Vaccine

[Bruddah IZ]

Research Paper

A country level analysis measuring the impact of government actions, country preparedness and socioeconomic factors on COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes

Rabail Chaudhrya , George Dranitsarisb , Talha Mubashirc , Justyna Bartoszkoa , Sheila Riazia, * a Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, University of Toronto, University Health Network, 323-200 Elizabeth Street, Toronto, ON M5G 2C4, Canada b Department of Hematology, School of Medicine, University of Ioannina, Ioannina 451 10 Greece c Department of Anesthesiology, McGovern Medical School, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (UT Health), 7000 Fannin St, Houston, TX 77030, United States

When COVID-19 mortality was assessed, variables significantly associated with an increased death rate per million were population prevalence of obesity and per capita GDP (Table 4). In contrast, variables that was negatively associated with increased COVID-19 mortality were reduced income dispersion within the nation, smoking prevalence, and the number of nurses per million population (Table 4). Indeed, more nurses within a given health care system was associated with reduced mortality (Fig. 1). Mortality rates were also higher in those counties with an older population upon univariate analysis, but age as a factor was not retained in multivariable analysis (Fig. 2). Lastly, government actions such as border closures, full lockdowns, and a high rate of COVID-19 testing were not associated with statistically significant reductions in the number of critical cases or overall mortality.

 

[dad4]

Err Hawaii is over 60% unless they are putting out false press

Hawaii hits 60% mark for vaccinations - Hawaii Tribune-Herald

Hawaii hits 60% mark for vaccinations - Hawaii News | Hawaii Tribune-Herald

www.hawaiitribune-herald.com

Yes, they are having a record number of cases for them. It's fair to say relative to other states it's not a record. Your point is a fair one. But they, despite the restrictions, have hit records for them. Masks seem to be working there!

Hawaii COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Hawaii COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

I agree Hawaii is an outlier. That's bad news for Australia/New Zealand...they are looking at fortressing for at least another year if they want to avoid the same effect as Hawaii. I agree also it's not at all indicative of what will happen in other states, with the big variable being we don't know how the delta will evolve. But I do think the politics are indictive of what will happen, particularly if Newsom wins the recall.

55% of total pop. 60% of adults. Not misreporting numbers, just choosing the more favorable one to announce,

Still, nowhere near the 85% of adults you see in highly vaccinated areas.

OZ/NZ does have a problem if they can’t get vax rates up. Same as any high NPI, low vax jurisdiction.

High vax areas like SF or VT are quite different. I doubt any high vax area will need to go beyond masks and vaccine passports.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

55% of total pop. 60% of adults. Not misreporting numbers, just choosing the more favorable one to announce,

Still, nowhere near the 85% of adults you see in highly vaccinated areas.

OZ/NZ does have a problem if they can’t get vax rates up. Same as any high NPI, low vax jurisdiction.

High vax areas like SF or VT are quite different. I doubt any high vax area will need to go beyond masks and vaccine passports.

 

[Grace T.]

55% of total pop. 60% of adults. Not misreporting numbers, just choosing the more favorable one to announce,

Still, nowhere near the 85% of adults you see in highly vaccinated areas.

OZ/NZ does have a problem if they can’t get vax rates up. Same as any high NPI, low vax jurisdiction.

High vax areas like SF or VT are quite different. I doubt any high vax area will need to go beyond masks and vaccine passports.

Hey we agree on stuff for a change!

My 2 caveats...that was 60% back in July. And there is a difference between "need" and actually doing it. LA is already at masks at crowded events and vaccine passports....Hawaii at reduced capacity for indoor dining and nearing closing the beaches...when the numbers go up the authorities feel to do something (even if it's ineffective like cloth masks)....and these areas are already there despite it being summer so there's not much more room for them to do stuff before they begin to get heavy handed. The red areas have more risk tolerance against doing stuff than the blue areas, so even if they don't "need" to, the blue areas might still feel compelled to actual do something, particularly if Newsom wins the recall. The recall will essentially serve as a referendum on the tolerance of the public for restrictions in blue areas. The other variable we don't know is how bad does it get despite vaccination (we only have the UK, Iceland and Israel to really guide us here)

 

[Roadrunner]

It just seems an even sillier argument and unwarranted dichotomy, given that the same cellular processes that are being stimulated in both cases by the same protein BUT one enters the blood stream directly while natural infection does not.

