Vaccine

Errr...I thought you were a math guy? Are you disputing that the Delta has a higher viral load than Prime?

Isn't the model very simple....Viral load you are exposed to - that protected by the mask> the minimum amount of exposure required to get COVID ----> you have COVID

If the viral load is higher but the masks don't improve in quality, you get more people sick.

Really really really basic stuff here. It also explains what's happening in real world if you assume arguendo, as you said you believed, masks did it in Asia. There would have to be an explanation as to why then it worked then and why it isn't working now. So while a cloth mask may have been adequate in some circumstances before, now not so much.

Again, really really really basic stuff, particularly for a math guy. But it is one thing I've noticed about the higher mathematics types...the further they go down the rabbit hole of higher mathematical principles, the less an appreciation the basics meant to them. Whenever I'm dealing with a new BA type, I remember having to constantly tell them to not get lost in the weeds of their own brilliance and to refocus them on the basics.
You do realize that you are trying to tell me how to interpret a parameter in a 2 variable differential equation?

Ok. Go back to telling me how easy the math is...
 
You do realize that you are trying to tell me how to interpret a parameter in a 2 variable differential equation?

Ok. Go back to telling me how easy the math is...
PM me your address dad and I'll mail you one, just for you. A great xmas gift, ehh?

 
You do realize that you are trying to tell me how to interpret a parameter in a 2 variable differential equation?

Ok. Go back to telling me how easy the math is...

Again, you made my point (painfully obviously this time): forest and trees.
 
Again, you made my point (painfully obviously this time): forest and trees.
Your point? Both points, actually.

You believe I am off in my own little theoretical world with no connection to reality.

I believe you're pretending to understand things about which you have utterly no clue.

I'm ok with that. It's a pretty good description.
 
Your point? Both points, actually.

You believe I am off in my own little theoretical world with no connection to reality.

I believe you're pretending to understand things about which you have utterly no clue.

I'm ok with that. It's a pretty good description.
Fair summation of our respective beliefs. I do note, however, that back in law school I dated someone (quiet seriously) who was a student at the div school. Though my majors were Soviet studies and Econ, In undergrad I spent quite a few courses taking comparative religion classes. I spent many a Friday night at the div school in the lounge having riveting discussions with people of various religions but the traditional Christians were the most interesting, particularly since I knew the history of the early church and the early gospels backwards and forwards and could dissect their arguments fairly easily. Our conversations bore a striking resemblance to our conversations…eerily so. My favorite personally was the Mormon plates discussion one blizzard evening. The explanation I always got for why I was wrong is “you don’t understand”. Again, whether it be Afghanistan or 2008 or covid, the experts, for a variety of reasons, have an amazing ability to miss the forest through the trees.
 
Fair summation of our respective beliefs. I do note, however, that back in law school I dated someone (quiet seriously) who was a student at the div school. Though my majors were Soviet studies and Econ, In undergrad I spent quite a few courses taking comparative religion classes. I spent many a Friday night at the div school in the lounge having riveting discussions with people of various religions but the traditional Christians were the most interesting, particularly since I knew the history of the early church and the early gospels backwards and forwards and could dissect their arguments fairly easily. Our conversations bore a striking resemblance to our conversations…eerily so. My favorite personally was the Mormon plates discussion one blizzard evening. The explanation I always got for why I was wrong is “you don’t understand”. Again, whether it be Afghanistan or 2008 or covid, the experts, for a variety of reasons, have an amazing ability to miss the forest through the trees.

 
My favorite personally was the Mormon plates discussion one blizzard evening. The explanation I always got for why I was wrong is “you don’t understand”.
Have you heard of the "burning of the bosom?" When this is all over Grace, I would love to have coffee with you and my wife. Great stuff from a great mind :)
 
Lets start with this.

With 72 million kids and only 350 deaths....you tell us why you think this group should mask up.

What risk do they have that would justify wearing masks?

I don't necessarily think they should.

But in order to make an argument for masks in my local community/school district, I'd like to be able to balance the harms.

