Get ready folks

[whatithink]

Kind of funny the rational behind both changes was/is to appeal to a certain type of recruiter.

As I said previously, it never made sense for ECNL, but they went along as US Soccer mandated it. They obviously feel a lot stronger now to be able to even propose a reversal. Generally, it makes more sense imv, as

• Kids can play with their school friends and therefore peer group. This is applies at every level from rec through competitive. Naturally, this is the over whelming majority of the 3M youth soccer players out there.
• At the highest level, the majority of kids are trying for college and it aligns perfectly with that.
• For the most elite, i.e. the ones US Soccer are interested in 0.001%, i.e. the ones that may go pro or may make a USNT roster U15 onward, it doesn't matter, as they should already be playing up at least one age group if not two (otherwise they are not elite).

 

[SuperSoccerStar]

And I can guarantee that there will be a group of parents that say their 16 year old freshman should be able to play with kids in their grade.

And there's really no downside in ECNL allowing this to occur. Their teams will get stronger and they'll be unbeatable. If ECNLs ultimate goal is college recruitment what's the difference if 16 year old freshman play with their grade? The end goal is being recruited to play in college. Colleges don't care if high school seniors are 18 or 20 they just want players that can perform.

See how it works? Congratulations you're back to why US Soccer switched to calender year groupings.

exactly

 

[Thatonedad]

Why would RAE be worse under BY vs SY? Or what was the reason that the study stated for the difference? I thought MLS Next was going to solve RAE with Bio Banding?

I haven’t seen the study it was only mentioned to me. But it was a 2 year study I think 2021-2023? looking at ages U11-U18 and Q4 was substantially underrepresented and Q1 was substantially over represented. However at the National team level U15-19 RAE seemed to be less prominent. However the majority of leagues outside of national teams it was very lopsided. BY was meant to fix RAE at the lowest level and up and the data shows that is not the case.

This change has been in the works since DA broke up and now SY supporters have data as well as many soccer operators on their side.

I don’t know that USSF would be thrilled at the idea of changing back but it “sounds like” if it’s determined by the majority of soccer operators that SY/GY would be better for the masses it will then fall on USSF to say we actually don’t really care about the majority we really only care about the 1% and I’m not sure if that’s a good look or stance to take.

 

[Carlsbad7]

exactly

I actually believe in players playing up against players 2-3 years older than they are. Assuming they're able.

Redshirting is different, players aren't playing up for higher level competition. A group of parents and players are expoiting the rules to play down against younger less physically developed competition. You see it in football all the time. To the point now that it's common to hold back players for the advantage.

Once ECNL switches to SY redshirting will be the next thing parents push for. Like I said before this is because there's no downside for ECNL not to allow redshirting players. Colleges don't care how old players are when they recruit them. All they care about is the year they graduate.

 

[Thatonedad]

I actually believe in players playing up against players 2-3 years older than they are. Assuming they're able.

Redshirting is different, players aren't playing up for higher level competition. A group of parents and players are expoiting the rules to play down against younger less physically developed competition. You see it in football all the time. To the point now that it's common to hold back players for the advantage.

Once ECNL switches to SY redshirting will be the next thing parents push for. Like I said before this is because there's no downside for ECNL not to allow redshirting players. Colleges don't care how old players are when they recruit them. All they care about is the year they graduate.

Yes, this is true and from what I understand the push is for new cutoff dates but I would not be surprised if ECNL goes with grad year for high school ages if it’s decided new cutoff off dates are better for the masses.

By the time kids get to high school the difference of a year or so isn’t as substantial as the younger age groups. If you’re playing at the ECNL level most of those kids can handle playing high school varsity soccer as freshman. I don’t think they would determine it to be an unfair advantage as that would imply others could not red shirt also.

If a kid in high school struggles playing against seniors as a junior/soph playing Juniors or seniors. They probably aren’t going to be recruited for college.

