Return to Play & Practice

[Keepermom2]

Look at the chart. I did the research for you. The wave in Sweden has crested,both in death and new cases. I'm not saying the Swedish strategy was the right one. But the waves (even in much maligned Sweden) do eventually expire. It's math.

You can't look at deaths in Sweden as an indicator because deaths start to decline the younger the people are that gets it just as has been shown here. You also can't look at cases just from testing because there are so many variables that could change the picture.

 

[Desert Hound]

You can't look at deaths in Sweden as an indicator because deaths start to decline the younger the people are that gets it just as has been shown here.

You seem to be arguing that early on the young in Sweden were not exposed to the virus, and now they are? And relatedly you seem to be saying it was the old early on getting the virus, and now for some reason they aren't?

That seems rather unlikely.

Far more likely as has been said before is that the virus came in strong and is now starting to fizzle out. They are basically done with it it seems.

 

[Copa9]

I have a different perspective. It's very hard for me to follow advise of so called "experts" when they change their advise every day. I have no problem wearing a mask and with having pre-teen kids sitting at home, but good luck with having teens locked up. Long term mental result of this will be devastating.

The professionals have changed their advice, thank goodness! No one should keep their head in the sand especially the professionals. This is a new virus, it is not the "usual" seasonal flu. I want the professionals to learn as much as possible about covid and make adjustments. This is not forever, good therapeutics are happening, better treatment and hopefully a vaccine next year.

 

[Copa9]

And there we have it. If even the UK isn't safe to open (after their late lockdown and horrible curve), the logic of the panic-drive school is basically perpetual lockdown until a vaccine. No youth sports, no schools until a vaccine (and also, where we started this, no informal get togethers with 'safe' friends). Stay locked down, stay safe.

Here's a little thought exercise. We know the flu is more dangerous to the under 12 set. Yet the under 12 set is being asked to make enormous sacrifice for those that are older, in particular those that are near the end of life. So, every flu season, shouldn't we be requiring masks of everyone as well? Yes, we know we have a vaccine and kids die from it, but if masks are a good idea to save the old, shouldn't we also wear masks to save the young, if it is such a small burden on everyone? If not why are we all asking the young to sacrifice now, if we aren't prepared to sacrifice for them later?

Maybe, just maybe, every adult should get a seasonal flu shot! That is the best way to protect the young who should also get a flu shot!

 

[Grace T.]

The professionals have changed their advice, thank goodness! No one should keep their head in the sand especially the professionals. This is a new virus, it is not the "usual" seasonal flu. I want the professionals to learn as much as possible about covid and make adjustments. This is not forever, good therapeutics are happening, better treatment and hopefully a vaccine next year.

Err...Fauci admitted he basically lied about the masks and we've known about asymptomatic transmissions since the Diamond Princess. And the "experts" are now talking about mask usage "for years"

'We'll be living with masks for years': COVID-19 through the eyes of a pandemic expert

Since the summer of 2019, I've been speaking with one of the world's leading pandemic experts about what a global outbreak could look like. Now, as the world enters a grim new phase, he says we're in a whole new ball game.

www.cnet.com

 

[Copa9]

Unfortunately, a very good friend lost their son to suicide during the lockdown. Whether the lockdown impacted his actions, we will likely never know.
I don't know anyone that's a few degrees removed from me that has died of Covid, but I do know a couple other teens in the community that have committed suicide during Covid. Devastating regardless of the cause.

Horrible tragedy. I know three teens who committed suicide last fall in our district. One a neighbor. Please, please if you suspect your child has a mental illness, seek help either through your school district or the county or a private source. Even young children resort to suicide.

 

[Grace T.]

Maybe, just maybe, every adult should get a seasonal flu shot! That is the best way to protect the young who should also get a flu shot!

The flu shot isn't very good. Some years it's a pretty big bust. The COVID vaccine might not be very efficient (some experts are saying you may need to get a booster every 3 months). And if you think the government isn't going to mandate it (at least for govt employees, students, grant recipients and contractors, and large corps) or at a minimum work it so it's excluded from insurance if you don't get it, I have news for you. A rushed vaccine being injected into children is going to make for a very very ugly fight (full disclaimer: my kids going to get it, even though he might have had it).

