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[kickingandscreaming]

Some states that opened before us (d colorado) or countries with no masks (norway Denmark finland) have done better but I suspect not by govt policy but by quirks of luck location and weather.

With the uncertainty around transmission, I am surprised that weather and the associated need to be inside a heated/AC'ed home, doesn't get more consideration. Along with distancing and masks, getting outside seems like a very good idea.

 

[Desert Hound]

I also noted how ICU bed availability is virtually flat from where it was on 5/2 (3922) to where it is on 7/6 (3,925).

keepermom keeps talking about running out of icus. And yet looking at the Cal stats, availability has been flat now for some time.

 

[Desert Hound]

Do you have a link to a study or report that shows this -- genuinely would be interested to read up on something that claims what CFR defines an epidemic and where the CFR is currently falling.

CDC actually has a stat on what level above or below determines if a disease is a pandemic. I was looking at it the other day. Did not save the link. If you dig around I am sure you can find it though.

 

[Desert Hound]

You have not presented one clear number or anything to back your outlandish claim of it fizzling out

You didn't bother to look at the charts regarding Sweden. If you do, you will see it is fizzling out.

 

[messy]

You didn't bother to look at the charts regarding Sweden. If you do, you will see it is fizzling out.

Sweden Has Become the World’s Cautionary Tale
Its decision to carry on in the face of the pandemic has yielded a surge of deaths without sparing its economy from damage — a red flag as the United States and Britain move to lift lockdowns.

 

[Grace T.]

Sweden Has Become the World’s Cautionary Tale
Its decision to carry on in the face of the pandemic has yielded a surge of deaths without sparing its economy from damage — a red flag as the United States and Britain move to lift lockdowns.

And there we have it. If even the UK isn't safe to open (after their late lockdown and horrible curve), the logic of the panic-drive school is basically perpetual lockdown until a vaccine. No youth sports, no schools until a vaccine (and also, where we started this, no informal get togethers with 'safe' friends). Stay locked down, stay safe.

Here's a little thought exercise. We know the flu is more dangerous to the under 12 set. Yet the under 12 set is being asked to make enormous sacrifice for those that are older, in particular those that are near the end of life. So, every flu season, shouldn't we be requiring masks of everyone as well? Yes, we know we have a vaccine and kids die from it, but if masks are a good idea to save the old, shouldn't we also wear masks to save the young, if it is such a small burden on everyone? If not why are we all asking the young to sacrifice now, if we aren't prepared to sacrifice for them later?

 

[Ellejustus]

And there we have it. If even the UK isn't safe to open (after their late lockdown and horrible curve), the logic of the panic-drive school is basically perpetual lockdown until a vaccine. No youth sports, no schools until a vaccine (and also, where we started this, no informal get togethers with 'safe' friends). Stay locked down, stay safe.

Here's a little thought exercise. We know the flu is more dangerous to the under 12 set. Yet the under 12 set is being asked to make enormous sacrifice for those that are older, in particular those that are near the end of life. So, every flu season, shouldn't we be requiring masks of everyone as well? Yes, we know we have a vaccine and kids die from it, but if masks are a good idea to save the old, shouldn't we also wear masks to save the young, if it is such a small burden on everyone? If not why are we all asking the young to sacrifice now, if we aren't prepared to sacrifice for them later?

I dont know about all you older folks older than 50, but my most cherish and valuable times in my life was my youth. Some are stealing the best times for youths all because. That is sick!!!

 

[MSK357]

And there we have it. If even the UK isn't safe to open (after their late lockdown and horrible curve), the logic of the panic-drive school is basically perpetual lockdown until a vaccine. No youth sports, no schools until a vaccine (and also, where we started this, no informal get togethers with 'safe' friends). Stay locked down, stay safe.

Here's a little thought exercise. We know the flu is more dangerous to the under 12 set. Yet the under 12 set is being asked to make enormous sacrifice for those that are older, in particular those that are near the end of life. So, every flu season, shouldn't we be requiring masks of everyone as well? Yes, we know we have a vaccine and kids die from it, but if masks are a good idea to save the old, shouldn't we also wear masks to save the young, if it is such a small burden on everyone? If not why are we all asking the young to sacrifice now, if we aren't prepared to sacrifice for them later?

