Vaccine
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EvilGoalie 21
GOLD
Kulldorf's at Harvard so he presumably has/had some chops. But it also means he's got to bring in the flow, not just public funding agency flow but deep pocket flow. He's one of the Barrington Declaration people. Its interesting that it seems to me epidemiology draws from at least two different groups, which can tend to have different political leanings. There's immunology with a kind of medical let's help people orientation and then the more mathematical side of epidemiology which can be pretty pure Darwinian in it's outlook. So in Kulldorf's case he gets a lot of support from conservative economic think tanks. And of course there will be the left wing equivalent of that. All well and good in terms of academic debate that can be considered by policy makers I guess. But its also the sort of thing that affords low hanging fruit in the infodemic, ready made to order tweets that can be picked up and sprayed out all over the internet by whatever actors are driving this. And in Kulldorf's case if you bother to circle back and click I'm sure it helps sell his book. Notoriety is good.
I don’t doubt he knows how to do the math properly. Part of his job is to mark down the grad students when they make that exact error.
I wouldn’t count on policy makers to be able to follow it, though. I’ve been in that room. They will hear nothing more than that there are famous sounding people arguing both ways. Arguably, that is the goal of the weaker side in each debate: throw enough sand that it’s all blurry.
Your bias is showing
I see we've moved on from the let's question the person's credentials/abilities phase, and are now in the let's question his motives.
notintheface
GOLD
This is the stupidest thread on this entire board. All of you antivaxxers aren't going to convince anyone of anything. What are people going to do, take the t-cells out of their body?
a. I see your charming self is lurking here again. Any more c words you want to throw around?
b. If it's so stupid, why ya here?
c. Don't paint all of us with the broad stroke. Some of antilockdowners are not antivaxxer.
d. Your "stupidest thread" claim is demonstrably false. Climate and Weather, President Joe Biden, Today in Fascism and Espola's neighborhood are all more stupid, and that is self-evident.
Fair enough. Let’s talk about the actual argument he put forward. He claimed that the CI was 0-22%.
To get this result, he did round things to the nearest whole number in a way which changed the answer. Normally, that’s a big no-no on the AP. Are you saying it’s actually good practice?
At least for public entities, in the US the vaccine mandates are going to get legally tricky unless: a) there's some exemption for people who can demonstrate they've had COVID, or b) there's some definitive evidence that shows natural immunity is less than vaccine immunity (recent evidence has pointed contra, but it hasn't been definitively resolved). This case settled, but George Mason wound up having to grant a medical exemption to the professor who said he had COVID before, but the professor was forced to live with some restrictions like testing which he didn't want. There will probably be more lawsuits.
www.hrdive.com
George Mason University grants vaccine exemption following prof's lawsuit
The professor claimed the vaccine was unnecessary because of his natural immunity, but GMU maintains that natural immunity is not grounds for an exemption.
EvilGoalie 21
GOLD
A lawyer one told me that the expert with the best looking shoes wins.
Better. I would never presume to take up math with you (tip of the hat). You'd have to take it up with him (he answers most sincere challenges on twitter....go for it....if your math credentials are really up to snuff he'll respect you). I'm not boosting him. I'm saying the discussion (including the challenges to him) are interesting.
It's actually the one with the most gray hair.
No need. I got my ego boost back in my undergrad days by getting Marty Feldstein to have to issue a correction in front of the entire class. Tripping up Kulldorf on a stats error is small potatoes after that.
I suppose that since you are making a judgment on espola's neighborhood that means you actually read it.
To quote a famous man -- "Mission Accomplished"
(...and it's espola's newest neighborhood now...)
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Damn, did someone say "misogynistic troll" three times?
Desert Hound
DA
Desert Hound
DA
By the way here is the link to the article
www.theatlantic.com
"But if a country indefinitely forbids its own citizens from leaving its borders, strands tens of thousands of its citizens abroad, puts strict rules on intrastate travel, prohibits citizens from leaving home without an excuse from an official government list, mandates masks even when people are outdoors and socially distanced, deploys the military to enforce those rules, bans protest, and arrests and fines dissenters, is that country still a liberal democracy?"
Australia Traded Away Too Much Liberty
How long can a democracy maintain emergency restrictions and still call itself a free country?
www.theatlantic.com
"But if a country indefinitely forbids its own citizens from leaving its borders, strands tens of thousands of its citizens abroad, puts strict rules on intrastate travel, prohibits citizens from leaving home without an excuse from an official government list, mandates masks even when people are outdoors and socially distanced, deploys the military to enforce those rules, bans protest, and arrests and fines dissenters, is that country still a liberal democracy?"
By the way here is the link to the article
Australia Traded Away Too Much Liberty
How long can a democracy maintain emergency restrictions and still call itself a free country?
"But if a country indefinitely forbids its own citizens from leaving its borders, strands tens of thousands of its citizens abroad, puts strict rules on intrastate travel, prohibits citizens from leaving home without an excuse from an official government list, mandates masks even when people are outdoors and socially distanced, deploys the military to enforce those rules, bans protest, and arrests and fines dissenters, is that country still a liberal democracy?"
And yet.....
Australia COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Australia Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info
Even if they are at peak it's still at least another month and a half of restrictions if they are trying to drive it down to zero again (which is about the same time frame anyways they'll get a helping hand due to changing seasonality)
One of the selling points with Australia has been that economically they've overperformed the other economies hit by COVID. Not so much anymore.And yet.....
Australia COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Australia Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
Even if they are at peak it's still at least another month and a half of restrictions if they are trying to drive it down to zero again (which is about the same time frame anyways they'll get a helping hand due to changing seasonality)
Forget the technical jargon – Australia’s in a Covid recession right now
The country mightn’t technically be in recession but most of the figures amid widespread lockdowns are grim, apart from property sales
www.theguardian.com
EvilGoalie 21
GOLD
I have not been by since the last badger sighting but climate and weather from about 4 years ago (if memory serves) was one of my favorite threads I've ever jumped on, here or elsewhere. I take it a lot of the posters from that time (although there are still some long-haulers!) have moved on. The infodemic was just in its infancy. It had not yet been professionalized and the methods fine tuned to the point that we see here. So you still had these individual groups who were going to all the trouble to create alternative data sets that they would upload onto the internet, which would then get picked up and show up on the soccer forum somehow. Like they'd wrap a light bulb in tin foil, heat it up, turn it off, take some readings with a digital thermocouple, plug it all into a spreadsheet and conclude that the entirety of black body radiation physics had to be wrong. It was like getting to play along inside a Firesign Theatre skit. So that one was a lot of fun actually. Thanks E for the good times!
As I recall we even had poetry corner time outs when things would get a little heated.