So on one hand, we have a very, very small percentage of kids that have died from COVID. So obviously very, very limited benefit to wearing masks, but I'm sure you'll concede nonetheless that there is some very, very small benefit.

What do we have to balance that against? What is the harm that is caused to kids by having them wear masks? That's what I'm asking.

Usually, when we talk about these things at school board meetings or community chat groups, the anti-mask people just keep coming back to personal freedom. They can't cite to any cognizable, harmful effects from wearing masks. So I stupidly came to a soccer forum to ask if someone could cite to anything. In my defense, these threads comprise thousands of posts, some of which are interesting evaluations of legitimate studies, so I assumed that somewhere down the line, someone could identify whether any kids had suffered harmful effects (illness, death, hospitalization, whatever.)
 
According to a large study conducted by the CDC, rates of COVID transmission are no higher in schools without a mask mandate than in schools with a requirement to wear a mask.

The study, which analyzed some 90,000 elementary students in 169 Georgia schools from November 16 to December 11, found that there was no statistically significant difference in schools that required students to wear masks compared to schools where masks were optional.
“The 21% lower incidence in schools that required mask use among students was not statistically significant compared with schools where mask use was optional,” the CDC said. “This finding might be attributed to higher effectiveness of masks among adults, who are at higher risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection but might also result from differences in mask-wearing behavior among students in schools with optional requirements.”
As New York magazine’s David Zweig noted, these findings, as well as other statistically insignificant preventive measures, “cast doubt on the impact of many of the most common mitigation measures in American schools.”

The CDC’s findings on masks and other preventive measures would not be particularly noteworthy or controversial outside the US. As New York magazine noted, many European nations have exempted students from mask mandates—including the UK, all of Scandinavia, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and even France and Italy—though with varying age cutoffs. The results have not been dire.

“Conspicuously, there’s no evidence of more outbreaks in schools in those countries relative to schools in the U.S., where the solid majority of kids wore masks for an entire academic year and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future,”
wrote Zweig. “These countries, along with the World Health Organization, whose child-masking guidance differs substantially from the CDC’s recommendations, have explicitly recognized that the decision to mask students carries with it potential academic and social harms for children and may lack a clear benefit.”
 
but I'm sure you'll concede nonetheless that there is some very, very small benefit.
Actually the CDC has a study and can't find a benefit. See above. They looked at schools that mandated masks vs those that didn't. There was no statistical difference.

This age group has zero risk.

To put another way, far more kids in this age group die from the FLU. And despite that we don't contact trace, don't try masks, don't socially distance them, etc.

And unfortunately most of those 350 kids that died? Almost every one had very serious health issues. The data doesn't break it down, but I lay money that most of those 350 kids were not even in school due to their health issues.

It is bad policy to look at the numbers above and think that something has to be done. It will not make any difference in that number. We have data not only here but world wide. Many other countries have tossed the masks in schools and they have found that nothing bad happened.

Why people don't look at the data out there is beyond belief.

We should be looking at the 72 million and 350 deaths and think....GREAT!!! This is one group we don't have to worry about AT ALL.

You ask what is the harm? The better and most relevant question is what is the benefit? And the data shows there won't be any benefit.
 
I don't necessarily think they should.

But in order to make an argument for masks in my local community/school district, I'd like to be able to balance the harms.

So on one hand, we have a very, very small percentage of kids that have died from COVID. So obviously very, very limited benefit to wearing masks, but I'm sure you'll concede nonetheless that there is some very, very small benefit.

What do we have to balance that against? What is the harm that is caused to kids by having them wear masks? That's what I'm asking.

