Is US Mens/Boys Soccer Dead or Dying

[whatithink]

This is so true. It's one of the biggest failures in our soccer development. Soccer coaches believe speed can't be taught, which is completely untrue. You won't go from slow 100m Olympic level, but you can dramatically improve speed through training. Even if kids were just taught how to improve first step, it would make a big difference.

I'm still taking soccer players in agility, which is still more important than straight line speed, although still very valuable.

There was a Ronaldo program a while back where they measured multiple skills of his. One was speed and he was up against an Olympic (Spanish I think) sprinter. Straight line, he lost, but they also did a zigzag, which he won. Combining Ronaldo was "faster". He is exceptional mind ...

 

[whatithink]

For speed, the math would be interesting and would vary depending on how good the program at the HS. If it's a good program, the WR might pull up the average to make up for the offensive and defensive linemen who tend to be heavier set. Really the overlap on the football field of athletes really are the WR, TE, QB, RB...maybe a DE.

Cornerbacks and safeties are built for soccer.

 

[whatithink]

I do think coaching is a big problem. I'm not saying all youth coaching is bad. But for a country our size, we need MORE top level coaches and we simply don't have it.


So since we are trying to field a USMNT team vs the best of the world, I'm going to discount most of that 1.5 million.

What we need is more academy teams. In London - I was talking to a coach who moved from there - there are like a dozen fully funded teams. Was talking to a different French guy and same thing - dozen or so fully funded teams in and around Paris.

And due to smaller size of the countries, these academy teams play each other all the time. Whereas in our big ass country, we get a national showcase a couple of times a year. Yes, LA Galaxy and LAFC play other MLS Next clubs but minus a couple other teams in each age group, it's really not a challenge.

But we can't force more academy teams... force more MLS teams... there needs to be a demand and we simply don't have the demand for it in the US... I've posted somewhere else but it's FARRRRR behind other sports in terms of popularity and money vs NFL NBA MLB and even behind college football and basketball...

So how does a country like Croatia have such success over such a long period with a population of just over 4M. Its pro league has 10 teams in it, and obviously its best talent plays in the top Euro leagues. What are they doing with a similar or smaller number of players and yet they can get to WC semis, finals etc.

 

[Grace T.]

So how does a country like Croatia have such success over such a long period with a population of just over 4M. Its pro league has 10 teams in it, and obviously its best talent plays in the top Euro leagues. What are they doing with a similar or smaller number of players and yet they can get to WC semis, finals etc.

It’s the intersection of the best athletes and academy theories. The country is fanatical about soccer and has a very robust free to play soccer tykes Rec program around ages 5-9. They are also an eu member so the academies from Germany, Italy, Austria and the Netherlands are prowling down there for prospects. And those academies also trust the Croatian academies which have a knack for developing talent. They don’t do it here because they can’t even if the fifa rules became more flexible due to the immigration laws.

 

[whatithink]

It’s the intersection of the best athletes and academy theories. The country is fanatical about soccer and has a very robust free to play soccer tykes Rec program around ages 5-9. They are also an eu member so the academies from Germany, Italy, Austria and the Netherlands are prowling down there for prospects. And those academies also trust the Croatian academies which have a knack for developing talent. They don’t do it here because they can’t even if the fifa rules became more flexible due to the immigration laws.

I don't know, I just checked a few of the better-known (to me) players and all of these played their youth soccer in Croatia - Modric, Livakovic (GK), Perisic, Gvardiol, Kovacic, Brozovic. Certainly, some do go abroad, but it doesn't seem to be that definitive. From my very brief reading, its seems that Dinamo Zagreb & Hajduk Split develop the talent, and they are renowned for that.

Certainly, Croatian are all in on soccer, but they are also all in on water polo! It seems to me that they have an excellent identification and then development system in place, with clubs relying on it to help them financially.

 

[NorCalDad]

There are 18,000 youth professional academy players in England. They play free. Of players given scholarship at 16 less than 2% are still in any of the 5 English pro leagues by 18 years old. Less than 20 players make it to the Premier League.

20 kids out of 2.4 million kids that play are world class in England.

I think England is an interesting example. During the 00/10s they were struggling internationally. My understanding is the EPL was being dominated by foreign born players. A consortium of different orgs, including EPL, formed the EPPP in the early 10s help develop home grown talent. I think in recent years that plan is finally bearing fruit given their star studded roster.

