ECNL Expansion and Contraction? MLS2?

Youth soccer changes quick though...I expect the landscape to be totally different in 3-5 years.
After being around the youth soccer world for the last 10ish years. This is my biggest takeaway as well. Change is the only thing you can guarantee in youth soccer.

Some clubs are smart + tend to build on their successes + over time become dominate. Some clubs just can't keep themselves from making stupid decisions + always tend to lose.

Leagues are "old mens clubs" they bring clubs together those they like and exclude the ones they don't like.

Parents unfortunately buy into the "path to the pros" nonsense + over time become overly loyal to XYZ club or league which just allows them to charge higher and higher prices.

All so players can maybe one day play professionally and earn 50k a year or play in college with a scholorship.
 
Agreed - honestly, just add Pro/Rel at the ECNL level then I would be happy. Until then, it's a scam and not "Player First" as the like to market on shit. Player last if anything.

This a big reason I think the NPL is going to be the biggest threat to the ECNL/GA in the next couple years. It is connected to local leagues, it has a pyramid structure, it has yearly promotion/relegation built into Flight 1/NPL (starting this season, based off last season), and is team performance based, not club based (accessibility for lower income players).

When some of the DPL and ECRL players recognize they can play locally in the NPL, at the same level of play or higher, on a first team, without the added expenses of travel, with the same level of exposure, they will start going back to the NPL teams. Then the ECNL/GA clubs are going to have problems recruiting talent for the second teams, creating a cascade effect for top team talent. This cycle will create stronger and stronger NPL teams year over year.
 
This a big reason I think the NPL is going to be the biggest threat to the ECNL/GA in the next couple years. It is connected to local leagues, it has a pyramid structure, it has yearly promotion/relegation built into Flight 1/NPL (starting this season, based off last season), and is team performance based, not club based (accessibility for lower income players).

When some of the DPL and ECRL players recognize they can play locally in the NPL, at the same level of play or higher, on a first team, without the added expenses of travel, with the same level of exposure, they will start going back to the NPL teams. Then the ECNL/GA clubs are going to have problems recruiting talent for the second teams, creating a cascade effect for top team talent. This cycle will create stronger and stronger NPL teams year over year.

I could see this happening. Also what I see as a threat to most ECNL/GA clubs - most (if not all) don't have a rec arm of the club...they are comp only. Many of these "city" clubs used to just be rec and select teams coached by parents, the top talent would move to the ECNL/DA clubs...that is changing. Those clubs are starting to put in stronger coaching and leadership teams for the competitive side. They have a pipeline of talent and $$$ from their rec side and many have great relationships with the cities they reside in, and because they run the rec program they get great field access often at discounts. Over time, that setup will chip away at the comp only clubs.

I've only got a few more years in the club soccer world until my dd is aged out. Going to be fun to see what happens over that time to the youth club soccer world. Would love to see the NPL pro/rel setup win out as I think its best for the players. Keep the top division named ENCL...who cares...just has to have pro/rel at the team level. The $$$ will be there...probably even more than there are now with these exclusive club setups.
 
This a big reason I think the NPL is going to be the biggest threat to the ECNL/GA in the next couple years. It is connected to local leagues, it has a pyramid structure, it has yearly promotion/relegation built into Flight 1/NPL (starting this season, based off last season), and is team performance based, not club based (accessibility for lower income players).

When some of the DPL and ECRL players recognize they can play locally in the NPL, at the same level of play or higher, on a first team, without the added expenses of travel, with the same level of exposure, they will start going back to the NPL teams. Then the ECNL/GA clubs are going to have problems recruiting talent for the second teams, creating a cascade effect for top team talent. This cycle will create stronger and stronger NPL teams year over year.
But at the moment, teams are leaving NPL/Discovery for even DPL, with just the hope of landing GA someday. No one going the other way, so the scenario is very unlikely given the stranglehold of ECNL and the clear statement GA/DPL is making as the best possible challenge to ECNL dominance.
 
But at the moment, teams are leaving NPL/Discovery for even DPL, with just the hope of landing GA someday. No one going the other way, so the scenario is very unlikely given the stranglehold of ECNL and the clear statement GA/DPL is making as the best possible challenge to ECNL dominance.

