ECNL Expansion and Contraction? MLS2?

[RandomSoccerFan]

I get that you like to run numbers + feel that ECNL is the "best" (whatever that means).

Feel has nothing to do with it. Once someone can reliably understand which number is larger or smaller when looking at two different ones, they're 90% there. The rest is ignoring bias that keeps otherwise capable individuals from actually believing what they are seeing.

Keep in mind that right now the end goal for both GA and ECNL is College placement.

If you say so. Primary goal is to provide and grow a top soccer league for youth here in the US, and make some money while doing it. College placement may certainly be one of the goals.

There are...

- 333 D1 NCAA women's soccer programs

- 265 D2 NCAA women's soccer programs

- 441 D3 NCAA women's soccer programs

333 D1 teams × 18 players per team = 5994 potential spots on a D1 team

265 D2 teams x 18 players per team = 4770 potential spots on a D2 team

441 D3 teams X 18 players per team = 7938 potential spots on a D3 team

I'll take your word for it, seems reasonable. Probably helps to divide each of the last numbers by 4, which is roughly how many open spots to be expected for each year. Using the above numbers, it comes out to 4,675 per year. I'd guess that the number is actually a little larger for freshman spots, as more would drop out over time in college, but that's just a guess - not tied to any real data. It takes some estimations, but if there are 2.5M kids playing soccer in US from ages 13-17, cutting it evenly means ~500k 17 year olds, or 250K 17 year old girls. Even if that's high or low, it does mean that 4.6K out of 250K go from playing soccer at all, to actually playing D1/D2/D3, which is less than 2%. Whether that is halved or doubled, it's still a very small selection of kids that get that college soccer opportunity. (link: https://sfia.medium.com/soccer-participation-in-the-united-states-92f8393f6469)

In ECNL there's 10-15 truly high level clubs

In GA there's 5ish truly high level clubs

This may be how GA sees it. It's not how ECNL sees it, and it's not how math sees it. Unless high level is intended to reference something other than one team being likely to beat another team, or the top teams of one club beating the top teams of another club.

As you can see there's a lot of places players can play if they want to do so in college. Coaches are going to recruit the top 10% of every league. They're not going to just look at a single league.

Mostly agreed, here. No team/club/league means a guaranteed D1/D2/D3 slot, and no team/club/league automatically disqualifies a talented player from obtaining a D1/D2/D3 slot. But that does not mean the chances are equal across the board. And at that point, it's where "feels" should be discounted entirely once again. Questions that remove the ambiguity include: What percentage of players on League X championship teams get D1 spots. What percentage of players on League X winning teams get D1 spots. What percentage of players on average League X teams get D1 spots. What percentage of players from club X get D1 spots. Someone with years of ECNL experience has a higher chance of both having the necessary skills and having the necesssary exposure than someone who plays with their YMCA team down the street. Every other league is somewhere between that rec experience and the top leagues in the country - and no, recruiters won't look at each for a 10% quota of the top players in every league and every geography. Some are more equal than others...

But none of this is terribly relevant for the discussion on promotion/relegation. While it can work great in top leagues, it can be successful all the way down the chain as well. Doesn't have to be, but it can be. From an NPL standpoint, a team that does well in NPL3 in the fall gets to play somewhat more challenging teams in the spring, and is given a bump to NPL2 the next season. A team in NPL1 that does poorly in fall has a legitimate potential to lose their spot and go back to NPL2. This level of promotion/relegation may not be directly related to finding the very top talent in the US - but it's quite relevant to the kids that are going through it. It's the same reason we all want tournament seeding to be as even and fair as possible, but this type of movement does it over time rather than all within one weekend. If terrible teams are backstopped such that they never have any risk of being booted, it's not good for that team, that club, or the league. If amazing teams are winning easily every time they put on their cleats and they have no opportunity to play increasingly challenging opposition until they find peers - kids on those teams are being shortchanged and might not ever reach their potential.