A decline in circulating anti-spike antibodies over time is to be expected, unless the individuals are getting exposed repeatedly to SARS-CoV2 or boosters.

Someone with good immunity should be able to rapidly fill an order for new little green anti-spike army men because you've got the mold in stock (innate immunity), rather than needing to put in a special order and potentially deal with supply line slowdowns, all while trying to prevent the virus from gaining a strong foothold. The data here show the numbers of circulating anti-spike army men ready to do battle in different people. Lots of variability, no surprise. The immune cells remember how to make more quickly if needed, using the molds they have in stock. A question is how quickly can an individual ramp up their production relative to an invading virus. .. and whether the green anti-spike army men should be shaped a bit differently to best attack virus spike 2.0.

 

[dad4]

Hey we agree on stuff for a change!

My 2 caveats...that was 60% back in July. And there is a difference between "need" and actually doing it. LA is already at masks at crowded events and vaccine passports....Hawaii at reduced capacity for indoor dining and nearing closing the beaches...when the numbers go up the authorities feel to do something (even if it's ineffective like cloth masks)....and these areas are already there despite it being summer so there's not much more room for them to do stuff before they begin to get heavy handed. The red areas have more risk tolerance against doing stuff than the blue areas, so even if they don't "need" to, the blue areas might still feel compelled to actual do something, particularly if Newsom wins the recall. The recall will essentially serve as a referendum on the tolerance of the public for restrictions in blue areas. The other variable we don't know is how bad does it get despite vaccination (we only have the UK, Iceland and Israel to really guide us here)

LA's rules sound ok. Masks and vaccines have solid evidence behind them. Let me know when a high vax city (above 80% for over 12) goes beyond vaccine passports.

Hawaii sounds like they want to blame the tourists for community spread. Closing beaches does a good job of driving away tourists, but it won't solve their covid problem.

 

[Grace T.]

LA's rules sound ok. Masks and vaccines have solid evidence behind them. Let me know when a high vax city (above 80% for over 12) goes beyond vaccine passports.

Hawaii sounds like they want to blame the tourists for community spread. Closing beaches does a good job of driving away tourists, but it won't solve their covid problem.

The beach closures are actually a locals problem. Locals in Hawaii tend to have large gatherings at the beaches since houses tend to be small and there is a water culture.

Only certain masks have solid evidence behind them. Cloth masks from the U of Waterloo only reduce particles by 10%. Surgicals not much better. Security theatre. Vaccine passports the question is how many breakthroughs are we getting and how contagious on them (which as you know has robust debate around them). If the answer is many and not as much as the unvaxxed but still substantial, they are also security theater) Los Angeles is engaging in security theater because they are under pressure to do something and that's sort of all they can do right now (at least until the recall election).

 

[watfly]

Yes. I’ve also had to try to collect rent during covid.

I hope you had better luck then I did. I was able to recover a lot through the rental assistance program. However, I would have much rather had the option to evict.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

A decline in circulating anti-spike antibodies over time is to be expected, unless the individuals are getting exposed repeatedly to SARS-CoV2 or boosters.

Someone with good immunity should be able to rapidly fill an order for new little green anti-spike army men because you've got the mold in stock (innate immunity), rather than needing to put in a special order and potentially deal with supply line slowdowns, all while trying to prevent the virus from gaining a strong foothold. The data here show the numbers of circulating anti-spike army men ready to do battle in different people. Lots of variability, no surprise. The immune cells remember how to make more quickly if needed, using the molds they have in stock. A question is how quickly can an individual ramp up their production relative to an invading virus. .. and whether the green anti-spike army men should be shaped a bit differently to best attack virus spike 2.0.

