Let Them Play CA

Are you blaming Newsom for problems caused by Reagan?

Reagan didn’t allow people to shit on the sidewalk. He also didn’t provide them needles and safe houses to shoot heroin and smoke crack. Gavin thought it was okay for taxpaying citizens to lose their businesses because patrons had to step over bodies of sleeping bums blocking their doors. Typical, liberal mentality. Just punish people doing it the right way so you can appeal to the voting flock of sheep headed to the slaughter.

Let’s be honest here. People need to have some accountability for becoming drug addicts. And it doesn’t make sense to keep bashing Reagan for something that happened nearly four decades ago. Are you telling me, if it was that egregious, nobody has been able to correct it? Took Biden about 20 minutes to go back to flushing cash down the toilet on the climate accord.

You can’t force bums and junkies to get clean and stay clean. You also can’t force them to get mental health and shelter, that IS available, if they don’t want it. Blaming Reagan is a cop out, MD. People can get help if they want it. Coddling them has only made it worse.
 
Reagan didn’t allow people to shit on the sidewalk. He also didn’t provide them needles and safe houses to shoot heroin and smoke crack. Gavin thought it was okay for taxpaying citizens to lose their businesses because patrons had to step over bodies of sleeping bums blocking their doors. Typical, liberal mentality. Just punish people doing it the right way so you can appeal to the voting flock of sheep headed to the slaughter.

Let’s be honest here. People need to have some accountability for becoming drug addicts. And it doesn’t make sense to keep bashing Reagan for something that happened nearly four decades ago. Are you telling me, if it was that egregious, nobody has been able to correct it? Took Biden about 20 minutes to go back to flushing cash down the toilet on the climate accord.

You can’t force bums and junkies to get clean and stay clean. You also can’t force them to get mental health and shelter, that IS available, if they don’t want it. Blaming Reagan is a cop out, MD. People can get help if they want it. Coddling them has only made it worse.
Scott, I'm curious to know who you think brought all that heroin, needles and all that crack to da states so the folks can get addicted? I know who did but I stay quiet now because of threats to me to STFU.
 
I think this article belongs in the Let Them Play section.

"An 81-person orgy at a French warehouse was broken up by police last Friday for violating a coronavirus curfew, a report said."

Are we surprised they were not wearing masks and not social distancing?

“The event was in breach of the curfew, and there were also problems with masks and social distancing,” an investigator told the outlet."

 
I think this article belongs in the Let Them Play section.

"An 81-person orgy at a French warehouse was broken up by police last Friday for violating a coronavirus curfew, a report said."

Are we surprised they were not wearing masks and not social distancing?

“The event was in breach of the curfew, and there were also problems with masks and social distancing,” an investigator told the outlet."

81 has a nice ring too it. Is this Club 81 that my pal was sharing about? He told me about this place that was a warehouse of sex. Basically, whatever your little heart desires can be found at the 81 French Warehouse? Whatever the imagination, you can have your dreams come true.
 
How does “weather is a major factor” imply “not much can be done”?

The real point of the article is that the models should account for weather. Which is true.

But you seem to want to use weather as an excuse for claiming that no policies do anything. Which is false.
That is a fallacy. All policies should be a balance or risk and reward. The key point is if weather is the primary driver of surges and not social distancing and masks then... you have to weigh the impact of social distancing and lockdown vs the negative impact of its use.
The article supports the position that many of us have been arguing that weather/seasonality is the primary driver of cases (much more than distancing or Npis...we don’t know the ratios...but from the curves we’ve seen the differences is likely on several orders of impact). You asked the question if you can’t control the weather how is it helpful. I point out why is the standard “helpful”? Sometimes it just points out (at least that aspect of) things can’t be controlled. You then answer your own question and say well the modeling (there’s another one too that flows from modeling....since you can’t lockdown forever if you must lockdown don’t do it during happy times like summer).

the fact though remains that beyond the hard lockdowns of China and Australia and isolated countries like Taiwan and New Zealand no where in the world has managed to control the virus with Npis. This article is just another explanation as to why. If seasonality is the primary driver, you can’t control the weather.