That's a good point. Just learned that Union Sacramento FC dropped NPL for DPL and EA. My guess is clubs like Union are sick of NorCal Premier jerking them around and always favoring the top clubs in the area. Will interesting to see how NorCal navigates through this.
 
That's a good point. Just learned that Union Sacramento FC dropped NPL for DPL and EA. My guess is clubs like Union are sick of NorCal Premier jerking them around and always favoring the top clubs in the area. Will interesting to see how NorCal navigates through this.

Why would Union be favored for anything?
 
But at the moment, teams are leaving NPL/Discovery for even DPL, with just the hope of landing GA someday. No one going the other way, so the scenario is very unlikely given the stranglehold of ECNL and the clear statement GA/DPL is making as the best possible challenge to ECNL dominance.

I'm pretty sure DPL doesn't accept teams; it is club based, like all the "elite leagues." Which is a big factor in my read on players moving back to NPL. That is what is meant by "team" performance based vs. "Club" based. Individual teams within the club will face promotion/relegation. It is difficult to promote/relegate an entire club, which is why it is rare in the letter leagues, and another big factor in why NPL will gain strength quickly. DPL certainly is not a challenge to ECNL, maybe GA, but GA isn't any stronger than E64 or ECRL anywhere west of the Mississippi.
 
I'm pretty sure DPL doesn't accept teams; it is club based, like all the "elite leagues." Which is a big factor in my read on players moving back to NPL. That is what is meant by "team" performance based vs. "Club" based. Individual teams within the club will face promotion/relegation. It is difficult to promote/relegate an entire club, which is why it is rare in the letter leagues, and another big factor in why NPL will gain strength quickly. DPL certainly is not a challenge to ECNL, maybe GA, but GA isn't any stronger than E64 or ECRL anywhere west of the Mississippi.

It would be nice if things shook out the way you predict for NPL, but I doubt it. The "elite club" league model isn't good for anyone but "elite" clubs.

Unfortunately, NPL has been around for more than a decade and, well, it hasn't exactly accomplished much.

The fractured way NPL is run under each USCS regional league is a mess. SoCal couldn't even get their stuff together enough to run a G2010 NPL last year. And NorCal grants NPL on a club level...
 
That's a good point. Just learned that Union Sacramento FC dropped NPL for DPL and EA. My guess is clubs like Union are sick of NorCal Premier jerking them around and always favoring the top clubs in the area. Will interesting to see how NorCal navigates through this.

After a quick look at Unions performance in the NPL over this past year, and their current rankings, I can't say I would consider their addition to DPL as an indication of DPL getting better. Their teams are mostly at the lower performance range in the NorCal NPL. Seems more likely that Sac Union's NPL teams are looking at being relegated from the NPL divisions; not a good look for a GA club to have it's second teams playing in low local flights. Moving them to the DPL shields them from the likely future relegation. Their move into the DPL will actually increase the NorCal NPL League ranking, and decrease the DPL League rankings.
 
It is true some clubs teams are granted automatic entry to NPL at U13 on a club level. But individual teams are also added based on performance. Once U13 starts every team faces promotion/relegation regardless of club affiliation. https://norcalpremier.com/competition/national-premier-league/resource/npl-league-overview/
View attachment 17703
While promotion/relegation is nice it only works at the highest competitive levels.

B, C, D, level soccer changes to quickly + players and parents at these levels play more for fun than anything else. Being overly competitive at this level would turn people off.
 
While promotion/relegation is nice it only works at the highest competitive levels.

B, C, D, level soccer changes to quickly + players and parents at these levels play more for fun than anything else. Being overly competitive at this level would turn people off.

This is shockingly tone-deaf, at least from what I've seen. I'm sure there are players and parents that play more for fun - but NPL has more than its share of players and families that take the competition very seriously, and there are plenty of players in State Premier that work hard for that potential NPL promotion. You may have to better define what you mean by B, C, D level soccer, but if it's referring to everything other than MLSN/ECNL, it's way too broad a statement to describe everything else as "just fun".
 
This is shockingly tone-deaf, at least from what I've seen. I'm sure there are players and parents that play more for fun - but NPL has more than its share of players and families that take the competition very seriously, and there are plenty of players in State Premier that work hard for that potential NPL promotion. You may have to better define what you mean by B, C, D level soccer, but if it's referring to everything other than MLSN/ECNL, it's way too broad a statement to describe everything else as "just fun".
Don't get your panties in a wad. I was speaking in generalities. Not pointing a finger at any specific league, club, or team.