 

[Jamisfoes]

You guys overestimated the push and the importance of college soccer for parents. Wealthy kids in America play club soccer. Wealthy parents don't care about the 1/4 or 1/2 college scholarships. Wealthy parents have their kids in "top" league for the bragging rights. This is why a bottom feeder ECNL club that sends kids to Chico state have parents keep spending money to get on that team. Bragging rights guys to be on an ECNL team. That's all it matters. Most people are not dumb, if their kids have the grades to go to UCLA not playing soccer, they won't go to Chico state playing soccer.

 

[Carlsbad7]

Feel has nothing to do with it. Once someone can reliably understand which number is larger or smaller when looking at two different ones, they're 90% there. The rest is ignoring bias that keeps otherwise capable individuals from actually believing what they are seeing.



If you say so. Primary goal is to provide and grow a top soccer league for youth here in the US, and make some money while doing it. College placement may certainly be one of the goals.



I'll take your word for it, seems reasonable. Probably helps to divide each of the last numbers by 4, which is roughly how many open spots to be expected for each year. Using the above numbers, it comes out to 4,675 per year. I'd guess that the number is actually a little larger for freshman spots, as more would drop out over time in college, but that's just a guess - not tied to any real data. It takes some estimations, but if there are 2.5M kids playing soccer in US from ages 13-17, cutting it evenly means ~500k 17 year olds, or 250K 17 year old girls. Even if that's high or low, it does mean that 4.6K out of 250K go from playing soccer at all, to actually playing D1/D2/D3, which is less than 2%. Whether that is halved or doubled, it's still a very small selection of kids that get that college soccer opportunity. (link: https://sfia.medium.com/soccer-participation-in-the-united-states-92f8393f6469)



This may be how GA sees it. It's not how ECNL sees it, and it's not how math sees it. Unless high level is intended to reference something other than one team being likely to beat another team, or the top teams of one club beating the top teams of another club.



Mostly agreed, here. No team/club/league means a guaranteed D1/D2/D3 slot, and no team/club/league automatically disqualifies a talented player from obtaining a D1/D2/D3 slot. But that does not mean the chances are equal across the board. And at that point, it's where "feels" should be discounted entirely once again. Questions that remove the ambiguity include: What percentage of players on League X championship teams get D1 spots. What percentage of players on League X winning teams get D1 spots. What percentage of players on average League X teams get D1 spots. What percentage of players from club X get D1 spots. Someone with years of ECNL experience has a higher chance of both having the necessary skills and having the necesssary exposure than someone who plays with their YMCA team down the street. Every other league is somewhere between that rec experience and the top leagues in the country - and no, recruiters won't look at each for a 10% quota of the top players in every league and every geography. Some are more equal than others...

But none of this is terribly relevant for the discussion on promotion/relegation. While it can work great in top leagues, it can be successful all the way down the chain as well. Doesn't have to be, but it can be. From an NPL standpoint, a team that does well in NPL3 in the fall gets to play somewhat more challenging teams in the spring, and is given a bump to NPL2 the next season. A team in NPL1 that does poorly in fall has a legitimate potential to lose their spot and go back to NPL2. This level of promotion/relegation may not be directly related to finding the very top talent in the US - but it's quite relevant to the kids that are going through it. It's the same reason we all want tournament seeding to be as even and fair as possible, but this type of movement does it over time rather than all within one weekend. If terrible teams are backstopped such that they never have any risk of being booted, it's not good for that team, that club, or the league. If amazing teams are winning easily every time they put on their cleats and they have no opportunity to play increasingly challenging opposition until they find peers - kids on those teams are being shortchanged and might not ever reach their potential.

Heads up "GA Rising" which was GAs attempt at putting together a 2nd level league under GA blew up this week. DPL is picking up the pieces + taking on all the 2nd teams.

The end result will be GA for top teams and DPL for all GA club second teams nationwide.

The reason I'm relaying is because DPL will also serve as the funnel for clubs that want join GA. What this means is GA will have a loose form of Promotion (from DPL). It remains to be seen if GA will Relegate from GA to DPL non performing clubs.

 

[Code]

While promotion/relegation is nice it only works at the highest competitive levels.

B, C, D, level soccer changes to quickly + players and parents at these levels play more for fun than anything else. Being overly competitive at this level would turn people off.

