Vaccine

[Bruddah IZ]

Another point I forgot to include -- the teacher was unvaccinated. If the school district cannot enforce a vaccination requirement for teachers, can they at least provide informed consent to parents, warning them which teachers are not vaccinated?

Mask supporters often claim that we have no choice but to rely on observational studies instead of RCTs, because RCTs cannot tell us whether masks work or not. But what they really mean is that they don’t like what the RCTs show.

The randomized controlled trial dates, in a sense, to 1747, when Royal Navy surgeon James Lind divided seamen suffering from similar cases of scurvy into six pairs and tried different methods of treatment on each. Lind writes, “The consequence was, that the most sudden and visible good effects were perceived from the use of oranges and lemons.”

The RCT eventually became firmly established as the most reliable way to test medical interventions. The following passage, from Abdelhamid Attia, an M.D. and professor of obstetrics and gynecology at Cairo University in Egypt, conveys its dominance:

The importance of RCTs for clinical practice can be illustrated by its impact on the shift of practice in hormone replacement therapy (HRT). For decades HRT was considered the standard care for all postmenopausal, symptomatic and asymptomatic women. Evidence for the effectiveness of HRT relied always on observational studies[,] mostly cohort studies. But a single RCT that was published in 2002 . . . has changed clinical practice all over the world from the liberal use of HRT to the conservative use in selected symptomatic cases and for the shortest period of time. In other words, one well conducted RCT has changed the practice that relied on tens, and probably hundreds, of observational studies for decades.

Do Masks Work? A Review Of The Evidence

 

[Grace T.]

Gottlieb is reporting Pfizer to file authorization 5-12 in October. Fda likely to make a decision on eu by late December.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Outbreak Associated with SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta)...

COVID-19 outbreak associated with an unvaccinated infected teacher in an elementary school from May–June 2021 in Marin County, California.

www.cdc.gov

The CDC asserts this even though its own statistics show that Covid-19 is not much of a threat to schoolchildren. Its numbers show that more people under the age of 18 died of influenza during the 2018–19 flu season—a season of “moderate severity” that lasted eight months—than have died of Covid-19 across more than 18 months. What’s more, the CDC says that out of every 1,738 Covid-19-related deaths in the U.S. in 2020 and 2021, just one has involved someone under 18 years of age; and out of every 150 deaths of someone under 18 years of age, just one has been Covid-related. Yet the CDC declares that schoolchildren, who learn in part from communication conveyed through facial expressions, should nevertheless hide their faces—and so should their teachers.

How did mask guidance change so profoundly? Did the medical research on the effectiveness of masks change—and in a remarkably short period of time—or just the guidance on wearing them?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

A 2016 study in Beijing by MacIntyre, et al. that claimed to find a possible benefit of masks did not prove very informative, as only one person in the control group—and one in the mask group—developed a laboratory-confirmed infection. Much more illuminating was a 2010 study in France by Canini, et al., which randomly placed sick people, or “index patients,” and their household contacts together into either a mask group or a no-mask control group. The authors “observed a good adherence to the intervention,” meaning that the index patients generally wore the furnished three-ply masks as intended. (No one else was asked to wear them.) Within a week, 15.8 percent of household contacts in the no-mask control group and 16.2 percent in the mask group developed an “influenza-like illness” (ILI). So, the two groups were essentially dead even, with the sliver of an advantage observed in the control group not being statistically significant. The authors write that the study “should be interpreted with caution since the lack of statistical power prevents us to draw formal conclusion regarding effectiveness of face masks in the context of a seasonal epidemic.” However, they state unequivocally, “In various sensitivity analyses, we did not identify any trend in the results suggesting effectiveness of face masks.”

 

[espola]

Gottlieb is reporting Pfizer to file authorization 5-12 in October. Fda likely to make a decision on eu by late December.

Did you intend that to be a sentence?

 

[crush]

 

[dad4]

Did you intend that to be a sentence?

damned order words be. information had useful it.

Thanks.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

"want it to be over"....you've presented a false choice....

I thought the same thing when I read it.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Outbreak Associated with SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta)...

COVID-19 outbreak associated with an unvaccinated infected teacher in an elementary school from May–June 2021 in Marin County, California.

www.cdc.gov

A 2010 study by Larson, et al. in New York found that those in the hand-hygiene group were less likely to develop any symptoms of an upper respiratory infection (42 percent experienced symptoms) than those in the mask-plus-hand-hygiene group (61 percent). This statistically significant finding suggests that wearing a mask actually undermines the benefits of hand hygiene.

