Is US Mens/Boys Soccer Dead or Dying

[whatithink]

This is so true. It's one of the biggest failures in our soccer development. Soccer coaches believe speed can't be taught, which is completely untrue. You won't go from slow 100m Olympic level, but you can dramatically improve speed through training. Even if kids were just taught how to improve first step, it would make a big difference.

I'm still taking soccer players in agility, which is still more important than straight line speed, although still very valuable.

There was a Ronaldo program a while back where they measured multiple skills of his. One was speed and he was up against an Olympic (Spanish I think) sprinter. Straight line, he lost, but they also did a zigzag, which he won. Combining Ronaldo was "faster". He is exceptional mind ...

 

[whatithink]

For speed, the math would be interesting and would vary depending on how good the program at the HS. If it's a good program, the WR might pull up the average to make up for the offensive and defensive linemen who tend to be heavier set. Really the overlap on the football field of athletes really are the WR, TE, QB, RB...maybe a DE.

Cornerbacks and safeties are built for soccer.

 

[whatithink]

I do think coaching is a big problem. I'm not saying all youth coaching is bad. But for a country our size, we need MORE top level coaches and we simply don't have it.


So since we are trying to field a USMNT team vs the best of the world, I'm going to discount most of that 1.5 million.

What we need is more academy teams. In London - I was talking to a coach who moved from there - there are like a dozen fully funded teams. Was talking to a different French guy and same thing - dozen or so fully funded teams in and around Paris.

And due to smaller size of the countries, these academy teams play each other all the time. Whereas in our big ass country, we get a national showcase a couple of times a year. Yes, LA Galaxy and LAFC play other MLS Next clubs but minus a couple other teams in each age group, it's really not a challenge.

But we can't force more academy teams... force more MLS teams... there needs to be a demand and we simply don't have the demand for it in the US... I've posted somewhere else but it's FARRRRR behind other sports in terms of popularity and money vs NFL NBA MLB and even behind college football and basketball...

So how does a country like Croatia have such success over such a long period with a population of just over 4M. Its pro league has 10 teams in it, and obviously its best talent plays in the top Euro leagues. What are they doing with a similar or smaller number of players and yet they can get to WC semis, finals etc.

 

[Grace T.]

So how does a country like Croatia have such success over such a long period with a population of just over 4M. Its pro league has 10 teams in it, and obviously its best talent plays in the top Euro leagues. What are they doing with a similar or smaller number of players and yet they can get to WC semis, finals etc.

It’s the intersection of the best athletes and academy theories. The country is fanatical about soccer and has a very robust free to play soccer tykes Rec program around ages 5-9. They are also an eu member so the academies from Germany, Italy, Austria and the Netherlands are prowling down there for prospects. And those academies also trust the Croatian academies which have a knack for developing talent. They don’t do it here because they can’t even if the fifa rules became more flexible due to the immigration laws.

 

[whatithink]

It’s the intersection of the best athletes and academy theories. The country is fanatical about soccer and has a very robust free to play soccer tykes Rec program around ages 5-9. They are also an eu member so the academies from Germany, Italy, Austria and the Netherlands are prowling down there for prospects. And those academies also trust the Croatian academies which have a knack for developing talent. They don’t do it here because they can’t even if the fifa rules became more flexible due to the immigration laws.

I don't know, I just checked a few of the better-known (to me) players and all of these played their youth soccer in Croatia - Modric, Livakovic (GK), Perisic, Gvardiol, Kovacic, Brozovic. Certainly, some do go abroad, but it doesn't seem to be that definitive. From my very brief reading, its seems that Dinamo Zagreb & Hajduk Split develop the talent, and they are renowned for that.

Certainly, Croatian are all in on soccer, but they are also all in on water polo! It seems to me that they have an excellent identification and then development system in place, with clubs relying on it to help them financially.

 

[NorCalDad]

There are 18,000 youth professional academy players in England. They play free. Of players given scholarship at 16 less than 2% are still in any of the 5 English pro leagues by 18 years old. Less than 20 players make it to the Premier League.

20 kids out of 2.4 million kids that play are world class in England.

I think England is an interesting example. During the 00/10s they were struggling internationally. My understanding is the EPL was being dominated by foreign born players. A consortium of different orgs, including EPL, formed the EPPP in the early 10s help develop home grown talent. I think in recent years that plan is finally bearing fruit given their star studded roster.

