Eagle33
PREMIER
It all depends. If T looses in Nov, we will be back in no time. If he wins, we will be sheltering in place for another 4 years
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The Outlaw *BANNED*
PREMIER
Well, you're kind of saying what I'm trying to say. No matter what we do, there will be people that screw it up. Whether it's on a beach... on a rioting run or on a soccer field. I don't think there's any point in trying to mass quarantine because all you'll do is delay the inevitable. More and more I'm starting to warm to the idea of Covid parties. Come what may. I think there's an argument to be had there.
I don’t think the whole thing is a fake. Our government can’t build a bridge in less than 8 years. And you think they managed to fake an international virus pandemic?
We may be hitting a downward trend in cases, though. AZ seems to have peaked. FL and GA may be peaking as well. Hope it is true more broadly.
My guess is that a 20% infection rate + masks + distancing is enough to make the numbers decline. The more consistent we are about masks and distance, the lower that percentage gets.
Eagle33
PREMIER
by no means I think it's fake. However I do believe, it's blown out of proportions a lot.
MacDre
PREMIER
All good questions that I don’t have a good answer to. I think all of the options suck so it becomes a matter of choosing the lesser of the evils. The loss of life is permanent. A lost business can be rebuilt. I’d rather chance loosing businesses than lives because it’s the lesser of the two evils.
Gold medal in mental gymnastics. Actually I'd only give Justafan a bronze, because on occasion he doesn't seem to be afraid of an opinion that is different from his. He also seems capable of debate while avoiding name calling for the most part.
The Outlaw *BANNED*
PREMIER
A business can be rebuilt, Dre, but that's a livelihood that isn't easily rebuilt. What do people do, in the interim? There's been 1 "stimulus" payment since this began. Yet again they're "thinking... pondering... considering... taking a look at..." And if they do come up with another $1,200, how long will that last? Unemployment checks are taking 3-4 months and some still have not been paid. What are those people supposed to do?
You’re asking the wrong question when you ask whether the virus is dangerous to kids. The question is the degree to which a kid gathering is dangerous to grown ups.
How long and severely we shelter is a valid question.
I can’t think of a single good argument for not wearing masks, though. The anti-mask folks are just making it worse for all of us.
The Outlaw *BANNED*
PREMIER
I can't either... but everywhere I go, I see people not wearing them. That's never going to change. Even places that require them will not enforce that rule. I see people removing them in stores... at the gym... restaurants. So if you're going to have people refuse to comply, and you won't do anything to them for it, we're wasting our time playing this game. We deliberately keep our kids away from elderly people... and that's fairly easy, but unless there's some end game for a vaccine, I think it's time to consider opening up and parents carpe diem. Any one of us can die tomorrow. Why are we acting like there's some guarantee?
Make sure they also check to see if you have a heart.
The Outlaw *BANNED*
PREMIER
Dre has a heart. It's the backbone that's suspect.
Fair point. I've not seen any material evidence of serious or fatal spread from children to adults. There might be some anecdotal evidence out there, IDK. Those adults that have vulnerable health conditions should already be quarantining from exposure to others.
The American Academy of Pediatrics, the National Academy of Medicine, and many other medical professionals have published their unequivocal opinion that kids need to be back at school, because the other risks of not returning to school are far greater than the Covid risks. Your mantra has always been are "you an Epidemiologist?". Well the NY Times surveyed epidemiologists and 70% said that they would have their children return to school this summer or fall. (I'm sure you'll disparage the article because it was from June, but the reality is that the only thing that has changed from then and now are the hotspots).
I'm not saying that every kid should be required to go back to school, all I'm asking for is a choice. My son's school district announced that parents would have a choice of 100% online, 100% in school (capacity permitting), or 50/50. Unfortunately, our Governor ignored the science, under pressure from the teacher's union that is pushing a political agenda, and took that choice away.
At this point I couldn't care less about youth sports, I just want my kids, and other kids who so choose, to be back in school in the fall.
MacDre
PREMIER
It’s bad out there and unfortunately I think it’s going to get worse before it gets better. I have moved 2 separate families into my house (my neighbors are pissed) since the beginning of COVID. I think we are all in for some tough times in the near future.