the npis at most help only on the margins...help you be Denmark instead of Sweden, California instead of Florida (oops...I meant Arizona). But the health experts never calculated the costs of their npis (only the benefits) especially among the easiest to target (the kids): whether resulting depressions, suicide, drop in health, abuse or substance abuse resulting from lost schools, closed playgrounds, closed activities, restricted socializing, and sports.
Not to mention the economic impact of the npis which in turn feeds the depression, suicide, abuse cycle. Basically saying the economic and mental health risk of implementing the npi outweighs the benefit received. Remember when we were just flattening the curve? I miss those days.
 
There hasn't been a Repub mayor in SF since the early 60s. Off the top of my head the last R city council member was in the late 60s/early 70s. What SF is today is as a result of decades of D mis-management.
I agree and that’s why SF is one of the best cities in the world. The problems in San Francisco date back to problems associated with R.
 
Scott, I'm curious to know who you think brought all that heroin, needles and all that crack to da states so the folks can get addicted? I know who did but I stay quiet now because of threats to me to STFU.

Yes... I know the conspiracy stories. The FBI, the CIA, Elvis... they all dropped drugs into the ghettos. It’s all their fault. Just like the idiotic commercial I saw, over the weekend, with some black girl babbling a rhyme about how cigarette companies continue to prey upon black people. As if black people didn’t know, back in Reagan’s tenure, that smoking was deadly. Yet again, my man, it’s always someone else’s fault. Is there anyone alive that doesn’t know tobacco and crack are bad?

Any good parent teaches their kid about “accountability”. Yet all I ever see and hear now, especially from liberals, is how people not doing well are just victims. We’re going in the wrong direction as a society.
 
I agree and that’s why SF is one of the best cities in the world. The problems in San Francisco date back to problems associated with R.
Those stupid R folks. Rich, Racists Republicans and so Rude, Right? Just paint those fools all the same. If white, then of course they will be labelled R unless whitey can prove their not an R by wearing a mask and kneeling and asking for mercy. The D group is so fair and loving and so nice to. That T dude might have been unto the future and for sure the Q guy has made some interesting predictions that only one WHO knew the future could predict. If we can get the math corrected and stop playing color games, then we who can get along will be left to clean up the mess left by greed. I can;t wait. This is so easy to do. If we all agree to get the cheaters to stop cheating and all the evil assholes to once and for all leave this great planet earth, then well, we will have bliss. This planet was made for love and to reproduce life. Space Force has special spacecraft to send those who want fear & death to another planet called, "Death Star."
 
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Yes... I know the conspiracy stories. The FBI, the CIA, Elvis... they all dropped drugs into the ghettos. It’s all their fault. Just like the idiotic commercial I saw, over the weekend, with some black girl babbling a rhyme about how cigarette companies continue to prey upon black people. As if black people didn’t know, back in Reagan’s tenure, that smoking was deadly. Yet again, my man, it’s always someone else’s fault. Is there anyone alive that doesn’t know tobacco and crack are bad?

Any good parent teaches their kid about “accountability”. Yet all I ever see and hear now, especially from liberals, is how people not doing well are just victims. We’re going in the wrong direction as a society.
Funny. My grandparents lived and farmed tobacco in Danville, VA the last capital of the confederacy before it fell. I doubt there is a more conservative place in the US. Gun safety is a mandatory class in sixth grade. All of my teachers white or black were conservative Christian’s and farmed “bacca” as they call it in the south. Many kids didn’t start school until after October because they had to pull bacca. These folks were lied to and fooled. They didn’t have a clue about the adverse health consequences of bacca.
 