 

[Copa9]

Err...Fauci admitted he basically lied about the masks and we've known about asymptomatic transmissions since the Diamond Princess. And the "experts" are now talking about mask usage "for years"

'We'll be living with masks for years': COVID-19 through the eyes of a pandemic expert

Since the summer of 2019, I've been speaking with one of the world's leading pandemic experts about what a global outbreak could look like. Now, as the world enters a grim new phase, he says we're in a whole new ball game.

www.cnet.com

Like I said before, if you have half a brain you figured this out in the beginning.

 

[Keepermom2]

You didn't bother to look at the charts regarding Sweden. If you do, you will see it is fizzling out.

I talked about ICU beds a couple of weeks ago noting that if something didn't change, we are going to have a problem. They started dealing with ICU bed capacity by increasing it through deferral of surgeries etc. and what appears to be converting regular hospital beds to ICU beds. You can tell this by looking at the availability chart. When it says they have an increase in ICU patients of 10 yet there was an increase in capacity in one day of about 30, it is pretty obvious. I do have a contact at a facility that confirmed that is what is being done.

Once I saw they were doing that, I started talking and looking ONLY at overall hospitalizations. I stated 2 weeks ago if they do nothing it appears we have a problem with capacity. Guess what, they did something last Wednesday or Thursday and most likely because they saw the same hospitalization capacity concerns and started discussing enforcement of wearing masks. They closed bars, locked down beaches for the weekend, and closed indoor dining. I believe we will see some benefit from that in about 14 to 21 days. Hopefully it is enough to not require further lock downs. I am still seeing people not wearing masks and stores not enforcing. I did see a hopeful sign yesterday with the lowest 7 day calculation of increase change or 27% that I have seen (when calculating numbers based on days with 100% facilities reporting) in the last couple of weeks. All of the days I calculated 7 day change were above 30%. I am hoping that the same holds true for today and tomorrow and going forward.

 

[Keepermom2]

You seem to be arguing that early on the young in Sweden were not exposed to the virus, and now they are? And relatedly you seem to be saying it was the old early on getting the virus, and now for some reason they aren't?

That seems rather unlikely.

Far more likely as has been said before is that the virus came in strong and is now starting to fizzle out. They are basically done with it it seems.

Try reading the article before commenting.

 

[Copa9]

The flu shot isn't very good. Some years it's a pretty big bust. The COVID vaccine might not be very efficient (some experts are saying you may need to get a booster every 3 months). And if you think the government isn't going to mandate it (at least for govt employees, students, grant recipients and contractors, and large corps) or at a minimum work it so it's excluded from insurance if you don't get it, I have news for you. A rushed vaccine being injected into children is going to make for a very very ugly fight (full disclaimer: my kids going to get it, even though he might have had it).

The majority of years the flu vaccine is at least 50% - 70% effective and lessons your chance of dying if you do get the flu. I'm sorry, if you can afford to play soccer, go to movies, go out to eat, then you can pay for a flu shot if your insurance doesn't cover it. It's a matter of priorities. As someone else put correctly, health care workers, law enforcement, people with compromised immune systems, the elderly, will probably get the vaccine before children. Most flu shots are only good for about three months, so nothing new there.

 

[Keepermom2]

You seem to be arguing that early on the young in Sweden were not exposed to the virus, and now they are? And relatedly you seem to be saying it was the old early on getting the virus, and now for some reason they aren't?

That seems rather unlikely.

Far more likely as has been said before is that the virus came in strong and is now starting to fizzle out. They are basically done with it it seems.

And show anything at all that shows that it fizzles out before overwhelming hospitals and/or causing 40% more deaths. Why don't you start with Florida, Texas, and Arizona to see the fizzling out theory is working.

 

[Ellejustus]

Horrible tragedy. I know three teens who committed suicide last fall in our district. One a neighbor. Please, please if you suspect your child has a mental illness, seek help either through your school district or the county or a private source. Even young children resort to suicide.

Sometimes the parents and the adults dealing with teens are the ones that have all the mental issues and the kid just feels beaten down by them all and all their problems in life, spills onto the teen and they see no purpose to live so they check themselves out too. Most the parents I've talked to who lost a loved one from suicide were shocked and did not see it coming.

