Vaccine

dad4 said:
Your understanding of the science on vaccinated transmission is in error. And you are still in error, even if you put it in all caps.

Reread whichever article you believe shows vax transmission is equal to unvax. Most likely, it tells you that peak viral load is the same, which it is.

But the duration is different, and the probability of infection is different. The total effect is not the same at all. Unvax end up being more transmissive.
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Here is what I will tell you, don't worship at the alter of evolving science. What was known 6-8 months ago is no longer true. What we knew last week isn't neccessarily still the case. I don't have to remind you how positive sciency people were about the slam dunk effectiveness of vaccines and how they were going to end transmission and provide immunity. Obviousy that idea has eroded/changed over time.

We have a better picture of what our vaccines provide now. An infected vaccinated person can transmit disease just as effectively as an unvaccinated person. yes, it's true we "think" viral loads diminish faster in vaccinated people, win for the vaccine, maybe. We also think that it's possible the viability of the virus that is cultivated from an infected vaccinated person is very low...Which is also good news if in fact it's true. Plenty of if and maybe, and might, and should going on right now. What we do know for maybe sure is that Omicron is pretty sneaky but less severe. New data coming out daily, some of it contradictory. Mabye the pharma companies need to synch their messaging a bit better. And cross your fingers for a real FDA approved vaccine, maybe, in the near future.
 
Grace T. said:
The US hospital system hasn't collapsed in prior waves...it hasn't in most western countries. The biggest obstacle as the CDC recognized is that we are requiring the quarantine of positive people and they seem to be struggling to define what that end date should be (asymptomatic/no fever/symptomatic but 5 days)...it's going to be staffing as people call in sick, and the demand by idiots testing positive and then rushing off to the ER (because doctors don't want to see symptomatic people). It's a policy problem.

The long slow wave has trade offs. 1) the costs (you'll have to do something more than masks because if omicron really is R10 and the vaccine failure rate for infection really is 80%, vaccines+ poor use of masks is not going to get, 2) dragging out the time period those costs are imposed (e.g. children have already had a year of school taken away...gonna take away another 2-3 months?), 3) possibly creating later waves by leaving some dry tinder susceptible and 4) having a longer disruption not just of health care but all businesses and production because instead of everyone getting it and things collapsing for 2-3 weeks, they collapse over 3 months. Given the lower severity of the omicron, the cost isn't warranted....time to let her rip....those people like you that insist on continued interventions are just selfishly extending the emergency.
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In omicron Europe, there isn't an increased danger of hospital collapse. Most people counted as hospitalized are with omicron instead of because omicron. the number has to rise as the incidence rises in the population
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1476580018390134787

politiken.dk

»Det er misvisende. Det er jo ikke de tal, vi skal have ud i medierne«: Der er markant færre coronaindlagte, end SSI's tal viser

Forskellen mellem SSI’s indlæggelsestal og hospitalernes tal vokser. SSI kritiseres for at inkludere folk med brækkede arme, psykiatriske patienter og indlagte på fødeafsnit.
politiken.dk politiken.dk
 
dad4 said:
Certainly nowhere near R=1.

But there is a big difference between R=2 and R=6. 2 leads to a long slow wave of cases, fizzling out at 50%. 6 leads to a sudden crunch that overwhelms your hospital system and catches almost everyone.

I don't have an opinion on which is the better description. You could look to very high vax areas to get a guess.

Kind of moot. Even if the fully vaccinated transmission rate were known, we don't have a fully vaccinated population.
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The hospital narrative has always been overplayed. Think back to the early days of no vaccines, ventilators, NYC, old people, ships and field hospitals and conference centers with open beds. Are there issues with staffing right now..yep. Nurses are in fact leaving, in large numbers. Many reasons: mandates, better paying jobs, etc. And by the way, they've always skirted the 14 day quarantine rule. No symptoms, back to work. Has been this way since the beginning. Has it been stressfull, yep, many different reasons why. But the idea that we were ever on the verge of a national collapse is silly.
 
Grace T. said:
The US hospital system hasn't collapsed in prior waves...it hasn't in most western countries. The biggest obstacle as the CDC recognized is that we are requiring the quarantine of positive people and they seem to be struggling to define what that end date should be (asymptomatic/no fever/symptomatic but 5 days)...it's going to be staffing as people call in sick, and the demand by idiots testing positive and then rushing off to the ER (because doctors don't want to see symptomatic people). It's a policy problem.

The long slow wave has trade offs. 1) the costs (you'll have to do something more than masks because if omicron really is R10 and the vaccine failure rate for infection really is 80%, vaccines+ poor use of masks is not going to get, 2) dragging out the time period those costs are imposed (e.g. children have already had a year of school taken away...gonna take away another 2-3 months?), 3) possibly creating later waves by leaving some dry tinder susceptible and 4) having a longer disruption not just of health care but all businesses and production because instead of everyone getting it and things collapsing for 2-3 weeks, they collapse over 3 months. Given the lower severity of the omicron, the cost isn't warranted....time to let her rip....those people like you that insist on continued interventions are just selfishly extending the emergency.
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The hospital collapse theory is a joke and has been for over a year.
 
dad4 said:
Certainly nowhere near R=1.