Those stupid R folks. Rich, Racists Republicans and so Rude, Right? Just paint those fools all the same. If white, then of course they will be labelled R unless whitey can prove their not an R by wearing a mask and kneeling and asking for mercy. The D group is so fair and loving and so nice to. That T dude might have been unto the future and for sure the Q guy has made some interesting predictions that only one WHO knew the future could predict. If we can get the math corrected and stop playing color games, then we who can get along will be left to clean up the mess left by greed. I can;t wait. This is so easy to do. If we all agree to get the cheaters to stop cheating and all the evil assholes to once and for all leave this great planet earth, then well, we will have bliss. This planet was made for love and to reproduce life. Space Force has special spacecraft to send those who want fear & death to another planet called, "Death Star."
I believe most African Americans have conservative Christian values, especially in the southern states. So, I don’t see it as a white and black thing.
 
Are you advocating for high density low income housing in the Bay Area? We can look at Harlem, south side Chicago, S.E. Washington D.C., Compton, The Jungle (LA), sobrainty park & the 6-9 village in East Oakland, and last but not least North Richmond to realize high density low income housing is a failed policy of the past. The traffic would also get worse.

So when my daughter and I came back to the Bay Area for Covid, we watched Coach Carter. After the movie, she asked me was I like Coach Carter and I said NO because I don’t go to Richmond anymore. Then she asked why and I didn’t want to tell her but I felt guilty. So, I decided to go to the hood and check in. I was surprised to see that North Richmond is no more. All of the low income housing is boarded up and empty now as we speak. My research indicates many of the residents were bribed/offered new houses in Henderson, NV and accepted. The crime rate will definitely be going up in Henderson soon if it hasn’t happened already. I’d be pissed if I had purchased a McMansion at market value in Henderson.

So let the tech companies come to Vallejo. The fancy folks can live in Vallejo, Napa, Sonoma, or Petaluma. The lower income folks can stay in Fairfield, Vacaville, and Dixon with about a 15-40 minute commute back to Vallejo for their tech job. The North Bay needs tech and tech needs the North Bay. I am surprised it hasn’t happened yet.

Also, in Bay Area 100k is almost low income. I have helped some disabled vets get housing at the affordable housing condos (as opposed to low income) the Warriors had to build to get approval for their stadium on the Embarcadero. It seems affordable housing in San Francisco and Berkeley are targeting teachers and disabled vets only so not sure more affordable housing is gonna help young couples if they aren’t educators.
I am advocating for housing. My preference is high density, but I’m not that picky.

Market rate. CA is a few million homes short. You’d bankrupt the state if you tried to subsidize it all. Even then you wouldn’t make a dent in the problem. 4 million homes * 500K per subsidized init. = 2 trillion dollars. That’s not going to happen, so let’s stop pretending.

The people in power seem to think like you. Invite in lots of corporations. Build a big office building. Rich people will move in, and poor people will move...... somewhere.

On the rare occasions when they do think about housing, it goes something like this: We just displaced another 50K people. Maybe we’ll build 500 low income units and call it square.

Now, I have no problem with inviting tech companies to Vallejo. But, when you do it, don’t forget to build enough housing for all the techies you just asked in. Otherwise, people like me will bid up prices and young poor folks get screwed.
 
Funny. My grandparents lived and farmed tobacco in Danville, VA the last capital of the confederacy before it fell. I doubt there is a more conservative place in the US. Gun safety is a mandatory class in sixth grade. All of my teachers white or black were conservative Christian’s and farmed “bacca” as they call it in the south. Many kids didn’t start school until after October because they had to pull bacca. These folks were lied to and fooled. They didn’t have a clue about the adverse health consequences of bacca.
Bacca? I've learned more in two years on this forum then I did in all my years in school. I think we have some super smart and educated folks here. What a free education :) I love reading about all of our backgrounds. Dre, I got with my in laws this last weekend. Gramps finally let it all out after knowing this guy over 24 years. Both of them have always thought I was British for some reason. Can you imagine that? Alzheimer's has set in and I had to correct the record. I went all Scottish Highlander on him and let him know to stop having false perceptions of me because I have blond hair and green eyes. He told me the stories of growing up in Guatemala and all these rich blond hair green eye folks took all the wealth away back on the day. He is 100% Myian and lets me know. He now know I'm 100% Scottish Highlander and not British and my peeps land was taken away as well. We now have common respect for each other and I love him more today then ever.
 
