Let Them Play CA

crush said:
I know more about this then you, that's for sure. I learned from @Desert Hound @happy9 @MacDre @Kicker4Life @watfly and so many others I lost track. My all time fav is @Grace T. T=Trump or Truth? She is my #1 Corona expert here, my sweet Grace. Grace is raw and honest and that's what makes her amazing to me. @dad4 , his math is full of poop sometimes and just wrong and makes me not trust his numbers.
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I actually think Dad's math is quite brilliant and he has an amazing mind. I actually really respect him. When it's a pure data analysis he's the king. I think his analysis of what's likely to happen is actually pretty spot on (I'm probably slightly more pessimistic but those are my priors). Where he runs into issues is the conclusion. The "N" in his personality indicates he's not really a true "data guy". Ns are very intuitive...the problem is that with intuition your are subject to your priors (in his case the idea that something, anything, must work) and unless you've achieved a very high level of self-awareness it's hard to check your priors.
 
TOSDCI said:
I wish that were true. I am concerned that voters will forget about all this come election time or sooner if he is recalled. Or they just replace Newsom with someone advocating the same policies. I think it would be difficult to get anyone that does not have a big D by their name elected in California.
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I agree. There is a list of Democrats a mile long that are better than Newsom. Policies in CA are what they are and that isn't going to change. How those policies are laid out and how they are accomplished is something entirely different. There is just too much blood on his hands to survive this.
 
Grace T. said:
I actually think Dad's math is quite brilliant and he has an amazing mind. I actually really respect him. When it's a pure data analysis he's the king. I think his analysis of what's likely to happen is actually pretty spot on (I'm probably slightly more pessimistic but those are my priors). Where he runs into issues is the conclusion. The "N" in his personality indicates he's not really a true "data guy". Ns are very intuitive...the problem is that with intuition your are subject to your priors (in his case the idea that something, anything, must work) and unless you've achieved a very high level of self-awareness it's hard to check your priors.
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OK then, I will take back that dad's math is sh*t. I see things clearly but no one believes me. I sit back now and just read and try and help everyone to relax and calm down. The good in all this is Grace is we have been forced to look inside our shadows and see what's really their. I have much to share but most are not ready :) I can say 100% a new kind of fun and life is coming.
 
TOSDCI said:
So are you saying that the church leaders are in cahoots with the tobacco industry to keep people addicted to cigarettes? That's messed up!
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Danville, VA is also known as the city of churches. Many K-12 educators also had bacca farms too. So i’d say both religious leaders and educators were involved with actively misleading the masses. But, considering how our country got rich off of bacca it easy to imagine why there was a misinformation campaign regarding the safety of bacca use.
 
MacDre said:
Danville, VA is also known as the city of churches. Many K-12 educators also had bacca farms too. So i’d say both religious leaders and educators were involved with actively misleading the masses. But, considering how our country got rich off of bacca it easy to imagine why there was a misinformation campaign regarding the safety of bacca use.
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Leaders leading the sheep to the slaughter suck!!!
 
Speed said:
I hope you are right I am fearful that most of those supporting the recall and re election of a more moderate governor have left the state
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I think you are right on...too many Ds and not only that California is actually becoming anti-R...so chances of having him removed or a more conservative take his place is pretty far fetched, but at least if it does get to recall he can realize he is somewhat accountable
 
Grace T. said:
I get why the politicians do it, but it still strikes me as fascinating that some health experts and informed people have grabbed a hold of this idea that "something's got to work" and won't let go of it, despite the mountain of evidence building to the contrary.
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The thing that just boggles the mind is...

We have known since the first month or 2 the real at risk people. A small age segment of the population makes up 70-80% of all deaths. And yet our experts opted for blanket measures covering people who have essentially little to no risk.

Instead of focusing on them, we pretend kids going to school are at risk and shut that down. CDC shows as of today about 730 people under the age of 24 have died because of covid. IF you divided that equally by state (yes I know...this is just for illustration purposes) you are at 14.6 per state. Think about that. We shut down schools/colleges youth sports? They are not at risk.
 
dad4 said:
single cause fallacy
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Maybe our traditional flu has morphed to now COVID. It's interesting that flu numbers are non existant and also that COVID numbers sky rocketted around the same months as the typical flu peaks. I know this is not a scientific view but if you look at the numbers it kind of makes sense.
 
SoccerFan4Life said:
Maybe our traditional flu has morphed to now COVID. It's interesting that flu numbers are non existant and also that COVID numbers sky rocketted around the same months as the typical flu peaks. I know this is not a scientific view but if you look at the numbers it kind of makes sense.
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If you think of covid as a super flu, you’re not far off.

The biology is completely different. Covid can’t mutate into the flu any more than you can give birth to a hippo.

