Let Them Play CA

crush said:
The folks dying with Corona are not at the gym or bar. Their all alone at the "end of the line" hospice care, where one dies all alone. The other ones all got whacked by a car, a gun, heart burn or had a heart attack or a stroke. Something like that is where the true deaths comes and then if a Doc has a suspension they have the Rona, they get tagged "Rona Death." Next month is our 1 year anniversary of Covid 19 BTW. Can you believe it;s been 11 months of this?
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Ooh, @crush has gone full Q Covid denier. Amazing how it spontaneously generates in hospice care facilities.
 
Grace T. said:
Yeah, but now we are arguing about if we are going to have pepperoni or vegetarian pizza. We are still going to have pizza no matter what we do.

The next step is to figure out how much of a primary driver. My guess is (from all the curves we seen around the world) it's a lot....it's the pizza, not the toppings. So we have to subtract the portion that we can't have any impact on (short of a mass lockdown Australia style which means keeping people separated in their homes). To that remaining portion we have to apply a cost/benefit analysis. E.g., cloth masks indoors for going to the market (marginal benefit for little cost, particularly if you don't force the screaming 3 year olds on airplanes or the autistic kids to wear them); closing schools (very little benefit for an enormous cost). The health experts and politicians didn't do that....they assumed we could get to zero (remember the hits? "masks are better than vaccines"....."lockdown for 6 weeks and it will go away"....."this will be over by summer") and they failed to apply costs (instead just whacking at the low hanging fruit in an effort to do something.
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Your search for the single cause continues. You won’t find it.

That is because it is a complicated system. There are at least six major variables: age, variant, weather, masks, distance, indoor/outdoors. You don’t get to pick one and ignore the others.

The next step is not to latch onto of those and ask “is this the primary driver?”

The next step is to get with the program.

Mask, distance, outdoors.
 
dad4 said:
Your search for the single cause continues. You won’t find it.

That is because it is a complicated system. There are at least six major variables: age, variant, weather, masks, distance, indoor/outdoors. You don’t get to pick one and ignore the others.

The next step is not to latch onto of those and ask “is this the primary driver?”

The next step is to get with the program.

Mask, distance, outdoors.
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Nah, you can't do that without a cost/benefit analysis of each NPI. Just "get with the program" is what got California in the mess that it's in: doing something without thinking just for the sake of doing something, and as a result causing enormous ruin yet still getting an out of control virus.

And BTW, from a macro point of view, age is not a variable. The age dispersion is a particular population is, but not the age of any particular person. Variants may not be a variable for much longer depending on the breath of dispersion.
 
texanincali said:
Good to see he may be coming around. Unfortunate that he has waited until his political career is in possible tatters. My guess is that kids get back on the field, but I think this has come too late in the game for him to save himself.
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I wish that were true. I am concerned that voters will forget about all this come election time or sooner if he is recalled. Or they just replace Newsom with someone advocating the same policies. I think it would be difficult to get anyone that does not have a big D by their name elected in California.
 
Grace T. said:
is what got California in the mess that it's in: doing something without thinking just for the sake of doing something, and as a result causing enormous ruin yet still getting an out of control virus
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Instead of creating all the harm to biz, families, kids, CA may as well have just done with FL and TX did.

Just image schools full of kids. Lower unemployment, tax revenue, people not getting wiped out financially. CA screwed the pooch on their lockdown approach.
 
MacDre said:
I disagree. You can lead a horse to water but you can’t force it to drink. People in this community take advice from their religious leaders not from corrupt nerds that write biased reports for companies that hate small businesses. You see those reports were put out by liberals because they want you to come work in their factories etc. etc. Many of these folks prefer to pray and “leave it in god’s hand” rather than seek medical treatment. So the fact that there were reports of adverse health effects way back is meaningless if you don’t analyze it in the proper context.
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So are you saying that the church leaders are in cahoots with the tobacco industry to keep people addicted to cigarettes? That's messed up!
 
Desert Hound said:
Instead of creating all the harm to biz, families, kids, CA may as well have just done with FL and TX did.

Just image schools full of kids. Lower unemployment, tax revenue, people not getting wiped out financially. CA screwed the pooch on their lockdown approach.
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I get why the politicians do it, but it still strikes me as fascinating that some health experts and informed people have grabbed a hold of this idea that "something's got to work" and won't let go of it, despite the mountain of evidence building to the contrary.
 
EOTL said:
Ooh, @crush has gone full Q Covid denier. Amazing how it spontaneously generates in hospice care facilities.
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I know more about this then you, that's for sure. I learned from @Desert Hound @happy9 @MacDre @Kicker4Life @watfly and so many others I lost track. My all time fav is @Grace T. T=Trump or Truth? She is my #1 Corona expert here, my sweet Grace. Grace is raw and honest and that's what makes her amazing to me. @dad4 , his math is full of dog sh*t and just wrong and makes me not trust his numbers.
 
