Climate and Weather

Bernie Sanders said:
The 1880's signaled the end of a sub-cooling trend within the larger warming trend of the last 20,000 years.
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Agree. Hence the 1500 graph. Continuation of that cooling trend would have normally triggered the next glacial inception.

Bernie Sanders said:
We are in a plateau, where things can swing up or down, before the inevitable descent into cooler, and less hospitable days.
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Agree that the descent is indeed inevitable. But the projections are that, at this point, the current interglacial period will persist for another 100,0oo years.

Bernie Sanders said:
So, yes, we are at, or near the top of
a warming trend that started roughly 20,000 years ago.
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With 800K of ice core data on the hard drive its hard not to play with it. I segmented the observational data from the Antarctic (65S-90S zonal) with the core data and selected the last six interglacial peaks (A-F in linked image) to expand and look at more closely. The ~20,000 year period since the termination of the last ice age (peak F) is expanded in the linked figure.

https://s10.postimg.org/7jpth49mx/ice_core.jpg

This allowed me to calculate linear slopes for 27 different warming episodes, including the latest warming event beginning (for the Antarctic measurement data) starting about 1930. This group of rates clustered (remarkably tightly actually) as a normal distribution, but with one extreme (>5 std. devs.) outlier. I imagine you can guess which warming period the outlier is. Thus, the current rate of warming being measured in the Antarctic today does not match, statistically, the rate of warming that occurred as we moved out of the last ice age 20,000 years ago or for other warming events associated with 5 other interglacial periods over the last 400,000 years. This suggests there is something different about it.

I'm sure we won't agree on this but its been fun. If you've been willing to look at the data for yourself that's great.

warming rates.jpg
 
Wez said:
It's right next to the "making a clown look the fool" icon. He's literally dismantling you...
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Sorry, missed this. My intent is the opposite I guess. The material on this thread is stuff I enjoy thinking about. I don't want to beat anybody up on it. If I'm feeling ornery I can set out a badger trap line on the "dumb button" threads with the best of them. Tan the pelts for weeks and they still smell like rancid mink oil. Pointless though. And this thread may be too for that matter. But just trying to create a bit of breathing room and see where it goes.
 
EvilGoalie 21 said:
Sorry, missed this. My intent is the opposite I guess. The material on this thread is stuff I enjoy thinking about. I don't want to beat anybody up on it. If I'm feeling ornery I can set out a badger trap line on the "dumb button" threads with the best of them. Tan the pelts for weeks and they still smell like rancid mink oil. Pointless though. And this thread may be too for that matter. But just trying to create a bit of breathing room and see where it goes.
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What policies should be implemented that are not already?
 
EvilGoalie 21 said:
Agree. Hence the 1500 graph. Continuation of that cooling trend would have normally triggered the next glacial inception.



Agree that the descent is indeed inevitable. But the projections are that, at this point, the current interglacial period will persist for another 100,0oo years.



With 800K of ice core data on the hard drive its hard not to play with it. I segmented the observational data from the Antarctic (65S-90S zonal) with the core data and selected the last six interglacial peaks (A-F in linked image) to expand and look at more closely. The ~20,000 year period since the termination of the last ice age (peak F) is expanded in the linked figure.

https://s10.postimg.org/7jpth49mx/ice_core.jpg

This allowed me to calculate linear slopes for 27 different warming episodes, including the latest warming event beginning (for the Antarctic measurement data) starting about 1930. This group of rates clustered (remarkably tightly actually) as a normal distribution, but with one extreme (>5 std. devs.) outlier. I imagine you can guess which warming period the outlier is. Thus, the current rate of warming being measured in the Antarctic today does not match, statistically, the rate of warming that occurred as we moved out of the last ice age 20,000 years ago or for other warming events associated with 5 other interglacial periods over the last 400,000 years. This suggests there is something different about it.

I'm sure we won't agree on this but its been fun. If you've been willing to look at the data for yourself that's great.

View attachment 208
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It seems we agree on much more than we disagree on.
100,000 more years of beach weather is better than the alternative, if it pans out, but like a woman, she can turn when she wants to, and there aint a damn thing you, me, or even espola can do about it.
I hope you're right about the things we agree on, and if by chance we have actually turned the electric blanket on the barca lounger up a click, I dont think we need to panic, as long as gramps doesnt fall asleep with a cigarette in his mouth.
 
EvilGoalie 21 said:
Sorry, missed this. My intent is the opposite I guess. The material on this thread is stuff I enjoy thinking about. I don't want to beat anybody up on it. If I'm feeling ornery I can set out a badger trap line on the "dumb button" threads with the best of them. Tan the pelts for weeks and they still smell like rancid mink oil. Pointless though. And this thread may be too for that matter. But just trying to create a bit of breathing room and see where it goes.
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Wez, is ok, he just falls in with the experts a little to comfortably.
Im too stupid to do that.
Just ask him, or espola, or any of the long list of certified smartys around here.
 
Lion Eyes said:
Wondering if any of the 'man can control climate' advocates can let the folks in Florida know what they need to do in order to control Matthew...
There is no time to waste.
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http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/6/13192060/hurricane-matthew-drudge-tweet

"Matt Drudge’s latest conspiracy theory is not just stupid — it’s dangerous"

Hurricane Matthew is looking to be the first major hurricane to hit Florida in a decade. It killed more than 100 people in Haiti. Officials in the state are taking on the difficult task of getting people to take the threat seriously enough to leave their homes.

Matt Drudge just made it a lot harder with a suggestion that the warnings are part of a left-wing conspiracy to convince Florida residents that climate change is real.
 
Wez said:
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/6/13192060/hurricane-matthew-drudge-tweet

"Matt Drudge’s latest conspiracy theory is not just stupid — it’s dangerous"

Hurricane Matthew is looking to be the first major hurricane to hit Florida in a decade. It killed more than 100 people in Haiti. Officials in the state are taking on the difficult task of getting people to take the threat seriously enough to leave their homes.

Matt Drudge just made it a lot harder with a suggestion that the warnings are part of a left-wing conspiracy to convince Florida residents that climate change is real.
Click to expand...
Matt made it harder for people to make decisions according to their situation? I'd like to see some proof of that.
 
Wez said:
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/6/13192060/hurricane-matthew-drudge-tweet

"Matt Drudge’s latest conspiracy theory is not just stupid — it’s dangerous"

Hurricane Matthew is looking to be the first major hurricane to hit Florida in a decade. It killed more than 100 people in Haiti. Officials in the state are taking on the difficult task of getting people to take the threat seriously enough to leave their homes.

Matt Drudge just made it a lot harder with a suggestion that the warnings are part of a left-wing conspiracy to convince Florida residents that climate change is real.
Click to expand...
I am no fan drudge since went into the bag for trump, but you must be an idiot to post this dribble. Oh wait...
 
Wez said:
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/6/13192060/hurricane-matthew-drudge-tweet

"Matt Drudge’s latest conspiracy theory is not just stupid — it’s dangerous"

Hurricane Matthew is looking to be the first major hurricane to hit Florida in a decade. It killed more than 100 people in Haiti. Officials in the state are taking on the difficult task of getting people to take the threat seriously enough to leave their homes.

Matt Drudge just made it a lot harder with a suggestion that the warnings are part of a left-wing conspiracy to convince Florida residents that climate change is real.
Click to expand...

Drudge has a long profitable history of concocting misleading headlines.
 
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