Because its the old that are making the rules.

 

[Keepermom2]

Look at the chart. I did the research for you. The wave in Sweden has crested,both in death and new cases. I'm not saying the Swedish strategy was the right one. But the waves (even in much maligned Sweden) do eventually expire. It's math.

You can't look at deaths in Sweden as an indicator because deaths start to decline the younger the people are that gets it just as has been shown here. You also can't look at cases just from testing because there are so many variables that could change the picture.

 

[Desert Hound]

You can't look at deaths in Sweden as an indicator because deaths start to decline the younger the people are that gets it just as has been shown here.

You seem to be arguing that early on the young in Sweden were not exposed to the virus, and now they are? And relatedly you seem to be saying it was the old early on getting the virus, and now for some reason they aren't?

That seems rather unlikely.

Far more likely as has been said before is that the virus came in strong and is now starting to fizzle out. They are basically done with it it seems.

 

[Copa9]

I have a different perspective. It's very hard for me to follow advise of so called "experts" when they change their advise every day. I have no problem wearing a mask and with having pre-teen kids sitting at home, but good luck with having teens locked up. Long term mental result of this will be devastating.

The professionals have changed their advice, thank goodness! No one should keep their head in the sand especially the professionals. This is a new virus, it is not the "usual" seasonal flu. I want the professionals to learn as much as possible about covid and make adjustments. This is not forever, good therapeutics are happening, better treatment and hopefully a vaccine next year.

 

[Copa9]

And there we have it. If even the UK isn't safe to open (after their late lockdown and horrible curve), the logic of the panic-drive school is basically perpetual lockdown until a vaccine. No youth sports, no schools until a vaccine (and also, where we started this, no informal get togethers with 'safe' friends). Stay locked down, stay safe.

Here's a little thought exercise. We know the flu is more dangerous to the under 12 set. Yet the under 12 set is being asked to make enormous sacrifice for those that are older, in particular those that are near the end of life. So, every flu season, shouldn't we be requiring masks of everyone as well? Yes, we know we have a vaccine and kids die from it, but if masks are a good idea to save the old, shouldn't we also wear masks to save the young, if it is such a small burden on everyone? If not why are we all asking the young to sacrifice now, if we aren't prepared to sacrifice for them later?

Maybe, just maybe, every adult should get a seasonal flu shot! That is the best way to protect the young who should also get a flu shot!

 

[Grace T.]

The professionals have changed their advice, thank goodness! No one should keep their head in the sand especially the professionals. This is a new virus, it is not the "usual" seasonal flu. I want the professionals to learn as much as possible about covid and make adjustments. This is not forever, good therapeutics are happening, better treatment and hopefully a vaccine next year.

Err...Fauci admitted he basically lied about the masks and we've known about asymptomatic transmissions since the Diamond Princess. And the "experts" are now talking about mask usage "for years"

'We'll be living with masks for years': COVID-19 through the eyes of a pandemic expert

Since the summer of 2019, I've been speaking with one of the world's leading pandemic experts about what a global outbreak could look like. Now, as the world enters a grim new phase, he says we're in a whole new ball game.

www.cnet.com

 

[Copa9]

Unfortunately, a very good friend lost their son to suicide during the lockdown. Whether the lockdown impacted his actions, we will likely never know.
I don't know anyone that's a few degrees removed from me that has died of Covid, but I do know a couple other teens in the community that have committed suicide during Covid. Devastating regardless of the cause.

Horrible tragedy. I know three teens who committed suicide last fall in our district. One a neighbor. Please, please if you suspect your child has a mental illness, seek help either through your school district or the county or a private source. Even young children resort to suicide.

 

[Grace T.]

Maybe, just maybe, every adult should get a seasonal flu shot! That is the best way to protect the young who should also get a flu shot!