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TOSDCI said:
I wish that were true. I am concerned that voters will forget about all this come election time or sooner if he is recalled. Or they just replace Newsom with someone advocating the same policies. I think it would be difficult to get anyone that does not have a big D by their name elected in California.
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I hope you are right I am fearful that most of those supporting the recall and re election of a more moderate governor have left the state
 
crush said:
I know more about this then you, that's for sure. I learned from @Desert Hound @happy9 @MacDre @Kicker4Life @watfly and so many others I lost track. My all time fav is @Grace T. T=Trump or Truth? She is my #1 Corona expert here, my sweet Grace. Grace is raw and honest and that's what makes her amazing to me. @dad4 , his math is full of poop sometimes and just wrong and makes me not trust his numbers.
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I actually think Dad's math is quite brilliant and he has an amazing mind. I actually really respect him. When it's a pure data analysis he's the king. I think his analysis of what's likely to happen is actually pretty spot on (I'm probably slightly more pessimistic but those are my priors). Where he runs into issues is the conclusion. The "N" in his personality indicates he's not really a true "data guy". Ns are very intuitive...the problem is that with intuition your are subject to your priors (in his case the idea that something, anything, must work) and unless you've achieved a very high level of self-awareness it's hard to check your priors.
 
TOSDCI said:
I wish that were true. I am concerned that voters will forget about all this come election time or sooner if he is recalled. Or they just replace Newsom with someone advocating the same policies. I think it would be difficult to get anyone that does not have a big D by their name elected in California.
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I agree. There is a list of Democrats a mile long that are better than Newsom. Policies in CA are what they are and that isn't going to change. How those policies are laid out and how they are accomplished is something entirely different. There is just too much blood on his hands to survive this.
 
Grace T. said:
I actually think Dad's math is quite brilliant and he has an amazing mind. I actually really respect him. When it's a pure data analysis he's the king. I think his analysis of what's likely to happen is actually pretty spot on (I'm probably slightly more pessimistic but those are my priors). Where he runs into issues is the conclusion. The "N" in his personality indicates he's not really a true "data guy". Ns are very intuitive...the problem is that with intuition your are subject to your priors (in his case the idea that something, anything, must work) and unless you've achieved a very high level of self-awareness it's hard to check your priors.
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OK then, I will take back that dad's math is sh*t. I see things clearly but no one believes me. I sit back now and just read and try and help everyone to relax and calm down. The good in all this is Grace is we have been forced to look inside our shadows and see what's really their. I have much to share but most are not ready :) I can say 100% a new kind of fun and life is coming.
 
TOSDCI said:
So are you saying that the church leaders are in cahoots with the tobacco industry to keep people addicted to cigarettes? That's messed up!
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Danville, VA is also known as the city of churches. Many K-12 educators also had bacca farms too. So i’d say both religious leaders and educators were involved with actively misleading the masses. But, considering how our country got rich off of bacca it easy to imagine why there was a misinformation campaign regarding the safety of bacca use.
 
MacDre said:
Danville, VA is also known as the city of churches. Many K-12 educators also had bacca farms too. So i’d say both religious leaders and educators were involved with actively misleading the masses. But, considering how our country got rich off of bacca it easy to imagine why there was a misinformation campaign regarding the safety of bacca use.
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Leaders leading the sheep to the slaughter suck!!!
 
Speed said:
I hope you are right I am fearful that most of those supporting the recall and re election of a more moderate governor have left the state
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I think you are right on...too many Ds and not only that California is actually becoming anti-R...so chances of having him removed or a more conservative take his place is pretty far fetched, but at least if it does get to recall he can realize he is somewhat accountable
 
Grace T. said:
I get why the politicians do it, but it still strikes me as fascinating that some health experts and informed people have grabbed a hold of this idea that "something's got to work" and won't let go of it, despite the mountain of evidence building to the contrary.
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The thing that just boggles the mind is...

We have known since the first month or 2 the real at risk people. A small age segment of the population makes up 70-80% of all deaths. And yet our experts opted for blanket measures covering people who have essentially little to no risk.

Instead of focusing on them, we pretend kids going to school are at risk and shut that down. CDC shows as of today about 730 people under the age of 24 have died because of covid. IF you divided that equally by state (yes I know...this is just for illustration purposes) you are at 14.6 per state. Think about that. We shut down schools/colleges youth sports? They are not at risk.
 
dad4 said:
single cause fallacy
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Maybe our traditional flu has morphed to now COVID. It's interesting that flu numbers are non existant and also that COVID numbers sky rocketted around the same months as the typical flu peaks. I know this is not a scientific view but if you look at the numbers it kind of makes sense.
 
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