But, in terms of how it affects us, it’s a good model.

The flu is still around. It just can’t spread much in a world of zoom and masks. So it hides out, gets people sick in ones and twos, and waits for us to get back to normal.

Whenever we finally rid of masks and distance, then we will have a proper flu season again.
 
dad4 said:
Whenever we finally rid of masks and distance, then we will have a proper flu season again.
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I fear we will have a particularly bad flu season when things open up. It may be a game of Russian roulette guessing which flu strain will be prevalent at that time and gearing the appropriate flu vaccine with current case counts for flu as low as they currently are.
 
Hopefully CDPH comes out with updated youth sports guidance some this month.

The football lobbying could work to the other sports benefits and/or cause a field log jam in the spring as High schools scramble to cram in all the sports within short time frames.

The original YS guidance from Aug 3rd had sports classified as low, moderate, and high contact with a distinction between outdoors and indoors. Soccer was in the moderate class. Sports training and conditioning was back on if the physical distancing and other guidance was followed.

The Dec 14th update put sports in the tier jurisdiction with soccer being moved to high contact and needing the moderate or orange tier for competition to resume. Cohort restrictions where introduced to refrain from participating with more than one team over the same season or time frame.

The regional state at home orders in Dec prohibited competitions and scrimmages and out of state tournaments.

The Jan 26th update allowed competition between two team that meet the tier requirements for some sports and Inter-team scrimmages but out of state tournaments not permitted and the wearing of face covering during conditioning, practice, or competition should be implemented.

For the Feb update hoping soccer gets moved back down to moderate and somehow the comprise is reached where the tiers go away to some extent. Not sure they will completely go away but perhaps just a two layer approach: outdoor low to moderate risk at the discretion of local health and indoor or high risks another set of parameters without having the whole state or a county lumped together.
 
dad4 said:
Your search for the single cause continues. You won’t find it.

That is because it is a complicated system. There are at least six major variables: age, variant, weather, masks, distance, indoor/outdoors. You don’t get to pick one and ignore the others.

The next step is not to latch onto of those and ask “is this the primary driver?”

The next step is to get with the program.

Mask, distance, outdoors.
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I agree but when your "mitigation effort" has a 100% chance of financial ruin and mental health issues for a large segment of the society and does not seem to provide a substantial decrease in your infection/death rate you may want to change your policy. I don't doubt that masks and social distancing help but it seems like the weather has a much larger impact in when surges occur.
 
Ditto this. Zero+Zero=0

California high school football player goes viral after calling out Newsom for 'wasted final year'

"Zero offers, zero looks, zero commitments, zero time on campus, zero homecoming, zero prom, zero traditional graduation. What a wasted final year of school," tweeted Isaiah Navarro, who attends Paraclete High School in Lancaster, Calif., according to his bio.

"Worked hard and dedicated for absolutely ZERO. Big shout out to @GavinNewsom! You got what you wanted," he continued.

"I know there are thousands in my shoes across this State. I do not want anything given to me, just a chance to show my value and be an asset. Gray shirt, red shirt, grass, turf or dirt. I will play anywhere, God willing," Navarro said in a subsequent tweet.
 
MacDre said:
Funny. My grandparents lived and farmed tobacco in Danville, VA the last capital of the confederacy before it fell. I doubt there is a more conservative place in the US. Gun safety is a mandatory class in sixth grade. All of my teachers white or black were conservative Christian’s and farmed “bacca” as they call it in the south. Many kids didn’t start school until after October because they had to pull bacca. These folks were lied to and fooled. They didn’t have a clue about the adverse health consequences of bacca.
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Fine... 50-years ago. You haven’t even been able to run a cigarette ad in how many decades? What is the level of stupidity we’re suggesting here? At what point do we acknowledge any 10-year old knows smoking is deadly?
 
EOTL said:
This is crazy. The weather does not spread Covid-19, people do. The weather only makes it far more spreadable. It is all the more important to socially distance when the weather makes Covid-19 more dangerous. All of you act like this is some “it is what it is” problem.

As for last summer, it is ludicrous to claim that Governor Newsom should have known it was not a big deal for many reasons. First, it was still a big deal. Second, so little was known, and is still unknown, about the virus, so blaming any leader for being cautious even before it came clear how spreadable it is stupid. Third, even if he had been certain that things would get bad as the weather got worse, the weather gets pretty bad as fall semester wears on. Sending everyone back in person with no idea how bad the weather might make it, how virulent it would get, how mutations would make it even more spreadable, is stupid compared to trying to create an online plan with the entire summer to prepare, instead of just having to do it in November.
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“So little was known, and is still unknown, about the virus...” but Gavin good and Trump bad.
 
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