Also, no doubt soccer is more popular in England, but I don't think that 40% number is super comparable to the US. I believe there's about 15k academy players and about 1.1-1.3m grassroots. Anecdotally I've heard grassroots is starting to show some signs of what club soccer is doing in the US -- just through conversations with friends. That 40% number includes playing on playgrounds at recess, etc. That all said, the participation number in soccer is definitely higher in England, but like the 00/10s proved, they too are vulnerable to low level playing internationally.

Finally, I think without a doubt pay-to-play is a massive problem for us in the states. I think we lose far more players to pay-to-play, poor player identification, development priorities, and BS politics most clubs have. The number of players we lose there far outweighs the number of players lost to other sports. Even all that said, I still stand by that there is absolutely no reason we couldn't implement something EPPP. There's still a large enough pool to do it. The challenge, of course, is who's going to pay for it.

 

[whatithink]

I think England is an interesting example. During the 00/10s they were struggling internationally. My understanding is the EPL was being dominated by foreign born players. A consortium of different orgs, including EPL, formed the EPPP in the early 10s help develop home grown talent. I think in recent years that plan is finally bearing fruit given their star studded roster.

Also, no doubt soccer is more popular in England, but I don't think that 40% number is super comparable to the US. I believe there's about 15k academy players and about 1.1-1.3m grassroots. Anecdotally I've heard grassroots is starting to show some signs of what club soccer is doing in the US -- just through conversations with friends. That 40% number includes playing on playgrounds at recess, etc. That all said, the participation number in soccer is definitely higher in England, but like the 00/10s proved, they too are vulnerable to low level playing internationally.

Finally, I think without a doubt pay-to-play is a massive problem for us in the states. I think we lose far more players to pay-to-play, poor player identification, development priorities, and BS politics most clubs have. The number of players we lose there far outweighs the number of players lost to other sports. Even all that said, I still stand by that there is absolutely no reason we couldn't implement something EPPP. There's still a large enough pool to do it. The challenge, of course, is who's going to pay for it.

Numbers aren't the problem. For the 2024-25 season, MLS NEXT comprises 151 clubs across the United States and Canada. This includes 29 MLS academies and 122 Elite Academies, totaling 753 teams and over 16,000 players.

Looking ahead, the 2025-26 season will introduce a new competition tier, expanding MLS NEXT to over 220 clubs with more than 1,200 teams. So approx. 24,000 players, and that's allegedly the elite level only.

 

[Socal-Soccer-Dad]

So how does a country like Croatia have such success over such a long period with a population of just over 4M. Its pro league has 10 teams in it, and obviously its best talent plays in the top Euro leagues. What are they doing with a similar or smaller number of players and yet they can get to WC semis, finals etc.

It is an amazing feat from a country of just 3.8 million people...

1) it's the number 1 sport... there is a deep soccer culture and is a national obsession... it's tied to national pride and identity, especially gaining independence in the 90s

2) sort of a result of #1 but there is a strong youth development system via elite youth academies like Dinamo Zagreb which has produced world class players like Luka Modric, Mateo Kavaic, Josko Gvardiol and more. The ability to sell the developed players to other larger European leagues and teams help the academies truly focus on long term development... because there is a large payoff for getting it right... not just winning at U13 level..

3) "what doesn't kill you make you stronger" attitude... Croatian players are known for being mentally resilient and competitive. The country's recent history of war and hardship has created a kind of "grit" that comes through in sports... "Grit" is gone in America... this is a personal opinion but America's gone too soft...

4) Croatia's population may be limited but Croatia has a large global diaspora, especially in Germany, Austria, and Australia. Some top players have dual nationality and choose to play for Croatia which adds to the talent pool despite the small official population size...

5) They've had a core group of experienced players who've stuck together through multiple tournaments and through ups and downs... And a good mix of top European leagues + their domestic leagues

6) Croatian teams are often tactically disciplined, flexible, and well coached. Managers like Zlatko Dalic have emphasized team unity and smart, pragmatic play - not flashy but effective which I think counteracts how USMNT have been... lot of talent on paper (sort of) but can't play as a team... and can't beat Panama 3 consecutive matches of importance...

Okay so I got most of that from ChatGPT and just added my two cents to each but I think the reasons are spot on! haha

 

[Mosafie]

Numbers aren't the problem. For the 2024-25 season, MLS NEXT comprises 151 clubs across the United States and Canada. This includes 29 MLS academies and 122 Elite Academies, totaling 753 teams and over 16,000 players.

