Is US Mens/Boys Soccer Dead or Dying

I think England is an interesting example. During the 00/10s they were struggling internationally. My understanding is the EPL was being dominated by foreign born players. A consortium of different orgs, including EPL, formed the EPPP in the early 10s help develop home grown talent. I think in recent years that plan is finally bearing fruit given their star studded roster.

Also, no doubt soccer is more popular in England, but I don't think that 40% number is super comparable to the US. I believe there's about 15k academy players and about 1.1-1.3m grassroots. Anecdotally I've heard grassroots is starting to show some signs of what club soccer is doing in the US -- just through conversations with friends. That 40% number includes playing on playgrounds at recess, etc. That all said, the participation number in soccer is definitely higher in England, but like the 00/10s proved, they too are vulnerable to low level playing internationally.

Finally, I think without a doubt pay-to-play is a massive problem for us in the states. I think we lose far more players to pay-to-play, poor player identification, development priorities, and BS politics most clubs have. The number of players we lose there far outweighs the number of players lost to other sports. Even all that said, I still stand by that there is absolutely no reason we couldn't implement something EPPP. There's still a large enough pool to do it. The challenge, of course, is who's going to pay for it.
Numbers aren't the problem. For the 2024-25 season, MLS NEXT comprises 151 clubs across the United States and Canada. This includes 29 MLS academies and 122 Elite Academies, totaling 753 teams and over 16,000 players.

Looking ahead, the 2025-26 season will introduce a new competition tier, expanding MLS NEXT to over 220 clubs with more than 1,200 teams. So approx. 24,000 players, and that's allegedly the elite level only.
 
So how does a country like Croatia have such success over such a long period with a population of just over 4M. Its pro league has 10 teams in it, and obviously its best talent plays in the top Euro leagues. What are they doing with a similar or smaller number of players and yet they can get to WC semis, finals etc.

It is an amazing feat from a country of just 3.8 million people...

1) it's the number 1 sport... there is a deep soccer culture and is a national obsession... it's tied to national pride and identity, especially gaining independence in the 90s

2) sort of a result of #1 but there is a strong youth development system via elite youth academies like Dinamo Zagreb which has produced world class players like Luka Modric, Mateo Kavaic, Josko Gvardiol and more. The ability to sell the developed players to other larger European leagues and teams help the academies truly focus on long term development... because there is a large payoff for getting it right... not just winning at U13 level..

3) "what doesn't kill you make you stronger" attitude... Croatian players are known for being mentally resilient and competitive. The country's recent history of war and hardship has created a kind of "grit" that comes through in sports... "Grit" is gone in America... this is a personal opinion but America's gone too soft...

4) Croatia's population may be limited but Croatia has a large global diaspora, especially in Germany, Austria, and Australia. Some top players have dual nationality and choose to play for Croatia which adds to the talent pool despite the small official population size...

5) They've had a core group of experienced players who've stuck together through multiple tournaments and through ups and downs... And a good mix of top European leagues + their domestic leagues

6) Croatian teams are often tactically disciplined, flexible, and well coached. Managers like Zlatko Dalic have emphasized team unity and smart, pragmatic play - not flashy but effective which I think counteracts how USMNT have been... lot of talent on paper (sort of) but can't play as a team... and can't beat Panama 3 consecutive matches of importance...

Okay so I got most of that from ChatGPT and just added my two cents to each but I think the reasons are spot on! haha :)
 
Numbers aren't the problem. For the 2024-25 season, MLS NEXT comprises 151 clubs across the United States and Canada. This includes 29 MLS academies and 122 Elite Academies, totaling 753 teams and over 16,000 players.

Looking ahead, the 2025-26 season will introduce a new competition tier, expanding MLS NEXT to over 220 clubs with more than 1,200 teams. So approx. 24,000 players, and that's allegedly the elite level only.
The difference is many of those MLS players are paying to be on those team. My son plays MLS next and on many team there are multiple players that lack the high level skills to be playing there. They have zero chance or the athletic ability to be world class. The cost to play MLS NEXT is prohibitive.


