Interesting hypothesis that is NOT supported by the data. The example of the coaches with over 100 years experience not picking winners was NOT about the coaches picking players too early. Rather, it was an example of experienced coaches using the wrong criteria to select elite players. Ankersen also gave the example of the NFL using an IQ test for quarterbacks that didn’t work and he also cited the Oakland A’s use of analytics to determine on base average was the correct criteria as opposed to speed and power to select players.
The criteria that should be used according to Ankersen is: which players are consistently willing to put in extra work and/or which players have potential to improve with professional coaching.
To me, it makes no sense to delay identifying talent. I think the elite 14 y/o runs the risk of becoming a gifted underachiever because the environment is not challenging.
I also think the PARENTS of kids w/o the genetics are exploited and given false hope.
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