So at what age do you think you can accurately predict a lid will be a successful collegiate player. What level of play should they be at in their early years?
Never, because you never know what might take them out. Our minister's kid earned a scholarship to a college with a top level baseball team as a pitcher....he missed his senior year of high school due to a shoulder injury, had a long road to recovery after surgeries, got game ready, and then in the first game he played for his college team he had an ADHD meltdown which was truly heartbreaking to watch. He dropped out and is bumming around Oregon now.
Even among child prodigies in other fields (whether acting, academics, music or sports) only between 10% and 1/3 will be successful in the field as an adult, with the percentage varying on the field and how you define what is in fact a unicorn.