Most MLS Next players didn't get scouted, hand picked, and given the means to play regardless of their income.

The number of fully funded academies in England is much higher.
 
I think England is an interesting example. During the 00/10s they were struggling internationally. My understanding is the EPL was being dominated by foreign born players. A consortium of different orgs, including EPL, formed the EPPP in the early 10s help develop home grown talent. I think in recent years that plan is finally bearing fruit given their star studded roster.

Also, no doubt soccer is more popular in England, but I don't think that 40% number is super comparable to the US. I believe there's about 15k academy players and about 1.1-1.3m grassroots. Anecdotally I've heard grassroots is starting to show some signs of what club soccer is doing in the US -- just through conversations with friends. That 40% number includes playing on playgrounds at recess, etc. That all said, the participation number in soccer is definitely higher in England, but like the 00/10s proved, they too are vulnerable to low level playing internationally.

Finally, I think without a doubt pay-to-play is a massive problem for us in the states. I think we lose far more players to pay-to-play, poor player identification, development priorities, and BS politics most clubs have. The number of players we lose there far outweighs the number of players lost to other sports. Even all that said, I still stand by that there is absolutely no reason we couldn't implement something EPPP. There's still a large enough pool to do it. The challenge, of course, is who's going to pay for it.
The demographics of England has changed contributing to a change in Team demographics.

The other factor in Europe and the UK is the increase in immigrant population from 1990 (6%) to Present (20%).

There are many studies about the Africanization of European football and the increase in average speed and athleticism over time. Children of immigrants and African Academies shuttling players to Europe. FIFA even made rules to slow the sale of African minor players.

In the early 1990s there were a under 20 black players in the of the EPL. Now 45% of all EPL players are black. The number are similar at the Youth English Academies. Only 4% of the English population is Black.
 
The difference is many of those MLS players are paying to be on those team. My son plays MLS next and on many team there are multiple players that lack the high level skills to be playing there. They have zero chance or the athletic ability to be world class. The cost to play MLS NEXT is prohibitive.


Most MLS Next players didn't get scouted, hand picked, and given the means to play regardless of their income.

The number of fully funded academies in England is much higher.
But you are not going to produce thousands of world class players, so you identify the best players, i.e. the ones that look like they may have a shot, scholarship them and let everyone else pay by fooling them into thinking their kid has a shot. Realistically, you are looking at less than 2% who might have a shot out of the 16000 - so a few hundred, with the rest being fillers with money.
 
But you are not going to produce thousands of world class players, so you identify the best players, i.e. the ones that look like they may have a shot, scholarship them and let everyone else pay by fooling them into thinking their kid has a shot. Realistically, you are looking at less than 2% who might have a shot out of the 16000 - so a few hundred, with the rest being fillers with money.
That's still not enough of a talent pool. England has 90 fully funded professional team academies. Many if them residential.

California has the largest talent pool in America with only a handful fully funded academies. With a population almost as large as England.

All the other MLS clubs that are pay to play and practice 3 to 5 hours a week with low quality coaches will never develope world class talent.
 
That's still not enough of a talent pool. England has 90 fully funded professional team academies. Many if them residential.

California has the largest talent pool in America with only a handful fully funded academies. With a population almost as large as England.

All the other MLS clubs that are pay to play and practice 3 to 5 hours a week with low quality coaches will never develope world class talent.
The 90 kind of misrepresents though, realistically its half that. The MLS has 29 academies. Keep in mind also that a lot of this was purposely revamped in the last 15 years, plus many of these clubs are funding this through player development, i.e. its part of their business plan.

There are 4 categories,
  • Category 1: Approximately 24 academies.
  • Category 2: Approximately 22 academies.
  • Category 3 and 4: The remaining academies, primarily associated with clubs in League One and League Two, fall into these categories.
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Why play soccer if you can play American football, baseball, or basketball?

Other countries simply don't have the competition from other sport that America has. American pro soccer players make peanuts compared to other sports. Most Americans can't name a single US born soccer player.