A multivariable analysis of this same study found a significant difference in secondary attack rates (the rate of transmission to others) between the mask-plus-hands group and the control group. On this basis, the authors maintain that mask-wearing “should be encouraged during outbreak situations.” However, this multivariable analysis also found significantly lower rates in crowded homes—“i.e., more crowded households had less transmission”—which tested at a higher confidence level. Thus, to the extent that this multivariable analysis provided any support for masks, it provided at least as much support for crowding.

Lol! You people crack me up.

 

[espola]

A 2010 study by Larson, et al. in New York found that those in the hand-hygiene group were less likely to develop any symptoms of an upper respiratory infection (42 percent experienced symptoms) than those in the mask-plus-hand-hygiene group (61 percent). This statistically significant finding suggests that wearing a mask actually undermines the benefits of hand hygiene.

A multivariable analysis of this same study found a significant difference in secondary attack rates (the rate of transmission to others) between the mask-plus-hands group and the control group. On this basis, the authors maintain that mask-wearing “should be encouraged during outbreak situations.” However, this multivariable analysis also found significantly lower rates in crowded homes—“i.e., more crowded households had less transmission”—which tested at a higher confidence level. Thus, to the extent that this multivariable analysis provided any support for masks, it provided at least as much support for crowding.

Lol! You people crack me up.

From the actual study, not the politicized opinion of it --

" In this population, there was no detectable additional benefit of hand sanitizer or face masks over targeted education on overall rates of URIs, but mask wearing was associated with reduced secondary transmission and should be encouraged during outbreak situations. "

 

[Grace T.]

I thought the same thing when I read it.

The key is whether as the Israelis believe you need a booster every 6-8 months. If so they will, short of dragging people to get shots or ostracizing them from any civilization, never get it to 90%. You are losing significant percentages every month that you have to get revaxxed. If that really is the number as dad insists, there’s no choice but to go full uk

with Denmark, Sweden and Norway now looking towards the Uk approach, it sets up a significant clash with countries like France which have been with the vaccine passports leaning more towards the Israeli approach

The world is drifting to 5 approaches: uk/Denmark/Singapore favoring natural immunity after vax, Israel and Canada with boosters, zero covid in China oz nz, too poor to do anything in much of the world and the us mess of two very different trends. We’ll see how it shakes out.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

From the actual study, not the politicized opinion of it --

" In this population, there was no detectable additional benefit of hand sanitizer or face masks over targeted education on overall rates of URIs, but mask wearing was associated with reduced secondary transmission and should be encouraged during outbreak situations. "

You know.... versus mandated dear. Speaking of politicized.

 

[Desert Hound]

The message is not simply "stay home if you are sick". The school districts already put out that message. They even give us checklists and have us mark the checklist every morning: "Time for school. Come on, kids. Get zapped."

Guess what? Some fraction of symptomatic people go to school anyway. They think it is a cold, or allergies. Or they never noticed the fever, because they forgot to take their temperature. And there they are in a room with 18 to 30 other people. Maybe they shouldn't be there, but they are

Dad. 72 million kids 17 and under. 350 deaths.

Your example above is phobia, not reality.

As many time you like to talk about mitigation measures at schools.. it doesn't matter. The data shows there is no issue.

Your the math guy.72 million with 350 deaths. Based on that attempt to justify your preferred mitigation efforts.

Lay it on us

 

[kickingandscreaming]

The key is whether as the Israelis believe you need a booster every 6-8 months. If so they will, short of dragging people to get shots or ostracizing them from any civilization, never get it to 90%. You are losing significant percentages every month that you have to get revaxxed. If that really is the number as dad insists, there’s no choice but to go full uk

with Denmark, Sweden and Norway now looking towards the Uk approach, it sets up a significant clash with countries like France which have been with the vaccine passports leaning more towards the Israeli approach

The world is drifting to 5 approaches: uk/Denmark/Singapore favoring natural immunity after vax, Israel and Canada with boosters, zero covid in China oz nz, too poor to do anything in much of the world and the us mess of two very different trends. We’ll see how it shakes out.

This is already getting a lot more interesting than I imagined a few months back.

 

[Desert Hound]

resulting in what

Nothing.

That is the part all the news stories omit

 

[dad4]

The key is whether as the Israelis believe you need a booster every 6-8 months. If so they will, short of dragging people to get shots or ostracizing them from any civilization, never get it to 90%. You are losing significant percentages every month that you have to get revaxxed. If that really is the number as dad insists, there’s no choice but to go full uk

with Denmark, Sweden and Norway now looking towards the Uk approach, it sets up a significant clash with countries like France which have been with the vaccine passports leaning more towards the Israeli approach

The world is drifting to 5 approaches: uk/Denmark/Singapore favoring natural immunity after vax, Israel and Canada with boosters, zero covid in China oz nz, too poor to do anything in much of the world and the us mess of two very different trends. We’ll see how it shakes out.