Usually, when we talk about these things at school board meetings or community chat groups, the anti-mask people just keep coming back to personal freedom. They can't cite to any cognizable, harmful effects from wearing masks. So I stupidly came to a soccer forum to ask if someone could cite to anything. In my defense, these threads comprise thousands of posts, some of which are interesting evaluations of legitimate studies, so I assumed that somewhere down the line, someone could identify whether any kids had suffered harmful effects (illness, death, hospitalization, whatever.)
Here's a list of some costs, not comprehensive:

-Some kids are ADHD or Autistic sensitive. Some jurisdictions are allowing waivers for these kids, some are making it very difficult (like LA County), and some do not allow a waiver (LA County did not allow waivers for anyone last year).
-For the younger children, they learn in part through facial expressions. Remember all those articles about the importance of children with "face time" For the hearing impaired as well, viewing the face is critical.
-They are just uncomfortable for many people. If you dispute that, ask why Pelosi, Newsom, Fauci, and other politicians/health experts were caught cheating when the cameras weren't rolling.
-There is a communicative/societal value in seeing people's faces. We know for example movies and television programs and news programs filmed during the pandemic got waivers. If there wasn't any value to it, why aren't films/tv/news filmed during the pandemic filmed with masks on? It shouldn't make a difference, correct?
-There's the environmental damage from masks. The non-cloth ones take a long time to degrade. Remember when people were freaking out about plastic straws and plastic bags. Those masks are supposed to be single use. Even the N95s pre pandemic were supposed to be single use. The environmental damage is huge, and would be worse if people wore them correctly.

So let's not pretend that masks are a cost free solution. Granted, the cost is relatively lower than lockdowns. But a balance still has to be taken of the costs against the benefits. On the benefits end, Hound has articulated that there seems to be very little benefit for kids wearing masks in schools, plus we know we are out of step with the other western countries that don't require it. Given that, unless the pro mask side can demonstrate some beneficial evidence that outweighs the costs, they shouldn't be required in schools.

Now I'm not saying that masks should never be required anywhere. I supported pre vaccine the indoor masks mandates. But we need to have a discussion about better masking and where it should be required (airplanes yes, schools absolutely not. supermarkets it depends what approach we need to the pandemic and if believe Gottlieb or the UK)
 
I don't necessarily think they should.

But in order to make an argument for masks in my local community/school district, I'd like to be able to balance the harms.

So on one hand, we have a very, very small percentage of kids that have died from COVID. So obviously very, very limited benefit to wearing masks, but I'm sure you'll concede nonetheless that there is some very, very small benefit.

What do we have to balance that against? What is the harm that is caused to kids by having them wear masks? That's what I'm asking.

Usually, when we talk about these things at school board meetings or community chat groups, the anti-mask people just keep coming back to personal freedom. They can't cite to any cognizable, harmful effects from wearing masks. So I stupidly came to a soccer forum to ask if someone could cite to anything. In my defense, these threads comprise thousands of posts, some of which are interesting evaluations of legitimate studies, so I assumed that somewhere down the line, someone could identify whether any kids had suffered harmful effects (illness, death, hospitalization, whatever.)
I am not aware of any studies demonstrating that masks cause harm to anyone.

There was one study that tried to measure CO2 buildup and lack of oxygen due to rebreathing the air between the mask and the face. That study has been withdrawn.
 
I am not aware of any studies demonstrating that masks cause harm to anyone.

There was one study that tried to measure CO2 buildup and lack of oxygen due to rebreathing the air between the mask and the face. That study has been withdrawn.

Yes there are incidents like this that happen when you try to mask people exercising. I myself, remember, collapsed servicing my car while I had a fever in the hot sun after a long day having to wait for it outside in the heat. Not a typical response but it represents the limits of masking in extreme circumstances

 
I am not aware of any studies demonstrating that masks cause harm to anyone.

There was one study that tried to measure CO2 buildup and lack of oxygen due to rebreathing the air between the mask and the face. That study has been withdrawn.

Just a point for reference -- exhaled air is what keeps people alive in CPR.
 
Yes there are incidents like this that happen when you try to mask people exercising. I myself, remember, collapsed servicing my car while I had a fever in the hot sun after a long day having to wait for it outside in the heat. Not a typical response but it represents the limits of masking in extreme circumstances


Submit to Southern California Journal of Anecdotes.
 
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