19% increase in deaths in 2020, 4% increase in deaths long term. That’s a realistic description.Oh, right - especially since no one ever died or nothing bad happened to anyone before COVID. Looks to me like 8000 people die in the US each day. So, 2200 a week from 56,000. Looks like about a 4% increase in tissue use - assuming all those people who are dying with COVID would not have died otherwise.
I found this interesting. There was about a 19% increase in deaths in 2020 compared to 2019. I really wonder what many people would guess for the increase in the rate of death due to COVID if they had to give an answer.
What are the leading causes of death in the US? | USAFacts
In 2022, heart disease, cancer, and accidents were the leading causes of death. Out of the nearly 3.3 million deaths in 2022, over 1.5 million, or 47%, were due to one of these three causes. The fourth, fifth, and sixth most common causes were COVID-19, cerebrovascular diseases, and chronic...usafacts.org
Vaccine
- Thread starter Multi Sport
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kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
It's interesting to see how people react to facts. It gives insight into their thinking - or lack thereof. I simply presented facts that give context to the number @dad4 presented, and you brought up the idea that it minimized what is happening. What, exactly, are you arguing? Was it misinformation? No. Was it misleading? No. In fact, it gave important context to @dad4's number. I understand these are emotional times, and rational thought can be difficult, but, try harder.
Desert Hound
DA
Finding a rational thought in huskers ramblings feels like a quest to find the 7 cities of gold....a pointless exercise.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
I will nit-pick about the use of "long term." As you well know, long term, everyone dies. I am sure you meant death earlier than without COVID, but it does bring up a question. Do you expect the increased death rate to continue into the coming years? I would think at some point long term, the COVID effect would become insignificant, and the death rate would actually decrease - not for any good reason, simply because those projected to die in the time period had already died.
Desert Hound
DA
Lets not forget that a rather LARGE percentage of deaths during covid happened in nursing homes. The place you send people to die. For some time that percentage constituted 40% plus of all deaths. It has remained a significantly high number.
Hüsker Dü
DA
Your misunderstanding is acceptable in this case. I simply meant, as a whole, overall, you seem to go to great lengths in an attempt to minimize the reality that there is a there there. Unless one has personally been touched by Covid it’s still just an abstract, numbers to be jumbled this way and that to the liking of the user. Aka the risk is not 0, the outcomes are not all manageable and the effects are not all slight . . . but continue on with your clinical dissection of data and numbers. Never mind something that has been a determining factor in so many deaths. I mean heck dude had a underlying issues he was bound to die someday.
The leader this group answers to wants less people on the earth and that is 100% true. The deaths are going up and up so so so they can depopulate the earth. Do you see da plan yet? If you lived a good life, it's your time to give way to the young elitist kids. They don;t want bastard kids and or adoptions going on, they want to use those kids for spare parts or for ritual sacrifice. No more births=less people to deal with. Look how they attack and kill kids and use kids as pawns. These are sic monsters were dealing with K & S, regardless if you never agree with me on anything.....
There will be fewer deaths because some people already died early, and more deaths because everyone is getting older, so some people will get old enough to become vulnerable to covid.
That option is best described as “steady state with a slightly lower life expectancy“. On average, deaths will occur slightly earlier due to the existence of one more possible cause of death.
Long term, I expect us to occasionally get surprised by a new variant because we aren’t updating the vaccines. Averages out to slightly worse than we are seeing now.
Obviously, that's because the vaccine provides very little protection against infection. That's well established by the data and what we're all seeing with our own eyes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in complete denial of the evidence, either out of fear or the desire to still control behavior through mandates.
I think what were seeing in terms of deaths from/with Covid could probably be categorized into 3 groups. 1) those that were killed straight up with Covid which is a minimum of 5% of the deaths, 2) those that Covid contributed to and/or accelerated their death 3) those who died as Covid positive where Covid had nothing to do with their death. Categories 2) and 3) are something less than 95% of all deaths. But as between the breakdown of these two categories we just don't have the data to know at this point.
What's the latest on long haulers?
Setting aside long haulers, we still don't know the long term impact of having been infected, just like we don't know the long term impact of the vaccines. I will say "so far, so good" for both, but we just can't say with any certainty...only time will tell.
Desert Hound
DA
The one thing we do know with certainty is that the policies failed.
-rising inflation
-rising interest rates
- savings wiped out for many
- school closures screwed kids
and the news just keeps getting worse.
And none of policies helped stop the spread. They did however screw everything else up.
On the long haulers there were competing studies that were released. Out of the UK, they are finding the long haulers have a strong correlation to anxiety/depression suggesting that it may be mostly psychological stress from the illness. The caveat was that study was smallish and therefore couldn't capture rare events (such as what also has been suggested happens with the COVID vaccine) and didn't examine serious life threatening cases for which there might be secondary issues. Out of the CDC, a study which suggested 20% of people have long hauler. The critique was that the cutoff was 1 month, only used serious cases that were tested in the denominator and didn't account for long viral syndrome which takes place in other diseases such as the flu/cold (I myself suffered from long RSV last summer for about 3 months).
I have a hard time believing that 20% of those infected are long haulers, I guess it really comes down to how it is defined. To me a long hauler is someone that continues to have Covid symptoms months after the infection. It can certainly take those with co-conditions a lot longer to recover from Covid by exacerbating those conditions but I don't see that as having "long haul" Covid. Not that that wouldn't be equally unpleasant.
100%. The alleged cure was far worse than the disease. The worst part was these results were predictable to a large extent. Unfortunately, fear, emotion, power and politics overcame common sense. Good news is that, except for the die hard partisans, the public is fighting back, particularly parents. Maybe it was the wake up call that some needed. (sorry for using a derivative of "woke")
(Cue the partisans mischaracterizing that I don't care, I'm ignoring or minimizing that $1 million died).
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
My "misunderstanding" Hahaha! I did nothing of the sort. You're attempting to control the narrative and you don't like the facts. What a useless tool.
Watty, please tell me how many people died from the Flu last two years?
Our half-assed effort to mask, distance, and vaccinate saved about 1M lives, mostly among the old and sick.
It also made the recession a lot worse, and put millions out of work.
You seem to want to talk about only one side of the equation. Counterfactuals are ok, as long as we are talking about the possible benefits of skipping lockdowns. But similar counterfactuals about the possible costs of skipping lockdowns are somehow invalid.
Whoopi Goldberg: If women can’t have abortions we’re ‘going to come for’ guns, ‘get ready to give them up’
o.k. I'll bite. How'd you come up with the 1M? And it's not just 1M. It's 1M from "half-assed" mask/distancing (yeah I know you mention vaccines, but that's a bit of a cheat...you can't equate lockdowns, which have been shown to not be very effective in various post lockdown studies, or even masks ["masks are better than vaccines" notwithstanding] to something which has been shown to really reduce the IFR, which is vaccination).
Pure speculation.
Curious to know what people's experience within their group as to people that were infected? I'd estimate that within my personal community 80-90% were infected at some point (I suspect that other's experience is different). The vast majority of which were never reported and mostly Omicron. No one passed, the few I'm aware of were at least 4 degrees of separation. That is in part why I'm skeptical of 1 mm more deaths. Maybe, but I just don't see any compelling evidence to support that number.
With the exception of full quarantine with no human contact, its clear that virus didn't give a shit about what you did (in terms of infection). Luck played a large role in whether you were infected though. It's clear to me that the vaccine and prior infection was helpful in preventing severe symptoms.