numbers.

You claim HI has a “high vaccination rate.”. Their vaccination rate is 55%, very close to the national average of 52%. They rank 20 out of 52. That counts a “middling”, not high.

You claim “record case numbers.”. They have 49 cases per 100K. The nation has 45 cases per 100K. Puts them at 17th out of 52. Again, that counts as “middling”. If it is a record, that is only a sign that their old numbers were low- which they were.

If you’re not going to be honest with your representation of the data, there is no point in talking.

Hawaii is an outlier. They have average vaccinations but below average past infections. This means they have below average overall immunity. So cases rise and they are blaming outsiders.

Typical, but it’s not at all indicative of what will happen in other states. No one else has Hawaii’s combination of low past cases and a so-so vaccination rate. Closest is Oregon, who have 4% more vaccinations and almost double the past infections.

Data source?

 

[crush]

It just seems an even sillier argument and unwarranted dichotomy, given that the same cellular processes that are being stimulated in both cases by the same protein BUT one enters the blood stream directly while natural infection does not.

Adding foreign shit to your blood cells is weird science where I come from Bruddah.

 

[crush]

Yes. I’ve also had to try to collect rent during covid.

It’s part of why I support masks and vaccine passports. Annoying, but better than shurdowns.

Teacher going around trying to collect rent during Covid is interesting. I do have a pal who is big time Principle and owns three homes. He got in after people lost their homes in 2007-2008. He waited and got in at the right time. Today, one of them is not paying and now he's going backwards. He freaks out when he loses money. Good luck dad and please be nice to to your renters and students.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

The vaccines contain genetic instructions to make the spike protein, not the spike protein itself. They are not attenuated viral vaccines. The genetic instructions are surrounded by either an adenovirus or lipidic nanoparticle coating that fuses with cellular membranes in an analogous fashion to CoV-2 cell entry. In both cases, the spike protein is expressed, proteolyzed, engulfed and displayed on thee surface of antigen presenting cells within the circulatory system, triggering the active immune response. If you are trying to make a point about innate immunity you need to spell it out.

No need to spell it out. You nor I have said anything new regarding respiratory diseases. SARS-1 nor MERS required vax mandates or NPI's.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Adding foreign shit to your blood cells is weird science where I come from Bruddah.

Pathogenic Priming?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Err Hawaii is over 60% unless they are putting out false press

Hawaii hits 60% mark for vaccinations

<p>Sixty percent of Hawaii residents are now fully vaccinated against COVID-19 — three weeks after the state was expected to hit that benchmark.</p>

www.hawaiitribune-herald.com

Yes, they are having a record number of cases for them. It's fair to say relative to other states it's not a record. Your point is a fair one. But they, despite the restrictions, have hit records for them. Masks seem to be working there!

Hawaii COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Hawaii COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

I agree Hawaii is an outlier. That's bad news for Australia/New Zealand...they are looking at fortressing for at least another year if they want to avoid the same effect as Hawaii. I agree also it's not at all indicative of what will happen in other states, with the big variable being we don't know how the delta will evolve. But I do think the politics are indictive of what will happen, particularly if Newsom wins the recall.

Australian Mikayla Novak writes:

The great sense of lament expressed in the letter is, sadly, not inaccurate at all. One can easily catalogue the list of bizarre and illiberal exhortations to obey “rules” (the term set in quotation marks, given the lack of parliamentary assent for them) that stifle civil liberties, economic freedoms, social activities, and forms of political expression. Examples not only include the political castigation of viewing sunsets outdoors, but advising crowds to scurry away from footballs kicked during a match, advising business owners to shoo customers out of their stores if caught “browsing,” encouraging people to use official websites and hotlines to report noncompliant members of the public, etc. There are now regular spectacles of police barricading major roads into capital cities to prevent rumoured protests (we may refer to this tactic as the Police Anti-Anti-Lockdown Protest). All laughable, if not so seriously damaging to life, property, liberty, and happiness. In my jurisdiction (Australian Capital Territory) the local government has simultaneously imposed outdoor mask mandates, QR check-in codes at all retail premises, physical distancing provisions, home “lockdown” (essentially, a bio-political disciplinary measure that would make Foucault gasp), one hour of outdoor exercise daily, discouragement of travel more than five kilometres from one’s home, inability to travel interjurisdictionally, and so on. My university recently made an urgent call-out for staff-volunteers to help feed students locked up in their college residences.