Funny. My grandparents lived and farmed tobacco in Danville, VA the last capital of the confederacy before it fell. I doubt there is a more conservative place in the US. Gun safety is a mandatory class in sixth grade. All of my teachers white or black were conservative Christian’s and farmed “bacca” as they call it in the south. Many kids didn’t start school until after October because they had to pull bacca. These folks were lied to and fooled. They didn’t have a clue about the adverse health consequences of bacca.
My grandfather who was born in the early 1920s had a cigarette pack holder in his closet for years. It said " Smoke Coffin Nails" on it. He smoked Pall Malls for 50 years. There were concerns about the health risks of smoking beginning in the 20s. The first scientific studies regarding the dangers of cigarette smoking began to emerge in the 1950s with the studies being published in 1964 clearly linking smoking to lung cancer and other health risks. By the 1980s, there were warnings on packaging and the risks were well known. If you started smoking after these reports and warnings came out, that's kinda on you.
 
That is a fallacy. All policies should be a balance or risk and reward. The key point is if weather is the primary driver of surges and not social distancing and masks then... you have to weigh the impact of social distancing and lockdown vs the negative impact of its use.

Not to mention the economic impact of the npis which in turn feeds the depression, suicide, abuse cycle. Basically saying the economic and mental health risk of implementing the npi outweighs the benefit received. Remember when we were just flattening the curve? I miss those days.
That’s the single cause fallacy. You are arguing that, if weather causes covid surges, then masks must not prevent them. There is no logic there. Weather increases transmission, masks and distance reduce transmission.

You’re just looking at a system with multiple causes. As soon as you say “the primary driver“, you’re going to get it wrong, because in the next step you will ignore the impacts of all the secondary drivers.

I suspect that’s the goal. People don’t want to trade their restaurants and dinner parties for hikes and tennis. So they are searching for a way to pretend that the restaurants and dinner parties are not a problem. Blame everything on weather is an easy way to take no blame ourselves.

Now, if you want to argue whether a specific NPI is worth the cost, we may have some agreement. Some NPI have been useless or counterproductive, and we should drop them. But other NPI work, and it’s long past time to get with the program.
 
The article supports the position that many of us have been arguing that weather/seasonality is the primary driver of cases (much more than distancing or Npis...we don’t know the ratios...but from the curves we’ve seen the differences is likely on several orders of impact). You asked the question if you can’t control the weather how is it helpful. I point out why is the standard “helpful”? Sometimes it just points out (at least that aspect of) things can’t be controlled. You then answer your own question and say well the modeling (there’s another one too that flows from modeling....since you can’t lockdown forever if you must lockdown don’t do it during happy times like summer).

the fact though remains that beyond the hard lockdowns of China and Australia and isolated countries like Taiwan and New Zealand no where in the world has managed to control the virus with Npis. This article is just another explanation as to why. If seasonality is the primary driver, you can’t control the weather.

the npis at most help only on the margins...help you be Denmark instead of Sweden, California instead of Florida (oops...I meant Arizona). But the health experts never calculated the costs of their npis (only the benefits) especially among the easiest to target (the kids): whether resulting depressions, suicide, drop in health, abuse or substance abuse resulting from lost schools, closed playgrounds, closed activities, restricted socializing, and sports.

This is crazy. The weather does not spread Covid-19, people do. The weather only makes it far more spreadable. It is all the more important to socially distance when the weather makes Covid-19 more dangerous. All of you act like this is some “it is what it is” problem.

As for last summer, it is ludicrous to claim that Governor Newsom should have known it was not a big deal for many reasons. First, it was still a big deal. Second, so little was known, and is still unknown, about the virus, so blaming any leader for being cautious even before it came clear how spreadable it is stupid. Third, even if he had been certain that things would get bad as the weather got worse, the weather gets pretty bad as fall semester wears on. Sending everyone back in person with no idea how bad the weather might make it, how virulent it would get, how mutations would make it even more spreadable, is stupid compared to trying to create an online plan with the entire summer to prepare, instead of just having to do it in November.
 
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