You have to ask if the very best male American athletes actual play soccer.

When the average D1 football player now makes over $100k in NIL and soccer players have to beg to even get tuition it's tough to ignore. It's going to get even worse soon.

The women don't have to compete with American football and benefit from Title IX.

The mens are screwed. It's expensive to play as a youth. High school soccer sucks. College opportunities are gone. Pro opportunities are few.
Add to that the multi sport culture we have. Majority of our soccer players are seasonal
 
What I'm saying is I don't think there's an athlete drain -- the athletes are there in soccer. Again just go to any showcase/national tournament. There's a boat load of athletes. I think the issue lies elsewhere -- coaching, field time, player identification, culture..etc...
check out a high end 7 on 7 football tournament. There’s definitely an athlete drain.
 
Add to that the multi sport culture we have. Majority of our soccer players are seasonal

I do agree the multi-sport culture has an effect without a doubt. Parents today, because the studies lean toward multi-sport being better for kids, try and make sure their kids are playing multiple sports. I'm on the fence with this one. I think the studies show that kids are more prone to overuse injuries if they specialize too early. Maybe the science is out there on this, but it just seems like there's not a heck of a lot of difference between basketball, futsal, lacrosse, and soccer from a muscle usage perspective. Like I can see if you paired swimming with soccer.
 
check out a high end 7 on 7 football tournament. There’s definitely an athlete drain.

Flag + tackle football participation numbers are similar to Soccer numbers. Flag drops off once HS kicks in as many kids shift to tackle or go to other sports. Flag football has essentially saved tackle football as it gets around the massive drop in tackle football numbers in the younger years due to CTE concerns.

But yeah, go to any MLS Next national event -- watch the top U17/U19 teams play. Heck go to just about any USL2 or MLS Next Pro match. Tons and tons of athletes.
 
Flag + tackle football participation numbers are similar to Soccer numbers. Flag drops off once HS kicks in as many kids shift to tackle or go to other sports. Flag football has essentially saved tackle football as it gets around the massive drop in tackle football numbers in the younger years due to CTE concerns.

But yeah, go to any MLS Next national event -- watch the top U17/U19 teams play. Heck go to just about any USL2 or MLS Next Pro match. Tons and tons of athletes.
I’m not talking general flag football, I’m talking high end 7 on 7. Ie premium sports, California power, Florida express

What middle school soccer teams can matchup with the athleticism of the ie ducks and oc buckeyes of the world?

What hs school soccer teams can matchup with the athleticism of bosco and mater dei?
 
I’m not talking general flag football, I’m talking high end 7 on 7. Ie premium sports, California power, Florida express

What middle school soccer teams can matchup with the athleticism of the ie ducks and oc buckeyes of the world?

What hs school soccer teams can matchup with the athleticism of bosco and mater dei?

Match up in which way?
 
I think the OP is right. The interest is waning a bit lately. Soccer in the US is still a secondary sport. The availability of Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, etc. on streaming or satelite broadcasts, plus the popularity of FIFA video games, has certainly grown the average US sports' fan's base of soccer knowledge compared to what it was in the 80's & 90's, but at the end of the day, soccer just occupies a niche area of the American sports interests. I know plenty of people who identify as a fan of a specific Premier League team, watch them every week, and go to an occasional MLS game if an international star happens to be playing. But most of those people ALSO closely follow an NFL, NBA, MLB, or College Football team. It's a crowded landscape here in the US for sports spectating. Not nearly as much across the rest of the globe, where soccer enjoys the premium spot and maybe, maaaayyyybe, a fan of Man U also follows a rugby team, and carries a casual interest in American sports like basketball or possibly the NFL.

I think it is important to draw a distinction between the US sports spectator population and US sports athlete population. No doubt that the sport has grown here in both populations over the past few decades. But as spectators, we consume everything, so if the product sucks (like the USMNT lately) we're just going to tune out. That's not how it works in "soccer first" countries like Argentina.