Also, no doubt soccer is more popular in England, but I don't think that 40% number is super comparable to the US. I believe there's about 15k academy players and about 1.1-1.3m grassroots. Anecdotally I've heard grassroots is starting to show some signs of what club soccer is doing in the US -- just through conversations with friends. That 40% number includes playing on playgrounds at recess, etc. That all said, the participation number in soccer is definitely higher in England, but like the 00/10s proved, they too are vulnerable to low level playing internationally.

Finally, I think without a doubt pay-to-play is a massive problem for us in the states. I think we lose far more players to pay-to-play, poor player identification, development priorities, and BS politics most clubs have. The number of players we lose there far outweighs the number of players lost to other sports. Even all that said, I still stand by that there is absolutely no reason we couldn't implement something EPPP. There's still a large enough pool to do it. The challenge, of course, is who's going to pay for it.

 

[whatithink]

I think England is an interesting example. During the 00/10s they were struggling internationally. My understanding is the EPL was being dominated by foreign born players. A consortium of different orgs, including EPL, formed the EPPP in the early 10s help develop home grown talent. I think in recent years that plan is finally bearing fruit given their star studded roster.

Also, no doubt soccer is more popular in England, but I don't think that 40% number is super comparable to the US. I believe there's about 15k academy players and about 1.1-1.3m grassroots. Anecdotally I've heard grassroots is starting to show some signs of what club soccer is doing in the US -- just through conversations with friends. That 40% number includes playing on playgrounds at recess, etc. That all said, the participation number in soccer is definitely higher in England, but like the 00/10s proved, they too are vulnerable to low level playing internationally.

Finally, I think without a doubt pay-to-play is a massive problem for us in the states. I think we lose far more players to pay-to-play, poor player identification, development priorities, and BS politics most clubs have. The number of players we lose there far outweighs the number of players lost to other sports. Even all that said, I still stand by that there is absolutely no reason we couldn't implement something EPPP. There's still a large enough pool to do it. The challenge, of course, is who's going to pay for it.

Numbers aren't the problem. For the 2024-25 season, MLS NEXT comprises 151 clubs across the United States and Canada. This includes 29 MLS academies and 122 Elite Academies, totaling 753 teams and over 16,000 players.

Looking ahead, the 2025-26 season will introduce a new competition tier, expanding MLS NEXT to over 220 clubs with more than 1,200 teams. So approx. 24,000 players, and that's allegedly the elite level only.

 

[Socal-Soccer-Dad]

So how does a country like Croatia have such success over such a long period with a population of just over 4M. Its pro league has 10 teams in it, and obviously its best talent plays in the top Euro leagues. What are they doing with a similar or smaller number of players and yet they can get to WC semis, finals etc.

It is an amazing feat from a country of just 3.8 million people...

1) it's the number 1 sport... there is a deep soccer culture and is a national obsession... it's tied to national pride and identity, especially gaining independence in the 90s

2) sort of a result of #1 but there is a strong youth development system via elite youth academies like Dinamo Zagreb which has produced world class players like Luka Modric, Mateo Kavaic, Josko Gvardiol and more. The ability to sell the developed players to other larger European leagues and teams help the academies truly focus on long term development... because there is a large payoff for getting it right... not just winning at U13 level..

3) "what doesn't kill you make you stronger" attitude... Croatian players are known for being mentally resilient and competitive. The country's recent history of war and hardship has created a kind of "grit" that comes through in sports... "Grit" is gone in America... this is a personal opinion but America's gone too soft...

4) Croatia's population may be limited but Croatia has a large global diaspora, especially in Germany, Austria, and Australia. Some top players have dual nationality and choose to play for Croatia which adds to the talent pool despite the small official population size...

5) They've had a core group of experienced players who've stuck together through multiple tournaments and through ups and downs... And a good mix of top European leagues + their domestic leagues

6) Croatian teams are often tactically disciplined, flexible, and well coached. Managers like Zlatko Dalic have emphasized team unity and smart, pragmatic play - not flashy but effective which I think counteracts how USMNT have been... lot of talent on paper (sort of) but can't play as a team... and can't beat Panama 3 consecutive matches of importance...

Okay so I got most of that from ChatGPT and just added my two cents to each but I think the reasons are spot on! haha