Looking ahead, the 2025-26 season will introduce a new competition tier, expanding MLS NEXT to over 220 clubs with more than 1,200 teams. So approx. 24,000 players, and that's allegedly the elite level only.

The difference is many of those MLS players are paying to be on those team. My son plays MLS next and on many team there are multiple players that lack the high level skills to be playing there. They have zero chance or the athletic ability to be world class. The cost to play MLS NEXT is prohibitive.


Most MLS Next players didn't get scouted, hand picked, and given the means to play regardless of their income.

The number of fully funded academies in England is much higher.

 

[Mosafie]

I think England is an interesting example. During the 00/10s they were struggling internationally. My understanding is the EPL was being dominated by foreign born players. A consortium of different orgs, including EPL, formed the EPPP in the early 10s help develop home grown talent. I think in recent years that plan is finally bearing fruit given their star studded roster.

Also, no doubt soccer is more popular in England, but I don't think that 40% number is super comparable to the US. I believe there's about 15k academy players and about 1.1-1.3m grassroots. Anecdotally I've heard grassroots is starting to show some signs of what club soccer is doing in the US -- just through conversations with friends. That 40% number includes playing on playgrounds at recess, etc. That all said, the participation number in soccer is definitely higher in England, but like the 00/10s proved, they too are vulnerable to low level playing internationally.

Finally, I think without a doubt pay-to-play is a massive problem for us in the states. I think we lose far more players to pay-to-play, poor player identification, development priorities, and BS politics most clubs have. The number of players we lose there far outweighs the number of players lost to other sports. Even all that said, I still stand by that there is absolutely no reason we couldn't implement something EPPP. There's still a large enough pool to do it. The challenge, of course, is who's going to pay for it.

The demographics of England has changed contributing to a change in Team demographics.

The other factor in Europe and the UK is the increase in immigrant population from 1990 (6%) to Present (20%).

There are many studies about the Africanization of European football and the increase in average speed and athleticism over time. Children of immigrants and African Academies shuttling players to Europe. FIFA even made rules to slow the sale of African minor players.

In the early 1990s there were a under 20 black players in the of the EPL. Now 45% of all EPL players are black. The number are similar at the Youth English Academies. Only 4% of the English population is Black.

 

[whatithink]

The difference is many of those MLS players are paying to be on those team. My son plays MLS next and on many team there are multiple players that lack the high level skills to be playing there. They have zero chance or the athletic ability to be world class. The cost to play MLS NEXT is prohibitive.


Most MLS Next players didn't get scouted, hand picked, and given the means to play regardless of their income.

The number of fully funded academies in England is much higher.

But you are not going to produce thousands of world class players, so you identify the best players, i.e. the ones that look like they may have a shot, scholarship them and let everyone else pay by fooling them into thinking their kid has a shot. Realistically, you are looking at less than 2% who might have a shot out of the 16000 - so a few hundred, with the rest being fillers with money.

 

[Mosafie]

But you are not going to produce thousands of world class players, so you identify the best players, i.e. the ones that look like they may have a shot, scholarship them and let everyone else pay by fooling them into thinking their kid has a shot. Realistically, you are looking at less than 2% who might have a shot out of the 16000 - so a few hundred, with the rest being fillers with money.

That's still not enough of a talent pool. England has 90 fully funded professional team academies. Many if them residential.

California has the largest talent pool in America with only a handful fully funded academies. With a population almost as large as England.

All the other MLS clubs that are pay to play and practice 3 to 5 hours a week with low quality coaches will never develope world class talent.

 

[whatithink]

That's still not enough of a talent pool. England has 90 fully funded professional team academies. Many if them residential.

California has the largest talent pool in America with only a handful fully funded academies. With a population almost as large as England.

All the other MLS clubs that are pay to play and practice 3 to 5 hours a week with low quality coaches will never develope world class talent.

The 90 kind of misrepresents though, realistically its half that. The MLS has 29 academies. Keep in mind also that a lot of this was purposely revamped in the last 15 years, plus many of these clubs are funding this through player development, i.e. its part of their business plan.

There are 4 categories,

• Category 1: Approximately 24 academies.
• Category 2: Approximately 22 academies.
• Category 3 and 4: The remaining academies, primarily associated with clubs in League One and League Two, fall into these categories.

 

[DillyDoden47]

Why play soccer if you can play American football, baseball, or basketball?