Plenty of data and history to support green army men.

 

[dad4]

The beach closures are actually a locals problem. Locals in Hawaii tend to have large gatherings at the beaches since houses tend to be small and there is a water culture.

Only certain masks have solid evidence behind them. Cloth masks from the U of Waterloo only reduce particles by 10%. Surgicals not much better. Security theatre. Vaccine passports the question is how many breakthroughs are we getting and how contagious on them (which as you know has robust debate around them). If the answer is many and not as much as the unvaxxed but still substantial, they are also security theater) Los Angeles is engaging in security theater because they are under pressure to do something and that's sort of all they can do right now (at least until the recall election).

Particle reduction? You’re still thinking of masks as filters. Ask whether the mask redirects air flow away from the receiving person. It’s a better question.

Then, if you are indoors, ask what the ventillation system does to trap or expel the virus before it builds up on the room.

I agree that, if you are in a poorly ventilated room with lots of people, you need an N95. But you also need to ask yourself why you are in that room at all.

 

[Grace T.]

Particle reduction? You’re still thinking of masks as filters. Ask whether the mask redirects air flow away from the receiving person. It’s a better question.

Then, if you are indoors, ask what the ventillation system does to trap or expel the virus before it builds up on the room.

I agree that, if you are in a poorly ventilated room with lots of people, you need an N95. But you also need to ask yourself why you are in that room at all.

The waterloo study answered that question as well. Through the material, the cloth masks had only a 50% reduction. If someone just sneezed behind you on a bus, airplane or classroom, that cloth mask isn't doing much (surgical better).

 

[Grace T.]

Particle reduction? You’re still thinking of masks as filters. Ask whether the mask redirects air flow away from the receiving person. It’s a better question.

Then, if you are indoors, ask what the ventillation system does to trap or expel the virus before it builds up on the room.

I agree that, if you are in a poorly ventilated room with lots of people, you need an N95. But you also need to ask yourself why you are in that room at all.

p.s. in more proof that it was never going to end with just masking (and this one I'm mad about)...testing is required 48 hours prior to games in LA County for both vaxxed and unvaxxed participants in the high contact sports, including soccer....it was never going to end with just masks.

 

[Grace T.]

p.s. in more proof that it was never going to end with just masking (and this one I'm mad about)...testing is required 48 hours prior to games in LA County for both vaxxed and unvaxxed participants in the high contact sports, including soccer....it was never going to end with just masks.

and the shittiest thing of all is they aren't doing this for waiters, they aren't doing this for bus drivers, they aren't doing this for office workers, they aren't doing it for doctors, all of whom are in higher risk environments than outdoor sports. Once again, kids are getting shafted.

 

[Grace T.]

Well, believe it or not I wasn't really enthusiastic about the Newsom recall. Yeah, I wanted the election to happen as a check on his actions, but removing him was a different story. My ballot has been sitting there. I'm not really enthusiastic about any of the R candidates (at first I was onboard with Jenner til she went full Trumpian and then her campaign exploded). I think Meet Kevin is a little crazy, and dangerous too with his rule by decree. I've never been 100% on board with the progressive reforms of the early 20th century (such as direct initiatives and voting on judges) and I had reservations about replacing the governor with less than a majority vote for the replacement. But what LA County did today convinces me when need a governor who will revoke the emergency orders that permit counties like Los Angeles to do what they just did. At a minimum, we need to send a signal regarding government overreach. Ballot in the mail. My younger brother and his wife just sent theirs in too. We even convinced my folks (a NeverTrump R and a moderate D) to send their ballots in today with the replacement blank.

 

[dad4]

The waterloo study answered that question as well. Through the material, the cloth masks had only a 50% reduction. If someone just sneezed behind you on a bus, airplane or classroom, that cloth mask isn't doing much (surgical better).