 

[watfly]

I haven’t seen the study it was only mentioned to me. But it was a 2 year study I think 2021-2023? looking at ages U11-U18 and Q4 was substantially underrepresented and Q1 was substantially over represented. However at the National team level U15-19 RAE seemed to be less prominent. However the majority of leagues outside of national teams it was very lopsided. BY was meant to fix RAE at the lowest level and up and the data shows that is not the case.

This change has been in the works since DA broke up and now SY supporters have data as well as many soccer operators on their side.

I don’t know that USSF would be thrilled at the idea of changing back but it “sounds like” if it’s determined by the majority of soccer operators that SY/GY would be better for the masses it will then fall on USSF to say we actually don’t really care about the majority we really only care about the 1% and I’m not sure if that’s a good look or stance to take.

I wonder how much the US youth clubs focus on size plays into this equation?

The current USMNT roster couldn't be spread more evenly 6 Q1, 5 Q2, 4 Q3, 6 Q4.

 

[Carlsbad7]

Yes, this is true and from what I understand the push is for new cutoff dates but I would not be surprised if ECNL goes with grad year for high school ages if it’s decided new cutoff off dates are better for the masses.

By the time kids get to high school the difference of a year or so isn’t as substantial as the younger age groups. If you’re playing at the ECNL level most of those kids can handle playing high school varsity soccer as freshman. I don’t think they would determine it to be an unfair advantage as that would imply others could not red shirt also.

If a kid in high school struggles playing against seniors as a junior/soph playing Juniors or seniors. They probably aren’t going to be recruited for college.

Wait a minute...

You've been pushing for the school year change and using "trapped players" getting screwed into playing up as the justification.

Now you're saying that going strait school year with no restrictions isn't a bad thing because by high school everyone is the same size.

You are so transparent it's ridiculous.

 

[Thatonedad]

Wait a minute...

You've been pushing for the school year change and using "trapped players" getting screwed into playing up as the justification.

Now you're saying that going strait school year with no restrictions isn't a bad thing because by high school everyone is the same size.

You are so transparent it's ridiculous.

I’m not pushing for anything? My kids would actually be on the negative end of a change. I was just speculating on conversations Ive heard nothing definitive in that statement.

Also the issue with the trapped players is they are younger and get the small end of the stick their whole soccer playing careers. Which is the thought process of US soccer club members and ECNL.

I understand that it is unfair if redshirt holdback is playing with freshman when they should be a sophomore but the way they see it is we already have that problem and a much larger level with birth year. As well as many other problems with the birth year system.

You get very defensive when I’m just saying what I hear. Not telling you to personally attack you or your views.

 

[Thatonedad]

I wonder how much the US youth clubs focus on size plays into this equation?

The current USMNT roster couldn't be spread more evenly 6 Q1, 5 Q2, 4 Q3, 6 Q4.

Yes I think I mentioned that in my statement. At the National team level youth specifically they did not see RAE as a large issue. It was however very apparent in the majority of the youth soccer ages. Ages 10-18 I believe.
It falls back on the issue is BY best for “everyone” Rec up to academy. The data collected strongly says no. Which is why soccer operators have been able to get momentum for a vote. I believe ECNL even has their own collected data which I believe ECNL teams are around 70% Q1/2 U13-U17

 

[Carlsbad7]

I’m not pushing for anything? My kids would actually be on the negative end of a change. I was just speculating on conversations Ive heard nothing definitive in that statement.

Also the issue with the trapped players is they are younger and get the small end of the stick their whole soccer playing careers. Which is the thought process of US soccer club members and ECNL.

I understand that it is unfair if redshirt holdback is playing with freshman when they should be a sophomore but the way they see it is we already have that problem and a much larger level with birth year. As well as many other problems with the birth year system.

You get very defensive when I’m just saying what I hear. Not telling you to personally attack you or your views.

It's not you...

However It does get annoying when there's a very obvious contingent pushing for SY only because it will benefit their kid.

If ECNL is able to get other leagues to switch from CY to SY so be it. I just hope if the change occurs everyone does it together so clubs preserve cross league play.