SoccerLocker
SILVER ELITE
You're going to have to accept a ton of deaths to reach a 20% infection rate. Sweden hasn't managed to reach 10% yet by keeping society pretty wide open:
"Regardless of whether herd immunity is a goal or a side effect of the Swedish strategy, how has it worked out? Not so well, according to the agency’s own test results. The proportion of Swedes carrying antibodies is estimated to be under 10%, thus nowhere near herd immunity. And yet, the Swedish death rate is unnerving. Sweden has a death toll greater than the United States: 556 deaths per million inhabitants, compared with 425, as of July 20.
Sweden also has a death toll more than four and a half times greater than that of the other four Nordic countries combined — more than seven times greater per million inhabitants. For a number of weeks, Sweden has been among the top in the world when it comes to current reported deaths per capita. And despite this, the strategy in essence remains the same."
Sweden hoped herd immunity would curb COVID-19. Don't do what we did. It's not working.
If we can extrapolate to 1,000 per million deaths (roughly 556 * 2) to get to 20% infection in USA, that's 330,000 dead.
MacDre
PREMIER
Not overall general arguments but could you give us specific reasons as to why it is important to you that your kids go back to school in the fall?
I sure hope you're wrong but my wife say's the same thing. I will always be the the guy that says the glass is half full and will try and keep a smile. Peace to all the peace makers!!!!
MacDre
PREMIER
Ouch! That hurt.
The Outlaw *BANNED*
PREMIER
Interesting you brought up Sweden... I just saw this but haven't yet read all of it.
Swedish epidemiology boss says questioned COVID-19 strategy seems to be working
Sweden's top epidemiologist said on Tuesday a rapid decline in new critical COVID-19 cases alongside slowing death rates indicated that Sweden's strategy for slowing the epidemic, which has been widely questioned abroad, was working.
www.reuters.com
1. My kids want to go back to school
2. In person learning has been proven to be superior to online learning particularly for kids
3. My kids public schools' idea of online learning is assigning homework, not actual teaching
4. Real time feedback is very critical to the learning process. Substantive feedback is very difficult in an online environment. In fact one of my daughters teachers told her during online school this past spring, "don't bother me unless it is an emergency"
5. Many teachers (and obviously kids for that matter) don't take online learning seriously
6. My kids have very high educational aspirations and they, as well as my wife and I, believe that online learning will set back their education. In particular, they will be less challenged by online learning
7. Social interaction, not necessarily with friends, but learning how to work with other kids and exposures to other kids from different backgrounds. Maybe social problem solving is a better term.
These are the reasons that come off the top of my head, and yes I realize that many of them are interrelated. Now in the spirit of full disclosure, my kids will do fine with online learning. They won't thrive, but they will survive. My bigger concern is for the overall education of everyone's child. Many families don't have the resources to make online learning even a viable option. Many kids didn't even bother to, or couldn't, login in to online learning this past spring. We can't as a community afford to have underprivileged kids fall farther behind. Online learning will also prevent some parents from returning to work or in the alternative will leave kids unsupervised to possible roam the neighborhood. In person learning also allows some kids a safe place away from home. In that regard, educators are a significant reporter of child abuse, but without in-person learning it will be extremely difficult to identify those situations.
We have to think of the bigger picture and take the Covid only goggles off.
whatithink
GOLD
I posted this on another thread
From the article
"The team monitored nearly 65,000 patients for about 10 days after a coronavirus infection was detected.
They found that a total of 11.8 percent of household contacts of these “index patients” had COVID-19 infection. In households with patients between 10 and 19 years old, nearly 19 percent of household contacts had infection."
Coronavirus transmission higher among older school children, study finds
A study out of South Korea found higher rates of COVID-19 transmission among older school-aged children.
www.foxnews.com
I'm well aware that 10-19 age group is more likely to contract and spread Covid relative to 0-10 year olds. You know who else is aware of that fact? American Academy of Pediatrics, the National Academy of Medicine and many epidemiologists and other medical professionals that still believe kids should be back at school. Again we can't look at reopening schools through only a Covid lens.I posted this on another thread
From the article
"The team monitored nearly 65,000 patients for about 10 days after a coronavirus infection was detected.
They found that a total of 11.8 percent of household contacts of these “index patients” had COVID-19 infection. In households with patients between 10 and 19 years old, nearly 19 percent of household contacts had infection."
Coronavirus transmission higher among older school children, study finds
A study out of South Korea found higher rates of COVID-19 transmission among older school-aged children.
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