As individual liberties and potentials for human association diminish substantially under the weight of measures in response to a handful of Covid “cases,” Australia’s political executives are squabbling over the meaning of over-simplistic epidemiological models. In this respect, would a hypothetical 70-80 per cent population-wide vaccination rate (for persons aged 16 years and over) really mean the end of lockdowns, constant surveillance, etc. etc.? Politicians in some jurisdictions say “yes,” others “no,” most “maybe, who knows?” This debate is being prosecuted against the background of a 24-25 per cent population-wide vaccination rate as of today (the potential implications of this debate for continuation of restrictive measures into the forseeable future are clear). All up, the situation is dire and entirely politically-induced. (One bright spot: Australia’s libertarian political party – the Liberal Democrats – is enjoying a surge in membership and public interest on account of their no-lockdown policies.)

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Research Paper

A country level analysis measuring the impact of government actions, country preparedness and socioeconomic factors on COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes

Rabail Chaudhrya , George Dranitsarisb , Talha Mubashirc , Justyna Bartoszkoa , Sheila Riazia, * a Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, University of Toronto, University Health Network, 323-200 Elizabeth Street, Toronto, ON M5G 2C4, Canada b Department of Hematology, School of Medicine, University of Ioannina, Ioannina 451 10 Greece c Department of Anesthesiology, McGovern Medical School, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (UT Health), 7000 Fannin St, Houston, TX 77030, United States

When COVID-19 mortality was assessed, variables significantly associated with an increased death rate per million were population prevalence of obesity and per capita GDP (Table 4). In contrast, variables that was negatively associated with increased COVID-19 mortality were reduced income dispersion within the nation, smoking prevalence, and the number of nurses per million population (Table 4). Indeed, more nurses within a given health care system was associated with reduced mortality (Fig. 1). Mortality rates were also higher in those counties with an older population upon univariate analysis, but age as a factor was not retained in multivariable analysis (Fig. 2). Lastly, government actions such as border closures, full lockdowns, and a high rate of COVID-19 testing were not associated with statistically significant reductions in the number of critical cases or overall mortality.

 

[dad4]

Err Hawaii is over 60% unless they are putting out false press

Hawaii hits 60% mark for vaccinations

<p>Sixty percent of Hawaii residents are now fully vaccinated against COVID-19 — three weeks after the state was expected to hit that benchmark.</p>

www.hawaiitribune-herald.com

Yes, they are having a record number of cases for them. It's fair to say relative to other states it's not a record. Your point is a fair one. But they, despite the restrictions, have hit records for them. Masks seem to be working there!

Hawaii COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Hawaii COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

I agree Hawaii is an outlier. That's bad news for Australia/New Zealand...they are looking at fortressing for at least another year if they want to avoid the same effect as Hawaii. I agree also it's not at all indicative of what will happen in other states, with the big variable being we don't know how the delta will evolve. But I do think the politics are indictive of what will happen, particularly if Newsom wins the recall.

55% of total pop. 60% of adults. Not misreporting numbers, just choosing the more favorable one to announce,

Still, nowhere near the 85% of adults you see in highly vaccinated areas.

OZ/NZ does have a problem if they can’t get vax rates up. Same as any high NPI, low vax jurisdiction.

High vax areas like SF or VT are quite different. I doubt any high vax area will need to go beyond masks and vaccine passports.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

55% of total pop. 60% of adults. Not misreporting numbers, just choosing the more favorable one to announce,

Still, nowhere near the 85% of adults you see in highly vaccinated areas.

OZ/NZ does have a problem if they can’t get vax rates up. Same as any high NPI, low vax jurisdiction.

High vax areas like SF or VT are quite different. I doubt any high vax area will need to go beyond masks and vaccine passports.

 

[Grace T.]

55% of total pop. 60% of adults. Not misreporting numbers, just choosing the more favorable one to announce,

Still, nowhere near the 85% of adults you see in highly vaccinated areas.

OZ/NZ does have a problem if they can’t get vax rates up. Same as any high NPI, low vax jurisdiction.

High vax areas like SF or VT are quite different. I doubt any high vax area will need to go beyond masks and vaccine passports.

Hey we agree on stuff for a change!

My 2 caveats...that was 60% back in July. And there is a difference between "need" and actually doing it. LA is already at masks at crowded events and vaccine passports....Hawaii at reduced capacity for indoor dining and nearing closing the beaches...when the numbers go up the authorities feel to do something (even if it's ineffective like cloth masks)....and these areas are already there despite it being summer so there's not much more room for them to do stuff before they begin to get heavy handed. The red areas have more risk tolerance against doing stuff than the blue areas, so even if they don't "need" to, the blue areas might still feel compelled to actual do something, particularly if Newsom wins the recall. The recall will essentially serve as a referendum on the tolerance of the public for restrictions in blue areas. The other variable we don't know is how bad does it get despite vaccination (we only have the UK, Iceland and Israel to really guide us here)