Absolutely disagree. It works best when implemented top to bottom. The B,C,D level teams know very well where they are at in level of play, and don't really have anything to lose. Teams that overrate themselves at the top levels however....

 

[Code]

I get that you like to run numbers + feel that ECNL is the "best" (whatever that means). Keep in mind that right now the end goal for both GA and ECNL is College placement.

There are...
- 333 D1 NCAA women's soccer programs
- 265 D2 NCAA women's soccer programs
- 441 D3 NCAA women's soccer programs

In ECNL there's 10-15 truly high level clubs
In GA there's 5ish truly high level clubs

333 D1 teams × 18 players per team = 5994 potential spots on a D1 team
265 D2 teams x 18 players per team = 4770 potential spots on a D2 team
441 D3 teams X 18 players per team = 7938 potential spots on a D3 team

As you can see there's a lot of places players can play if they want to do so in college. Coaches are going to recruit the top 10% of every league. They're not going to just look at a single league.

Again, your perspective of college placement being the top factor in youth sports

Don't get your panties in a wad. I was speaking in generalities. Not pointing a finger at any specific league, club, or team.

Pro/Rel leagues have to be the top of the food chain which makes them desirable to join. Leagues that cater to 2nd 3rd 4th level teams aren't as desirable to join.

Here's an example say a club has done so well in XYZ league that they're on ECNL GA and a primarily 2nd level Pro/Rel leagues radar. If all the leagues offered the club a spot which one do you think they'd choose?

Try it the other way say a club was dropped from a 2nd level Pro/Rel league. Egos would be hurt + in the future they just avoid the Pro/Rel league.

I like Pro/Rel leagues + wish GA + ECNL both did this. Unfortunately they don't + they're at the top of the fold chain (for girls) + are the only ones that could implement it (if they wanted to).

I really think your opinions are based purely on how you personally feel about the pro/rel scenario for your teams. Ego's and College prospects don't drive all the competiteve players and teams. It really seems like you project your personal perspective on the landscape and assessment of leagues; primarily concerned with the W/L record regardless of actual level of play. It may be very important to you, but doesn't make it a universal or objective metric for comparing leagues or teams.

 

[Code]

You guys overestimated the push and the importance of college soccer for parents. Wealthy kids in America play club soccer. Wealthy parents don't care about the 1/4 or 1/2 college scholarships. Wealthy parents have their kids in "top" league for the bragging rights. This is why a bottom feeder ECNL club that sends kids to Chico state have parents keep spending money to get on that team. Bragging rights guys to be on an ECNL team. That's all it matters. Most people are not dumb, if their kids have the grades to go to UCLA not playing soccer, they won't go to Chico state playing soccer.

Absolutely agree. If someone brings up college placement in a discussion about level of play strength, they are delusional about why most players are actually playing the sport. Most of the best players I have seen in youth soccer have zero intention of playing soccer in college. It is a low priority factor.

 

[Code]

Heads up "GA Rising" which was GAs attempt at putting together a 2nd level league under GA blew up this week. DPL is picking up the pieces + taking on all the 2nd teams.

The end result will be GA for top teams and DPL for all GA club second teams nationwide.

The reason I'm relaying is because DPL will also serve as the funnel for clubs that want join GA. What this means is GA will have a loose form of Promotion (from DPL). It remains to be seen if GA will Relegate from GA to DPL non performing clubs.

 

[Carlsbad7]

View attachment 17707

Kind of funny but the product ECNL provides isn't a big secret. Regarding your pic DA is gone and E64 is a dead man walking so I'm not sure how much they apply.

What recently happened is that GA and DPL are now officially both nationwide leagues that work together. What you'll start to see is that most GA clubs will place their 1st teams in GA, 2nd teams in DPL, and 3rd teams in XYZ local leagues.

The setup basically mirrors ECNL/RL but has minor advantages. The first being that a club doesn't need to be GA to play in DPL. The second is that GA and DPL are separate leagues, this brings more scouts (than something like ECRL) to events because there might be top teams that aren't GA playing.