You misread the study.

All masks worked to redirect the plume. Some worked as filters, some did not.

From the study:

"Measurements demonstrate that all tested masks provide protection in the immediate vicinity of the host primarily through the redirection and reduction of expiratory momentum. However, leakages are observed to result in notable decreases in mask efficiency relative to the ideal filtration efficiency of the mask material, even in the case of high-efficiency masks, such as the R95 or KN95. Tests conducted in the far field (2 m distance from the subject) capture significant aerosol build-up in the indoor space over a long duration (10 h). "

Experimental investigation of indoor aerosol dispersion and accumulation in the context of COVID-19: Effects of masks and ventilation

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of aerosol dispersion in disease transmission in indoor environments. The present study experimentally investigates the dispersion and b...

aip.scitation.org

Interestingly, the study also indicates that good ventilation may be a more effective choice than upgrading everyone's mask.

"The results also suggest that, while higher ventilation capacities are required to fully mitigate aerosol build-up, even relatively low air-change rates (2 h−1) lead to lower aerosol build-up compared to the best performing mask in an unventilated space."

 

[Grace T.]

You misread the study.

All masks worked to redirect the plume. Some worked as filters, some did not.

From the study:

"Measurements demonstrate that all tested masks provide protection in the immediate vicinity of the host primarily through the redirection and reduction of expiratory momentum. However, leakages are observed to result in notable decreases in mask efficiency relative to the ideal filtration efficiency of the mask material, even in the case of high-efficiency masks, such as the R95 or KN95. Tests conducted in the far field (2 m distance from the subject) capture significant aerosol build-up in the indoor space over a long duration (10 h). "

Experimental investigation of indoor aerosol dispersion and accumulation in the context of COVID-19: Effects of masks and ventilation

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of aerosol dispersion in disease transmission in indoor environments. The present study experimentally investigates the dispersion and b...

aip.scitation.org

Interestingly, the study also indicates that good ventilation may be a more effective choice than upgrading everyone's mask.

"The results also suggest that, while higher ventilation capacities are required to fully mitigate aerosol build-up, even relatively low air-change rates (2 h−1) lead to lower aerosol build-up compared to the best performing mask in an unventilated space."

Different section. I'm not going to hunt for it now (too busy given what LA County just did) but there is a section in there that speaks directly to cloth masks and a 50% reduction through the material.

I agree the study says good ventilation may be a more effective choice than upgrading everyone's mask. Good ventilation may be a more effective choice than even cloth masks from the study. The problem with ventilation, though, is it's baked into some structures (particularly Costco's or crowded supermarkets on sunday afternoon) and expensive to improve without improving the entire building circulatory system. It is, however, in SoCal more evidence that school outside would be better than masks indoors, particularly given the age of some of the classrooms (even those with ventilation upgrades)

 

[dad4]

Different section. I'm not going to hunt for it now (too busy given what LA County just did) but there is a section in there that speaks directly to cloth masks and a 50% reduction through the material.

I agree the study says good ventilation may be a more effective choice than upgrading everyone's mask. Good ventilation may be a more effective choice than even cloth masks from the study. The problem with ventilation, though, is it's baked into some structures (particularly Costco's or crowded supermarkets on sunday afternoon) and expensive to improve without improving the entire building circulatory system. It is, however, in SoCal more evidence that school outside would be better than masks indoors, particularly given the age of some of the classrooms (even those with ventilation upgrades)

Good luck getting any progress on the repeated test requirement for sports. Reminds me of the previous discussion on why did we close schools and open the restaurants. Kids can’t defend themselves politically, so they get the worst of it.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Good luck getting any progress on the repeated test requirement for sports. Reminds me of the previous discussion on why did we close schools and open the restaurants. Kids can’t defend themselves politically, so they get the worst of it.

