Vaccine

EvilGoalie 21 said:
Just project exponential decay. come on.
Significant compared to what
See #10332
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1. o.k. so eventually approaching zero after a certain number of weeks. The relevant number is the floor (at least over a year) because you aren't going to get people to keep boosting every 3 months and in any case the Israeli data seems to show a diminishing return to boosters. Otherwise, all you are doing is pushing infections out in time (hence the relevant number being the floor)
2. relative to zero. come on. And if we project that one out further, it also approaches zero (in some errant data collection even a slight negative, which made not very much sense)
3. cool.
 
Kicker 2.0 said:
I ran a Spartan race with a group of guys a few years back. 2 months later one of the fathers died of complications from the flu. He too was in “perfect” health. Not sure what your point is……but sadly, death happens.
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Like Biden, he has no point, just rambles mindlessly.
 
kickingandscreaming said:
Well, in my neck of the woods in the Bay Area, things haven't been so great. Downtown we had a 16-year-old girl get her neck slashed a few months back in the middle of the afternoon while walking through town. Fortunately, she survived. The high-end mall near our home has been looted, openly, by both organized gangs that rush in and out as well as casual shop-lifters doing so at their leisure and leaving Nordstrom without security in sight. My wife asked one of the workers if she knew what was going on and she said they did. After that, I warned my wife that with the general lack of security the thieves will start to get bolder and accost individuals. Well, a couple of months later (two days ago) we had an armed robbery (possibly a "replica" handgun) of two diners eating outside at the mall (not @dad4, it was two ladies) in broad daylight. The thief was seen riding off on one of those Facebook/Google bikes. Those bikes aren't built for speed. They still haven't found him 2 days later. I'm taking a little break from the mall until they get their security issues figured out. Of course, it's not just the mall or downtown, on Monday I was going to add a few more things to the recycling bin at about 7:15 AM and as I walked out my front door, I realized a homeless person was sleeping on my porch. I was so shocked I almost laughed out loud.

So, at best Mr. "Everything is great here in Norcal" is clueless, at worst he's not even real - simply a troll espousing an ideology and being dishonest while doing it.
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Sounds like the world is collapsing around you. There's probably a support group that can help you. Are you suggesting the vaccine is to blame for that crime? I suspect some of our SoCal friends here have PLENTY more stories to tell when it comes to crime. I can give you stories much worse than what you've told from my time growing up in SoCal (one image comes to mind a classmate, who was in a gang, with an AK-47 being shot down by police). Not gaslighting the crime you're seeing, but that stuff has been going on for ages and has nothing to do with the pandemic, the virus, or the vaccine. I have friends in the police force that could tell stories for days.
 
NorCalDad said:
Sounds like the world is collapsing around you. There's probably a support group that can help you. Are you suggesting the vaccine is to blame for that crime? I suspect some of our SoCal friends here have PLENTY more stories to tell when it comes to crime. I can give you stories much worse than what you've told from my time growing up in SoCal (one image comes to mind a classmate, who was in a gang, with an AK-47 being shot down by police). Not gaslighting the crime you're seeing, but that stuff has been going on for ages and has nothing to do with the pandemic, the virus, or the vaccine. I have friends in the police force that could tell stories for days.
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To be fair I've seen things in SF that nobody should have had to witness. I wasn't suggesting there's more crime in SoCal (I have no idea). Just that crime has always been around. Maybe a good discussion for another OFF TOPIC thread.
 
Grace T. said:
1. o.k. so eventually approaching zero after a certain number of weeks. The relevant number is the floor (at least over a year) because you aren't going to get people to keep boosting every 3 months and in any case the Israeli data seems to show a diminishing return to boosters. Otherwise, all you are doing is pushing infections out in time (hence the relevant number being the floor)
2. relative to zero. come on. And if we project that one out further, it also approaches zero (in some errant data collection even a slight negative, which made not very much sense)
3. cool.
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OK, so eventually is not useful is you want to talk about what is and is not significant. Pop the UK VE data in Excel and exponential decay y=87.5e(-0.093x) has R(2) = 0.98). Pretty good fit. y = 0 at ~87 weeks. Which fits generally with what you'd expect for duration of an Ab response, either with vaxx, infection. Looking at the crappy CDC study released today, its frankly embarrassing that we can't generate useful data like the UK and a few other EU countries are doing. They are kicking our ass.

Significant relative to 0. OK so with that curve fit from above, even without booster and the getting the jab with the crappiest of the vaccines, you have significant-by your definition-Ab based immunity for 87 weeks.

It is cool. Little differences in VE add up in terms of reduction in cases. The point is reducing infections in the here and now matters. Why? Reduced total number of virus reduces probability of the next variant getting hatched and yet another wave. It is good empidemiology to stretch things out with omicron. Your original example was chickenpox. Chickenpox is chickenpox. Some kids got it last year, some this year, some will get it next year. But its still chickenpox. It's evolutionarily stable which is what endemic really means. Increase the odds of omicron becoming the endemic form of Cov-2 by stretching it out as much as possible? I'll take that scenario. Doesn't solve the longer term problem of emergent forms from resevoirs that our kids will be dealing with but a bit of a break would be nice.
 
NorCalDad said:
Just that crime has always been around. Maybe a good discussion for another OFF TOPIC thread.
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Agree on both points. Crime goes in cycles based on the economy and policy - independent of vaccines. It is on the uptick in the Bay Area and in most Blue States and that doesn't bode well for the Dems in the next election cycle. Now that may have an effect on what vaccine policy is put forth. As we saw with the recall, nothing changes #science like the prospect of not getting re-elected.
 