Therefore, the interest levels rise and fall with the magnetism of the USMNT and their players. If Pulisic and the team has an amazing World Cup performance, expect the fickle US sports fans to get into a frenzy which will last a few years. If they lay an egg, the general sports fan will shrug and turn the channel to see how the Lakers are doing.
 
I’m not talking general flag football, I’m talking high end 7 on 7. Ie premium sports, California power, Florida express

What middle school soccer teams can matchup with the athleticism of the ie ducks and oc buckeyes of the world?

What hs school soccer teams can matchup with the athleticism of bosco and mater dei?
My nephew plays te for a top 20 school. It’s very different than the soccer process. He used to be in a very high skilled sport and walked onto football in high school purely based on body type. He just got a big 10 offer despite having very little footage and having played very few minutes for his top 20 school sitting behind seniors (though he did shift to varsity as a sophomore and skipped the frosh team altogether). He does 7v 7 but no one takes the practice schedule as seriously as soccer (it’s a once a weekend thing). Very little by way of skills training. The training mostly comes in diet and straight up exercise for which he puts my soccer player to shame.

Soccer training is very iq and skill based. It requires a different kind of dedication. Yes soccer is also athletic and could benefit from the entrance of those top 20 school football athletes. But again it’s not 1 to 1. You have to knock out the lower level schools. You have to knock out those that aren’t willing to grind the skills (partially why they are attracted to football…with the exception of the qbs which start very young it’s something you can jump into and without a large investment if the body is right). You have to knock out the positions like lineman that don’t translate into a running sport. And you have to knock out the lower play iq players (which becomes a critical factor in the move from collegiate football to pro). While it would potentially widen the pool of finding a generational talent like Messi necessary to win the World Cup, it doesn’t explain why we aren’t able to put together a supporting squad in contention for the quarter finals of the cup every year. We have enough athletes for that just based on the Latino community alone.
 
My nephew plays te for a top 20 school. It’s very different than the soccer process. He used to be in a very high skilled sport and walked onto football in high school purely based on body type. He just got a big 10 offer despite having very little footage and having played very few minutes for his top 20 school sitting behind seniors (though he did shift to varsity as a sophomore and skipped the frosh team altogether). He does 7v 7 but no one takes the practice schedule as seriously as soccer (it’s a once a weekend thing). Very little by way of skills training. The training mostly comes in diet and straight up exercise for which he puts my soccer player to shame.

Soccer training is very iq and skill based. It requires a different kind of dedication. Yes soccer is also athletic and could benefit from the entrance of those top 20 school football athletes. But again it’s not 1 to 1. You have to knock out the lower level schools. You have to knock out those that aren’t willing to grind the skills (partially why they are attracted to football…with the exception of the qbs which start very young it’s something you can jump into and without a large investment if the body is right). You have to knock out the positions like lineman that don’t translate into a running sport. And you have to knock out the lower play iq players (which becomes a critical factor in the move from collegiate football to pro). While it would potentially widen the pool of finding a generational talent like Messi necessary to win the World Cup, it doesn’t explain why we aren’t able to put together a supporting squad in contention for the quarter finals of the cup every year. We have enough athletes for that just based on the Latino community alone.
Congratulations to your nephew! Is he class of 2028? Top 20 in state or national? I’m a big cfb fan

It would 100 percent widen the talent pool. I’m obviously not saying every football player would take every spot. Simply stating our best god given athletes are not playing soccer here. Take the same talent pool and put them in a soccer first country and you’re good to go.

Mentioned earlier another big issue is the multi sport culture we have. Cuts the talent pool down even further.

Side note, I struggled finding a place that sold soccer trading cards. Baseball/football cards were easy to find.
 
Congratulations to your nephew! Is he class of 2028? Top 20 in state or national? I’m a big cfb fan

It would 100 percent widen the talent pool. I’m obviously not saying every football player would take every spot. Simply stating our best god given athletes are not playing soccer here. Take the same talent pool and put them in a soccer first country and you’re good to go.

Mentioned earlier another big issue is the multi sport culture we have. Cuts the talent pool down even further.

