The experts, by and large, did ok.Policy making blurs into expert opinions but we are better off NOT having subject matter experts make policy. The very fact that they are an expert in a given area makes it less likely they are capable of a measured assessment of all risk. Unfortunately, political partisanship is much more common than the wisdom necessary to approach these policy decisions while considering all the risks involved.
For example, cloth masks were a quite reasonable measure against the strains in circulation in April of 2020. R0 was only 2-3 back then. You didn’t need much. You just had to do it consistently.
Unfortunately, we had a national disinformation campaign dedicated to talking people out of wearing the masks. A few thousand epidemiologists and air quality engineers aren‘t going to out-shout Fox News. So we had maybe 50% compliance. People would wear a mask at the grocer, but not when friends arrive for dinner.
That doesn’t mean the original advice was bad. Most advice fails when you don’t follow it.