Quarantine only the elderly?
The nursing homes are already isolating as well as they can. They’ve been on a near total lockdown for weeks now. It is literally a life or death issue for them. If there is anything that can be done to slow the infection, they are already doing it.
But, quarantines leak. Nurses have to come to work, patients have doctor’s visits, food and supplies need to be delivered. The deaths you see now in nursing homes are from that leakage. The rate is somewhat low, because the community infection rate is also somewhat low.
Now imaging we open up everything except nursing homes. The community infection rate would skyrocket, as you know. And, because quarantines leak, the nursing home infection rate would also skyrocket. You’d still get the deaths.
So let us kill off millions of small biz instead?
Let us put millions into bankruptcy?
Because what we are doing now is exactly that.
Social distancing is not stopping the spread of the virus. The virus is not going to magically go away. The idea behind social distancing was to "bend the curve", not eradicate the virus. A vaccine is 18 months away if we are lucky. They may never have a good vaccine. Who knows.
I think many have the false assumption that social distancing somehow gets the virus to go away. It is not.
So what does the quarantine do and not do?
- it doesn't stop the spread of the virus
- it simply slows down the spread.
- it does nothing to protect the people who are not at risk
- the people still at risk are still getting the virus
- we are putting millions of biz and people out of work.
- many of those jobs are not coming back
Personally I just shut down one of my businesses. It is not coming back. Those employees are not getting their jobs back. Now multiply that across the country.
Tax revenue is crashing. That tax revenue funds countless things at the local, state and fed level. State and local pensions? Schools, etc etc. What will many of these gov entities want to do? Raise taxes to attempt to cover their expenses. Probably not a good time to put more financial burdens on individuals and biz
Opening up restaurants at 25% or even 50% capacity will not work for most restaurants. Margins are thin in that industry and you need to be running at full capacity for most to make it. So lets look at them for example.
- short term, not all staff is working since 25-50% capacity means you don't need everyone.
- less money or no money for those employees with others getting laid off.
- the restaurants don't require as much food, booze, beverages.
- that then pushes the problem down the entire supply chain.
- those businesses in the supply chain have to cut down biz and cut staff as a result of reduced demand.
Take the above and now apply that to a variety of different biz/industry.
Then consider the debt these various individuals and businesses have. When they cannot pay, that then affects the companies, etc who hold the debt. Many of those will go under and those employees are out of work.
The government doesn't have enough money to bail out all industry and give people cash to sit at home.
The implications of what we are doing to our economy and how it affects everyone is staggering.
It is madness to kill the economy in such a manner. To wipe out biz, to wipe out the life savings of individuals, etc.
Find the solution to deal with the at risk population vs a one size fits all option that devastates millions of biz and 10s of millions of individuals.
Further.
We lose 650K a year to heart disease
600k to cancer.
We don't shut down the entire economy as a result of the above. We deal with it and move on. We may never get a vaccine for covid and we certainly cannot wait around 18 months hoping that in that window of time something pops up vaccine wise. We know who is at risk and who isnt. The focus should be on how to minimize the risk for those at risk vs devastating the lives of most in the US who have a very very low risk factor.