Pro/Rel leagues have to be the top of the food chain which makes them desirable to join. Leagues that cater to 2nd 3rd 4th level teams aren't as desirable to join.

Here's an example say a club has done so well in XYZ league that they're on ECNL GA and a primarily 2nd level Pro/Rel leagues radar. If all the leagues offered the club a spot which one do you think they'd choose?

Try it the other way say a club was dropped from a 2nd level Pro/Rel league. Egos would be hurt + in the future they just avoid the Pro/Rel league.

I like Pro/Rel leagues + wish GA + ECNL both did this. Unfortunately they don't + they're at the top of the fold chain (for girls) + are the only ones that could implement it (if they wanted to).
 
Well GA could implement it, but since it's not anywhere close to the top of the food chain, by your logic it couldn't be implemented successfully.
 
Well GA could implement it, but since it's not anywhere close to the top of the food chain, by your logic it couldn't be implemented successfully.
I get that you like to run numbers + feel that ECNL is the "best" (whatever that means). Keep in mind that right now the end goal for both GA and ECNL is College placement.

There are...
- 333 D1 NCAA women's soccer programs
- 265 D2 NCAA women's soccer programs
- 441 D3 NCAA women's soccer programs

In ECNL there's 10-15 truly high level clubs
In GA there's 5ish truly high level clubs

333 D1 teams × 18 players per team = 5994 potential spots on a D1 team
265 D2 teams x 18 players per team = 4770 potential spots on a D2 team
441 D3 teams X 18 players per team = 7938 potential spots on a D3 team

As you can see there's a lot of places players can play if they want to do so in college. Coaches are going to recruit the top 10% of every league. They're not going to just look at a single league.
 
I get that you like to run numbers + feel that ECNL is the "best" (whatever that means).

Feel has nothing to do with it. Once someone can reliably understand which number is larger or smaller when looking at two different ones, they're 90% there. The rest is ignoring bias that keeps otherwise capable individuals from actually believing what they are seeing.

Keep in mind that right now the end goal for both GA and ECNL is College placement.

If you say so. Primary goal is to provide and grow a top soccer league for youth here in the US, and make some money while doing it. College placement may certainly be one of the goals.

There are...

- 333 D1 NCAA women's soccer programs

- 265 D2 NCAA women's soccer programs

- 441 D3 NCAA women's soccer programs

333 D1 teams × 18 players per team = 5994 potential spots on a D1 team

265 D2 teams x 18 players per team = 4770 potential spots on a D2 team

441 D3 teams X 18 players per team = 7938 potential spots on a D3 team

I'll take your word for it, seems reasonable. Probably helps to divide each of the last numbers by 4, which is roughly how many open spots to be expected for each year. Using the above numbers, it comes out to 4,675 per year. I'd guess that the number is actually a little larger for freshman spots, as more would drop out over time in college, but that's just a guess - not tied to any real data. It takes some estimations, but if there are 2.5M kids playing soccer in US from ages 13-17, cutting it evenly means ~500k 17 year olds, or 250K 17 year old girls. Even if that's high or low, it does mean that 4.6K out of 250K go from playing soccer at all, to actually playing D1/D2/D3, which is less than 2%. Whether that is halved or doubled, it's still a very small selection of kids that get that college soccer opportunity. (link: https://sfia.medium.com/soccer-participation-in-the-united-states-92f8393f6469)

In ECNL there's 10-15 truly high level clubs

In GA there's 5ish truly high level clubs

This may be how GA sees it. It's not how ECNL sees it, and it's not how math sees it. Unless high level is intended to reference something other than one team being likely to beat another team, or the top teams of one club beating the top teams of another club.

As you can see there's a lot of places players can play if they want to do so in college. Coaches are going to recruit the top 10% of every league. They're not going to just look at a single league.