But there is a big difference between R=2 and R=6. 2 leads to a long slow wave of cases, fizzling out at 50%. 6 leads to a sudden crunch that overwhelms your hospital system and catches almost everyone.

I don't have an opinion on which is the better description. You could look to very high vax areas to get a guess.

Kind of moot. Even if the fully vaccinated transmission rate were known, we don't have a fully vaccinated population.
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Whats moot are speculative R values. Covid is highly contagious among the vaccinated. To use my NHL example...100% vaccinated yet just at one point a week or so ago 1 in 5 players had covid. They continue to add dozens of players everday. Its not inconceivable that more than half will get Covid.
 
watfly said:
Whats moot are speculative R values. Covid is highly contagious among the vaccinated. To use my NHL example...100% vaccinated yet just at one point a week or so ago 1 in 5 players had covid. They continue to add dozens of players everday. Its not inconceivable that more than half will get Covid.
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But…but….
 
Thank you Governor Newsome. This is great news for all kids. We can;t kick out 34,000 kids just because they dont want to take a jab. Thank thank you sir. Newsome for President? “We need to fine-tune all this, this is iterative. … We want to keep the kids in school. … We don’t want to see 34,000 kids sent home, quite the contrary. And that’s why I’d say you have to accommodate. And I have all the confidence in the world the school board will work to accommodate.”

And today, the interim LAUSD superintendent proposed that enforcement of the mandate be delayed from January to the start of the next school year in fall 2022.

The governor also stressed that his first-in-the-nation student COVID-19 vaccine mandate — which isn’t set to go into effect until next year at the earliest and is more lenient than some district mandates — “includes personal exemptions, not just religious and/or medical exemptions, so there’s plenty of latitude for families to make decisions.”
 
Ellejustus said:
Thank you Governor Newsome. This is great news for all kids. We can;t kick out 34,000 kids just because they dont want to take a jab. Thank thank you sir. Newsome for President? “We need to fine-tune all this, this is iterative. … We want to keep the kids in school. … We don’t want to see 34,000 kids sent home, quite the contrary. And that’s why I’d say you have to accommodate. And I have all the confidence in the world the school board will work to accommodate.”

And today, the interim LAUSD superintendent proposed that enforcement of the mandate be delayed from January to the start of the next school year in fall 2022.

The governor also stressed that his first-in-the-nation student COVID-19 vaccine mandate — which isn’t set to go into effect until next year at the earliest and is more lenient than some district mandates — “includes personal exemptions, not just religious and/or medical exemptions, so there’s plenty of latitude for families to make decisions.”
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Patrick Bateman !
 
dad4 said:
In Colin Powell's case, it killed him.

Without all the unvaccinated people keeping transmission high, the US would not have had a Delta surge. That Delta surge is what killed Powell.
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zero covid was never an option. That's the part you don't want to come to terms with. Colin Powell, and others, are high risk. Something was going to eventually cause his death. Is your rationale that 100% vaccination and eradication would have averted a mutation?

Covid in this instant was a contributor, in other years another respiratory virus would have been the culprit.
 
dad4 said:
Without all the unvaccinated people keeping transmission high, the US would not have had a Delta surge.
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Interesting.

So why was it present in highly vaxxed countries and areas of countries with high vax rates?

Also as we saw during delta the vax didn't stop the spread amongst the vaxxed themselves. It didn't work too well. Which is why they started saying boosters.

The reason the delta wave came is because their was a new variant that spread ALL around the world. It didn't care who was vaxxed or not.

Powell was in the hospital due to his cancer. The docs and staff were vaxxed. I believe visitors had to be vaxxed and/or masked. And despite that he died with the virus. He was on the way out either way.
 
Desert Hound said:
Interesting.

So why was it present in highly vaxxed countries and areas of countries with high vax rates?

Also as we saw during delta the vax didn't stop the spread amongst the vaxxed themselves. It didn't work too well. Which is why they started saying boosters.

The reason the delta wave came is because their was a new variant that spread ALL around the world. It didn't care who was vaxxed or not.

Powell was in the hospital due to his cancer. The docs and staff were vaxxed. I believe visitors had to be vaxxed and/or masked. And despite that he died with the virus. He was on the way out either way.
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Ireland, Singapore, and South Korea all had Delta outbreaks despite high vaccination rates and masks. Vaccination might have limited the waves but they all got them. Vermont and Iceland despite high vaccination rate.

And against the omicron none of it helping, not vaxx passports, not mandates, not high vaccination, not masks....Los Angeles, New York, Seattle, Denmark, Germany and even San Francisco. The only countries in western Europe that seem to be performing relatively well against their neighbors are Norway (provided their current wave holds in decline), Sweden, and Austria (which doesn't appear to have much omicron due to its travel ban and lockdown with the unvaccinated still in lockdown for another month at least). And those US locations are only 1/3 omicron....rest is Delta still being pushed out.
 
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