Get ready folks

Messi>CR7 said:
8 years after switching from SY to BY to align with international soccer, USWNT is still at the top of FIFA world ranking, and USMNT is still mediocre.

Why break up the roster of every single youth team again if there was no quantifiable gain or loss? Perhaps US Soccer president has kids with December birthdates? :)
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:)

Honestly, outside of overzealous parents...who cares about youth soccer rankings?

Even if MLS Next stays BY...there will be a shift in rosters towards Aug-Dec bdays. MLS Academies start at u13-u15...by then the RAE and self fulfilling prophecy have already taken its toll. MLS acadmies are choosing players from top teams (which will consist almost entirely of Aug-Dec bdays). Look at the rosters now...80-90% born in first 6 months (some 100%). No reason to ignore half the kids.

The quantifiable loss was a decrease in numbers they attributed to not playing with class mates and the problems with trapped players.

If nothing else..a good reflection on how we identify 'talent'. Maybe should change it every 2 years.
 
Carlsbad7 said:
If you want numbers to be useful they need to be "correct".

A 6 month difference in the age between 2 different groups of players to me needs to be accounted for to make the data presented valuable.

If this type of thing isn't accounted for in the way data is presented large numbers of users will discount the rankings app as biased and unusable.

If you notice I'm only talking about ranking of teams against other teams. Individual team against team predictive outcomes would not need a power addition because you want an analysis of the actual result not what would happen if both teams had players the same age.

After thinking about this I've talked myself into presenting the data as BY-G2010 and SY-G2010 is the way to go. Although it would be nice to have all teams in a single G2010 group it's just easier to keep everything as and not mess around with adding a power result.
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I disagree with both your premise and your proposed solution. I guess we'll see what happens.
 
Mosafie said:
The old rankings would become irrelevant with SY change. Teams will change because most teams will be a combination of two birth year.

8/1/2013-->7/31/2012
8/1/2012--->7/31/2011
8/1/2011--->7/31/2010.
Etc.

Practically every team will change. Some will become better others will get worse. Regardless every team will have be reranked.
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And this would happen without much effort or trouble on the app side. Once the new team has 6 - 8 games, they are already likely to be rated. There is no person in a back room that has to compile and tabulate all of this - it's just automated data feeds.
 
Messi>CR7 said:
8 years after switching from SY to BY to align with international soccer, USWNT is still at the top of FIFA world ranking, and USMNT is still mediocre.

Why break up the roster of every single youth team again if there was no quantifiable gain or loss? Perhaps US Soccer president has kids with December birthdates? :)
Click to expand...

Mosafie said:
The old rankings would become irrelevant with SY change. Teams will change because most teams will be a combination of two birth year.

8/1/2013-->7/31/2012
8/1/2012--->7/31/2011
8/1/2011--->7/31/2010.
Etc.

Practically every team will change. Some will become better others will get worse. Regardless every team will have be reranked.

Youth soccer rankings don't really matter.
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The change to SY will only affect clubs’ B teams. The A team roster will remain unchanged. If a late December birthday player is a starter on a team, he won’t want to change teams to play with the younger kids.
Do people really care that one B team used to rank 140th on SR and now they are 178th?
 
It's still speculative. If in that same club, a player from the now 1 year older team comes down and the player who was a clear starter isn't quite so clear, it is impossible to predict all of the potential outcomes. Each player (along with the club), of all age groups, would be making what they believe to be the best individual decision.
 
Jamisfoes said:
The change to SY will only affect clubs’ B teams. The A team roster will remain unchanged. If a late December birthday player is a starter on a team, he won’t want to change teams to play with the younger kids.
Do people really care that one B team used to rank 140th on SR and now they are 178th?
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I wholeheartedly disagree with you. There will be many trapped players on RL teams that will displace NL players on the teams a year below them. Anyone saying any different is kidding themselves.
 
TeamDadJokes said:
I wholeheartedly disagree with you. There will be many trapped players on RL teams that will displace NL players on the teams a year below them. Anyone saying any different is kidding themselves.
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1st team players will have competition for roster sports from 1st, 2nd, and 3rd etc team trapped players that have been playing with players that are year older.

It's going to cause a significant amount of reshuffling.
 
Carlsbad7 said:
1st team players will have competition for roster sports from 1st, 2nd, and 3rd etc team trapped players that have been playing with players that are year older.

It's going to cause a significant amount of reshuffling.
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I disagree. If trapped players are good they would be on the top team already. A few months don’t make that much difference.
 
Jamisfoes said:
I disagree. If trapped players are good they would be on the top team already. A few months don’t make that much difference.
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If you were a coach and an entirely new spectrum of players became available would you limit your search to one team only?

