Bad News Thread

I had to go find some of the photos.

This is from May 8, 2020 in Utah.

At this time for example, you couldn't dine in or outside at any restaurant or go to any bar in AZ.

Notice all the mask wearing. They never shut down.

2020-05-08.jpg
 
Desert Hound said:
Think about what we are hearing from Fauci and others.

If people are vaccinated can we do the following?

Stop social distancing? No

Can we travel like we did before? No

Can restaurants and bars go back to normal? No

Are we safe? We don't know

Can we still spread the disease? We don't know

And so on.

So what is the point?

Watch the idiotic rules/procedures they keep or put in place long after this is over.

By the way...the latest is hey there are variants popping up. We just don't know what MIGHT happen with the new ones.

My response? Live life. The flu has variants come around every year. I suspect covid will constantly mutate as well. We cannot keep on living in fear of what MIGHT be.
Click to expand...
For a while, people were going to fall over dead while exercising from the inflammation in the heart caused by COVID. I am happy to say I haven't heard anything about that in a while. Now it's the variants.

You saw those percentages from Israel I posted in The Good News thread from the NY Times. Once you are vaccinated, you are at a much lower risk than the flu - to get or give.

"Here’s a useful way to think about Israel’s numbers: Only 3.5 out of every 100,000 people vaccinated there were later hospitalized with Covid symptoms. During a typical flu season in the U.S., by comparison, roughly 150 out of every 100,000 people are hospitalized with flu symptoms."
 
Desert Hound said:
Not true. Utah was open. When I was sitting here in AZ with restaurants and bars closed, my friends in Utah were sending me texts of them dining out, going to the bar, etc.
Click to expand...
For alcohol, UT is always half closed. Has been that way for years.

Per capita alcohol consumption is about half what it is in other states. That likely also means that average time spent in bars is about half what it is in other states. And the bar/saloon contribution to transmissibility is about half what it is in other states.
 
dad4 said:
Ok. deaths per million residents in the west:
AZ 2150
SD 2106
ND 1890
NM 1738
KS 1596
NV 1592
TX 1477
CA 1262
MT 1261
OK 1078
NE 1060
ID 1030
WA 650
UT 582
OR 513


Looks like we should ask what WA, UT, and OR did right. We should also ask what AZ, ND, SD did wrong.

Don’t forget to include alcohol when you think about it. UT is a weird place for booze. The low case rate in UT may have something to do with fewer people going to bars or drinking at each others homes. Per capita alcohol consumption in UT is about half what it is in Oregon or Washington. The total number of bars is also restricted by state law, as are the hours.

Seems to be a pretty strong case for closing bars and restaurants. All three of the best records in the west were is states with some kind of restriction on bars and restaurants. All three of the worst records in the west were in states with bars and restaurants open.
Click to expand...
I was in Utah for a week in July, including the 4th. Utah was way more open and way more lax with mask wearing than California. Mask wearing at indoor retail shops was not mandatory and at some stores (like fishing and hunting shops) mask wearing was virtually non-existent. Your liquor theory is speculative at best (I'm being polite).
 
kickingandscreaming said:
For a while, people were going to fall over dead while exercising from the inflammation in the heart caused by COVID. I am happy to say I haven't heard anything about that in a while. Now it's the variants.

You saw those percentages from Israel I posted in The Good News thread from the NY Times. Once you are vaccinated, you are at a much lower risk than the flu - to get or give.

"Here’s a useful way to think about Israel’s numbers: Only 3.5 out of every 100,000 people vaccinated there were later hospitalized with Covid symptoms. During a typical flu season in the U.S., by comparison, roughly 150 out of every 100,000 people are hospitalized with flu symptoms."
Click to expand...
I did read that. And that is all very good news.
 
dad4 said:
For alcohol, UT is always half closed. Has been that way for years.