… is from page 431 of Tom Palmer’s 1997 essay “The Literature of Liberty” as this essay is reprinted in Tom’s superb 2009 book, Realizing Freedom:

One way of understanding the history of modern civilization is as a constant struggle between liberty and power.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

You misread the study.

All masks worked to redirect the plume. Some worked as filters, some did not.

From the study:

"Measurements demonstrate that all tested masks provide protection in the immediate vicinity of the host primarily through the redirection and reduction of expiratory momentum. However, leakages are observed to result in notable decreases in mask efficiency relative to the ideal filtration efficiency of the mask material, even in the case of high-efficiency masks, such as the R95 or KN95. Tests conducted in the far field (2 m distance from the subject) capture significant aerosol build-up in the indoor space over a long duration (10 h). "

Experimental investigation of indoor aerosol dispersion and accumulation in the context of COVID-19: Effects of masks and ventilation

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of aerosol dispersion in disease transmission in indoor environments. The present study experimentally investigates the dispersion and b...

aip.scitation.org

Interestingly, the study also indicates that good ventilation may be a more effective choice than upgrading everyone's mask.

"The results also suggest that, while higher ventilation capacities are required to fully mitigate aerosol build-up, even relatively low air-change rates (2 h−1) lead to lower aerosol build-up compared to the best performing mask in an unventilated space."

“Was Germany’s Corona Lockdown Necessary?” by Christof Kuhbandner, Stefan Homburg, Harald Walach, Stefan Hockertz. Advance: Sage Preprint, June 23, 2020


“Official data from Germany’s RKI agency suggest strongly that the spread of the coronavirus in Germany receded autonomously, before any interventions became effective. Several reasons for such an autonomous decline have been suggested. One is that differences in host susceptibility and behavior can result in herd immunity at a relatively low prevalence level. Accounting for individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to the coronavirus yields a maximum of 17% to 20% of the population that needs to be infected to reach herd immunity, an estimate that is empirically supported by the cohort of the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Another reason is that seasonality may also play an important role in dissipation.”

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Particle reduction? You’re still thinking of masks as filters. Ask whether the mask redirects air flow away from the receiving person. It’s a better question.

Then, if you are indoors, ask what the ventillation system does to trap or expel the virus before it builds up on the room.

I agree that, if you are in a poorly ventilated room with lots of people, you need an N95. But you also need to ask yourself why you are in that room at all.

“Comment on Flaxman et al. (2020): The illusory effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe” by Stefan Homburg and Christof Kuhbandner. June 17, 2020. Advance, Sage Pre-Print.

“In a recent article, Flaxman et al. allege that non-pharmaceutical interventions imposed by 11 European countries saved millions of lives. We show that their methods involve circular reasoning. The purported effects are pure artefacts, which contradict the data. Moreover, we demonstrate that the United Kingdom’s lockdown was both superfluous and ineffective.”

 

[Bruddah IZ]

LA's rules sound ok. Masks and vaccines have solid evidence behind them. Let me know when a high vax city (above 80% for over 12) goes beyond vaccine passports.

Hawaii sounds like they want to blame the tourists for community spread. Closing beaches does a good job of driving away tourists, but it won't solve their covid problem.

Professor Ben Israel’s Analysis of virus transmission. April 16, 2020

“Some may claim that the decline in the number of additional patients every day is a result of the tight lockdown imposed by the government and health authorities. Examining the data of different countries around the world casts a heavy question mark on the above statement. It turns out that a similar pattern – rapid increase in infections that reaches a peak in the sixth week and declines from the eighth week – is common to all countries in which the disease was discovered, regardless of their response policies: some imposed a severe and immediate lockdown that included not only ‘social distancing’ and banning crowding, but also shutout of economy (like Israel); some ‘ignored’ the infection and continued almost a normal life (such as Taiwan, Korea or Sweden), and some initially adopted a lenient policy but soon reversed to a complete lockdown (such as Italy or the State of New York). Nonetheless, the data shows similar time constants amongst all these countries in regard to the initial rapid growth and the decline of the disease.”