The Inevitable New The Inevitable Trump Mocking Thread

"Moral hazard" was minimal at most, temporary and did little to change landscape.

Causation of single day market moves are not hard to prove. You can line the info publication up with the moves in, you know, real time.

The idea that 5 years of QE "suddenly" tanks a market 15 minutes after China announces retalitory tariffs list is just stupid, end stop. You can dance on the head of all the pins you want, but it doesn't make that claim fit for anyone but a pin-head.

But here, how's about looking at some, you know, data...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-are-reacting-to-u-s-china-trade-tariff-plans

The only reason Izzy posts that QE meme is to see the reactions.

On second thought, he might actually be dumb enough to believe it.
 
It further makes the point that in a post QE world equities are inflated and investors are trying to get them back to a point where they are closer to book value and thus less risky. If you're a CBOE trader than volatility is where you can make a lot of money with little risk. Derivatives traders also tend to bring the market back to equilibrium sooner than later.
 
I love the way they explain shit to each other.
Its like a leftist game of verbal grab ass.
You can just sit back and let em make up all the questions and answers they want to hear.
Fries tends to make my point for me without knowing it. Not unusual for these people. Husker is like a little kid on the fringe acting like he totally understands what is going on. He's like a cheerleader with pom poms.
 
Fries tends to make my point for me without knowing it. Not unusual for these people. Husker is like a little kid on the fringe acting like he totally understands what is going on. He's like a cheerleader with pom poms.
I love when you co-op my material as if you are being original, hilarious. "Gee where did I see that before?"
 
Read your article and youʻll see why sudden temporary drops are due to long inflated equities, via 5 years of QE, being driven down and re-purchased nearer to book values to compete with bonds and their rising interest rates. Bonds looking to be a safer long term bet. Hence your 60% of portfolio cash holdings. A sudden reaction to the announcement but not the singular most important reason for the 5 or 6 temp pull backs in the indexes. Markets are irrational. But then you already knew that.

It's fairly simple to look at when QE was started. When it was ended. When the Fed started talking about increasing rates (ie. unwinding. ie. no more QE.) When fed started raising rates. Each rate increase. Each time they spoke of rasing rates. When tax cut was signed. When stop gap and omnibus were signed. When tariffs were mentioned. When tariffs were mentioned again. And chart stock market moves. I'm fairly certain you will find an unatural lag from the end of QE or even from the start of Fed rate increase to the last 5 or 6 market moves. On the other hand, I think you will find they plot out fairly close to major tariff announcements. Could be massive coincidence. I'm gonna bet "not."
 
Hey, good news. They finalized the Trump U. settlement today. Racist Sterno-Jo might be getting his double-wide deposit back! Congrats Racist Stern-Jo!
 
Hey, good news. They finalized the Trump U. settlement today. Racist Sterno-Jo might be getting his double-wide deposit back! Congrats Racist Stern-Jo!
Lil joe wouldn't join the settlement, he's waiting for Trump U to reopen it's doors . . . he's gotten so much from the experience.
 
It's fairly simple to look at when QE was started. When it was ended. When the Fed started talking about increasing rates (ie. unwinding. ie. no more QE.) When fed started raising rates. Each rate increase. Each time they spoke of rasing rates. When tax cut was signed. When stop gap and omnibus were signed. When tariffs were mentioned. When tariffs were mentioned again. And chart stock market moves. I'm fairly certain you will find an unatural lag from the end of QE or even from the start of Fed rate increase to the last 5 or 6 market moves. On the other hand, I think you will find they plot out fairly close to major tariff announcements. Could be massive coincidence. I'm gonna bet "not."
Me too given the aforementioned underlying conditions generated by an increase in national debt of 9 trillion dollars (4 trillion of QE) over 8 years.
 
I've seen you try to go rogue, you are better off co-opting others material.
Yes, especially because I read and understand what I post. You should back up your allegations of my rogue-ness. I usually get accused of such independence after reading your links to you so you can understand why your link actually contradicts your point of view.
 
It further makes the point that in a post QE world equities are inflated and investors are trying to get them back to a point where they are closer to book value and thus less risky. If you're a CBOE trader than volatility is where you can make a lot of money with little risk. Derivatives traders also tend to bring the market back to equilibrium sooner than later.

Again, however, the timing of end of QE versus Trump/Xi tariff statements make suggestiong that market moves are due to "no QE4" absurd. There has been "no QE4" for months and months now. No reasonable investor has been expecting/hoping for more QE since many fed meetings ago. It's just silly to try to suggest a close causality.

Fed called end to QE in Sept 2017. It had made pretty clear signals before that it was done. 2017 saw 3 rate increases. 2018 should see 3 maybe even 4. None of this news. It started 6-12 months ago. That is a heckuva lag for one-day moves.

When the Fed raised rates last Dec- around same time tax plan was being passed, market continued their increase:
"In its justification for Wednesday’s rate increase, which was widely expected by financial markets, the Fed’s policy-setting committee cited “solid” economic growth and job gains.
U.S. stocks extended gains after the release of the policy statement before ending mixed, while Treasury yields dropped. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies."

But when Trump, then XI, then Trump again talked tariffs, markets fell. only to rebound when each leader walked confrontational language back.
 


Trump wins again: China announces ‘significantly lower’ tariffs on car imports, will address IP protection


PresidentXiXi Jinping promised Tuesday to cut China’s auto tariffs and improve intellectual property protection in possible concessions aimed at defusing a worsening dispute with Washington over trade and technology that investors worry could set back the global economic recovery.

Speaking at a business conference, Xi made no direct mention of his American counterpart, Donald Trump, or the dispute. He promised progress on areas that are U.S. priorities including opening China’s banking industry and boosting imports but didn’t address key irritants for Washington such as a requirement for foreign companies to work through joint ventures that require them to give technology to potential local competitors.

Private sector analysts saw Xi’s speech as an overture to help end the biggest trade dispute since World War II. It has fueled fears the global economic recovery might be set back if other governments are prompted to raise their own import barriers.
 


Trump wins again: China announces ‘significantly lower’ tariffs on car imports, will address IP protection


PresidentXiXi Jinping promised Tuesday to cut China’s auto tariffs and improve intellectual property protection in possible concessions aimed at defusing a worsening dispute with Washington over trade and technology that investors worry could set back the global economic recovery.

Speaking at a business conference, Xi made no direct mention of his American counterpart, Donald Trump, or the dispute. He promised progress on areas that are U.S. priorities including opening China’s banking industry and boosting imports but didn’t address key irritants for Washington such as a requirement for foreign companies to work through joint ventures that require them to give technology to potential local competitors.

Private sector analysts saw Xi’s speech as an overture to help end the biggest trade dispute since World War II. It has fueled fears the global economic recovery might be set back if other governments are prompted to raise their own import barriers.
America wins again.
#MAGA
 
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