 

[Carlsbad7]

Yes I think I mentioned that in my statement. At the National team level youth specifically they did not see RAE as a large issue. It was however very apparent in the majority of the youth soccer ages. Ages 10-18 I believe.
It falls back on the issue is BY best for “everyone” Rec up to academy. The data collected strongly says no. Which is why soccer operators have been able to get momentum for a vote. I believe ECNL even has their own collected data which I believe ECNL teams are around 70% Q1/2 U13-U17

What data are you referring to?

You make wild statements with nothing to back them up.

 

[whatithink]

Yes, this is true and from what I understand the push is for new cutoff dates but I would not be surprised if ECNL goes with grad year for high school ages if it’s decided new cutoff off dates are better for the masses.

By the time kids get to high school the difference of a year or so isn’t as substantial as the younger age groups. If you’re playing at the ECNL level most of those kids can handle playing high school varsity soccer as freshman. I don’t think they would determine it to be an unfair advantage as that would imply others could not red shirt also.

If a kid in high school struggles playing against seniors as a junior/soph playing Juniors or seniors. They probably aren’t going to be recruited for college.

That depends on the puberty lottery and it certainly differs between boys and girls. A freshman boy will not likely be able to compete against seniors. I know my boy grew 7 inches and put on 50 lbs in HS. There's zero chance any freshman in his HS could compete with him physically in his senior year - he would have mowed right through them, ability being superfluous - and he was not "football" big by any measure. Either way, HS has always been different with any kid good enough, in the confines of that particular HS, being able to play.

Girls are different, but the puberty lottery still comes into play.

Irrespective, I assume they (ECNL, i.e. club ball) are looking to revert back to the prior system, where there was no such thing as red shirting, i.e. teams were determined by BD with the range being from 8/1 to 7/31, so there was no 16 yo vs 14 yo type scenario.

 

[whatithink]

What data are you referring to?

You make wild statements with nothing to back them up.

There has literally been books written about the relative age effect (RAE), its not a new concept, with data from multiple sports.

 

[CAZZZ]

It's not you...

However It does get annoying when there's a very obvious contingent pushing for SY only because it will benefit their kid.

If ECNL is able to get other leagues to switch from CY to SY so be it. I just hope if the change occurs everyone does it together so clubs preserve cross league play.

ECNL does not need to do cross-league play. Surf ECNL teams rarely, if ever, play against non-ECNL teams. ECNL prefers to do the GY to benefit their core customers (college coaches) at the cost of missing 1/2 of games against non-ECNL teams.

 

[Derek1800]

What level of play are these great kids being left behind because they were born Sept thru December?

So are your saying a player with "great instincts and talent" is too small and too slow and they are being left behind? What does that mean? They are not making the top team like ECNL for example because they are a 2010 player right now that is in the 8th grade?

So your telling me that a player is on 2010 ECRL team then if the rules change being the older kid on the 2011 age team would make them bigger and faster and they would then be on the 2011 ECNL team? I don't buy it.

Changing all this around for these "trapped" players is absolutely ridiculous. I think there are parents out there who have kids that are "trapped" and they are just excited for the rules to change because they will get an extra year of soccer and they are going to be able to move down a year in club and they think it will be better for their kid and increase their chances for whatever glory they are trying to obtain.

I guess you could count out any involvement in the national level system then because they are birth year based and there's no way (unless your a unicorn and you would already be in the pipeline) that this "trapped" player that just moved down a years level of team would then make the 2010 camp that's full of players that are on the club teams that are a year above them.

At the end of the day life isn't fair. We cant just keep changing the rules because of it.