Per capita alcohol consumption is about half what it is in other states. That likely also means that average time spent in bars is about half what it is in other states. And the bar/saloon contribution to transmissibility is about half what it is in other states.
Click to expand...
And yet their numbers match up with OR and WA.

2 states that basically did the CA shut everything down route.

As I said if lockdowns and masks made a difference the data would easily show it.
 
Grace T. said:
p.s. It's interesting Utah, Oregon, Washington all behaved similarly. All states roughly the same size and each having 1 large city and several mid size cities. Most housing is single family homes. My completely speculative guess is in Utah probably, more than the bars, the factor that is going on is their conscientiousness. People from Utah really look out for each other. Our next door neighbors, for example, who we'd only known for a couple weeks offered to watch my boys overnight in the event I needed to be hospitalized overnight for some tests. I think part of what was happening in Utah is that if someone felt sick, I don't think they were going to temple/church for fear of contaminating others.

The other monkey wrench in your figures is New Mexico....had one of the harder lockdowns in the west and quarantine periods for travel yet it still got the result that it got....partially its due to the outbreak in the Navajo nation, but still the NPIs didn't work as well as hoped.
Click to expand...
I think NM threw in the towel on restrictions late last fall. Not quite as bad as Europe, but with similar results.

It just shows that restrictions won't work after you stop using them.
 
kickingandscreaming said:
For a while, people were going to fall over dead while exercising from the inflammation in the heart caused by COVID. I am happy to say I haven't heard anything about that in a while. Now it's the variants
Click to expand...
Yes that was the "fear' for awhile. As data came in that went away.

And yes you are correct, now the "fear" is variants.
 
Desert Hound said:
And yet their numbers match up with OR and WA.

2 states that basically did the CA shut everything down route.

As I said if lockdowns and masks made a difference the data would easily show it.
Click to expand...
The data do show it.

You just aren't good enough at statistics to understand the data.

There are statisticians who are good enough, but you refuse to listen to them.

So you go back to cherry picking the comparisons that tell you what you want to hear. WA/OR, but not SD/MN. CA/TX, but not AZ/CA.
 
dad4 said:
The data do show it.

You just aren't good enough at statistics to understand the data.

There are statisticians who are good enough, but you refuse to listen to them.

So you go back to cherry picking the comparisons that tell you what you want to hear. WA/OR, but not SD/MN. CA/TX, but not AZ/CA.
Click to expand...
How about explain CA vs TX/FL?

Or explain OR/WA vs UT?
 
This is very disturbing and worse than I thought, but not totally surprising. I just can't believe they put it in writing. The following is an excerpt from an email to parents from a middle school in SDUSD about potential reopening:

SDUSD will still need to bargain with all seven of our unions before we will have any logistical details, schedules, or concrete dates, and as I receive additional information and details, I will be sure to pass them along to you.

This is beyond f'ed up. Our politicians need to get a pair and do like Reagan did with the air traffic controllers.
 
Desert Hound said:
How about explain CA vs TX/FL?

Or explain OR/WA vs UT?
Click to expand...

CA has a more transmissible virus than TX/FL. And CA has a more disease prone low income housing setup.

By rights, our numbers should be significantly worse than theirs. Instead, we are 10-20% lower.

How do you explain AZ vs every other western state? You have more deaths per elderly resident than anyone else.
 
dad4 said:
There are statisticians who are good enough, but you refuse to listen to them
Click to expand...
By the way. Why do I continue to compare CA vs TX/FL? Well if we go back over the months and look at your posts...you were constantly telling us those states were a disaster. They were doing it wrong.

So I like to circle back so to speak.

I am very good with math as an econ undergraduate major.. along with being an econ grad student for a period of time. And later being an MBA. So I am good with math and stats. More importantly I am good with understanding what those numbers imply.