Other countries simply don't have the competition from other sport that America has. American pro soccer players make peanuts compared to other sports. Most Americans can't name a single US born soccer player.

You have to ask if the very best male American athletes actual play soccer.

When the average D1 football player now makes over $100k in NIL and soccer players have to beg to even get tuition it's tough to ignore. It's going to get even worse soon.

The women don't have to compete with American football and benefit from Title IX.

The mens are screwed. It's expensive to play as a youth. High school soccer sucks. College opportunities are gone. Pro opportunities are few.

Add to that the multi sport culture we have. Majority of our soccer players are seasonal

 

[DillyDoden47]

What I'm saying is I don't think there's an athlete drain -- the athletes are there in soccer. Again just go to any showcase/national tournament. There's a boat load of athletes. I think the issue lies elsewhere -- coaching, field time, player identification, culture..etc...

check out a high end 7 on 7 football tournament. There’s definitely an athlete drain.

 

[NorCalDad]

Add to that the multi sport culture we have. Majority of our soccer players are seasonal

I do agree the multi-sport culture has an effect without a doubt. Parents today, because the studies lean toward multi-sport being better for kids, try and make sure their kids are playing multiple sports. I'm on the fence with this one. I think the studies show that kids are more prone to overuse injuries if they specialize too early. Maybe the science is out there on this, but it just seems like there's not a heck of a lot of difference between basketball, futsal, lacrosse, and soccer from a muscle usage perspective. Like I can see if you paired swimming with soccer.

 

[NorCalDad]

check out a high end 7 on 7 football tournament. There’s definitely an athlete drain.

Flag + tackle football participation numbers are similar to Soccer numbers. Flag drops off once HS kicks in as many kids shift to tackle or go to other sports. Flag football has essentially saved tackle football as it gets around the massive drop in tackle football numbers in the younger years due to CTE concerns.

But yeah, go to any MLS Next national event -- watch the top U17/U19 teams play. Heck go to just about any USL2 or MLS Next Pro match. Tons and tons of athletes.

 

[DillyDoden47]

Flag + tackle football participation numbers are similar to Soccer numbers. Flag drops off once HS kicks in as many kids shift to tackle or go to other sports. Flag football has essentially saved tackle football as it gets around the massive drop in tackle football numbers in the younger years due to CTE concerns.

But yeah, go to any MLS Next national event -- watch the top U17/U19 teams play. Heck go to just about any USL2 or MLS Next Pro match. Tons and tons of athletes.

I’m not talking general flag football, I’m talking high end 7 on 7. Ie premium sports, California power, Florida express

What middle school soccer teams can matchup with the athleticism of the ie ducks and oc buckeyes of the world?

What hs school soccer teams can matchup with the athleticism of bosco and mater dei?

 

[NorCalDad]

I’m not talking general flag football, I’m talking high end 7 on 7. Ie premium sports, California power, Florida express

What middle school soccer teams can matchup with the athleticism of the ie ducks and oc buckeyes of the world?

What hs school soccer teams can matchup with the athleticism of bosco and mater dei?

Match up in which way?

 

[Mystery Train]

I think the OP is right. The interest is waning a bit lately. Soccer in the US is still a secondary sport. The availability of Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, etc. on streaming or satelite broadcasts, plus the popularity of FIFA video games, has certainly grown the average US sports' fan's base of soccer knowledge compared to what it was in the 80's & 90's, but at the end of the day, soccer just occupies a niche area of the American sports interests. I know plenty of people who identify as a fan of a specific Premier League team, watch them every week, and go to an occasional MLS game if an international star happens to be playing. But most of those people ALSO closely follow an NFL, NBA, MLB, or College Football team. It's a crowded landscape here in the US for sports spectating. Not nearly as much across the rest of the globe, where soccer enjoys the premium spot and maybe, maaaayyyybe, a fan of Man U also follows a rugby team, and carries a casual interest in American sports like basketball or possibly the NFL.

I think it is important to draw a distinction between the US sports spectator population and US sports athlete population. No doubt that the sport has grown here in both populations over the past few decades. But as spectators, we consume everything, so if the product sucks (like the USMNT lately) we're just going to tune out. That's not how it works in "soccer first" countries like Argentina.

Therefore, the interest levels rise and fall with the magnetism of the USMNT and their players. If Pulisic and the team has an amazing World Cup performance, expect the fickle US sports fans to get into a frenzy which will last a few years. If they lay an egg, the general sports fan will shrug and turn the channel to see how the Lakers are doing.