You are making arguments off ECNL age groups which is the opposite of what I am personally concerned about from my experience. The problem starts a lot earlier than ECNL or ECRL and is more problematic at earlier ages. In my opinion, the biggest challenge above Pay to Play with US soccer is the lack of quality coaches. Even top clubs mentioned in this thread in my opinion have very few strong coaches. So when a club has at most 1 great coach per age group, the kids at U7-U11 suffering from RAE do not make the top teams at top clubs and thus continue to see "the gaps" increase due to lack of the same quality coaching if they even continue. Also at young age groups, playing with your peers makes the game much more enjoyable and increases commitment. This doesn't matter much if you are on a top ECNL team and is also unlikely to be a deciding factor.

I would be totally fine if they keep ECNL the same for current cohort and grandfathered in this change. The important thing to fix is the start of the funnel. Not an already biased funnel that is where it is today and near the end. I dont think that nets much change nor is where the value is at except for college recruiting (which I dont care much about).

 

[Thatonedad]

What data are you referring to?

You make wild statements with nothing to back them up.

I guess US club soccer has data from a study that was conducted by a third party contributor. It is all part of their power point they are currently using. It could be public info id have to ask? If I can get it I will post here.

In regards to red shirt players if ECNL goes GY currently in mlsn a January 2011 boy can play 2012s if he qualifies with bio banding. So the difference between him and a Dec 2012 kid is almost two years which has been going on for a while. Kids who graduate and goto college or junior college redshirt or grey shirt and play another year of ECNL U19 which again takes opportunities away from trapped players left behind. So you have juniors competing against college freshman. GY is my guess for ECNL grades 9-12. Idk if it will be immediate for fall 25.

 

[Carlsbad7]

I guess US club soccer has data from a study that was conducted by a third party contributor. It is all part of their power point they are currently using. It could be public info id have to ask? If I can get it I will post here.

In regards to red shirt players if ECNL goes GY currently in mlsn a January 2011 boy can play 2012s if he qualifies with bio banding. So the difference between him and a Dec 2012 kid is almost two years which has been going on for a while. Kids who graduate and goto college or junior college redshirt or grey shirt and play another year of ECNL U19 which again takes opportunities away from trapped players left behind. So you have juniors competing against college freshman. GY is my guess for ECNL grades 9-12. Idk if it will be immediate for fall 25.

So now there's deck with data provided to US Club Soccer with data that you/they want to relay.

As I said before SHOW ME THE BEEF or shutup. You might be correct you might also be making everything up. Nobody knows.

 

[Carlsbad7]

ECNL does not need to do cross-league play. Surf ECNL teams rarely, if ever, play against non-ECNL teams. ECNL prefers to do the GY to benefit their core customers (college coaches) at the cost of missing 1/2 of games against non-ECNL teams.

Surf Cup losing 60-80% of its participants is a lot of money to walk away from just so a small number players can play with kids in their school grade.

 

[Carlsbad7]

There has literally been books written about the relative age effect (RAE), its not a new concept, with data from multiple sports.

So let's play the RAE effect out if ECNL goes to SY and GA stays at CY.

ECNL players will go from Jan 1st birthdays to Aug 1st.

GA players will remain Jan 1st

Trapped GA players will get recruited by ECNL teams (because they can play down a year) and ECNL players that were formerly king of the hill with a Jan birthday will go to GA teams because they're now middle of the pack on ECNL teams.

 

[watfly]

There has literally been books written about the relative age effect (RAE), its not a new concept, with data from multiple sports.

I don't have a dog in this fight, other than I believe its irrelevant whether its BY or SY. RAE appears to be temporary and its not like kids that are born in the 2nd half of they year are left out of Club soccer. They might not be on the top team but clubs are still happy to take your money for the 2nd team. Whether your on the 1st team or 2nd team at 6-12 yo is largely meaningless for your MLS Next or ECNL opportunities as a teen. Also as Thatonedad said the RAE appears to disappear at the National Team level. The bigger problem with youth soccer is coaches preference for size over skill which I believe is a symptom of the "win now" mentality. To me changing the age cutoff is like "rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic".

 

[fms]

redshirting? it's the exact opposite for the top players.

look across the country or even locally and the elite kids are training up/with pros/Wave, going pro, or reclassifying and going to college early.