Dad wishes to remind you that previous infections help towards the 90%. That’s why I phrased it as 90% or 70% with significant previous infections. Many more was than that to get there, if you think.

My point was simply that Martha’s Vineyard is not showing exponential growth. A very high vax rate appears to be protective.

 

[Grace T.]

Dad wishes to remind you that previous infections help towards the 90%. That’s why I phrased it as 90% or 70% with significant previous infections. Many more was than that to get there, if you think.

My point was simply that Martha’s Vineyard is not showing exponential growth. A very high vax rate appears to be protective.

Yes but my point is if you rely on the vax alone and if the Israelis are right you are going to lose a portion of vaccination protection every month. If it’s true vaxx immunity wanes, and your % is right, the uk approach is the only way to get there (and if so your vaxx passport is meaningless since a % will drop out of immunity every month and the masks assuming they even work against the delta are counter productive to ending this…if 90% is the number you’d want vaccinated people to fall ill). That’s a pretty scary proposition for a lot of people and I’m not 100% there yet.

btw I wouldn’t expect exponential growth out of Martha’s Vineyard right now….low density housing, out of seasonality, high and still recent vaxx rate. Even the p town superspreader event didn’t lead to exponential growth in the surrounding area. Even sturgis didn’t in the dakotas.

 

[dad4]

Yes but my point is if you rely on the vax alone and if the Israelis are right you are going to lose a portion of vaccination protection every month. If it’s true vaxx immunity wanes, and your % is right, the uk approach is the only way to get there (and if so your vaxx passport is meaningless since a % will drop out of immunity every month and the masks assuming they even work against the delta are counter productive to ending this…if 90% is the number you’d want vaccinated people to fall ill). That’s a pretty scary proposition for a lot of people and I’m not 100% there yet.

btw I wouldn’t expect exponential growth out of Martha’s Vineyard right now….low density housing, out of seasonality, high and still recent vaxx rate. Even the p town superspreader event didn’t lead to exponential growth in the surrounding area. Even sturgis didn’t in the dakotas.

Who cares if you or I “want” 90%? That seems to be what is required. One way or another we will get there.

The only remaining question is how many choose Pfizer and how many choose Delta. Both work. Just expect a heavy thumb on the scale from businesses who would like to reopen their offices.

 

[espola]

Yes but my point is if you rely on the vax alone and if the Israelis are right you are going to lose a portion of vaccination protection every month. If it’s true vaxx immunity wanes, and your % is right, the uk approach is the only way to get there (and if so your vaxx passport is meaningless since a % will drop out of immunity every month and the masks assuming they even work against the delta are counter productive to ending this…if 90% is the number you’d want vaccinated people to fall ill). That’s a pretty scary proposition for a lot of people and I’m not 100% there yet.

btw I wouldn’t expect exponential growth out of Martha’s Vineyard right now….low density housing, out of seasonality, high and still recent vaxx rate. Even the p town superspreader event didn’t lead to exponential growth in the surrounding area. Even sturgis didn’t in the dakotas.

South Dakota Covid cases quintuple after Sturgis motorcycle rally

Meade County, home to Sturgis, has had a more than 1,500 percent increase in cases in the past 14 days.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Grace T.]

Who cares if you or I “want” 90%? That seems to be what is required. One way or another we will get there.

The only remaining question is how many choose Pfizer and how many choose Delta. Both work. Just expect a heavy thumb on the scale from businesses who would like to reopen their offices.

The problem, again, is if: a) the 90% is true and b) the 90% reduces over time, you can’t get there with boosters because part of it goes away every month. And who cares? You do…because you like masks and vaccine passports….if you use natural immunity you want to get there as fast as possible while immunity is high which means the masks are useless except to make people feel better. Unless you are going to force everyone to get vaxxed repeatedly what you are advocating for makes no sense.

the offices are in a hopeless dilemma in blue states. They can’t reopen while there’s a mask mandate and people are urged to social distance: the masks from the prior article are already a drag on people returning to employment, white collar workers who can work from home won’t tolerate it, the air circulation and density in most buildings are poor, and while you have mask mandates you’ve given everyone a signal it’s not safe yet. Most employees in big companies have been told they’ll need to vaxx and despite a high uptick among white collar workers in blue areas (in blue areas they aren’t the problem) most offices are still shuttered or on restricted capacity. Then there’s testing and quarantine:classrooms are still getting disrupted even in red states due to exposures and what do you do then if someone in an office becomes exposed. The entire point of an office environment is collaboration and socialization which isn’t possible if you are still social distancing. The big company hrs are pulling their hair over this right now.