EvilGoalie 21 said:
The point is reducing infections in the here and now matters. Why? Reduced total number of virus reduces probability of the next variant getting hatched and yet another wave. It is good empidemiology to stretch things out with omicron.
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The chink in the armor is the rest of the world. Africa and Asia will have a big say in when the next variant comes along. A break will be nice and the hope that the virus continues its current evolutionary trend.
 
EvilGoalie 21 said:
OK, so eventually is not useful is you want to talk about what is and is not significant. Pop the UK VE data in Excel and exponential decay y=87.5e(-0.093x) has R(2) = 0.98). Pretty good fit. y = 0 at ~87 weeks. Which fits generally with what you'd expect for duration of an Ab response, either with vaxx, infection. Looking at the crappy CDC study released today, its frankly embarrassing that we can't generate useful data like the UK and a few other EU countries are doing. They are kicking our ass.

Significant relative to 0. OK so with that curve fit from above, even without booster and the getting the jab with the crappiest of the vaccines, you have significant-by your definition-Ab based immunity for 87 weeks.

It is cool. Little differences in VE add up in terms of reduction in cases. The point is reducing infections in the here and now matters. Why? Reduced total number of virus reduces probability of the next variant getting hatched and yet another wave. It is good empidemiology to stretch things out with omicron. Your original example was chickenpox. Chickenpox is chickenpox. Some kids got it last year, some this year, some will get it next year. But its still chickenpox. It's evolutionarily stable which is what endemic really means. Increase the odds of omicron becoming the endemic form of Cov-2 by stretching it out as much as possible? I'll take that scenario. Doesn't solve the longer term problem of emergent forms from resevoirs that our kids will be dealing with but a bit of a break would be nice.
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You lost me at reduce the probability of the next wave. You do realize large swaths of the third world aren’t being vaccinated at the rates of the west. Then look at all the graphs of omicron infections even in highly vaxxed countries. Then the zoonotic reserve (or if you prefer the aids immunocompromised theory. Plenty of room (football stadium sized room, city block sized room, isle of sodor sized room) for new variants. Get back to me when the mouse problem has been eliminated.
 
Grace T. said:
You lost me at reduce the probability of the next wave. You do realize large swaths of the third world aren’t being vaccinated at the rates of the west. Then look at all the graphs of omicron infections even in highly vaxxed countries. Then the zoonotic reserve (or if you prefer the aids immunocompromised theory. Plenty of room (football stadium sized room, city block sized room, isle of sodor sized room) for new variants. Get back to me when the mouse problem has been eliminated.
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And here we are talking about 3rd, 4th shots and “vaccinating” 5 yr olds and under.
 
Grace T. said:
You lost me at reduce the probability of the next wave. You do realize large swaths of the third world aren’t being vaccinated at the rates of the west. Then look at all the graphs of omicron infections even in highly vaxxed countries. Then the zoonotic reserve (or if you prefer the aids immunocompromised theory. Plenty of room (football stadium sized room, city block sized room, isle of sodor sized room) for new variants. Get back to me when the mouse problem has been eliminated.
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Ps just read an article out of India finding the Sputnik vaccines declines slower and is more robust against the omicron (almost twice as much). Guess the Russians win the competition both for speed and efficacy of it holds up. China still in last place.
 
Grace T. said:
Ps just read an article out of India finding the Sputnik vaccines declines slower and is more robust against the omicron (almost twice as much). Guess the Russians win the competition both for speed and efficacy of it holds up. China still in last place.
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So, switching out potassium chloride with vodka was a smart move after all? China? Seems like karma.

IIRC, they "encouraged" some in the Russian military to take Sputnik very early.
 
NorCalDad said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1483792624721010689
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The cases chart only tells part of the story. First it cuts off at 12/19 where there’s still a bunch of delta floating around and we know the unvaxxed are susceptible to both delta and omicron. Second, and this might actually help your case of the proportion is high, but the unvaxxed line doesn’t distinguish between the naturally immune and the immuno naive. Third, if we cut out just the immuno naive, at that point you have a small sample size v a large. Fourth, the comparison to the city rate is useful…a moderate size of failure is still a very large number.
 
Actually the problem is that in places like SF they are not protecting the taxpayer.

They keep making excuses and create laws/policies that protect the criminal class and disadvantage the productive part of society.

Further what you see now was easily predictable, and yet this is what was/is pursued.
 
Desert Hound said:
By the way for espola and how the press carries water for a certain side.

Read through it. This story was proven false almost immediately and yet look how it spread like wildfire.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1483960962763968515
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Carry water? I posted links to two non-partisan analyses of media bias. Didn't you read them? Or look at the pictures?

I'm guessing not, since you followed with criticism that they must be biased because they never post stories that make you feel good about your personal political positions.
 
espola said:
Carry water? I posted links to two non-partisan analyses of media bias. Didn't you read them? Or look at the pictures?

I'm guessing not, since you followed with criticism that they must be biased because they never post stories that make you feel good about your personal political positions.
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Here's another version --

1642752274163.png
 
kickingandscreaming said:
Ugh. Well, again, it's the bed the media made. I found this one further down the string. Wow.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1483871069383573508
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The hard lefty's are snitches, tattle talers, gossipers, liars, cheaters and back stabbers and will save themselves first. My good friends from the left side have been honest, eyes wide open and high five me. The bad cheaters on left, their losing their shits and it's all over their faces. TGIF bro. love you man :)
 
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