Side note, I struggled finding a place that sold soccer trading cards. Baseball/football cards were easy to find.

Let's also not forget CTE concerns has had a massive impact on football participation. I played pop warner growing up in SoCal. It was super popular back then. In NorCal it's almost non-existent in some areas. Tackle football is losing a lot of athletes as a result -- maybe not to soccer, but they're going somewhere.

I could get behind the argument "Not all of the best athletes are playing the same sport". The idea that American football players are the optimal athletes really has no bite to it. The demands of playing a high level 90 minute soccer game far outweighs anything the NFL puts on the field. That's also true when comparing the NBA to the NFL. It's not even close. If the average height of an NBA player was closer to the average height of an EPL player (they're not close)....then I could see that argument....plus Europe has a strong basketball presence these days.

At the end of the day -- it has nothing to do with player pool. That's just a lost leader that distracts from the real problems.
 
Some interesting statistics on boy's/men's side as compared to the women's side in terms of college recruits from California.

This is according to TopDrawerSoccer:

2025 Men's College Commitments (all divisions): 89
2025 Women's College Commitments (all divisions): 183
2026 Men's College Commitments (all divisions): 18
2026 Women's College Commitments (all divisions): 131

Obviously the commitments will grow for both years particularly for 2026 men's, but it gives you a good idea of the odds you face as a California boy making a college roster. I will also say that the quality of colleges on the girls side is far more impressive than the boys. Note that the college scholarships for D1 for 2025/26 are the same for both genders (28).
 
Some interesting statistics on boy's/men's side as compared to the women's side in terms of college recruits from California.

This is according to TopDrawerSoccer:

2025 Men's College Commitments (all divisions): 89
2025 Women's College Commitments (all divisions): 183
2026 Men's College Commitments (all divisions): 18
2026 Women's College Commitments (all divisions): 131

Obviously the commitments will grow for both years particularly for 2026 men's, but it gives you a good idea of the odds you face as a California boy making a college roster. I will also say that the quality of colleges on the girls side is far more impressive than the boys. Note that the college scholarships for D1 for 2025/26 are the same for both genders (28).
Nationally its even more dramatic:

2025 Men's College Commitments (all divisions): 691
2025 Women's College Commitments (all divisions): 1,438

Keep in mind that it doesn't mean that these kids are getting scholarship.
 
At the end of the day -- it has nothing to do with player pool. That's just a lost leader that distracts from the real problems.
Hard disagree. You can repeat yourself until the cows come home - it still doesn't change the fact that it's missing the point. There are plenty of oft-repeated problems with US soccer - but not having the best athletes even choose to be in the pool in the first place from the earliest ages is always going to be a big one when talking about national (and other top 0.1% teams).
 
Hard disagree. You can repeat yourself until the cows come home - it still doesn't change the fact that it's missing the point. There are plenty of oft-repeated problems with US soccer - but not having the best athletes even choose to be in the pool in the first place from the earliest ages is always going to be a big one when talking about national (and other top 0.1% teams).
Found this interesting video. Soccer is the national past time of Brazil. There's no other sports distraction there (at least any more than basketball or skiing is in Europe). They are also the second most populous country in the Americas so clearly no issue there with the player pool size. Yet, Brazil seems to be struggling to find its former success. So what changed?

I think the player pool is part of the answer for why we can't find a generational talent like Messi. It's not the answer for why we can't beat Panama or Canada. What changed for Brazil?

The Europeans developed an academy system. The top Brazilian players get selected and play for European academies (because of the Portugal connection, and less reciprocal restrictions on immigration, it's easier for them to play in Europe). But when they come back to play for the national team the coaches are making them try to play the Brazilian game and dribbling just doesn't matter as much anymore.

It all comes back to the academies. We have a problem on the front end (our academies start late). We also have a problem on the backend (we have no clear way to transition a U18 academy player to the pros....in an ideal world there should be NO colleges coaches at the GA cup....every academy kid that's scouted for college is a failure of the US system where in Europe they'd be playing lower level pro ball)

 
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