Mostly agreed, here. No team/club/league means a guaranteed D1/D2/D3 slot, and no team/club/league automatically disqualifies a talented player from obtaining a D1/D2/D3 slot. But that does not mean the chances are equal across the board. And at that point, it's where "feels" should be discounted entirely once again. Questions that remove the ambiguity include: What percentage of players on League X championship teams get D1 spots. What percentage of players on League X winning teams get D1 spots. What percentage of players on average League X teams get D1 spots. What percentage of players from club X get D1 spots. Someone with years of ECNL experience has a higher chance of both having the necessary skills and having the necesssary exposure than someone who plays with their YMCA team down the street. Every other league is somewhere between that rec experience and the top leagues in the country - and no, recruiters won't look at each for a 10% quota of the top players in every league and every geography. Some are more equal than others...

But none of this is terribly relevant for the discussion on promotion/relegation. While it can work great in top leagues, it can be successful all the way down the chain as well. Doesn't have to be, but it can be. From an NPL standpoint, a team that does well in NPL3 in the fall gets to play somewhat more challenging teams in the spring, and is given a bump to NPL2 the next season. A team in NPL1 that does poorly in fall has a legitimate potential to lose their spot and go back to NPL2. This level of promotion/relegation may not be directly related to finding the very top talent in the US - but it's quite relevant to the kids that are going through it. It's the same reason we all want tournament seeding to be as even and fair as possible, but this type of movement does it over time rather than all within one weekend. If terrible teams are backstopped such that they never have any risk of being booted, it's not good for that team, that club, or the league. If amazing teams are winning easily every time they put on their cleats and they have no opportunity to play increasingly challenging opposition until they find peers - kids on those teams are being shortchanged and might not ever reach their potential.
 
You guys overestimated the push and the importance of college soccer for parents. Wealthy kids in America play club soccer. Wealthy parents don't care about the 1/4 or 1/2 college scholarships. Wealthy parents have their kids in "top" league for the bragging rights. This is why a bottom feeder ECNL club that sends kids to Chico state have parents keep spending money to get on that team. Bragging rights guys to be on an ECNL team. That's all it matters. Most people are not dumb, if their kids have the grades to go to UCLA not playing soccer, they won't go to Chico state playing soccer.
 
Feel has nothing to do with it. Once someone can reliably understand which number is larger or smaller when looking at two different ones, they're 90% there. The rest is ignoring bias that keeps otherwise capable individuals from actually believing what they are seeing.



If you say so. Primary goal is to provide and grow a top soccer league for youth here in the US, and make some money while doing it. College placement may certainly be one of the goals.



I'll take your word for it, seems reasonable. Probably helps to divide each of the last numbers by 4, which is roughly how many open spots to be expected for each year. Using the above numbers, it comes out to 4,675 per year. I'd guess that the number is actually a little larger for freshman spots, as more would drop out over time in college, but that's just a guess - not tied to any real data. It takes some estimations, but if there are 2.5M kids playing soccer in US from ages 13-17, cutting it evenly means ~500k 17 year olds, or 250K 17 year old girls. Even if that's high or low, it does mean that 4.6K out of 250K go from playing soccer at all, to actually playing D1/D2/D3, which is less than 2%. Whether that is halved or doubled, it's still a very small selection of kids that get that college soccer opportunity. (link: https://sfia.medium.com/soccer-participation-in-the-united-states-92f8393f6469)



This may be how GA sees it. It's not how ECNL sees it, and it's not how math sees it. Unless high level is intended to reference something other than one team being likely to beat another team, or the top teams of one club beating the top teams of another club.



Mostly agreed, here. No team/club/league means a guaranteed D1/D2/D3 slot, and no team/club/league automatically disqualifies a talented player from obtaining a D1/D2/D3 slot. But that does not mean the chances are equal across the board. And at that point, it's where "feels" should be discounted entirely once again. Questions that remove the ambiguity include: What percentage of players on League X championship teams get D1 spots. What percentage of players on League X winning teams get D1 spots. What percentage of players on average League X teams get D1 spots. What percentage of players from club X get D1 spots. Someone with years of ECNL experience has a higher chance of both having the necessary skills and having the necesssary exposure than someone who plays with their YMCA team down the street. Every other league is somewhere between that rec experience and the top leagues in the country - and no, recruiters won't look at each for a 10% quota of the top players in every league and every geography. Some are more equal than others...