How is more choice ever a bad thing?

What I find ironic about the whole ECNL vs GA debate was that after DA blew up ECNL could have brought all the DA teams into ECNL and had a single youth soccer league for all top clubs in the nation. Unfortunately ECNL chose to be petty + get back at the clubs that left for DA + make them beg to get back in. Taking things personally and looking for revenge instead of looking at the situation as an opportunity to expand the brand is what allowed GA to put its foot in the door. Now GA + DPL have grown to the point where it roughly mirrors ECNL + ECRL.

 

[Carlsbad7]

Absolutely agree. If someone brings up college placement in a discussion about level of play strength, they are delusional about why most players are actually playing the sport. Most of the best players I have seen in youth soccer have zero intention of playing soccer in college. It is a low priority factor.

Give me a break.

Are you really argueing that college placement isnt the carrot clubs dangle in front of parents to keep them engaged and that players are just "playing to win"?

Lots of mental gymnastics going on to try and prove your point.

 

[RandomSoccerFan]

How is more choice ever a bad thing?

The existence of choice is a blessing. Incorrectly assessing all choices as equivalently beneficial is problematic.

 

[Code]

Give me a break.

Are you really argueing that college placement isnt the carrot clubs dangle in front of parents to keep them engaged and that players are just "playing to win"?

Lots of mental gymnastics going on to try and prove your point.

I am, and have been. So are a lot of others. Believe it or not some players love soccer and competition for the sake of the sport. No mental gymnastics or outside carrots needed. It is well known that there are much better paths to college than girls soccer. In fact, girls soccer as an avenue to college is a really bad strategy. Sure, there are plenty of suckers the clubs catch with the college hook; that's how you distract people from evaluating the actual level of talent on a team.

 

[Carlsbad7]

I am, and have been. So are a lot of others. Believe it or not some players love soccer and competition for the sake of the sport. No mental gymnastics or outside carrots needed. It is well known that there are much better paths to college than girls soccer. In fact, girls soccer as an avenue to college is a really bad strategy. Sure, there are plenty of suckers the clubs catch with the college hook; that's how you distract people from evaluating the actual level of talent on a team.

 

[sockma]

I am, and have been. So are a lot of others. Believe it or not some players love soccer and competition for the sake of the sport. No mental gymnastics or outside carrots needed. It is well known that there are much better paths to college than girls soccer. In fact, girls soccer as an avenue to college is a really bad strategy. Sure, there are plenty of suckers the clubs catch with the college hook; that's how you distract people from evaluating the actual level of talent on a team.

Kind of funny but the product ECNL provides isn't a big secret. Regarding your pic DA is gone and E64 is a dead man walking so I'm not sure how much they apply.

What recently happened is that GA and DPL are now officially both nationwide leagues that work together. What you'll start to see is that most GA clubs will place their 1st teams in GA, 2nd teams in DPL, and 3rd teams in XYZ local leagues.

The setup basically mirrors ECNL/RL but has minor advantages. The first being that a club doesn't need to be GA to play in DPL. The second is that GA and DPL are separate leagues, this brings more scouts (than something like ECRL) to events because there might be top teams that aren't GA playing.

How is more choice ever a bad thing?

What I find ironic about the whole ECNL vs GA debate was that after DA blew up ECNL could have brought all the DA teams into ECNL and had a single youth soccer league for all top clubs in the nation. Unfortunately ECNL chose to be petty + get back at the clubs that left for DA + make them beg to get back in. Taking things personally and looking for revenge instead of looking at the situation as an opportunity to expand the brand is what allowed GA to put its foot in the door. Now GA + DPL have grown to the point where it roughly mirrors ECNL + ECRL.

There were over 1000 college scouts at ECNL/ECRL combined playoffs in San Diego. ECRL teams aren't necessarily in ECNL too.

No other event pulled in that many scouts. It doesn't matter what the name of the league is, this is factual information.

 

[Barca2021]

Looks like Tampa Bay United and Boston Bolts have exited ECNL Boys. Both had MLS Next and ECNL teams last year. Their ECNL teams have moved over to National Academy League.