I'm sure some will do this but it just depends on how much you want to dig through the bin to find a player worth rostering
 
On the Girls side I think the benefit/improvement of rosters relative to others will skew towards Top Clubs Top Teams (for SoCal: Blues ,Slammers, Surf, and maybe Legends and Beach) and mixed results everywhere else. I have a kiddo who plays up at a "next/2nd tier" club and the trapped player parents are all talking about going to try to switch to the Top Tier Club Top Teams in the New Year. I told them literally every trapped player parent from every club and tier will be thinking the same, good luck! 3-5 roster spots will open up on those 11v11 teams if all of the current trapped players would move down to their SY group's top team add another 3-5 for those now on the "back half" of the SY cut-off that might get moved down to the SY 2nd team to make room for acquisitions.
 
Random said:
On the Girls side I think the benefit/improvement of rosters relative to others will skew towards Top Clubs Top Teams (for SoCal: Blues ,Slammers, Surf, and maybe Legends and Beach) and mixed results everywhere else. I have a kiddo who plays up at a "next/2nd tier" club and the trapped player parents are all talking about going to try to switch to the Top Tier Club Top Teams in the New Year. I told them literally every trapped player parent from every club and tier will be thinking the same, good luck! 3-5 roster spots will open up on those 11v11 teams if all of the current trapped players would move down to their SY group's top team add another 3-5 for those now on the "back half" of the SY cut-off that might get moved down to the SY 2nd team to make room for acquisitions.
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This is already happening...
 
Random said:
On the Girls side I think the benefit/improvement of rosters relative to others will skew towards Top Clubs Top Teams (for SoCal: Blues ,Slammers, Surf, and maybe Legends and Beach) and mixed results everywhere else. I have a kiddo who plays up at a "next/2nd tier" club and the trapped player parents are all talking about going to try to switch to the Top Tier Club Top Teams in the New Year. I told them literally every trapped player parent from every club and tier will be thinking the same, good luck! 3-5 roster spots will open up on those 11v11 teams if all of the current trapped players would move down to their SY group's top team add another 3-5 for those now on the "back half" of the SY cut-off that might get moved down to the SY 2nd team to make room for acquisitions.
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A lot of trapped players are going to be disappointed. If you have the technical skills and determination, size doesn’t matter in soccer.
 
Jamisfoes said:
A lot of trapped players are going to be disappointed. If you have the technical skills and determination, size doesn’t matter in soccer.
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Absolutely not true at least on the boys side from age 8-16. If you put the top team (academy, mls next, or pre whatever) next to the 3rd team of the club, the one thing that is immediately apparent is the boys on the top team are all bigger.

Ps hearing U.S. soccer is voting November 22. It will still be subject to governing bodies and hearing mls is opposed even if U.S. soccer is a yes
 
Grace T. said:
Absolutely not true at least on the boys side from age 8-16. If you put the top team (academy, mls next, or pre whatever) next to the 3rd team of the club, the one thing that is immediately apparent is the boys on the top team are all bigger.

Ps hearing U.S. soccer is voting November 22. It will still be subject to governing bodies and hearing mls is opposed even if U.S. soccer is a yes
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It’s a B team mentality to use birth month as an excuse for not getting on the A team. Ask any A team player, they all feel they can play up a year.
 
Jamisfoes said:
It’s a B team mentality to use birth month as an excuse for not getting on the A team. Ask any A team player, they all feel they can play up a year.
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It has nothing to do with mentality. With the exception of a handful of unicorns (who by their nature are unicorns) as a practical matter that’s not how it works (or there would be a ton of more players at the highest levels playing up). Its a reality, for a ton of reasons laid out in soccenomics, that not only does size matter, but it’s a multiplier (the taller kids are picked early and because they are picked they get exposed to better coaching and better teammates). Soccer selection (unicorns excepted) is about 40% physical attributes, 40% skills and 20% politics (as shown by the guy in the other forum who mentioned rl players being played up to nl with the nl players getting benched)
 
Jamisfoes said:
I disagree. If trapped players are good they would be on the top team already. A few months don’t make that much difference.
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This was my guess, too. At least on the girls side, a year doesn't seem to mean much for olders.

Then I looked at the rosters for a few top teams. 18-20 kids on each, but only 2-4 of them with the later grade year.

We'll see some turnover, but not a complete overhaul. I'm sure there are about ten parents of trapped RL players for every one kid who actually moves up.
 
Zeke said:
This was my guess, too. At least on the girls side, a year doesn't seem to mean much for olders.

Then I looked at the rosters for a few top teams. 18-20 kids on each, but only 2-4 of them with the later grade year.

We'll see some turnover, but not a complete overhaul. I'm sure there are about ten parents of trapped RL players for every one kid who actually moves up.
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High school shows that there's not much difference at older ages but suspect that the RAE is already baked in as the earlier birthday players had all the attention and development opportunity when younger.
 
Yak said:
High school shows that there's not much difference at older ages but suspect that the RAE is already baked in as the earlier birthday players had all the attention and development opportunity when younger.
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RAE is strongest u10 and below.

For the highest levels it tends to taper off by u12.

The problem is (if you think RAE exists) the results of RAE are already baked in by u12. It might not be happening as much at the highest levels. But the players that have been chosen to play for the best teams have already benefited.
 
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