 

[Desert Hound]

And show anything at all that shows that it fizzles out before overwhelming hospitals and/or causing 40% more deaths. Why don't you start with Florida, Texas, and Arizona to see the fizzling out theory is working.

How about we start with back east. The hardest hit. They assumed they would run out of beds. They didn't. Why do you assume that in Cal it will be different and Cal will run out?

 

[Eagle33]

Vaccine? Not happening - not now, not anytime soon. You are too naive if you believe in this. Doctors still don't know shit about COVID-19.

 

[whatithink]

How about we start with back east. The hardest hit. They assumed they would run out of beds. They didn't. Why do you assume that in Cal it will be different and Cal will run out?

I thought the concern was running out of ICU beds rather than hospital beds. Seems to be concerning officials in Florida, Arizona & Texas

Nearly 84% of Florida's ICU beds are filled amid rising coronavirus cases

On Tuesday, at least two counties had no more ICU beds available.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[Grace T.]

Vaccine? Not happening - not now, not anytime soon. You are too naive if you believe in this. Doctors still don't know shit about COVID-19.

We'll have a vaccine. It's not very hard to do...the science has been around a very very long time. Things like the flu/colds are harder because of the multiple viruses that cause the illness. It just may not be a very good vaccine which is why the chatter in the scientific circles is we may need boosters as often as every 3 months and why they might need to make it mandatory for everyone. And it could always mutate (more substantially than it has so far) which would further complicate things.

 

[Desert Hound]

I thought the concern was running out of ICU beds rather than hospital beds. Seems to be concerning officials in Florida, Arizona & Texas

Nearly 84% of Florida's ICU beds are filled amid rising coronavirus cases

On Tuesday, at least two counties had no more ICU beds available.

www.cbsnews.com

Hospitals Proved Surprisingly Adept at Adding Beds
When calculating whether hospitals would run out of beds, experts used as their baseline the number of beds in use in each hospital, region and state. That makes sense in normal times because hospitals have to meet stringent rules before they are able to add regular beds or intensive care units.

But in the early weeks of the pandemic, state health departments waived many rules and hospitals responded by increasing their capacity, sometimes dramatically. “Just because you only have six ICU beds doesn’t mean they will only have six ICU beds next week,” Muhlestein said. “They can really ramp that up. That’s one of the things we’re learning.”

Take Northwell Health, a chain of 17 acute-care hospitals in New York. Typically, the system has 4,000 beds, not including maternity beds, neonatal intensive care unit beds and psychiatric beds. The system grew to 6,000 beds within two weeks.

-----

As hospitals found ways to expand, government leaders worked with the Army Corps of Engineers to build dozens of field hospitals across the country, such as the one at the Javits Center. According to an analysis of federal spending by NPR, those efforts cost at least $660 million. “But nearly four months into the pandemic, most of these facilities haven’t treated a single patient,” NPR reported.

-----


Demand for Non-COVID-19 Care Plummeted More Than Expected
Hospitals across the country canceled elective surgeries, from hip replacements to kidney transplants. That greatly reduced the number of non-COVID-19 patients they had to treat. “We generated a lot more capacity by getting rid of elective procedures than any of us thought was possible,” Harvard’s Jha said.

How America’s Hospitals Survived the First Wave of the Coronavirus

ProPublica deputy managing editor Charles Ornstein wanted to know why experts were wrong when they said U.S. hospitals would be overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients. Here’s what he learned, including what hospitals can do before the next wave.

www.propublica.org

 

[Keepermom2]

How about we start with back east. The hardest hit. They assumed they would run out of beds. They didn't. Why do you assume that in Cal it will be different and Cal will run out?

I don't believe I ever used the term running out of beds. I have always come at this by saying capacity issues. I used licensed bed as the basis. Of course there is the ability to expand the number of beds and FEMA is working on it right now. There is a 1,000 bed ship parked in San Diego right now and I know Fresno County who is experiencing the same issues is making plans to use their Convention Center. I have not heard anything from OC Health of what plans they have which now is the time they should be planning for it. I have watched press conferences with OC health and I am very scared. The leadership for LA Health is the bomb and is on top of everything. OC Health....they are a disaster waiting to happen.