The flu shot isn't very good. Some years it's a pretty big bust. The COVID vaccine might not be very efficient (some experts are saying you may need to get a booster every 3 months). And if you think the government isn't going to mandate it (at least for govt employees, students, grant recipients and contractors, and large corps) or at a minimum work it so it's excluded from insurance if you don't get it, I have news for you. A rushed vaccine being injected into children is going to make for a very very ugly fight (full disclaimer: my kids going to get it, even though he might have had it).

 

[Copa9]

Err...Fauci admitted he basically lied about the masks and we've known about asymptomatic transmissions since the Diamond Princess. And the "experts" are now talking about mask usage "for years"

'We'll be living with masks for years': COVID-19 through the eyes of a pandemic expert

Since the summer of 2019, I've been speaking with one of the world's leading pandemic experts about what a global outbreak could look like. Now, as the world enters a grim new phase, he says we're in a whole new ball game.

www.cnet.com

Like I said before, if you have half a brain you figured this out in the beginning.

 

[Keepermom2]

You didn't bother to look at the charts regarding Sweden. If you do, you will see it is fizzling out.

I talked about ICU beds a couple of weeks ago noting that if something didn't change, we are going to have a problem. They started dealing with ICU bed capacity by increasing it through deferral of surgeries etc. and what appears to be converting regular hospital beds to ICU beds. You can tell this by looking at the availability chart. When it says they have an increase in ICU patients of 10 yet there was an increase in capacity in one day of about 30, it is pretty obvious. I do have a contact at a facility that confirmed that is what is being done.

Once I saw they were doing that, I started talking and looking ONLY at overall hospitalizations. I stated 2 weeks ago if they do nothing it appears we have a problem with capacity. Guess what, they did something last Wednesday or Thursday and most likely because they saw the same hospitalization capacity concerns and started discussing enforcement of wearing masks. They closed bars, locked down beaches for the weekend, and closed indoor dining. I believe we will see some benefit from that in about 14 to 21 days. Hopefully it is enough to not require further lock downs. I am still seeing people not wearing masks and stores not enforcing. I did see a hopeful sign yesterday with the lowest 7 day calculation of increase change or 27% that I have seen (when calculating numbers based on days with 100% facilities reporting) in the last couple of weeks. All of the days I calculated 7 day change were above 30%. I am hoping that the same holds true for today and tomorrow and going forward.

 

[Keepermom2]

You seem to be arguing that early on the young in Sweden were not exposed to the virus, and now they are? And relatedly you seem to be saying it was the old early on getting the virus, and now for some reason they aren't?

That seems rather unlikely.

Far more likely as has been said before is that the virus came in strong and is now starting to fizzle out. They are basically done with it it seems.

Try reading the article before commenting.

 

[Copa9]

The flu shot isn't very good. Some years it's a pretty big bust. The COVID vaccine might not be very efficient (some experts are saying you may need to get a booster every 3 months). And if you think the government isn't going to mandate it (at least for govt employees, students, grant recipients and contractors, and large corps) or at a minimum work it so it's excluded from insurance if you don't get it, I have news for you. A rushed vaccine being injected into children is going to make for a very very ugly fight (full disclaimer: my kids going to get it, even though he might have had it).

The majority of years the flu vaccine is at least 50% - 70% effective and lessons your chance of dying if you do get the flu. I'm sorry, if you can afford to play soccer, go to movies, go out to eat, then you can pay for a flu shot if your insurance doesn't cover it. It's a matter of priorities. As someone else put correctly, health care workers, law enforcement, people with compromised immune systems, the elderly, will probably get the vaccine before children. Most flu shots are only good for about three months, so nothing new there.

 

[Keepermom2]

You seem to be arguing that early on the young in Sweden were not exposed to the virus, and now they are? And relatedly you seem to be saying it was the old early on getting the virus, and now for some reason they aren't?

That seems rather unlikely.

Far more likely as has been said before is that the virus came in strong and is now starting to fizzle out. They are basically done with it it seems.

And show anything at all that shows that it fizzles out before overwhelming hospitals and/or causing 40% more deaths. Why don't you start with Florida, Texas, and Arizona to see the fizzling out theory is working.