But none of this is terribly relevant for the discussion on promotion/relegation. While it can work great in top leagues, it can be successful all the way down the chain as well. Doesn't have to be, but it can be. From an NPL standpoint, a team that does well in NPL3 in the fall gets to play somewhat more challenging teams in the spring, and is given a bump to NPL2 the next season. A team in NPL1 that does poorly in fall has a legitimate potential to lose their spot and go back to NPL2. This level of promotion/relegation may not be directly related to finding the very top talent in the US - but it's quite relevant to the kids that are going through it. It's the same reason we all want tournament seeding to be as even and fair as possible, but this type of movement does it over time rather than all within one weekend. If terrible teams are backstopped such that they never have any risk of being booted, it's not good for that team, that club, or the league. If amazing teams are winning easily every time they put on their cleats and they have no opportunity to play increasingly challenging opposition until they find peers - kids on those teams are being shortchanged and might not ever reach their potential.
Heads up "GA Rising" which was GAs attempt at putting together a 2nd level league under GA blew up this week. DPL is picking up the pieces + taking on all the 2nd teams.

The end result will be GA for top teams and DPL for all GA club second teams nationwide.

The reason I'm relaying is because DPL will also serve as the funnel for clubs that want join GA. What this means is GA will have a loose form of Promotion (from DPL). It remains to be seen if GA will Relegate from GA to DPL non performing clubs.
 
While promotion/relegation is nice it only works at the highest competitive levels.

B, C, D, level soccer changes to quickly + players and parents at these levels play more for fun than anything else. Being overly competitive at this level would turn people off.

Absolutely disagree. It works best when implemented top to bottom. The B,C,D level teams know very well where they are at in level of play, and don't really have anything to lose. Teams that overrate themselves at the top levels however....
 
I get that you like to run numbers + feel that ECNL is the "best" (whatever that means). Keep in mind that right now the end goal for both GA and ECNL is College placement.

There are...
- 333 D1 NCAA women's soccer programs
- 265 D2 NCAA women's soccer programs
- 441 D3 NCAA women's soccer programs

In ECNL there's 10-15 truly high level clubs
In GA there's 5ish truly high level clubs

333 D1 teams × 18 players per team = 5994 potential spots on a D1 team
265 D2 teams x 18 players per team = 4770 potential spots on a D2 team
441 D3 teams X 18 players per team = 7938 potential spots on a D3 team

As you can see there's a lot of places players can play if they want to do so in college. Coaches are going to recruit the top 10% of every league. They're not going to just look at a single league.

Again, your perspective of college placement being the top factor in youth sports
Don't get your panties in a wad. I was speaking in generalities. Not pointing a finger at any specific league, club, or team.

Pro/Rel leagues have to be the top of the food chain which makes them desirable to join. Leagues that cater to 2nd 3rd 4th level teams aren't as desirable to join.

Here's an example say a club has done so well in XYZ league that they're on ECNL GA and a primarily 2nd level Pro/Rel leagues radar. If all the leagues offered the club a spot which one do you think they'd choose?

Try it the other way say a club was dropped from a 2nd level Pro/Rel league. Egos would be hurt + in the future they just avoid the Pro/Rel league.

I like Pro/Rel leagues + wish GA + ECNL both did this. Unfortunately they don't + they're at the top of the fold chain (for girls) + are the only ones that could implement it (if they wanted to).


I really think your opinions are based purely on how you personally feel about the pro/rel scenario for your teams. Ego's and College prospects don't drive all the competiteve players and teams. It really seems like you project your personal perspective on the landscape and assessment of leagues; primarily concerned with the W/L record regardless of actual level of play. It may be very important to you, but doesn't make it a universal or objective metric for comparing leagues or teams.
 
You guys overestimated the push and the importance of college soccer for parents. Wealthy kids in America play club soccer. Wealthy parents don't care about the 1/4 or 1/2 college scholarships. Wealthy parents have their kids in "top" league for the bragging rights. This is why a bottom feeder ECNL club that sends kids to Chico state have parents keep spending money to get on that team. Bragging rights guys to be on an ECNL team. That's all it matters. Most people are not dumb, if their kids have the grades to go to UCLA not playing soccer, they won't go to Chico state playing soccer.

Absolutely agree. If someone brings up college placement in a discussion about level of play strength, they are delusional about why most players are actually playing the sport. Most of the best players I have seen in youth soccer have zero intention of playing soccer in college. It is a low priority factor.
 
Back
Top