Any way, like I said, we reach capacity of licensed beds in August if we keep increasing at the weekly rate we have been increasing for the last few weeks. The State seemed to realize this too which is why they pulled back on some openings and put enforcement in place. Hopefully these steps put in place slows the spread down thus slowing down hospitalizations and not requiring further levels of shut downs.

What is the reasonable # of beds that can be added? IDK because no one is reporting that. Considering counties from Central Cal on down are experiencing exponential weekly growth in hospitalizations, can we count on other counties and who gets that 1000 bed ship and how fast does it fill up. If we only get the hospitalization increase rate down to only 20% increase a week instead of 30% or more that we have been running, that gets us a few extra weeks and the reality is OC alone would need an additional 1,200 more beds per week. New York was able to deal with capacity issues because they completely shut down and New Yorkers were scared.

The point is, expect additional levels of shut down if we don't flatten the hospital bed increase percentage from week to week. I am expecting some level of flattening over the coming weeks from the recent mandates but the question remains will it be enough.

Also, as was explained to me from someone from FEMA, you can convert a certain amount of hospital beds to ICU beds if you have the proper equipment and the ICU trained staff. I see the shortage of ICU trained staff has been the problem in Arizona and Texas. They have been flying them in but it has still been the struggle.

I have tried every way I know how to explain this to you and a couple of others. Bottom line, shut downs are not about death rate rather hospitalization capacity. Expect some additional shut downs if the Hospitalization increase rate from week to week doesn't change.

I don't care whether you agree or not. I am done explaining it.

 

[MicPaPa]

I don't believe I ever used the term running out of beds. I have always come at this by saying capacity issues. I used licensed bed as the basis. Of course there is the ability to expand the number of beds and FEMA is working on it right now. There is a 1,000 bed ship parked in San Diego right now and I know Fresno County who is experiencing the same issues is making plans to use their Convention Center. I have not heard anything from OC Health of what plans they have which now is the time they should be planning for it. I have watched press conferences with OC health and I am very scared. The leadership for LA Health is the bomb and is on top of everything. OC Health....they are a disaster waiting to happen.

Any way, like I said, we reach capacity of licensed beds in August if we keep increasing at the weekly rate we have been increasing for the last few weeks. The State seemed to realize this too which is why they pulled back on some openings and put enforcement in place. Hopefully these steps put in place slows the spread down thus slowing down hospitalizations and not requiring further levels of shut downs.

What is the reasonable # of beds that can be added? IDK because no one is reporting that. Considering counties from Central Cal on down are experiencing exponential weekly growth in hospitalizations, can we count on other counties and who gets that 1000 bed ship and how fast does it fill up. If we only get the hospitalization increase rate down to only 20% increase a week instead of 30% or more that we have been running, that gets us a few extra weeks and the reality is OC alone would need an additional 1,200 more beds per week. New York was able to deal with capacity issues because they completely shut down and New Yorkers were scared.

The point is, expect additional levels of shut down if we don't flatten the hospital bed increase percentage from week to week. I am expecting some level of flattening over the coming weeks from the recent mandates but the question remains will it be enough.

Also, as was explained to me from someone from FEMA, you can convert a certain amount of hospital beds to ICU beds if you have the proper equipment and the ICU trained staff. I see the shortage of ICU trained staff has been the problem in Arizona and Texas. They have been flying them in but it has still been the struggle.

I have tried every way I know how to explain this to you and a couple of others. Bottom line, shut downs are not about death rate rather hospitalization capacity. Expect some additional shut downs if the Hospitalization increase rate from week to week doesn't change.

I don't care whether you agree or not. I am done explaining it.

... seems like your answer to a perceived bed capacity issue is to follow NY and "completely shut down and be scared." To which I find completely unacceptable and completely unAmerican.

You're welcome to completely stay home and be completely scared... but if it's all the same to you, I'll go with Land of the Free and Home of the Brave.

 

[Keepermom2]

... seems like your answer to perceived bed capacity issue is follow NY "completely shut down and be scared." To which I find completely unacceptable and completely unAmerican.

You're welcome to completely stay home and be completely scared... but if it's all the same to you, I'll go with Land of the Free and Home of the Brave.

That is what you got out of what I said? Wow!!!!! I will be hiding all of your comments because you clearly have another agenda that is completely not useful. Goodbye!