I also have a history minor which might be why I remember what you argued before. People tend to forget the past...
 
watfly said:
This is very disturbing and worse than I thought, but not totally surprising. I just can't believe they put it in writing. The following is an excerpt from an email to parents from a middle school in SDUSD about potential reopening:

SDUSD will still need to bargain with all seven of our unions before we will have any logistical details, schedules, or concrete dates, and as I receive additional information and details, I will be sure to pass them along to you.

This is beyond f'ed up. Our politicians need to get a pair and do like Reagan did with the air traffic controllers.
Click to expand...

Are they going to bring in the military elementry school teachers to replace them?
 
dad4 said:
Opened indoor dining in August, just before their big spike.

Relatively low cases before that.
Click to expand...
You aren’t telling the entire story. Indoor dining opened at 25% capacity in August. Restricted again in October. Utah in the same time period had indoor dining. Nm also restricted gatherings to not more than 5 and still had their out of state quarantined. Besides California and Hawaii their lockdowns have been the most rigorous in the west yet they ended where they did. The winter surge didn’t happen because they relaxed. It’s because everywhere went through a winter surge when it was their turn.
 
Grace T. said:
You aren’t telling the entire story. Indoor dining opened at 25% capacity in August. Restricted again in October. Utah in the same time period had indoor dining. Nm also restricted gatherings to not more than 5 and still had their out of state quarantined. Besides California and Hawaii their lockdowns have been the most rigorous in the west yet they ended where they did. The winter surge didn’t happen because they relaxed. It’s because everywhere went through a winter surge when it was their turn.
Click to expand...
Ps we now have a pretty good proxy for the effect of bars indoor dining and indoor gatherings have: Florida post super bowl. There has been no Super Bowl surge. The best you can say is perhaps it slower the rate of decline but the effect is not noticeable to the naked eye and you have to crack out the calculus to see the impact on the curve. While I have no doubt they are high risk areas the carry the risk of individual infection, they rank far weaker in the driver of the outbreak than seasonality, farrs, housing density or immunity levels and a far lower impact on death than how nursing homes are treated.
 
Grace T. said:
Ps we now have a pretty good proxy for the effect of bars indoor dining and indoor gatherings have: Florida post super bowl. There has been no Super Bowl surge. The best you can say is perhaps it slower the rate of decline but the effect is not noticeable to the naked eye and you have to crack out the calculus to see the impact on the curve. While I have no doubt they are high risk areas the carry the risk of individual infection, they rank far weaker in the driver of the outbreak than seasonality, farrs, housing density or immunity levels and a far lower impact on death than how nursing homes are treated.
Click to expand...
Why would you expect a super bowl surge in a state with high seroprevalence?
 
dad4 said:
Why would you expect a super bowl surge in a state with high seroprevalence?
Click to expand...

You always throw up something to excuse your priors. Because (for the same reason the 20% thresholds didn’t work) we know (from among others that Fauci guy but also from things like the various outbreaks on boats) that the herd immunity threshold is actually quite high (though I speculate it might be lower for any particular wave). Besides you were the one speculating that it would be stupid to gather for the super bowl and blow our progress...you didn’t qualify “in places like NorCal though I suppose places like Los Angeles Florida Texas and the dakotas with high immunity should be ok to bar indoor dine or house party”
 
Grace T. said:
Ps we now have a pretty good proxy for the effect of bars indoor dining and indoor gatherings have: Florida post super bowl. There has been no Super Bowl surge. The best you can say is perhaps it slower the rate of decline but the effect is not noticeable to the naked eye and you have to crack out the calculus to see the impact on the curve. While I have no doubt they are high risk areas the carry the risk of individual infection, they rank far weaker in the driver of the outbreak than seasonality, farrs, housing density or immunity levels and a far lower impact on death than how nursing homes are treated.
Click to expand...
Why?

There are people who do that for you. You and hound just refuse to believe them.

Though I am amused by his claim that an econ major and an MBA gives him the stats chops to argue biological science of any kind.

Kind of like me saying that, because the training wheels are off my bike, therefore I can drive a semi truck. Not really the same level....
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top